As you said. anti-vaxxers in Australia are not a real problem. Neither is 'vaccine hesitancy'. What has been, and continues to be a problem is the supply of vaccines. Yes if you can go to be a big city hub you may have reasonable access to an appropriate vaccine. But outside of that i.e. around 10m Australians the wait times are abysmal. Then when you allow travel to those areas and infections occur in low vaccinated areas with lesser healt facilities you are asking for trouble. 

Yes we need to open up- and that may be at 80%. But it can't be (in NSW) at 85% of Syd and 50% of the rest of the state. If Gladys only wants to look after Sydney she should run for Lord Mayor. Her responsibility is for the state and she needs to start considering all of the state.

I am assuming the massive amount of hospitalisations (and as the Saturday Paper reports they are massively under reported) are from when cases were in the 100s and it;s the lag. So we will see the effect pf the 1200-1500 number cases in the next week, and week after. This could be a massive massive disaster unfolding if not careful. 

Absolutely. I have quite a few relatives in the health sector and it is stretched now in NSW and from reports in Vic as well. 

Why are we talking about 70-80% when most of Australia is tracking between 30-40% (including NSW). The message should be clearer. Stop talking about 70-80% as far a s 'freedoms' are concerned except to say we won't have them in states that have Covid-19 until the whole nation is at that measure. The pressure needs to be on vaccinations across the nation and given the fact that efficacy dwindles after 6 months or so we need to be looking at that supply now.

For all the talk of the economic cost the simple truth is that if we hadn't skimped at the beginning and
1) built proper quarantine facilities
2) ordered sufficient & timely vaccines when we could have
3) set up our own manufacturing of mRNA vaccines

we would have been opened up months ago and any os Australians would be home. For all the bleating by Treasurer Josh and Morrison about the economic cost these were things under their control and they decided to go cheap which us cost Australians big time in both health and economic ways.   
 

Yes and no

The virus mainly impacts people over the age of 60. That much has always been known. In fact, only 0.6% worldwide is listed as in a critical condition. The reason for 10% hospitalisations in Australia may be a combination of low vaxx numbers but also "precautionary" hospitalisations on both sides given the amount of paranoia about the virus. Once the hysteria dies down then there could be a lot more home care options and hospitals can be left for those who truly need it

If you take out the over 60 Cohort this wouldnt be much different to the swine flu. Having 80% of the 18-60 population vaccinated on top of that reaches the realm of over kill. Its only the 20% of the over 60s that we really need to worry about - and we are seeing that in Sydney today

The thing we can both agree on is the daily numbers will be high because there will be more apathy so it will spread uncontrolled. Peak figures are hard to predict but there may well be 5000-10000 a day in Sydney alone. Also given that only 3% of the world has been infected (albeit with controls in place) it may take 2 or 3 years before we even see 10% in Australia so its something that will be consistent for a long time

I dont see this as a disaster to be honest. But given the hysteria over 1 case and the amount of programmed paranoia for 18 months I think we can very well turn it into one. We could see truck loads of otherwise healthy under 12s who are mildly sick being dumped into hospital systems by hysterical parents. Thats the biggest risk IMO

3 kids in ICU atm in NSW on ventilators. Pre-existing medical conditions but that could mean anything. Very sad

Also a growing number of people dying from it at home. So much for "precautionary hospital admissions" :(

A story on that and why it's happening 

https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/09/04/exclusive-covid-19-hospitalisations-three-times-higher-than-reported#mtr

I think NSW may have peaked with its rate of vaccination and things will taper off/slow down. Having said that, we might get close to 90%. I'm guessing up to 88% by the time the rest of the country gets to 80%

McJules - you are dealing with very very small numbers

If society was set up to stop 3 children from dying then lockdown would be permanent and society would resemble something like the matrix. 2000 people in Australia die from the flu each year alone. As I said, the last 18 months has been sensationalising every case and part of opening up is a reality check around that. Of the 3 children that died from COVID, many more children have either died from COVID related suicide or ruined their futures by lack of a quality education. You're missing the bigger picture

As for hospitalisation figures, what we are seeing today wouldnt even be 20% of what we'd be seeing after we open up. If NSW has already reached capacity, after 18 months of pandemic planning, then thats just poor

People are going to choose whether to hospitalise or not. You cant use a small data set of those who died at home and project it across the population as the normal. If 0.6% of people worldwide are listed as critical then why did Victoria claim 10% of people require hospitalisation?

Anti vaxx, pro mask, fear of opening up. Its all the same sensationalised crap. If you were to chart the number of children who have died this year and list the cause you'll find that COVID, even in an open society, is not the least of your worries

How pathetic is the vague nature of targets. The treasurer released a statement from businesses that said we should open up at 70-80% (because who  better at dictating public health policy than the stock market)...so just a few million people grey area - which one is it? Do these same businesses have a 10% grey area on their budgets or profit statements to shareholders? 

Yeah after your early adopters and those on the fence it's going to be hard to convince a lot of others. 

Gladys appears more happier to throw NSW residents to the slaughter and over work hospital staff more than making a simple limo driver wear a mask:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-06/nsw-records-1281-covid-19-cases-five-deaths/100436406

We're dealing with very small numbers here, far more are dying from suicide etc. Doesn't matter if they were preventable or not.

There's over 1000 in hospital (3 times as many on 'hospital care' at home), 172 in ICU and 72 on ventilators from self harm in nsw in last few weeks?

