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adrtho
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Quote:LONDON (AP) — Standard & Poor's rating agency on Monday downgraded Russia's credit grade by one notch to junk status, citing a weakened economic outlook.
The agency dropped the rating to BB+ from BBB- as it sees the country's financial buffers at risk amid a slide in the country's currency and weakening revenue from oil exports.
"In our view, the Russian Federation's monetary policy flexibility has weakened, as have its economic growth prospects," it said.
Russia's economy has been hit hard by the double impact of weaker prices for its energy exports as well as Western sanctions.
The Russian currency tumbled on the downgrade, dropping some 7 percent to about 68.5 rubles to the dollar.
Standard & Poor's said that Russia's financial system is weakening, limiting room for maneuver for Russia's Central Bank. It said the bank "faces increasingly difficult monetary policy decisions," while also trying to preserve incentives for growth.
The Russian economy is expected to contract by 4 to 5 percent this year for the first time since President Vladimir Putin took the helm in 2000.
Capital outflows, which averaged $57 billion annually during 2009 to 2013, soared to $152 billion last year. "Stresses could mount for Russian corporations and banks that have foreign currency debt service requirements without a concomitant foreign currency revenue stream," the rating agency said.
Russia's Finance Minister Anton Siluanov sought to play down the anticipated move, saying it reflected the rating agency's "excessive pessimism." He emphasized the Russian economy's strong fundamentals, such as high level of hard currency reserves, trade surplus and low level of state debt.
"These undoubtedly are Russia's advantages in the current macroeconomic conditions," Siluanov said in comments carried by Russian news agencies. "There is no reason to overdramatize the situation."
Prior to the announcement, Putin had a meeting with Cabinet members on anti-crisis measures. He said the government should focus on cutting spending, keeping inflation under control and making sure that the country doesn't waste its hard currency reserves. http://news.yahoo.com/p-downgrades-russia-credit-rating-junk-182742071.html
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adrtho
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Capital outflows from Russia, and no ability raise money out side of Western countries, means Russia economy is collapsing faster then anybody realize
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mcjules
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So many threads in ET by people with axes to grind :lol: At least they're all pretty transparent I guess!
Insert Gertjan Verbeek gifs here
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jlm8695
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:lol:
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adrtho
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one of the best geopolitical financial arbitrage bets , i think is , to bet that Ukrainian government doesn't default and bet that Russia government does
market have Ukrainian government default risk at a higher risk then Russia government ...but what many have missed, is Ukrainian government will do everything that western Governments want. it will comply to all financial controls that IMF and other organisation place on them..Ukrainian will get a continuous money assistant (just in time) to keep Ukrainian government from defaulting
Russia, on the over hand, can not find the money it need, it can not rasie money inside russia, and it may find even great sanction place on it..
Risk, is how much war Putin will make,
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Carlito
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:lol: seriously ardtho stop just stop. You're becoming a wamakie with your idiotic posts
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adrtho
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MvFCArsenal16.8 wrote::lol: seriously ardtho stop just stop. You're becoming a wamakie with your idiotic posts this is Extra Time, where idiotic are the norm go read "List 10 men you would bang if you were gay." topic Edited by adrtho: 27/1/2015 09:00:21 PM
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paladisious
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:lol: Pathetic. Some of us are watching the Semi Final.
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Carlito
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adrtho wrote:MvFCArsenal16.8 wrote::lol: seriously ardtho stop just stop. You're becoming a wamakie with your idiotic posts whats wrong with being gay?? this is Extra Time, where idiotic are the norm go read "List 10 men you would bang if you were gay." topic Edited by adrtho: 27/1/2015 09:00:21 PM
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adrtho
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MvFCArsenal16.8 wrote:adrtho wrote:MvFCArsenal16.8 wrote::lol: seriously ardtho stop just stop. You're becoming a wamakie with your idiotic posts whats wrong with being gay?? this is Extra Time, where idiotic are the norm go read "List 10 men you would bang if you were gay." topic Edited by adrtho: 27/1/2015 09:00:21 PM the topic not about being gay ..it's if you was gay, what 10 guys would you bang :p a night club i once owed , was a very big supporter of LGBT , now in Australia,a this is no big deal, but for a Eastern European city, it little bit bigger deal ...
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Carlito
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How did you turn this into russian anti gay legistlegislation? Also s&p were the only agency to downgrade america to a - . If other angencies follow suit in downgrading russia then you have domething to talk about
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adrtho
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MvFCArsenal16.8 wrote:How did you turn this into russian anti gay legistlegislation? Also s&p were the only agency to downgrade america to a - . If other angencies follow suit in downgrading russia then you have domething to talk about well, it wasn't my decision, I let my staff and manger make this decision, as they was more likely to be beating up :lol: but i supported what ever decision they made...it was a arty type club
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Carlito
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Wtf are you on about this time??
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adrtho
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MvFCArsenal16.8 wrote:Wtf are you on about this time?? night club i once owed , and how it was a very big supporter of LGBT the decision to supporter LGBT , was taken by my night club staff and manger...
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RedshirtWilly
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Adrtho is Sam Jong-Un
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Carlito
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adrtho wrote:MvFCArsenal16.8 wrote:Wtf are you on about this time?? night club i once owed , and how it was a very big supporter of LGBT the decision to supporter LGBT , was taken by my night club staff and manger... and your point?? If you have one .
