Yes, and we're seeing that roadmap emerge. Could it be more transparent and concrete? Yes? Should it have happened faster? Also yes (although Covid understandably put a pause on things). But it is happening, and I would have thought SMFC fans would be the first to celebrate.

Ordinarily, you'd be right.
Sport is not, and has never been a normal business.
If you look at APL Co's  first set of financial statements, you'll see just how dependent everything is on selling license fees (about 45% of first year's revenues).
If that weren't enough, you now have an equity partner whose only focus is a return on investment - you reckon they are going to worry about re-selling licenses at premium prices?
Every time a license is sold, or re-sold, say for $20 million, the new equity partners are pocketing $6 million of it straight off the bat.

>>Instead of moaning and acting like an absence of automatic pro-rel is anathema to football (when the team you support happily played in the same kind of closed shop league for 27 years), why not be happy about the progress that has been made recently, given that: This "whataboutism" is a constant excuse in my opinion though mate... Just because the NSL was a dogshit league doesn't mean repeating the mistakes of the past is acceptable now. 

It just reeks of hypocrisy when you claim to boycott the A-League due to the absence of pro-rel, but obviously didn't do so when South Melbourne was the beneficiary of the same system.

>>a) there is now unequivocal commitment by the governing body to starting a national second division - Hmmm are you sure, it sounds like platitudes and 1/2 promises to me. A lot of "we hope" statements rather than "we will do" to me.

Not seven days ago James Johnson said: "We said it will happen and it will happen". That sounds more like a "we will do" than a "we hope" statement to me.

>>b) a timeline for a 2023 start seems to be emerging - as was 2020, and then 2021 and then 2022 ... lets see huh?

You're right, we should have started the nationwide second division in March 2020. What could have possibly gone wrong?

>> c) once an NSD is in place for a few years the momentum for pro-rel will likely become irresistible - irresistible to who exactly? The APL clubs like WU who have openly stated at their time of bidding that they would not be viable in a second division? Your dreaming bud.

They said they were not interested in bidding for a spot in an NSD, which is their prerogative. It would be a different matter if they get relegated and have the opportunity to bounce back up again.

>>Sure the format being discussed might not be to your liking, but in that case you should focus on lobbying for a better format, which is what I imagine the AAFC (including SMFC's representatives) is doing right now. - and being completely ignored which is not surprising.

It sounds to me like the FFA is taking the NSD proposal seriously as a strategic imperative, is undertaking modelling to find the best format, and has had in-person meetings with AAFC representatives. That doesn't seem like being ignored. I think the logic has changed since the unbundling from the A-League. Until then the FFA had a vested interest in the top level comp, now it can focus on the tiers below. Given the states run the NPL comps, an NSD would actually give it a league to have oversight of, which it doesn't have at the moment (or the NSD could also go autonomous, but this would be hard at semi-pro level).

>>Nobody on this forum is against the principle of pro-rel, and everyone has the best interests of football in Australia at heart, there are just different views on how viable it is and when and how it could be implemented. Are you sure about this last statement? Every-time I hear excuses about how it is not financially viable I look to countries with 4 or 5 divisions in their soccer pyramid that have a GDP of 50 cents and yet still manage to do it.... Money is not the problem (or not the ONLY problem I should say) its the willingness to be inclusive that is... I applaud your wish towards pro/rel, and many others on here, but lets face it it is a pipedream at best. South Melbourne has been effectively been told to "get fucked" for the last 17 years by FFA and we are (I am sure you can concede) one of the better run and funded NPL clubs..... If we are not good enough for the sensitive "mainstream" AFL/NRL audience then what is? Its new licenses from now on mate and if you are all happy with that thats fine.... 

Those countries with 4 or 5 divisions don't have 25m people spread over 7m km2. Remember Australia is not really a contiguously populated country, but rather 5-6 isolated settlements and their catchment areas, with essentially nothing in between them. This is reflected in the history of its sporting leagues, which were suburban comps until only a few decades ago. There is no other sport in the country that has a nationwide second tier, so football will yet again be a pioneer when it introduces one.

The roadblock for pro-rel at the moment is there is nothing to be relegated to, save for a state-based NPL which would basically be an abyss for any demoted A-League club. How would the Jets function if they have to start playing in NNSW NPL1 against Lambton Jaffas and the like? What about Wellington, where would they go? That's why you need a functioning, viable NSD before this discussion can even take place.

