Of the u17 groups that made the world cup since entering asia, only two became regulars for socceroos in degenek and kye rowles. Almost none of the u17s who qualified for wcs even became a league standouts let alone australian standouts compared to others the same age

Story courtesy of this tweet

https://twitter.com/DeanRosario/status/1787367198316716099

Is this normal or are we really bad at identifying which u17 players will go and make it? Does anyone know how other ranked 20-40 u17 squad selection fares?

thats a very astute  observation

And to answer my own question by looking at a few 2011 squads

France, netherlands and japan were good at selecting players that would do well

Mexico, argentina and uruguay were poor like us

I vaguely remember a big discussion on here that this because at that age it's all about nepotism and those who can afford to play? They're not that great at football and eventually fall away? Those who come through for the full national team are via club coaches and eventually they rise to the top. Sure they're teens but our U17 of the past were too busy focusing on their hair and cool moves on the ball than any kind of proper tactical understanding and implementation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_FIFA_U-17_World_Championship_squads#_Australia

This team had a lot go very high.

Let me check if we have a relative age effect problem

The average birthday for our 2011 squad was late april. Will do the others in a tick

2015 is late may average bday and mid april for 2019

It does look we still have a relative age effect

Interestingly the 1999 squad had an average bday of early june, so they didnt have a relative age effect. They did brilliantly in the world cup but i disagree they had good careers apart from scott mcdonald

Thnx for the research. Josh Kennedy was in the squad too. I suppose comparatively a number made an A International appearance or carved out a career abroad at least. 

It's true that the 2010s were bloody rough. We should've picked up on this that the best generally come through that bit later. 

Going to look back at the 90s

1993
average birthday: early august
Number of socceroos: 2
Coach with club experience: yes (les)

1995
Average birthday: mid august
Number of socceroos: 4
Coach with club experience: yes (les)

1997: dnq

1999: 
Average birthday: june
Number of socceroos 5
Coach with club experience: yes (les)

2001:
Average birthday: mid april
Number of socceroos 4
Coach with club experience: yes (ange)

2003:
Average birthday: mid april
Number of socceroos 3
Club with club experience: yes (ange)

Looks like the only time we didnt have a relative age effect was under les who seemed good at selecting future roos. Ange was better at selecting future roos than the current mob but did get fooled by the relative age effect

Les must have been ahead of his time!

Looked at our recent u17 squad at the u17 asian cup. Average birthday mid march!!!

Recent u18 side for the marbella tournament average bday is mid april and the last u20 side we put together for the u20 asian cup has an average birthday of mid may

That's pretty annoying since taking the relative age effect into account when scouting is pretty basic stuff and we have been remedial in this area for 25 years

To be honest I always judge u20 and u23 as better indicators for results and national team level players, u17 and younger should be mainly about development and not a true indicator given they still growing as players.

It doesn’t mean we should not take it seriously given the exposure it gives to players against the best players of that age group at world cups and in Asia, in way I get why FIFA made the move to put the u17 World Cup on every year to increase the exposure for young players all over the world starting in 2025.

As the father of a (talented IMO) end-of-year born kid who's gone through a lot of selection pain from a young age, all of this makes complete sense to me.

sorry to hear that!

If elite coaches in australia have this problem no doubt further down the ladder we have worse problems

It is very common.

It is why I don't pay too much attention until the U 23s.

Then  there are others who  don't blossom until quite late.