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adrtho
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MvFCArsenal16.8 wrote:adrtho wrote:MvFCArsenal16.8 wrote:Wtf are you on about this time?? night club i once owed , and how it was a very big supporter of LGBT the decision to supporter LGBT , was taken by my night club staff and manger... and your point?? If you have one . i'm not anti gay
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Carlito
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How does standard & poor downgrading the rouble connect to russrussia's anti gay legislation? ? Seriously thats a very long bow
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adrtho
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I think Russian economy is collapsing much fast then many expected..Today Russia refuse to fund Transnistrian for $100m , this is not a positive sign for those other break away regions
alot of the talk from davos , still have western business analyst believe the Russia war with Ukraine will not heat up, and that all side will come to their senses..but i don't believe Putin will back down, and i'm sure the USA will put for more severe sanction, maybe even cutting Russia off from Swift banking system
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adrtho
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MvFCArsenal16.8 wrote:How does standard & poor downgrading the rouble connect to russrussia's anti gay legislation? ? Seriously thats a very long bow I haven't talk about r Russian anti gay...you brought up Russia anti gay legislation will not have any effects on Russia economy collapse...
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adrtho
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Quote:Credit-default swaps on Russian government bonds rose seven basis points to 598, according to data provider CMA. That’s near the highest level since 2009 and signals a 34 percent probability of default within five years, the data show . http://www.businessweek.com/news/2015-01-27/russian-corporate-bonds-fall-after-s-and-p-downgrades-nation-to-junkI think Ukraine at about 60% to default , so Russia has alot more room to move up to that level
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Slobodan Drauposevic
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Russia won't default lol. Going to make a shit load on forex doe.
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adrtho
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Draupnir wrote:Russia won't default lol. Going to make a shit load on forex doe. if you're really betting, good luck, I do think your wrong :lol: but you're opinion is worth more when you have something at risk
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aussie scott21
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This is great. Im sick of seeing Russians everywhere when I go on holiday these days.
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Slobodan Drauposevic
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scott21 wrote:This is great. Im sick of seeing Russians everywhere when I go on holiday these days. I'd say avoid Thailand then, but there's a million Swedes there anyway :lol:
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aussie scott21
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Draupnir wrote:scott21 wrote:This is great. Im sick of seeing Russians everywhere when I go on holiday these days. I'd say avoid Thailand then, but there's a million Swedes there anyway :lol: I dont blame them, it's cheaper to have a holiday in Thailand than it is to have one in Greece from here. Last time I went to Amsterdam for 3 nights it cost me more than 3 weeks in India incl flights hotel etc.
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adrtho
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This article is very typical, of the type of article that present by Western media and business academics on why Russia economy will not Collapse..the substance is always the same, Russia has a lot of money Quote:Why Russia’s Economy Will Not Collapse
GENEVA – The rapid depreciation of the ruble, despite a dramatic – and seemingly desperate – late-night interest-rate hike by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) last month, has raised the specter of Russia’s economic meltdown in 1998. Indeed, the West has sought to animate that specter in its ongoing confrontation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. But, though Russia’s economy is undoubtedly in trouble, a full-blown collapse is unlikely.
Oil and gas account for more than 60% of Russia’s exports; other primary commodities make up much of the rest. Given this, the recent sharp decline in world oil prices obviously represents a major shock – large enough, when combined with the effect of increasingly strict Western sanctions – to provoke a sizeable recession. To make matters worse, commodity prices are expected to remain low for some time. In that case, the income loss would become much more than a temporary setback.
But Russia is no economic basket-case-in-waiting – at least not yet. The situation today is very different from that in 1998, when Russia was running twin fiscal and current-account deficits. Russia needed to borrow, and it was borrowing heavily in foreign currency. This meant that as the ruble depreciated, Russia’s debts rose. Eventually, default became inevitable.
By contrast, in recent years, Russia has enjoyed a sizeable budget surplus, and public debt is below 20% of GDP. It is true that income from oil and gas, which represents the bulk of government revenues, has been halved when measured in dollars. But the Russian currency has fallen by about the same percentage, meaning that the government’s income in rubles remains approximately unchanged.
Similarly, Russia’s current-account balance has been mostly in surplus in recent years. Gross public and private external debt is below 40% of GDP, and much of it is denominated in rubles. The sharp fall in export income is rapidly changing the situation, but Russia is starting from a comfortable position. To panic would be premature.
The ruble’s free fall has been driven mainly by capital outflows. Russia’s famous oligarchs have already stashed most of their wealth abroad, but they retain significant savings at home. As the economic and political situation deteriorates, they are most likely pulling more money out. Small savers have every reason to switch into foreign currency as well.
This has put the CBR in a challenging position. The ruble’s depreciation is bound to fuel inflation, already around 11% and far above the CBR’s 5% target. In that context, raising the interest rate sharply makes sense, and officials may be hoping that the hike will stem capital outflows – despite the risk that the decision, if interpreted as being aimed at defending the currency, could have the opposite effect.
