Ch 2 - Humble beginnings/inheritance and dodging the draft?

What is the charge? :D :D :D

https://www.news.com.au/technology/science/us-election-data-guru-bela-stantic-reveals-donald-trump-is-on-track-to-win-again/news-story/cc04c8525c3046c2387092d2cfaafa38

US election: Data guru Bela Stantic reveals Donald Trump is on track to win again

“I’m talking about millions of posts. Last month, I think I had 800,000 posts in one day.
“It’s not just about these 800,000, but it’s also that some posts have 20,000-30,000 likes.”

Herein is the problem. 
1) How many of the posts are from bots.
2) 20,000 - 30,000 likes across a population of 330 million is nothing 
3) Are the bot posts reflecting public opinion or shaping it. 

There is no doubt that Trump can win. He proved that 4 years ago. The big thing this time is not Hilary's emails but the death of RBG. Which side of politics will be energised by her death and turn out to vote.

Lindsay Graham.  "use my words against me"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kw8SSQHQitg

RBG's passing has shifted the conversation again. We had economy, COVID, BLM/Law & Order. Such a crazy year.

We all know they're going to nominate someone and rush it through. 

Which is interesting. Why bother if they think they're gonna win? 

There is no doubt Trump has the right to nominate someone. Whether they should get confirmed now is the question.

My problem though is 

1) People have already started to vote
2) In 2017 O'Connell dropped the requirement for 60% of votes for a Supreme Court Justice to a simple majority. This means that it is possible, maybe even likely, that  party hacks will be installed.

With Sen McSally in the Senate, four GOP defections could defeat a nomination, while a tie vote could be broken by Vice President Mike Pence. That could change if McSally is beaten by Mike Kelly who could take his seat if he wins on Nov 30. i.e. the maths changes to 3 GOP defections

At the moment Sen.Lisa Murkowski and Sen Susan Collins have said they will not vote to bring forward the nomination. Sen. Sherrod Brown has also said something similar in an op-ed. Kelly if elected would make it 4 with only 3 needed to defeat the nomination.

I would not be surprised if after this vacancy is filled, whoever wins, that before the last year of of the next cycle that the 60% rule is put back and that that rule only be be able to overturned by a 60% majority.

McConnell. I don't think the Dems will get the number of defections required. Court appointees is a core area in the GOP platform. This is just too juicy to pass up. 

As I understand it, even if the Dems won seats on November 3rd the Senate could still pass it in a lame-duck session before the new Senators take their seats in January.

If Kelly wins, because the contest is a special election to finish McCain’s term, the winner could be sworn in as soon as the results are certified  i.e probably as soon as Nov 30th. 

The thing here is also Covid-19. There is more than just pro-choice/prod life issues here.

The court is set to consider the future of the Affordable Care Act, which a coalition of red states are hoping to strike down — including the provision requiring insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions. If CJ Roberts (a conservative) continues as he has done before and side with the liberals this time, that 4-4 tie would leave the lower court ruling in place, which declared the law invalid.

Roberts may defer the decision until the full Court is constituted.

That then makes Covid-19 a major factor. By the time the election occurs more than 7 million Americans will have been diagnosed with Covid-19. Insurance companies can claim that many conditions were caused by Covid-19. That 7 million voters all have family and friends that vote as well. 

In other words the Supreme Court balance can also be a motivating factor for Dems this time as well.

SC is already Conservative stacked, not sure why they're shitting their pants.

-PB

Because Roberts CJ is still applying the law (see the recent DACA decision). 

You realise that betting odds are effected by the number of bets placed on the various outcomes?
Lots of bets being placed on Trump to win will lower the odds being offered for a Trump win.

That is true but already 3 GOP senators are flagging they don't want a vote until the new senate is convened in January. They are Sen.Lisa Murkowski, Sen Susan Collins and  Sen. Sherrod Brown.

Trump will definitely name someone 

If those Senators follow throw  (big if) the nomination will not be heard before the election. That will definitely energise the GOP but may well conversely also energise the Democrats because of the ACA. 

McConnell will try to bring it on during the lame duck sittings.
1) If the GOP hold the Senate after the election and Trump wins the presidency then it will be pushed through.
2) If Biden wins but has a hostile senate then we get to see if the 3 senators stay true to their word - especially if they remain the crucial votes.
3) If Biden wins and the Dems win the Senate then I think those senators will honour their commitments.

Yes and no.  Odds are generally reflective of the relative possibilities of outcomes.  Bookmakers walk a fine line between setting odds that entice gamblers but don't cost them money if they lose.

Hence for $1.00:  Trump is paying $1.91 and Biden is paying $1.91.
.  

Biden has 212 electoral votes almost certainly. Trump has 71. That means 255 are up for grabs.  
I can get Trump up to 179 fairly easily but that still leaves 147 up for grabs.
Throw in the RBG effect which no-one really knows how it will land and you get why it is even money.

The other spanner is now the Dems are considering running impeachment hearings to stall. It would be interesting to see it happen.

The other point with the Supreme Court and the election is a major pointer to the Republicans winning the presidency. Does Trump opt for Barbara Lagoa from Florida to try to lock in Florida or does he go to Amy Coney Barrett who is the Evangelicals choice.

Would be Amy, he's already won over the Evangelicals, pandering to them more won't help and he needs to counter Bloombergs advertising spree in that state.

-PB

Dems should pander to Trump and get him to run it like the apprentice. 

So Lagoa - to win Florida

Enjoying a meal.

Has to be. If Trump doesn't win Florida and its 25 votes he's pretty much sunk, surely.

Was it non-succulent or succulent?

Anyone interested in the machinations of us politics should watch Planet America on the ABC.

They ran a bit last night on appointments to the courts.  Mind boggling stuff.

McConnell blocked 100+ appointments in Obama's term so if a Republican was elected they could stack the courts.

The corruption, and overt corruption at that, in America is sick.

Watched Vice last night.

I know its only a movie, and a movie that borders on black comedy at that, but it really does highlight what an evil puppeteer Cheney was, responsible for the diabolical mess in the middle east. 

All these things seem to have been forgotten in the age of Trump.

Yup and they hypocrisy lol

PA last night shows why they're in such a mad rush to get that justice in place, throw in Trumps comments about the mail in votes and he's angling to basically not go if he loses

"When asked about whether he will allow a peaceful transition of power if he loses the election, Trump doubled down on his anger toward mail-in ballots. “Get rid of the ballots and there will be a continuation. The ballots are out of control.”"

-PB

Yep - I can't think of a Republican that lost Florida and won the presidency. Clinton did it for the Dems but not in my memory for the Republicans