The number of suicides last year were ~3000. Most people who commit suicide would most likely be under the age of 60. And last year the most prominent thing in everybody's life was the pandemic

If you take 500 of those to be COVID related as a generous estimate, how many COVID cases are required before 500 people under 60 have died? Given the data is about 25 in 50000 thats about 1 million cases in the under 60s population before COVID is deadlier than the lockdown for the under 60s

This is all speculative mathematics but it illustrates a real point. There is no point trying to prove that this disease is seeing wave after wave of under 60s in hospitals anymore than trying to prove that the vaccine causes extra limbs to grow

1000 people in NSW currently in hospital after ~30000 infections, and only 172 in ICU. And this is when there is only 40% of the population with double vaxx when opening up is after 70 or 80

There has to come a point when being completely hysterical over a single strain of one flu serves no merit. Its like Australia has nothing else to do

So that means there was more in the year before covid? No diminishing the mental health toll it can take but there does not appear to be a significant rise/

Thats just pure statistics and also assumes suicide rates in Australia each year are a constant

Reactive suicide is based on the current environment and if the pandemic is the current environment then the suicide is a direct link. You can argue whether that person would have killed themselves anyway for a different reason if there wasnt a lockdown but thats all speculative. Its also hypocritical to label a COVID death as any death where the person has the virus in their body, but then dismiss suicides directly linked to COVID as an annual statistical inevitability

The fact is 3000 people killed themselves last year and the best guess is a lot of those would have been under 60 and due to COVID. No need to dismiss it because it doesnt suit your narrative

If you go to this site and change the chart to "number" you'll see that a year on year comparison is pointless because its not steady from year to year. So it doesnt make sense to look for a surge from 2019 to 2020 to work out if COVID has played any part. Suicide isnt driven by any constants where as car accidents (for example) might

https://www.aihw.gov.au/suicide-self-harm-monitoring/data/deaths-by-suicide-in-australia/suicide-deaths-over-time

No all those people have "pre-existing conditions" (like 40% of the australian population has) so it's fine for them to be very sick.
Again it doesn't matter if some of them didn't have a chance to be vaccinated in time or that spread could have been prevented with better quarantine measures. COVID was inevitable and we had to get it now. Now that NSW has it, every other state must also open up as soon as they hit 70% so we can all flip the coin on whether 70% of eligible over 16 year olds is the right vaccination rate or not to be able to keep a lid on things.

Suiide spike in Japan was about 3 years after Fukishima

Thats problem with two people arguing extreme opposites is that both view points end up satirical. Both sides can sarcastically argue the other and any message will be lost. I dont think anybody has said NSW should open up today or that Australia should open up before everybody at risk has had a chance to get vaccinated. There is no point chopping my viewpoint into extreme chunks and arguing against them sarcastically because nobody understood your point

The fact is the over 60s are at the most risk. The fact is 177 people are in ICU out of 24000 current active cases. The fact is the rate of deaths for the under 60s is significantly low. Not only that but there are countries out there with the same species as us with a lot more data that we can learn from in terms of potential hospitalisation and death rates in a more open society

If the under 12s dont have a chance to get vaccinated before opening up then does it matter if the under 15s havent? Or the under 18s? Or the under 25s? The line being drawn isnt scientific or based on data. Having 70% of the 18-60 cohort vaccinated when the death rate is 25 in 50000 is already cautious enough without wasting time wondering if it should be 75% or 80%

The thing to remember is that anything can be bought online. You can also study online, school online work online and even keep connected online. If people have decided that COVID is the point that makes it no longer worth the risk leaving the house, that option is available. There is no need for everybody else to be in lockdown. Opening up is a choice like vaccination. Nobody is going to be forced to go outside

immunity waning and the possible existence of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) 

ever wondered why israel despite being top of the pops for vaccination still has surging cases ?
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.25.21262601v1.full-text
ADE is thought to be a big trouble in the development and use of COVID-19 vaccines

read for yourself end enjoy and discuss

As gladys wishes! Or Murdoch or the IPA whoever she's doing it for :) 

What the hell are you talking about?

The irony of ending a statement that you opened with 'They're just pure statistics' with that is too much,

I thought u loved stats 

So nsw is going to get the Lions share of the vaccines from Poland England and Singapore.  Despite reassurances from the PM it'll be on a per capita basis . 350 k missed for Victoria and over 100k for qld. 

Prime Minister of Sydney...

When you said there should be a surge in suicides from one year to the other if COVID had any impact that is just a statistical projection that isnt tied back to anything real. Just like when people expected exponential growth on our airplane arrivals last year. Its the flaw of Australia's modelling and why we dont have a handle on this thing. Thats what I meant by "its just statistics". Numbers that dont relate back to anything

If you have a look at the number of suicides in the link I posted there is no pattern or nothing constant driving it. Nobody can say what suicides will look like next year or what they should have been this year. The 3000 suicides last year were tied exclusively to the circumstances of last year so you cant deny the restrictions / lockdown / isolation has caused more deaths among the young Australians than the virus

You know this because you have stopped trying to argue a point and gone straight to attacking the words I used

The opposite of what you would do if somebody is suicidal is separate them from their friends, take them out of school or work, break down their family structure and impose financial stress, take them out of team sport, impose curfews and restrictions, introduce fear / panic / anxiety, cut them off from emotional expressions etc... Also suicide isnt always reactive, sometimes its progressive. There are seeds being planted today. In the same way 1 limo driver can be the catalyst for 1500 cases a day, so too can somebody losing their first year of school or high school be the catalyst for a failed life and lead to problems later. I have already dubbed this generation as the COVID generation

Man, woah....when did I say anything like that? I think you need to chill out a bit. 

We are all in this together! 
Just as he jets off in a private jet paid for by us to cross state borders for a family visit....