The trouble is that the higher interest rates are bound to deepen Russia’s economic downturn, making the CBR an easy scapegoat. Never mind that the central bank is not responsible for Russia’s troubles – the run on the ruble, the recession, and the flare-up of inflation – and that using interest rates to prevent capital outflows always fails. Embattled politicians can be counted on to point the finger.
The threat to Putin is clear. He risks the fate of his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, who presided during a period of unusually low oil prices. Until now, Putin has been lucky, coming to power just as oil prices started to rise. Most Russian citizens credit him with two decades of rising living standards, following decades of decline.
Putin’s decision not to implement the unpopular reforms that would have created a strong non-oil export sector may have been bad for the economy’s long-term health, but it has allowed him to maintain widespread public support. His economic good fortune, combined with his readiness to stand up to the West, has created a misguided impression in Russia that the country is, once again, a world power.
Many in the United States and Europe believe that ratcheting up economic pressure on Russia will help drive Putin out. This is an enormously dangerous gamble. As Russian living standards decline, Putin’s only viable strategy to remain in power will be an aggressive international posture. Foreign military adventures, after all, are most appealing when the domestic front is on fire.
None of this means that the West should bow and forsake its principles. But it does mean that the time has come for a diplomatic approach that does not depend on the prospect of Russia’s economic collapse.
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adrtho
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Quote:One-Fifth Of Russian Banks Could Collapse In 2015
The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting estimates that as many as 200 banks face collapse this year as a combination of bad loans and falls in the value of the ruble punish small- and mid-sized firms, Russian business daily Vedomosti reports. Quote:For the country's banking sector the problems are even more severe. They hold a total $192 billion of external debt, around 70% of which is dollar-denominated, and that bill is getting ever larger as the ruble continues to slide against major currencies. Over the past year the ruble has fallen almost 50% against the dollar. http://www.businessinsider.com/over-20-percent-of-russian-banks-at-risk-of-collapse-this-year-2015-1this is directly related to banking sanctions by the USA..If Australia banks were cut off from Western capital market tomorrow, the Australian Banking sector would Collapse , it be entirely up to the Australia Government, and the ability of people with in Australia to save the Australian economy..there be almost zero help from out side of Australia...Australian would be fucked :lol: But why, would we believe, the Russian Government has the ability to handy this (only one) problem more effectively then Australia, and her people ?
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paulbagzFC
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adrtho has a long long long long longgggggggggggggggggggg way to go before he reaches Polemides levels of agendas :lol: -PB
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Carlito
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paulbagzFC wrote:adrtho has a long long long long longgggggggggggggggggggg way to go before he reaches Polemides levels of agendas :lol:
-PB he's already at that level :lol:
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adrtho
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MvFCArsenal16.8 wrote:paulbagzFC wrote:adrtho has a long long long long longgggggggggggggggggggg way to go before he reaches Polemides levels of agendas :lol:
-PB he's already at that level :lol: MvFCArsenal, do you have any comment or question about the coming Russian banking collapse? or you just like following me around :lol:
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adrtho
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Quote:European Union (EU) plans to give Ukraine a further 1.8 billion euros to help prop up an economy hit hard by a protracted conflict with Russian-backed rebels, European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker said on Thursday (Jan 8).
The 1.8 billion euros (US$2.1 billion, S$2.8 billion) in medium-term loans will help Ukraine meet the "critical challenges" it faces and support the political and economic reforms the European Union believes are crucial to its future, said the Commission Quote:"Ukraine is not alone. Europe stands united behind Ukraine and the reform agenda of the new government," Juncker said in the Commission statement. "The European Union has provided unprecedented financial support and today's proposal proves that we are ready to continue providing that support. This is European solidarity in action." Quote:EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini later added: "We have also said and will continue to say that the financial assistance is linked to their willingness to make reforms."
"It is clear that we need to see this commitment to reforms and some results," she said at another press conference in Riga, citing corruption as an example
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/international/eu-s-juncker-announces/1577898.htmlEdited by adrtho: 28/1/2015 12:10:54 PM
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adrtho
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This is why i believe the risk of Ukraine defaulting is less then what the market believe ..Ukraine government will make the reforms that EU, IMF ask for, and as such, Ukraine will get money just in time to stop defaulting...
The Risk is Putin, and he clear goal of destroying this Ukraine government..but i think Putin intimidating military show of forces against Baltic , Finland and Sweden has had the opposite effect, especially for the Norther European countries , who really control European finance..So, un less Putin order a full invasion of Ukraine , EU will keep supporting Ukraine with more money , even with 12,000 Russian troops fighting in Ukraine
Russia on the other hand, has very little ability to raise money out side of Russia, and it has almost none in side
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notorganic
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I didn't read much in this thread, but can somebody tl;dr if I should sell all my roubles or not?
