Hmmmm, intersting, I have the US CDC and a peer reviewed research paper supporting my opinion

I wear a mask because I am mandated to wear one. The nanosecond the laws are rolled back is the nanosecond I roll back my usage. I dont wear them for any other reason

I wear a seat belt because they save lives and if they rolled back the laws I would still wear one

Before laws were made mandatory there was estimated to be 60% voluntary usage during outbreaks. L:ast stats were only 50% of Victorians were wearing them despite them being law. If you think thats a positive thing then I can understand why you would support mask laws for the sake of mask laws when there is no viral activity

Surprised no one here has commented on the vaccine rollout targets the PM detailed last friday.

From my previous posts I was wrong. So far it seems the Government is only setting targets for 16+ and its only 70%

70% of 16+ is 56% of the whole population which is easily doable this year.
80% of 16+ is 68% of the whole population which is doable by this year and definitely by March next year (when next election is likely held)

As I said in my previous posts, I expect vaccine rollout to speed up a lot over next 2 months then start to plateau around 60-65% first shot mark and then daily progress will slowly decline. Picking up maybe if there are any outbreaks that cause lockdowns. Supply will not be an issue come mid october.

Of course there are lots of complications with these targets that are already being disputed and politicised far and wide and will concentrate the public's minds as we get closer to reaching them and I'll honestly be shocked if the Fed government strictly sticks to its plan and convinces state premiers to do the same.

Issues:
Vaccinating under 16. Govt has already approved vaccines for 12-16yos (far quicker than I was expecting) and today announced 220,000 of those kids in certain categories will now get it. Will these kids be now included in targets? If not, what happens if we reach those targets before reaching those sick kids? Do we wait longer?
Go onto any social media platform or comments section of a newspaper and you'll see lots of comments screaming blue murder if we dont vaccinate all the kids before opening up. But parents are more reluctant to vaccinate their kids, especially under 12s and this would slow down the vaccine rollout a lot. As I said in a post a few weeks ago, once adults get vaccination rates up then the main spreaders will be kids and we can see a sneak preview of this in QLD today where most cases are under 10. The risk of death and long covid in kids is incredibly low (327 of 650,000+ deaths in US have been under 18) but in Australia we wouldnt allow one child death. So I expect schools to be one of main outbreak centres in next 12 months.  Anyway - vaccinating 70% of the whole population is a big ask, 80% I'd say almost impossible within 12 months (unless really tight measures on encouraging vaccines - companies forcing employees etc, vaccine passports for internal activities)

State variability: So what happens when ACT and NT get to those vaccination targets a month or 2 before WA and QLD. Will everyone in those states calmly wait till those states catch up? I can see this being a major issue even today QLD CHO has ruled out AZ for under 40s, something which is really turbocharging NSW's vaccination rates. And on the targets themselves and on issue of vaccinating kids I can see one or two state premiers falling to public pressure and demanding the targets to change to include the whole population. And then we have seen from WA already a reluctance to stick to those targets no matter if they are reached. State premiers are already at each others throats and I expect this to keep ramping up to unbearable levels. Too many giant egos involved.

Stage/Phase 4: so for a complete return to normal overseas travel, which is stage/phase 4, the government hasnt actually set a target vaccination rate yet. Expect this to be an issue as more and more people get vaccinated.

Exit Wave: Everything in this plan is the lead up to when we all allow overseas travellers to come here. I cant think of any scenario - only allowing people from "safe" countries, strict home quarantine, rapid tests etc, which still wont lead to substantial case outbreaks and therefore likelihood of deaths. As more and more us here get vaccinated more and more of us will be getting extremely impatient to bring those plans forward especially as we are already an international joke in how far behind we are. But at the opposite end, the fears of cases and deaths when fully opening up will put all governments under intense pressures to hold the line or even raise the vaccine  target levels. Even if its gradually allowed, setting the different rules will be a shitshow.