I know pro-rel for A-League clubs it's a bit like asking turkeys to vote for Christmas, but that's why I think the push will most likely end up coming from the big clubs (especially the big two in Sydney and Melbourne). Particularly once you get expansion to clubs 13-16, they will probably start tiring of being saddled with poor-performing smaller clubs having a permanent spot at the table, and keeping them down with modest salary caps and other equalisation measures. Better to rotate the teams at the bottom of the table and water down or even abolish the salary cap to ensure the bigger teams will never be threatened with going down. It's a bit realpolitik-ish but that's how I see it panning out, and the bigger and better run NPL/NSD clubs can be the beneficiaries by having a bite of the A-League cherry every now and again.

Wait, do you have access to APL's financial statements? Care to share them?

As for the licenses, there are two different issues: one is the cost of a license to operate in the A-League. This only occurs with expansion or to replace a club that has gone bust. The former will only happen with teams 13-16 (since expansion beyond 16 is unlikely, as the APL themselves have said). I would imagine that these slots are pre-factored into the equity of the league. The other will be avoided as much as possible since it's a terrible look for the league, hence why they have bailed out the Jets after Martin Lee walked away from it due to financial issues. 

The other is the cost of the actual club. Clubs are bought and sold all the time in both closed-shop and pro-rel leagues, so introducing pro-rel wouldn't negate this. Essentially the APL clubs picked up Newcastle for free (which also happens a lot in more "traditional" leagues with financially addled clubs, e.g. in England) and hope to on-sell it at some point when both the league and the club have healthier finances.

You could argue that the risk of pro.rel would lower the potential value of a club, but this only affects the clubs in danger of relegation (so the bigger clubs would remain immune from it), and could be offset by the general benefits of public interest in the pro-rel battle and being able to rotate clubs at the bottom of the ladder, with an automatic mechanism for releasing poorly performing clubs and rewarding better run clubs from lower tiers. This is not to say the APL necessarily sees it that way yet, just how the proponents of pro-rel could argue for it from a commercial and not just a footballing standpoint.

Sorry can I just confirm that you believe that a push for promotion/relegation will come from the actual franchises themselves? I think that's one of the most remarkable things I've ever read.......

Agreed.

Much like South Melbourne did in the NSL, I think they will push hard to keep the shop closed.

No, I think the push will come from below. But the ones that will be amenable to it will be the likes of Sydney, City, WSW, Victory. It will be their pretext for having a more free-market league system in place, including transfers, abolishing the cap and getting rid of clubs that aren't performing. It will be the likes of CCM and the Jets that will fight it as they will be the most likely candidates for relegation. But on the other hand they should recognise that a spell in a lower division and a rebuild can actually be better for a club's long-term health than prolonged stagnation at the bottom of the top flight.

any idea when the fixture list comes out

At this stage, the only thing JJ has promised is a "conversation".

The APL cannot reject pro/rel, as part of the unbundling the FA retained the power to enact it, which given they have no league to manage makes sense why they are interested in it 

While that is true, I think I remember reading somewhere that the APL has the power to specify the requirements of clubs being promoted into the A-League (eg: financials, venue specs, etc). So technically they cannot prevent P&R from being introduced, but they could potentially make it very difficult for a 2nd div club to ever actually succeed in being promoted.

Firstly the Liga MX only recently changed "Access" (a term James Johnson uses) to the first division, a competition being muted as an example for Australia!

So we are in agreement that Liga MX P/R and "Acess" is not a good idea for Australia. Please let JJ know this.

My only comment regarding Liga MX is that more people watch Liga MX in the USA than watch MLS.

Well no, there is no road map at this point in time.
Only a commitment to a National Second Tier.

A roadmap has more detail than merely a commitment.

Drawing a long bow there, but whatever.

The key is for the FA to act as an honest broker and regulator for the whole game.

I will say, this is more so now than at any point in football time that I can remember since the 1970's. Still a way to go.

Yes agree, but not only from below, but from everywhere.

When APL has a 16 team comp, no more room for more "Licences".
When a National Second tier with 16 teams with P/R from NPL
A Transfer System in place.
There will be no other choice "for the good of the game" to have P/R between ALM and NSD.

That's pretty much my point. The A-League isn't going to announce pro-rel tomorrow, but once they've maxed out expansion (to 16) and the NSD has bedded down for a few seasons, it will basically become a fait accompli.

The actual decision to implement it is in the hands of FA, but of course they would be unlikely to do so against the wishes of the APL in order to avoid (another) civil war in the game. APL may well be able to decide licensing requirements, but this couldn't be different to those required for existing clubs otherwise lawsuits would ensue (and probably be won), so they can't demand 50k stadiums and $100m in the bank.