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adrtho
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notorganic wrote:I didn't read much in this thread, but can somebody tl;dr if I should sell all my roubles or not? sell :d
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adrtho
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EU to extend Russia sanctions, add new names, prepare new steps Quote:The European Union will extend by six months sanctions imposed on Russia last March over its annexation of Crimea, add new people to those under sanctions and prepare new measures, draft conclusions for an EU foreign ministers meeting showed. http://news.yahoo.com/eu-extend-russia-sanctions-add-names-prepare-steps-120111693.htmlto be honest, it doesn't really matter about EU banking sanctions, if the US has banking sanctions, then 99% of EU banks would have to comply to US law anyway, or give up business with in USA.. or the bank pay a fine of $10 billion like French bank BNP Paribas did, for breaking USA sanctions on Sudan, Cuba and Iran...BNP Paribas thought they was safe, using loop hole to get around the law :lol: Edited by adrtho: 29/1/2015 12:54:23 AM
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adrtho
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Quote: because if Russia is rated junk, then its companies will be too—which will increase the borrowing costs on their existing debt. It could also trigger earlier bond repayments, which, together with the higher interest rates, could, according to one official, cost them as much as $20 to $30 billion. Quote:And that's $20 to $30 billion it really can't afford. Russia, as I've said before, doesn't have an economy so much as an oil-exporting business that subsidizes everything else. But it can't subsidize much when prices are only $50-a-barrel. That leaves Russia in a world of bad, worse, and Dostoevskian choices. Quote:Cheaper oil, you see, means that Russian companies have fewer dollars to turn into rubles, which is just another way of saying that there's less demand for rubles—so its price is falling. But it can't fall too much or Russian companies, who have a lot of dollar debts they can't roll over due to Western sanctions, won't be able to pay back what they owe. Even worse, Russia banks could face a run on their foreign currency holdings, as people try to turn rubles they think will lose value into dollars that won't. Quote:Russia can't wake up from this economic nightmare, though, because they're not asleep. This is their reality. After falling in almost perfect tandem with oil for most of the year, the ruble started free falling in December. In under a week, it went from 55 to 75 rubles per dollar—a 36 percent decline—and the panic got so bad that the bank run turned into an Apple and Ikea run. People decided that if they couldn't ditch their rubles for dollars, then they'd settle for the latest smartphones and assemble-it-yourself furniture instead. Quote:Faced with this catastrophic loss of confidence in their currency, Russia did the only thing it could do: everything. First, it jacked up interest rates from 10.5 to 17 percent to try to get people to hold their money in rubles that would pay them a lot of interest rather than dollars that wouldn't. Then it started spending its $400 billion-ish war chest of reserves to prop up the ruble directly. And when that wasn't enough, it, well, "convinced" exporters to sell their dollars for rubles and made oligarchs bring their overseas money home to pay taxes. In Putin's Russia, this counted as kinder, gentler capital controls. Russia ruble over value still, base on $50 oil Quote:The result, as you can see below, was a short-lived ruble rally that has since dissipated. The problem, as Lars Christensen of Danske Bank told me, is that the ruble "should" be worth 75 per dollar as long as oil is around $50-a-barrel. What makes that even trickier, though, is that a currency doesn't fall to its fair value, but rather to the point at which it's expected to move up to its fair value. Markets overshoot, in other words, because nobody wants to buy rubles right before they hit bottom. That means, absent Russian intervention, the ruble would probably be trading around 80 or 85 per dollar, and maybe even lower. http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-is-on-a-holy-mission-and-the-west-doesnt-get-it-2015-1Edited by adrtho: 29/1/2015 02:55:48 AM
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adrtho
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Quote:MOSCOW: Russia sold only a fifth of the bonds it offered at its first debt auction since November as investors demanded yields higher so little money, and Russia still can't sell their bonds :) Quote:The Finance Ministry rejected 87 percent of the bids received at an auction of 5 billion rubles ($76 million) of May 2016 notes Wednesday. While the government paid an average yield of 15.27 percent, almost five percentage points more than at its last sale of the debt in November, that was still 125 basis points below the yield at Tuesday's close. Quote:"The fact that investors aren't willing to purchase Russian debt at 15 percent interest rates tells you something has gone wrong somewhere," Neil Shearing, the chief emerging-markets economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, said by phone. "There's a growing acknowledgment that Russia's public finances are on an unsustainable footing." http://www.arabnews.com/economy/news/693601
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adrtho
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France says EU to move to increase sanctions on Russia Quote:France says European Union sanctions against separatists in eastern Ukraine and their Russian backers will be reinforced in an attempt to force all sides back to the negotiating table.
French European Affairs Minister Harlem Desir said ahead of Thursday's meeting of EU foreign ministers that the bloc needs "the maximum toughness" in the face of continued fighting against government forces Quote:"It is the duty of the EU now to prepare options for the future including, I think it's now necessary, the possibility of further restrictive measures against Russia which our leaders could then consider depending on what happens on the ground," he said. http://news.yahoo.com/france-says-eu-move-further-sanctions-russia-133245713.htmlIt'a very clear that sanctions on Russia is not going to be drop soon..the fact is, when look at the History USA sanctions place on other countries , they last for decades,,,these Russia sanctions can be on Russia a very long time
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adrtho
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You know Russia is fuck , when Lukashenko is jumping the ship :lol: Quote:MINSK, Belarus (AP) — New cracks emerged Thursday in a Russia-led economic alliance, with the president of Belarus warning that his nation may opt out of it.
Alexander Lukashenko also sternly warned Moscow Thursday that his nation of 10 million will never be part of the "Russian world," a term coined by the Kremlin that reflects its hopes to pull ex-Soviet nations closer into its orbit.
