If thats what you think.Then its all the more pertinent.

Sports need 2020s vision as stream becomes a torrent
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/sport/nrl/sports-need-2020s-vision-as-stream-becomes-a-torrent-20191219-p53lkb.html

Strap in sports fans, because the decade to come will bring about the biggest changes to the way we consume sport since the introduction of television itself.

If you cast your mind back to the start of this decade, you most likely had a big-screen TV and, as a sports lover, a Foxtel box underneath it. The television would have been analogue and the figures on the screen slightly grainy.

During the decade, many traded these TVs for a digital version and the difference in clarity was remarkable. With digital came the streaming services.

The pivotal year was 2015: Netflix launched in Australia, Nine Entertainment introduced Stan and by the end of the decade, there was Apple TV, Amazon Prime, Optus (with the Premier League) ...

Channel Nine started the decade broadcasting its mainstays of NRL and cricket, and finished the decade with NRL and tennis. Seven had AFL and tennis, and finished with AFL and cricket.

Foxtel, via Fox Sports, had a few sports channels, but by 2019 had at least seven running at any one time, including Fox Footy, Fox League and Fox Cricket, plus ESPN 1 and 2, and Eurosport and Chelsea TV and on and on.

But, tellingly, Foxtel also now broadcasts almost all of this sport on a streaming service launched in 2018 called Kayo.

And that’s where we’re headed in the 2020s.

By the end of next decade, there will not be a Foxtel box in any house in Australia. Just like taxis were replaced by Uber and Kodak was monstered by digital phone cameras, television streaming will kill off the 25-year life of cable TV in this country.

And during this coming decade, it will have enormous ripple effects on all sports.

Starting at the top, the next round of NRL and AFL television rights negotiations will bear little resemblance to those of the past, when they were fairly predictable. It ran like this: channels Nine and Seven were courted by the sports and, eventually, one of them cut a deal with Foxtel (Fox Sports) and the spoils were divvied up and away we went for another five or six years.

Foxtel won’t quite be in the same position in the future.

 Its revenue base is decreasing rapidly as it tries to hang on to overpaying subscribers against cheaper streaming competitors. Even its own Kayo service, at $25 a month, undercuts itself. A basic Foxtel subscription is now about $50, but was well over $100 during the decade, especially if you never made a phone call to them.But without League and AFL, Fox Sports dies – and its bosses know it.For free-to-air networks, the big sports are loss leaders: millions upon millions to buy the rights and the same to fund the actual broadcast. It can’t all be recouped by advertising. But it does bring eyeballs to the networks, which then hope they watch their news service and are convinced to watch MAFS or My Kitchen Rules via the endless promos.

The common belief is that even the big sports are in for a haircut this decade when they renegotiate their broadcast deals.

To stave off the haircut, all sports are cuddling up to all three commercial networks and Optus and Netflix and Amazon Prime and Apple TV and

...Some may think the NRL, for instance, would be mad to broadcast its matches through Amazon Prime’s app.

This would be an extremely short-sighted view. Streaming apps could be big players. At $7.99 a month, an Amazon Prime subscription is nothing. By the end of next decade, I guarantee streaming services will have rights to big sports in this country because watching television through an app will be the norm.

Consumers won’t bat an eyelid. Teenagers now will be in their 20s by 2029 and their television brand loyalty will be non-existent.

I recently wanted to buy a golf club from the US. I found it on Amazon. They then said they would ship it to me for free if I trialled Amazon Prime. So I did.

The golf club arrived in three days from Kentucky and we, as a family, were watching Jack Ryan on Amazon through our Apple TV.

It’s happening and sports should not be afraid of change.Expect an American-style sell-off where one network won’t have it all.

Thursday night NRL could be on Amazon Prime, Friday on Channel Nine, Saturday on Kayo, Sunday afternoon on Channel Seven.

Second-tier sports, for want of a better phrase, are those most vulnerable: rugby union, the A-League, the NBL. The big players will offer them less, but maybe one of the newer players will present them with an opportunity they can’t resist.

Rugby finding itself being broadcast on Optus does not need to be as frightening as it seems.

Using streaming services doesn’t scare consumers – and it shouldn’t scare sports.

*By the end of next decade, I guarantee streaming services will have rights to big sports in this country because watching television through an app will be the norm."

By the end of next decade?

This bloke definitely has his finger on the pulse!

We don't need anyone to tell us what's guaranteed in 10 years.

We need to know what's going to be happening in the next 2 years.

A-League on Fox Sports
Melbourne City v Melbourne Victory 59,000
Perth v Newcastle 17,000
Wellington v Sydney 15,000

That melbourne derby figure of almost 60k really goes to show how exaggerated all those claims of everyone switching to streaming are. Look at the alarming drop off for the 2 games either side of it...40,000+ viewers must have watched the other 2 games on kayo!

Just goes to show people choose to watch what they are interested in

Hard concept for some to understand

BBL also swung between 220k on Saturday and 80k on the Friday.