Yes, I absolutely agree that Liga MX has a garbage system. The A-League should be looking to Japan for how to transform a "closed-shop" league into a unified pyramid. If I ever met JJ I would tell him this!

But you tried to imply that the popularity of Liga MX in the US was because it was "authentic" football and MLS isn't. Which is wrong. The main reason is because of the large number of people of Mexican background in the country, who in general are much more football-obsessed than the average American.

I am seriously interested why/how you both believe that the APL structure would benefit in any way from accepting a system were their business interests would be in any possible jeopardy of being "devalued" by being relegated to a league outside the top flight. In no imaginable future will the Aleague(s) ever be a league where - salary cap or no cap -  a club can buy its way out of relegation trouble at the next transfer window, we just dont have the wherewithal to fund that. Why would a club like Victory who could have a poor season despite being a "big club" ever agree to a system where they would be relegated???? I sincerely dont see why a consortium of investors would EVER care about the "good of the game".  The key is in your statement about licensing requirements df, By the time the Aleague grows into a 16 team league I would forecast the value of a participation license into the Aleague would (to appease the equity partners ROI) have grown to 50-60 million based on the similar trajectory of MLS licensing. If that is the case there is NO POSSIBILITY of any member's run, not for profit existing community club ever being promoted keeping the economic apartheid going for perpetuity.  If the only barrier to promotion is performance then, yes we have a future, but reading the writing on the wall this is not happening EVER.

Charlesworth is one of the strongest supporters of promotion of the owners, has been for years.

This makes sense if anything. Not trying to be mean towards your club but It is understandable that a club struggling financially would much rather the option to be relegated to a competition where the cost burden is much less and have a chance to consolidate and build back up for a tilt at the top league at their own pace rather than  just *poof* disappear into the night like Fury or GCU and that license sold to the next bidder. 

He's also one of the strongest supporters of scrapping the salary cap.

Then why did Japan go from an autonomous J-League to a pro-rel system?

If and when the A-League goes to 16 teams, there will likely be a good chunk of teams who will basically never have the chance of winning the comp, even with things like a salary cap in place. So what will they have to play for? Maybe to squeeze into the bottom of an eight-team play-off system? Pro-rel would immediately create high-stakes for the bottom half of the table. If they don't want to risk their investment then all they have to do is put a good team on the park.

And I wish I shared your optimism about club licenses being worth $50-60m in the foreseeable future. I think it's already clear that WU and MFC overpaid significantly.

Hard to argue with this.
The clubs share in the sale of all future licenses, which start at $20 million.
The new equity owners end up getting back half of their investment from the sale of the next two licenses!
Any time a license is either handed back in or taken off them, they get to sell it a second or even third time.
There is only in the license because it's a closed shop.
Why will any of them willingly choose to devalue these licenses to being worth nothing with an open P&R system?
You can't even imagine that as a possibility in your wildest dreams.
You even hear people saying, oh, just promote a club the next time an owner goes broke.
Why on Earth would they choose to do that if they can get $20 million a 2nd or 3rd or 4th time (unless the NPL club is putting its hand up to pay that).

@16 just split the top 8 into it's own league as the A+ league with the bottom 8 remaining as the A League and have p&r between the two following season. New clubs would still have to buy licence for A League, keeps the FA out of clubland and not touch the unwashed npl.

Your having a laugh I get it but I reckon this isn't too far from the truth and what the final,model will be.... Plastic as far as the eye can see...., And we'll be shaking our heads going remember the good old days when the Soceroos used to at least qualify for World Cups? 

The NSD will be a part of the APL before P/R occurs for a range of reasons, but there are a couple of paths to this outcome and you have identified one. Not my preference, but the APl won't be promoting and relegating into a division is doesnt have very strong controll over and it will be fully professional also. The PFA and APL know this and JJ suspects it. 

Exactly..... Sort of like the European Super League proposal everyone here pretended to hate last year.......

That is also why I am very supportive of a full ladder. 

Even with a salary cap, there is a sizable gap between the big clubs (MC, Sydney, WSW, MV) and the bottom teams, leaving aside blips like MV's catastrophic collapse the last couple of years. When the league goes to 16 teams this gap will only get bigger. CFG doesn't need to spend 30-40m to ensure dominance, just a couple of million in players spent wisely will make them a class above teams like the Mariners, Jets (let alone Wollongong, Hobart, etc.) who are just trying to keep their heads above water. This is why I think the big clubs will eventually want to be freed from the shackles of the cap so they can at least try to compete in Asia without being head down by the need to keep the smaller clubs competitive in the A-League, and this will be one of the forces allowing pro-rel to be adopted. It's cynical but that's the reality of football today.