"Those who think that the Belarusian land is part as what they call the Russian world, almost part of Russia, forget about it!" Lukashenko said. "Belarus is a modern and independent state."
Lukashenko, who has been at the helm since 1994, has relied on Russia's economic subsidies and political support but bristled at Moscow's attempts to expand its control over Belarusian assets.
He was dubbed "Europe's last dictator" in the West for his relentless crackdown on the opposition and free media, but Belarus' relations with the United States and the European Union have warmed recently as Minsk played host to crucial Ukrainian peace talks.
Lukashenko said he wants to normalize ties with Western nations and issued a clear warning to Moscow that it shouldn't expect Belarus to follow suit in defying the West.
In another signal of growing frictions between the two allies, Lukashenko, who plans to seek another term in elections this year, said he warned Moscow that he wouldn't step down.
"As for sending me into retirement, I harshly told them in the Kremlin that they won't succeed in bending me," he said.
Last month, he accused Moscow of damaging Belarus' economic interests with moves to restrict exports to Russia, which he said violated the rules of the Eurasian Economic Union, a grouping that comprises Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.
On Thursday, Lukashenko warned that if the agreements on forming the alliance aren't observed, "we reserve the right to leave the union."
Belarus, sandwiched between Russia and European Union members Poland and Lithuania, has profited handsomely from Moscow's ban on imports of EU food in retaliation to Western sanctions against Russia by boosting imports of food from the EU nations and reselling the food to Russia.
The Russian authorities have retaliated by restricting imports of Belarus' own milk and meat and banning transit of Belarusian food bound for Kazakhstan through its territory on suspicion that much of it ended up in Russia. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/belarusian-leader-issues-tough-warning-moscow-173844111.html
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adrtho
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Lithuania Is Publishing A Russian Invasion Survival Manual For Its Citizens Quote:Lithuania is publishing a manual to advise its citizens on how to survive a war on its soil as concerns grow that Russia's intervention in Ukraine heralds increased assertiveness in its tiny Baltic neighbors.
"Keep a sound mind, don't panic and don't lose clear thinking," the manual explains. "Gunshots just outside your window are not the end of the world." don't panic about gunshots :lol: what about if Canadian C-18 start shoting at Russian Mig :lol: Quote:In the event of invasion, the manual says Lithuanians should organize themselves through Twitter and Facebook and attempt cyber attacks against the enemy. Quote:"The examples of Georgia and Ukraine, which both lost a part of their territory, show us that we cannot rule out a similar kind of situation here, and that we should be ready," Defence Minister Juozas Olekas told Reuters.
The Lithuanian army and its paramilitary reserve force have seen increased recruitment since the crisis in Ukraine.
"When Russia started its aggression in Ukraine, here in Lithuania our citizens understood that our neighbor is not friendly," Olekas added.
The government is also considering requiring all future buildings to incorporate a bomb shelter on the premises. http://www.businessinsider.com/lithuania-is-publishing-a-russian-invasion-survival-manual-for-its-citizens-2015-1Edited by adrtho: 31/1/2015 08:13:14 AM
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adrtho
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Morgan Stanley has a short message for Russia: you're doomed.Quote:Morgan Stanley is out with a pretty scary forecast, too.
"We downgrade 2015 growth from -1.7%Y to -5.6%Y and revise our 2016 growth from a mild (0.8%Y) recovery to a 2.5%Y recession," writes Morgan Stanley's Alina Slyusarchuk. "The key new assumption that triggers the revision is the signifcantly weaker oil price, combined with a tighter policy response. At the same time, we see risks to our call as being titled to the downside, given the enhanced risk of further sanctions, and concerns over increased state control over the economy." Quote:Unless there's a rebound in oil prices or western-imposed sanction, Morgan Stanley highlights three risks:
"We see the implementation risk that 'top-down' stabilization is undermined by special deals to help particular banks and companies" — weakening the ruble and driving inflation.
Further potential sanctions on Russia "might trigger rating downgrades and index exclusion, which would drive another wave of capital outflows" — again weakening the ruble and driving inflation.
The government might finally introduce capital controls.
Now here's the scariest part of the latest Morgan Stanley report: Although initially analysts and Russian politicians alike were likening the current economic crisis in Russia to that of 2009, the latest Morgan Stanley note suggests this one is could be much more severe http://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-thinks-russias-doomed-211029061.html
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adrtho
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Intercepted Russian bomber was carrying a nuclear missile over the ChannelQuote:A RUSSIAN bomber intercepted over the Channel last week was carrying a nuclear missile designed to destroy Trident submarines, it emerged last night.
