your comprehensive olyroos preview


your comprehensive olyroos preview

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Barca4Life - 9 May 2024 4:14 PM
After reading through the comments on here is there a way this could be improved in the future? Especially that these tournaments are played in non FIFA windows I think this could continue to be a challenge for the Olyroos.

Very hard to prep when then they had no practice games going into the first game after travelling to the other side of the world, but we have to question the coaching and selection of players.

It's very important they find solutions quickly as Asian football has raised its level, probably higher that it's ever been since we joined in 2006 given the depth that is there now.

I think to be honest the only room for growth is a better coach and a lead in camp at least for local based players. Get a club coach with experience

Unless the tournament goes into a fifa window, getting better players just means more players unavailable. Apparently 15 euro based players were blocked by their clubs this time (!)

Not sure how much influence we have over the afc to change the qual format to put matches in a fifa window

Having said all that i think arnolds two successful qualification campaigns in asia in 2008 and 2018 show a good coach is enough of a boost to qualify


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After reading through the comments on here is there a way this could be improved in the future? Especially that these tournaments are played in non FIFA windows I think this could continue to be a challenge for the Olyroos.

Very hard to prep when then they had no practice games going into the first game after travelling to the other side of the world, but we have to question the coaching and selection of players.

It's very important they find solutions quickly as Asian football has raised its level, probably higher that it's ever been since we joined in 2006 given the depth that is there now.
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robbos - 7 May 2024 10:29 PM
Monoethnic Social Club - 7 May 2024 10:14 AM

I'm chilled. Portugal in Euros, Derby promoted, SFC in the semis of the A-League, Lots of Young Aussies also doing well in Europe, Mariners winning an Asian Cup. 
Lots of football to watch.

Seems like you've got everything sorted. Enjoy.
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Monoethnic Social Club - 7 May 2024 10:14 AM
robbos - 7 May 2024 7:10 AM

Hahahahaha c'mon man, youve gotta agree that was a golden come back? hahahahahahahhahaha Don't be so serious. lol

I'm chilled. Portugal in Euros, Derby promoted, SFC in the semis of the A-League, Lots of Young Aussies also doing well in Europe, Mariners winning an Asian Cup. 
Lots of football to watch.
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robbos - 7 May 2024 7:10 AM
Monoethnic Social Club - 6 May 2024 5:09 PM

Dream on.  Enjoy watching.

Hahahahaha c'mon man, youve gotta agree that was a golden come back? hahahahahahahhahaha Don't be so serious. lol
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Monoethnic Social Club - 6 May 2024 5:09 PM
robbos - 2 May 2024 9:14 PM
I know, they really could... Hope the Portuguese redeem themselves at this years Euros :)


Dream on.  Enjoy watching.

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Bunch of Hacks - 6 May 2024 8:57 PM
Quicky - 4 May 2024 9:54 PM

Agree.. madness not picking our best player. Has potentially jeopardised the development of the entire '24 crop as the olympics are important to help our boys get moves 

Huge distraction for the players too, prepping for a major tournament and the only media is on who is not there
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Quicky - 4 May 2024 9:54 PM
We didn't help ourselves score by not picking our best forward. Coaching, team selection, injuries, returns from injuries all contributed as well.

Agree.. madness not picking our best player. Has potentially jeopardised the development of the entire '24 crop as the olympics are important to help our boys get moves 
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grazorblade - 4 May 2024 4:54 PM
Decentric 2 - 3 May 2024 8:46 AM

Yeah if u are getting your shots in transition you often have higher quality chances. So 14 out of 18 is no surprise. To miss so many shots on target or near misses (very few row zs it seems) needs an explanation. I favour mentality over luck. It would be interesting to know if there is a club side that had 3 games in a row like that

Not sure why you pose a question like that, nor if you really want an answer.?...  Ill just allow the endless cycle to continue..
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robbos - 2 May 2024 9:14 PM
Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 3:57 PM

Yeah not good to lose to Jordan, some ex European Champion lost to Georgia, so things could be worse.
I know, they really could... Hope the Portuguese redeem themselves at this years Euros :)


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grazorblade - 4 May 2024 4:54 PM
Decentric 2 - 3 May 2024 8:46 AM

Yeah if u are getting your shots in transition you often have higher quality chances. So 14 out of 18 is no surprise. To miss so many shots on target or near misses (very few row zs it seems) needs an explanation. I favour mentality over luck. It would be interesting to know if there is a club side that had 3 games in a row like that

Good question?