Other possible issues:
Polls: Vaccine hesitancy maybe higher than we thought. I could be totally wrong but it occurred to me on the weekend that maybe the polls are skewed when people are polled about vaccinations like with Trump and Morrison in election polls. That is, being an anti vaxxer is seen as socially unacceptable so people will hide their true views/intentions with pollsters and we only find this out once we are really needing that final 10-15% to get us to targets.
Sabotage: Maybe if some of the people arent happy with the vaccine targets - with say not including their kids or fears of the possibility of an exit wave - maybe they delay getting their vaccines the closer we get to the vaccine targets as a sign of a silent personal protest (of course having a date to open up would solve this but Fed govt plan specifically rules this out)
Election: Maybe they'll promise a few trial programs for home quarantine for o/s travellers but there is no way the Fed govt will risk an exit wave going wrong before the next election. And I cant see the ALP taking that risk either. And with the election probably not going to happen till March I cant see any of us going o/s soon.
Economics: On one hand the economy was going well before NSW lockdowns and unemployment will probably still trend down after these lockdowns end. But big business is quickly losing its patience with the vaccine rollouts and any delays with targets will cause a backlash amongst many of them, especially as they see a brain drain of skilled migrants (and some aussies) sick of this bullshit
Variants: Well if a new variant comes along that in any way significantly reduces effectiveness of vaccines we are nearly back at square one and I cant see us getting local mRna capability before 2023. And what are the chances of no variants between now and next march with infection numbers worldwide at highest levels for some time.

Conclusion: I want borders to open as much as everyone. I might be wrong, maybe the public pressure to open up creates a political u-turn in our politics and we open up in the next 6 months. Maybe we adopt rapid testing and this gets us out of our problems. Maybe the Morrison govt holds its nerves on these targets, the vaccine rollout speeds up in Sept and Oct and they go to an early fed election to avoid fallout from angry voters wanting to open up.  But if I was a betting man I can see us getting to 60% fully vaccinated (16+) by end October, then a slow grind with WA and QLD dragging the chain to get us to 80% (16+) by january or february. By then one of the premiers will have likely caved to political pressure to demand its 80% of everyone not just 16+ and there is a shit fight amongst society and probably protests over summer. If we have an election in march or later next year I reckon there is a big issue with us having another covid winter in 2023 because we will be in a political quagmire whether to open up or not (especially if there is a new variant). I'm going to decide in Nov/Dec if this is more than likely and if so I'll head overseas to escape.

Sorry for long post. Would be very interested in everyone's views on what they think of the targets. Are they reachable? Will govts "move the goalposts"? Will we open up before the end of the year? Happy to bet a jug of beer with you all that we wont allow fully open international travel this year.

Why do we always go back to the mask debate? It's pointless.

Well it was on Breitbart so there's that too.

No you haven't

You've taken a study that recommends that cloth masks are not the best in high risk environments and twisted that to say mask wearing in general is completely ineffective. 

The only thing that proves is that you are a liar.

 

Dont argue with me, argue with the medical authorities making those statements in official publications.

Also I know you have shown to be a bit slow on numerous occasions but as I stated before, the topic is cloth masks, not medical masks.

Here's an interesting question for you, if cloth masks are effective, why arent they recommended for use in medical applications? Surely the covid found in hospitals isnt that different to that in Coles? If cloth masks protect Joe Public why wouldnt they protect Dr Nick?

I know it is difficult for kids when their mommy takes away their security blanket, but it is part of growing up. After the shock you may actual read the information like an adult and understand the cloth masks you are using do very little and because you and pretty much everyone else in the general population dont follow strict infection control procedures when handling them, they do even less.

This is a real world situation hitting every Australian every day. People managing their own mental health is critical for getting through an unprecedented situation. Being able to jump, kick, scream and yell in a cave is better than suppressing thoughts and feelings because it isnt popular opinion of the select few

People like myself and AJF have been hit with 12 consecutive months of pointless (as you correctly pointed out) mask laws with no end in sight. If you want to be helpful then simply agree if you dont have a strong opinion on the other side of the argument because nothing can be more helpful or reassuring than somebody knowing they arent alone or being irrational in their suffering

Face masks might seem like a tiny insignificant thing that cost a few cents and are a piece of cake to wear, but they do take their toll when regulated by force in month after month after month. Especially when piled on top of everything else

Australia needs to scale back its response because it is absolutely ridiculous and they arent saving anything for an actual emergency

Can you elaborate upon why masks are a mental health issue? I can understand how prolonged lockdowns may be an issue, but I can't see it being the same issue for masks. Inconvenient - yes, but I don't understand why it is more than that.