RAF Typhoon fighter jets were scrambled on Wednesday after two long-range TU-95 “Bear” bombers were detected flying over the English Channel. Quote:Sources within the Ministry of Defence last night revealed that one of the two long-range bombers was carrying at least one air-dropped “seek and find"d nuclear warhead-carrtying missile, designed to seek and destroy a Vanguard submarine. Quote:Both Prime Minister David Cameron and Defence Secretary Michael Fallon were alerted after cockpit conservations confirming the bomber’s nuclear payload were intercepted by a Norwegian military listening post, and shared with the Ministry of Defence. http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/555454/Intercepted-Russian-bomber-was-carrying-a-nuclear-missile-over-the-ChannelAustralia might have to send some Orion to UK, as Uk has almost zero Maritime Patrol ability, to find Russian subs.Right now Canadian air forces is fly Maritime Patrol for UK
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paulbagzFC
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adrtho
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Russian Parliament Set to Request €4 Trillion in WWII Reparations From Germany :lol: Quote:Members of the Russian parliament are creating a task force to estimate the damages inflicted on Russia by Germany during WWII, in a bid to demand financial compensation from the German state almost 70 years after the end of the conflict, Russian daily newspaper Izvestia reported on Tuesday. Quote:The initiative is a direct response to trade sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and EU, for its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in March and continuous support of separatist fighters in Eastern Ukraine since, according to Mikhail Degyaterov, an MP from the Liberal Democrat Party of Russia, who has proposed the task force.
“Practically, Germany paid nothing to the USSR for its wave of destruction and savagery during the Second World War,” said Degyaterov. Quote:After the Yalta convention the USSR took back some German assets - largely looted furniture, clothes and industrial equipment, as well as some spoils of war - but largely there was no compensation of the war’s economic blow to the USSR,” Degyaterov added. :lol: Quote:“It appears that, with all that considered, under the current exchange Germany owes reparations of no less than €3-4 trillion, which it must pay to the successor of the Soviet Union - Russia,” Degtyarev said. Fucking nuts :lol: http://www.newsweek.com/russian-parliament-set-request-eu4-trillion-wwii-reparations-germany-304163
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adrtho
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Outraged Russians are Instagramming their food-inflation nightmarehttp://www.businessinsider.com/russians-instagram-food-inflation-2015-2Quote:Maybe I just don't understand anything in this life, but it seems that a kilo of nuts can't possibly cost the same as 200 loaves of bread.
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adrtho
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Russian Inflation Soars to Staggering 15 PercentQuote:Russia's inflation hit 15 percent in January, official data showed Thursday, underscoring the growing economic pain from sliding oil prices and Western sanctions linked to the Ukraine conflict.
Inflation has been shooting up in recent months as a result of a slide in the ruble, which has made imports dearer, as well as restrictions imposed on many food imports from the West in retaliation for the sanctions.
"We think the big jump in import prices as a result of the plunge in the ruble may now have happened," Liza Ermolenko, emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. "But the lagged effects will continue to feed through over the coming months and could push inflation to around 17.5 percent or so in Q2."
The surge in inflation is embarrassing for the Central Bank, coming just days after it unexpectedly cut its main lending rate to 17 percent from 15 percent, prompting many analysts to warn that it was taking risks with inflation.
The bank's governor, Elvira Nabiullina, on Tuesday defended the cut by saying that real interest rates — the difference between nominal rates and inflation — remained positive.
That claim has now been quickly proved wrong.
"Inflation is at the level of rates, which is very risky … In theory, they need to raise rates," said Vladimir Osakovsky, Russia economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "The decision of the Central Bank looks, to put it mildly, premature."
Russian officials have forecast that inflation will reach 15-17 percent in the coming months, but the speed of the increase comes as a surprise. A month earlier, inflation was running at 11.4 percent.
Analysts polled at the end of last month predicted that inflation would reach 13.3 percent in January, with an increase of 2.6 percent month-on-month.
Analysts at Alfa Bank predicted in a note that inflation would stay in the 15-16 percent range until May, adding: "In such an environment, another rate cut should be seen as a policy deviation from the inflation targeting priority."
The Economic Development Ministry revised its forecasts at the end of January to say inflation would end 2015 at 12 percent, higher than last year. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russian-inflation-soars-to-staggering-15-percent/515485.html
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adrtho
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Vladimir Putin: I am not autistic :lol: :lol: :lol: Quote:RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman has angrily dismissed a Pentagon study that claimed the Russian leader had Asperger’s syndrome, a form of autism.
“That is stupidity not worthy of comment,” spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Gazeta.ru news website.
His comments came after USA Today reported that a 2008 study carried out by an internal Pentagon think tank, the Office of Net Assessment, suggested that Mr Putin has Asperger’s syndrome, giving him a need to exert “extreme control” on his surroundings and is uncomfortable with social interaction. http://www.news.com.au/world/europe/vladimir-putin-i-am-not-autistic/story-fnh81p7g-1227211146103
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adrtho
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Russians advised to pull their money out of banks and prepare for 'black market in cashQuote:A columnist for Russia's Vedomosti newspaper, a joint venture between the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal, has advised readers to pull their savings out of banks and convert them into physical dollars.
The ruble has tanked over the past year, falling over 50% from 33 rubles to the dollar to 67 rubles at market open Friday. The collapse in the currency's value has helped drive up prices in the country, which is heavily reliant on imports, with inflation surging to 15% in January. Quote:It is better to keep money in foreign currency (dollars more than euros as the US economy is doing better than the EU) and prepare for what many economists are already saying could be a return to the conditions of the 1990s ... It is better to take your savings, or at least a portion of them, out of the banks. Who can guarantee that what will happen next won't be a situation in which all foreign currency deposits are forcibly converted [into rubles] or frozen? After all, the black market in cash worked even in Soviet times. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russians-advised-pull-money-banks-145700524.html
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adrtho
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Putin Rejects Attempts to Contain Russia After Peace Talks FailQuote:Bloomberg) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin struck a defiant tone a day after talks in Moscow with the leaders of Germany and France failed to achieve a breakthrough in resolving the Ukraine crisis.