I remember John Aloisi coaching Melb City/Heart having an extraordinary bad luck playing counter attacking football. They went so close on frequent occasions, without scoring.
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Quicky - 4 May 2024 9:54 PM
We didn't help ourselves score by not picking our best forward. Coaching, team selection, injuries, returns from injuries all contributed as well.

Irankunda has been in red hot form too.

What a mess the selection process was.
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Bunch of Hacks - 4 May 2024 7:33 PM
How many times did we hit the frame? I counted at least 4 inc 2 that were tipped onto the frame.. very unlucky 

Glad you got the same.

I counted 3-4, and that was looking at replays.

Wasn't sure I was right?
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We didn't help ourselves score by not picking our best forward. Coaching, team selection, injuries, returns from injuries all contributed as well.
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How many times did we hit the frame? I counted at least 4 inc 2 that were tipped onto the frame.. very unlucky 
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Decentric 2 - 3 May 2024 8:46 AM
grazorblade - 2 May 2024 5:17 PM

I also dug up shots on target and close misses.

A close miss is defined as missing the goal by circa 50 cm or half a metre.

AUS V JORDAN

Shots on target: Aus 5, Jordan 2.

Close misses : Aus 4, Jordan 1.



AUS V INDONESIA

Shots on target : Aus 8, Indonesia 1 ( goal).

Close misses: Aus 7, Indonesia 5.



AUS V QATAR

Shots on target : Aus 10, Qatar 1.

Close misses : Aus 8, Qatar 4.


TOTAL  - close misses or shots on target: Aus 42, opposition 14.

This is a ratio of 3:1 favouring Aus. It also equals 75% Aus, 25% Opposition, for shots on target or close misses over the three games.

However, of the low number of opposition shots, 14 out of 18 total number of shots were close misses or on target. 





Yeah if u are getting your shots in transition you often have higher quality chances. So 14 out of 18 is no surprise. To miss so many shots on target or near misses (very few row zs it seems) needs an explanation. I favour mentality over luck. It would be interesting to know if there is a club side that had 3 games in a row like that
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https://youtu.be/e2refaykZgs?si=HQmD7DAtXHQRcnmQ

Japan Uzbekistan final highlights. Won't spoil yet. 
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grazorblade - 2 May 2024 2:44 PM
Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 2:01 PM

Stats are important for diagnosing a problem

If we have 60 shots including a penalty and dont score with some really good chances in those 60 shots it shows the problem is with finishing not chance creation (the socceroos against indonesia had about the same number of shots as goals by contrast)


Well said!

Valery Lobanovski, the great Ukrainian coach of Dynamo Kyev, and national Russian team coach, was the progenitor of using stats to analyse facets of play all over the pitch. Stats  don't depict the full picture, but coupled with comprehensive match  analysis criteria stats,  can be invaluable. VL along with Rinus Michels and Viktor Maslov, was also the progenitor of Pressing concepts in football.

  As I've alluded to  before, SAF and Arsene Wenger, pus Sam Allardyce, were the first coaches  to use  stats in the EPL. The former duo had resounding success. The stats gave them an edge according to esteemed football writer, Simon Kuper, in his book Soccernomics, as all EPL coaches now use stats as an accompanying tool to analyse matches played by their teams.

If VL, SAF or Arsene were analysing the  Aus U 23s, from the 60 shots to 18 stat, there would be a massive emphasis on the training ground  for shooting exercises -

 crossing and heading, crossing and getting to the near post and shooting,

crossing and getting to the far post and shooting,

interspersing near and far post and central targets,

dummy runs with one player trying to lead defenders to track him whilst another creates space,

 central attacking interplay and shooting,

 dribbling from three different left, central and right shooting positions,

 central  set pieces and shooting,

in match simulated scenarios of  4 v 4 or 5 v 5 with attack playing defence.

 Initially even 5 attackers v 3 defenders in the final third of the  pitch would be likely.
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Barca4Life - 2 May 2024 5:04 PM
robbos - 2 May 2024 2:36 PM

I don’t think it’s relevant that you need world class players to break down and finish off a deep block defence it’s more to down to the type of players you have and how to use them.

The problem is Australian coaches in most cases are not good at coaching against deep blocks, it makes us predictable at this level. 

With all the data I've recorded for these 3 games, sadly, we broke down some pretty organised and compact defences in this Olympic qualifying tournament, but just couldn't score. 

