Fifa could decide All Whites' fate
11:58 AM Monday Jun 21, 2010
The All Whites' future at the World Cup could be decided by a Fifa bureaucrat picking a name out of a hat.
The farcical "drawing of lots", as Fifa calls it, is dependent on the next round of games after the All Whites' 1-1 shock draw with defending champions Italy.
New Zealand and Italy are second equal in group F with two points each, while Paraguay leads the group on four points and is almost assured to go through with all sides set to play one more match.
According to Fifa's World Cup rule book (page 48), if two teams are equal on points at the end of the group stage, and have scored the same amount of goals, then it comes down to goal difference between the two teams.
That would not separate New Zealand and Italy after their draw this morning. Fifa would then look at which team had scored the most goals at the group stage.
At this stage, Italy and New Zealand have scored the same amount of goals - just two in two games.
CCID: 31621
Fifa's last ditch effort to separate the teams is "drawing of lots by the Fifa Organising Committee."
But the result could still be decided by football.
The All Whites' next match is against Paraguay on Friday morning (2am NZT). If they win, then they go to the top of the table with five points. A draw will see them move to three points and second on the table. A loss and they remain on two points and their fate will be decided by Italy and Slovakia.
If Italy beat Slovakia, they go to five points and knock New Zealand out if New Zealand draw or lose their game.
If Italy draw then they will be out if New Zealand win. They will go through if New Zealand lose, or will be booking an anxious date with a Fifa hat if they draw.
But there is a third team in the mix - Slovakia - who could still go through if they beat Italy and we draw or lose to Paraguay.
Once the All Whites fans have digested this mish-mash of "what-ifs", who will they be facing at the next stage?
The winner of the All Whites' group will face either Japan or Denmark - dependent on results in that group.
The team that comes through second in the group - or gets their name pulled out of hat - will likely face the Netherlands who are all but assured of topping Group E.
What happens next?
All Whites v Paraguay, Italy v Slovakia (both games 2am Friday NZT)
*The All Whites will advance to the second round if they beat Paraguay and Italy win or lose to Slovakia.
* If they lose to Paraguay they will be out of the tournament
* If the All Whites and Italy both draw their future will be decided by goals scored, goal difference or drawing of lots by the Fifa Organising Committee.
Scenario 1: All Whites beat Paraguay, Italy beat Slovakia
All Whites (5 group points) and Italy (5 points) advance to second round.
Scenario 2: All Whites beat Paraguay, Italy lose to Slovakia
All Whites (5 points) and Paraguay (4 points)/Slovakia (4 points) advance*
Scenario 3: All Whites beat Paraguay, Italy draw with Slovakia
All Whites (5 points) and Paraguay (4 points) advance
Scenario 4: All Whites draw with Paraguay, Italy beat Slovakia
Paraguay (5 points) and Italy (5 points) advance
Scenario 5: All Whites draw with Paraguay, Italy lose to Slovakia
Paraguay (5 points) and Slovakia (4 points) advance
Scenario 6: All Whites draw with Paraguay, Italy draw with Slovakia
Paraguay (5 points) and All Whites (3 points)/Italy (3 points) advance*
Scenario 7: All Whites lose to Paraguay, Italy beat Slovakia
Paraguay (7 points) and Italy (5 points) advance
Scenario 8: All Whites lose to Paraguay, Italy draw with Slovakia
Paraguay (7 points) and Italy (3 points) advance
Scenario 9: All Whites lose to Paraguay, Italy lose to Slovakia
Paraguay (7 points) and Slovakia (4 points) advance
*To be decided by goals scored, goal difference or drawing of lots by the Fifa Organising Committee.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=10653423&pnum=0