Russia won’t tolerate the post-Cold War global system dominated by a single leader, Putin said Saturday at a meeting with the Federation of Independent Trade Unions in Sochi.
“That type of world order has never been acceptable for Russia,” Putin said. “Maybe someone likes it and wants to live under a pseudo-occupation, but we won’t put up with it.”
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande met the Russian leader for more than five hours Friday to discuss spiraling violence in eastern Ukraine between government forces and Russian-backed separatists. A breakdown of the diplomacy may strain trans-Atlantic unity in dealing with Russia, as Europe’s consensus on economic sanctions shows signs of fraying.
Ukraine, the U.S., the European Union and NATO say Russia is supporting the separatists with hardware, cash and troops, accusations the Kremlin denies. Russia says Ukraine is waging war on its own citizens and discriminates against Russian speakers, a majority in Donetsk and Luhansk.
Heavy fighting has forced more than 1.5 million people to flee their homes, with some 600,000 Ukrainians seeking refuge abroad since last February, the United Nations’ refugee agency said in a report. The conflict has killed more than 5,350 people since April, according to the UN.
Arming Ukraine
Some U.S. officials and diplomats in Washington are openly discussing supplying weapons to the Ukrainian army, a position that has been rejected by Germany and is viewed skeptically by President Barack Obama. Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, said in an interview in Munich that the U.S. could provide defensive weapons to Ukraine.
NATO plans to boost its military presence in eastern Europe risk provoking confrontation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg Saturday at a meeting on the sidelines of a security conference in Munich.
NATO is setting up military headquarters and command centers from the Baltic to the Black seas along Russia’s borders and plans to ultimately field a rapid-reaction force of 30,000 troops as relations with the Kremlin have deteriorated.
Merkel, Hollande, Putin and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko plan a conference call Sunday to discuss a potential settlement. Amid the cease-fire bid, Ukraine said rebel forces are readying a new offensive to extend their territorial gains in the east
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adrtho
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today is the end of the end, for Europe over the last 20 years., their is no going back, Europe now start a new reality today ..Today was the last chance
Business between Europe and Russia today, is dead, now Russia will become like Iran or Libya, they will be some type of business, but it will not be normal business that happens between normal countries .
sanctions ...west will have to put more sanctions on Russia, the west can not, not do nothing, it more sanctions or more Western weapons to Ukraine or both
World cup 2018...I just don't see how, they can hold a World cup, and have Western sanctions on Russia at the same time
Edited by adrtho: 8/2/2015 05:38:14 AM
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paladisious
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Do you wonder why you're the only one posting in this thread?
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adrtho
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paladisious wrote:Do you wonder why you're the only one posting in this thread? No, i don't...it's better for people to read, then to comments on things they don't know anything about
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paladisious
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adrtho wrote:paladisious wrote:Do you wonder why you're the only one posting in this thread? No, i don't...it's better for people to read, then to comments on things they don't know anything about So you're saying that your opinion is the only one that should be seen, got it. Edited by paladisious: 8/2/2015 06:32:19 AM
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adrtho
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paladisious wrote:adrtho wrote:paladisious wrote:Do you wonder why you're the only one posting in this thread? No, i don't...it's better for people to read, then to comments on things they don't know anything about So you're saying that your opinion is the only one that should be seen, got it. Edited by paladisious: 8/2/2015 06:32:19 AM no..where did i say this? as, 99% of my post are just from main western news articles on the subject, i don't see how it's just my opinion
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adrtho
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Quote:Russia Investors On 'War Watch' Wednesday Quote:War or peace? Russia investors will be betting either way on Monday.
The market’s preferable day trade into Russian equities may have impressed last week, but this week promises to be a doozy. Leaders from the so-called Normandy Four — Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia — will sit down yet again to hammer out a cease fire agreement in Minsk on Wednesday. If diplomacy fails, investors holding the Market Vectors Russia (RSX) exchange traded fund will dump, and dump hard. Quote:whenever a cease fire agreement is deemed plausible, Russian equities rally hard. Russian equities are pure momentum plays, because the economic fundamentals are not sound. Sanctions and weak oil prices promise to push Russia into a recession this year. Quote:German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said today that security in Europe required stable relations with Moscow. “Permanent security in Europe can only be reached together, not against Russia,” he said while addressing the Munich Security Conference.
In typical foreign policy fashion, however, the U.K. is tilting more towards the U.S. than Germany on this one. If no substantial progress is made in Minsk, U.K. Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond hinted that weapons could be supplied.
“We do not think that supplying arms is the right thing to do,” Sky News quoted him saying today. “But if the situation on the ground changes we’ll keep that position under review.” http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2015/02/08/russia-investors-on-war-watch-wednesday/?utm_source=yahoo.com&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix
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adrtho
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Putin Ally Warns European Parliament Of 'All-Out War' If US Sends Weapons To UkraineQuote:A leading Russian MP and close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned the European Parliament of an “all-out war” scenario of the United States decides to supply weapons to the Ukrainian government. U.S. President Barack Obama had previously announced that Washington was considering the option of sending lethal weapons to help Kiev.