As Grazor has sagely pointed out, the senior Socceroos have recently struggled to  break down defences as easily as the Olyroos, but of the lower number of chances they create, they convert a higher percentage of them to goals.

In the Olyroos lead up games, Aus were banging them in. 

The use of stats works both ways though. At senior level when we played South K in the senior Asian Cup quarter final, even without recording the stats I found it depressing how  South K dominated possession and territory, whilst arguably the few times we played balls into the   pen box, we had some good chances to score. 

Also, in one of the Aus U 23 practice games against Saudi Arabia U 23s, I   did not record data, but I remember  Saudi had 4 good chances to score in the first 10 mins - a bit like the Socceroos did against Iran in Melbourne in 1998.

Yet Aus U 23s beat Saudi  3-0! 

Saudi  made some awful defensive mistakes. Later Aus may have  dominated the game, but it is rare for any team to get 4 good chances in the first 10 mins and fail to convert all of them. I think the  3-0 result  totally flattered Aus U 23s in that game.
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grazorblade - 2 May 2024 5:17 PM
 id put kuol and toure around mid league 1 level with toure slightly higher. Im not saying these are world class finishers, but they are a lot better than 0 goals from 60 shots

Btw I recall maybe 2 shots going into row z and a lot of gettable misses. Im skeptical of that claim

I also dug up shots on target and close misses.

A close miss is defined as missing the goal by circa 50 cm or half a metre.

AUS V JORDAN

Shots on target: Aus 5, Jordan 2.

Close misses : Aus 4, Jordan 1.



AUS V INDONESIA

Shots on target : Aus 8, Indonesia 1 ( goal).

Close misses: Aus 7, Indonesia 5.



AUS V QATAR

Shots on target : Aus 10, Qatar 1.

Close misses : Aus 8, Qatar 4.


TOTAL  - close misses or shots on target: Aus 42, opposition 14.

This is a ratio of 3:1 favouring Aus. It also equals 75% Aus, 25% Opposition, for shots on target or close misses over the three games.

However, of the low number of opposition shots, 14 out of 18 total number of shots were close misses or on target. 





Edited
Last Year by Decentric 2
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localstar - 2 May 2024 6:59 PM
Our failure in a qualifying tournament doesn't matter - decentric and razorblade are here to spin it away with stats.

Not sure about after 32 years of failing to qualify for the world cup, we have qualified for the last 5 world cups and having had the best world cup ever in the last campaign.
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Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 3:57 PM
robbos - 2 May 2024 2:36 PM

Hahahha I would be REALLY worried if Nunez or Salah couldn't score against Indoensian defences. HAHAHAHAAHAHAHA

Yeah not good to lose to Jordan, some ex European Champion lost to Georgia, so things could be worse.
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Our failure in a qualifying tournament doesn't matter - decentric and razorblade are here to spin it away with stats.
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Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 5:06 PM
grazorblade - 2 May 2024 4:43 PM

Arrrggghhhh wtf is "normal rate?" how can you measure an expected outcome when the level of defence they are trying to play through is totally different at club level than it is at international level... As Muz mentions 90% of the "shots" where row Z (that was my observation too) lets say we are being overly critical and of the 60 "shots" 20 were on target... thats still 0 goals for 20 x shots..... thats gotta mean poor technique, I dont know how else you can argue it?

If thats not the conversion rate they see at club level or in previous olyroos games then id say poor mentality or bad luck rather than poor technique. Poor is relative mind you, i dont think their finishing technique is world class, but more than good enough to score more often than they did from that many chances. Id place brook and milanovic at roughly slightly higher than silvera last year who played around 1700 minutes for a championship club this year and id put kuol and toure around mid league 1 level with toure slightly higher. Im not saying these are world class finishers, but they are a lot better than 0 goals from 60 shots

Btw I recall maybe 2 shots going into row z and a lot of gettable misses. Im skeptical of that claim
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grazorblade - 2 May 2024 4:43 PM
Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 4:01 PM

66 shots is only 6 more shots than the olyroos had all tournament. If we score 8 goals we aren't complaining. So option one can't explain the poor finishing just in this tournament since they have finished well in the a league and in previous olyroo games. 

Not sure what you are comparing to to say 9 in 66 matches. Looking at the front four from the recent match between aston villa v chelsea there are collectively 73 shots from 385 matches. That is one goal per 5.3 shots compared to milanovic who is one goal per 7.3 shots. Additionally Milanovic outperforms his xg which is only 4.5. A Kuol underperforms his xg (which is 8 for 3 goals), Brook also overperfoms his xg which is 5.4

So I don't think poor finishing technique can explain zero goals. If they got their normal rate then you are probably getting 5-8 goals. 