Imagine being a high school kid with a 30 minute bus ride to school. Every day you have to don a mask on the bus ride, wear it in class for up to 4 hours, and wear it home. 5 days a week, however many weeks a year. Day in day out, no reprieve, and there is nothing you can do about it. Same for those who go to work

Imagine being a single where you legally cant have anybody over and you have to wear a mask at all times outside. You are literally prohibited by law from seeing anybody's face

If you live in a supported household with a family / partner / kids or whatever thats great. But there are 500,000 Victorians living in a single household that have no meaningful emotional engagement. No smiles, no comfort. And for those who dont live in a supported household (sexual assaults and domestic violence is up by the way) they are also trapped. And I havent even begun talking about those with mental health issues, or somebody borderline suicide who wants to go for a walk to unwind but first has to muzzle themselves

Australia has never been about laws for the sake of law. If you think face masks are a small inconvenience then dont stop wearing one. Take the current Victorian mask rules and do them for the rest of the year and all of next year too

Face masks in our situation are just pointless. Not only that but there is irrefutable evidence a % of the population breaks social distancing when wearing masks, or that people are more inclined to catch up behind closed doors than go out when there are mask laws in place

They arent anywhere near as important and effective you think they are. Those experiments everybody is referring to wouldnt even pass a year 7 science class. For the balance of controlling an outbreak and giving people some kind of options face masks are an easy thing to simply make optional. Australia could easily get the same outcome with 4 or 5 restrictions than 30 or 40

In NSW, there is no outdoor mask requirement (except for the specified LGAs), but in Victoria, there a general mandate but it seems like there are a lot of exceptions: https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/face-masks-when-wear-face-mask. To say that you are "literally prohibited by law from seeing anybody's face" is a bit of a stretch. I agree that it's frustrating because it seems to go on indefinitely, which is why we should have pushed hard for vaccinations. 

As for single households, there is the "singles bubble", so there is the Government is trying to manage that but all of those issues, including the ones relating to mental health are connected to the lockdowns, not masks. For lockdowns, I agree that these are major problems that the Government needs to provide support for. 

At the end of the day, you don't think masks work at all. I don't think anyone is able to convince you otherwise. Again, it's pointless to discuss. 

231 days of lockdown for Melbourne since 1st April 2020. And no end in site. Does anyone actually think this is sustainable in terms of mental health?

It's absolutely not sustainable for many reasons, including mental health. We should have all been vaccinated almost a year ago.

231 days of lockdown for Melbourne since 1st April 2020. And no end in site. Does anyone actually think this is sustainable in terms of mental health?

Sorry but thats not true. There are 3 or 4 general exceptions for face masks including under 12, mental health, eating / drinking, or strenuous exercise. Aside from that Victoria have added working alone. Thats it. Nobody else should be allowed to be outside of their immediate household without a mask

Secondly the single bubble doesnt exist outside of a lockdown. When laws permit meeting each other outside then there is no need for a single bubble. Victoria currently prohibits any household visitors and lets people catch up outside (with masks). So aside from eating / drinking, single people by the letter of the law are not allowed to see faces (rules extended by 1 week today)

I never said masks dont work at all. They are vital in health care situations. They can also cut 10% of overall transmission for countries with high levels of infections but no other mandates

Australia already has quarantine, contact tracing and social distancing with 90% compliance. Face masks dont add anything to that especially since they arent regulated to any kind of standard in the general public. This is a highly contagious variant that is even forcing people to rethink the structure of restaurants. There is no chance the average Joe is wearing the correct 3 plied face mask, applied by the handles, no touching the cloth, single use only only to prevent fabric stretching. Even then you end up with something that is 30%-70% effective when they should be social distancing anyway which is closer to 100%