For some perspective on the decline in football ratings and crowds,its worth checking out other sports to see what is happening there.
A simple search reveals this is a general trend across many sports.
In the US...NFL,NBA,NHL and MLB have all got the same problems.Albeit from a much larger base.
There are numerous articles from people analysing the reasons for the drop off too.
Needless to say the common cause is the increasing entertainment options available and more limited attention span of fans.
People engage with sports in different ways than they used to.
Her is a short excerpt,from a US  media analysis company.


There is a lot more commentary out there if you go looking.But it all is consistent with the rather large figures we get bandied around about streaming numbers,fan support for clubs and other digital media measures.
fans are still out there ,keeping in touch with football and other sports.They just do it in different ways than watching a game from start to finish.
Youtube,Facebook and Twitter are all common methods of keeping in touch with what is happening in games on,mobile devices.
The issue is how you quantify the new media engagement and make money from it instead of the tradtional methods.

Thats a different day though. Im talking about 3 A league games on the same day one after the other. 

Not really although it does show the importance of “cut through” these so-called marquee games have. 

Theres no doubt a section of football fans abandoned FoxSports and followed the EPL to Optus which hurt HAL ratings. 

Equally there’s no doubt that football fans have switched from Fox Sports to Kayo and that Kayo has attracted a cost-conscious football fan. That’s also hurt HAL ratings collected through OzTAM. 

Why the A-League Derby got such a spike compared to the other two games is anyone’s guess - especially when it was in free to air as well. 

But by the time you add FoxSports and ABC numbers together, and provision in something for Kayo/Telstra, it looks like the Melbourne derby had a good viewing result. 

Good to see that we can still give 60k  nudge.
The AFL usually has at least one game each round sitting at around 90k to 100k.

"Second-tier sports, for want of a better phrase, are those most vulnerable"- hopefully our global brand offers some competitive advantage

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comments - edo
2 HOURS AGO
The gamechanger is that for the first time in our history, the sports that traditionally held a monopoly with AFL in the South and NRL in the North along with Cricket, will lose that monopoly. While they will hold an advantage with the older demographic for a while yet they will eventually decline with no scope for growth and competition from global sports providers unless they can find a global and younger audience. Sports providers, like Netflix will grow by having a global audience, something the Australian sports just cant compete with the exception of sports like Football and Basketball.
RESPECT

What were the ABC numbers?

The Melb derby ratings while historically low,are quite high compared to averages lately.The question is why?
Presumably the viewers are 40k Victorians ,who had no interest in the other games. 

BBL FTA ratings dropped from 1.16 million in 2015/2016 to 542 million in 2018/2019.....A 50%drop in three years.
The new season has started with session one at 490k and session two at 580k.Last year averages fell to 400k by Jan 2019..
Are these rarings drops sports specific or part of a general sports malaise?

There is definitely a general sport malaise.

ABC numbers for saturday?

Just checked yesterday's foxtel ratings, we didn't make the top 20, cut out at 33k.
Cricket took the top 11 spots.
The Simpsons took the next 6.

That's impressive considering there were two cricket games.

https://tvblackbox.com.au/page/2019/12/24/cuts-continue-at-foxtel-as-eurosport-channel-confirmed-for-closure

The goal moving forward would be to ensure Foxtel has;

"got the minimum amount of content to make sure we keep and get subscribers. The path has been here at Foxtel where, for example, we've got every game of every sport. I think, going forward, we've got enough data to determine, actually 'how many games of each sport do we need to make our subscribers content and not over-egg it?"This might be a good insight going forward as to how they'll bid for their next rights to sports.For the a-league this will probably mean they keep 3 out of every 6 matches per round. Aiming to keep at least half the games per team. We're obviously not the biggest league but they still won't want to lose our subscribers.This could save them 20 to 30 mill a year with either optus or possibly another free to air picking up the other games.

Sorry crap formatting hopefully people can still read it

They definitely need Summer content, and after cricket, the A-League remains a consistent performer.

Would they pay the same amount to for all six games per round for another six years?  (meaning a small decrease in real terms, and per game)
They might.

I think you are underestimating the contraction Fox is undergoing.  My view is that everything points to Fox exiting the A League. 

Foxsports currently has 20 channels.Showing anything from Darts ,Life   saving ,NFL and Skiing to College basketball.Then there are old AFL and NRL  game channels 
The only serious summer time sports are Cricket and Football.There are two dedicated Football channels (Bein)and the channel that shows HAL and WL along with motor sports,golf and rugby.
If Foxsports are relying on big sports in summer.Then surely that means only cricket.Which obviously would make them a joke.
For Kayo to be viable all year they will need small sports.

Maybe, but I doubt they will want to lose a whole bunch of subscriptions.

I think they know they can hang on to them whilst having the rights to around half the matches that they currently have.

Foxtel are dropping Eurosport’s channel 

The question is how many will they possibly lose? If they see it as a drop in the ocean they won’t care. The product isn’t rating.

We will see mate, we will see. The bigger question is how does Foxtel expect to exist pumping all its money into sports that aren't growing and have no scope for growth?

I'm not privy to their numbers so hard to tell. But if you get a high uptake of a-league members (ie diehard fans of their team) subscribing just for the a-league foxsports would be losing revenue in the 10s of millions. That's not even counting the advertising. That's not even factoring non-members etc.