Bad finishing technique alone

Arrrggghhhh wtf is "normal rate?" how can you measure an expected outcome when the level of defence they are trying to play through is totally different at club level than it is at international level... As Muz mentions 90% of the "shots" where row Z (that was my observation too) lets say we are being overly critical and of the 60 "shots" 20 were on target... thats still 0 goals for 20 x shots..... thats gotta mean poor technique, I dont know how else you can argue it?
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robbos - 2 May 2024 2:36 PM
Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 2:05 PM

2 different issues here, producing players with the ability to pierce defences & scoring against Indonesia & Jordan.
We don't produce enough world class playmakers or wingers with the ability to break down defences, something we are working on.

As for not scoring against Indonesia or Jordan, maybe this is because the players are Liverpool fans & watching re-runs of Nunez & Salah.
I think the Olyroos, like Liverpool has been creating chances & not scoring.

I don’t think it’s relevant that you need world class players to break down and finish off a deep block defence it’s more to down to the type of players you have and how to use them.

The problem is Australian coaches in most cases are not good at coaching against deep blocks, it makes us predictable at this level. 
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Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 4:01 PM
grazorblade - 2 May 2024 2:44 PM

Umm 9 x goals from 66 shots is "good" shit that would get most strikers fired around the world mate. thats the point..Some of these so called "statistical shots" were row Z clangers and point to very poor technique ... I would definitely NOT rule out option #1..... 

66 shots is only 6 more shots than the olyroos had all tournament. If we score 8 goals we aren't complaining. So option one can't explain the poor finishing just in this tournament since they have finished well in the a league and in previous olyroo games. 

Not sure what you are comparing to to say 9 in 66 matches. Looking at the front four from the recent match between aston villa v chelsea there are collectively 73 shots from 385 matches. That is one goal per 5.3 shots compared to milanovic who is one goal per 7.3 shots. Additionally Milanovic outperforms his xg which is only 4.5. A Kuol underperforms his xg (which is 8 for 3 goals), Brook also overperfoms his xg which is 5.4

So I don't think poor finishing technique can explain zero goals. If they got their normal rate then you are probably getting 5-8 goals. 

Bad finishing technique alone
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Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 4:01 PM
grazorblade - 2 May 2024 2:44 PM

Umm 9 x goals from 66 shots is "good" shit that would get most strikers fired around the world mate. thats the point..Some of these so called "statistical shots" were row Z clangers and point to very poor technique ... I would definitely NOT rule out option #1..... 

Yes a better stat would be 'shots on target' vs 'shots altogether'.

In the matches I watched (only the 2 I admit) 90% of them were into row Z.




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grazorblade - 2 May 2024 2:44 PM
Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 2:01 PM

Stats are important for diagnosing a problem

If we have 60 shots including a penalty and dont score with some really good chances in those 60 shots it shows the problem is with finishing not chance creation (the socceroos against indonesia had about the same number of shots as goals by contrast)

So why is the finishing poor? Either
1) they are poor finishers
2) they were poor finishers during the tournament
3) bad luck

3 is hard to rule out, bad luck across a bunch of games can happen and 3 is unfortunately a small sample size. 1 i would rule out on the olyroos finishing in 12 matches before the tournament and at club level. If defense in the a league is bad that means they will get more chances in the first place, but the goals dont magically change size if the defence is bad.

At club level milanovic has 9 goals from 66 shots, brook has 9 from 54, kuol has 5 from 42 etc.  So i would rule out option 1

Option 2 is probably the most likely and this could be caused by poor mental prep

Umm 9 x goals from 66 shots is "good" shit that would get most strikers fired around the world mate. thats the point..Some of these so called "statistical shots" were row Z clangers and point to very poor technique ... I would definitely NOT rule out option #1..... 
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robbos - 2 May 2024 2:36 PM
Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 2:05 PM

2 different issues here, producing players with the ability to pierce defences & scoring against Indonesia & Jordan.
We don't produce enough world class playmakers or wingers with the ability to break down defences, something we are working on.

As for not scoring against Indonesia or Jordan, maybe this is because the players are Liverpool fans & watching re-runs of Nunez & Salah.
I think the Olyroos, like Liverpool has been creating chances & not scoring.

Hahahha I would be REALLY worried if Nunez or Salah couldn't score against Indoensian defences. HAHAHAHAAHAHAHA
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