Alexel Pushkov spoke about the dire consequences before the European Parliament’s foreign affairs committee. He gave the warning after Mr Obama said the U.S. was not ruling out sending weapons to Ukraine if diplomacy did not succeed. http://au.ibtimes.com/putin-ally-warns-european-parliament-all-out-war-if-us-sends-weapons-ukraine-1420307Edited by adrtho: 12/2/2015 11:11:56 AM
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adrtho
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peace for our timehttp://news.yahoo.com/fifty-tanks-40-missile-systems-crossed-russia-east-114255433.htmlThe Australia army has 59 Main battle tanks Edited by adrtho: 13/2/2015 04:07:52 AM
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adrtho
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Minsk agreementafter 16 hours of talks, their another Minsk agreement, will this agreement work where last Minsk agreement didn't, no body knows, but many people are hoping it does, and not just people in Ukraine,thought out Eastern Europe who won or lost from this agreement, is really hard to say, and only time will tell going back to my original bet, and the idea behide it. this looks to be coming true, or a lest half of it ..the bet was, that Ukrainian government doesn't default and bet that Russia government does....the idea behide this bet was, that the EU and USA couldn't let Ukraine government default, if Ukraine government did everything IMF ask it to do, no matter how much war Putin put on to Ukraine..Today with the massive bailout totaling $40 billion from IMF today, this put a end to the major risk of Ukraine defaulting http://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-40-billion-bailout-russia-imf-2015-2the only risk for Ukraine in defaulting now, is total war with Russia, or a change in pro west government in Kiev Edited by adrtho: 13/2/2015 08:51:13 AM
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adrtho
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Russian Parliament Warns Europe’s Longstanding Peace in JeopardyQuote:An extraordinary letter addressed to the European Parliament and the Council of Europe, among other recipients, reportedly sent from the Russian Parliament paints the war in Ukraine as a fight against Nazism and says Russia is ready to “mobilize all forces” to defend stability in Europe, provoking both ridicule and anger in Sweden, after surfacing there this week.
The sensational letter, signed by the State Duma chairman Sergey Naryshkin, a known hardliner with a close relationship to Putin, warns of a “fragmentation in Europe” and says that continuing sanctions, the crisis in Ukraine, and January’s terror attacks in Paris, jeopardise “the possibility of a peaceful life for over 800 million Europeans”. Quote:Several Swedish politicians have expressed their anger at the letter’s threatening tone, and some Swedes go as far to say that it constitutes a threat of war, albeit one couched in diplomatic language. In the same week that the terms of a ceasefire were hashed out in Minsk over the crisis in Ukraine, Swedes are saying the letter is a way of warning Europe to leave Russia to take care of Ukraine. Quote:Patrik Oksanen, political editor of Swedish daily newspaper Hudiksvalls Tidning, says the letter shows that “in indirect words, they are threatening World War Three in Europe. It is not a direct threat, but another instrument of the Russian propaganda.” Quote:Relations between Sweden and Russia have been growing increasingly tense, particularly in the wake of last year’s hunt for a Russian submarine thought to be lurking in the Stockholm archipelago. http://www.newsweek.com/russian-parliament-warns-europes-longstanding-peace-jeopardy-306751yet, many people still think, it be business as usual between Russia and EU Edited by adrtho: 14/2/2015 01:00:05 PM
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99 Problems
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paulbagzFC wrote:Mods sticky pls.
-PB
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adrtho
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Report: Crime, Anti-American Harassment in Russia GrowsQuote:Anti-American sentiment and criminal activities have increased in Moscow since Russian forces took over Ukraine’s Crimea and continue to destabilize eastern Ukraine, a recent State Department security report reveals. Quote:The social and political unrest in Ukraine has led to increasing political tensions between the Russian Federation and the U.S. and other Western nations,” the report, based on reports from the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, said. “As a result, anti-American and anti-Western sentiment appears to be increasing, especially in certain media outlets.” Quote:Embassy reports indicate a number of Americans were verbally harassed and physically assaulted in the last part of 2014, but the report said so far no major campaign of targeted attacks against Americans was detected. Quote:The report concluded that Russia’s political, economic, and social climate “changed markedly as a result of the country’s illegal annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, ongoing support for military separatists in eastern Ukraine, U.S./Western economic sanctions, and a dramatic drop in the price of oil that significantly weakened the value of the
Russian ruble.” http://freebeacon.com/national-security/report-crime-anti-american-harassment-in-russia-grows/This is just the began, the amount of Ant-Western propaganda on Russian TV now, is just mind blowing, and It's not just a Fox news type of stuff, it made up it's own fictional reality stuff...they will show a TV ad from America of a boy getting wall poster from his dad for his 11th birthday ,and the poster are of homosexual men, Russian Tv channel will debate this stuff as if it's a true ad in America .The ad in American is real ad, but the boy gets a big monster truck wall poster for he birthday, and not gay man wall posters
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adrtho
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Moscow commentator: Russia in far worse shape than most assumeQuote:Vladimir Putin’s bombast and aggressiveness both is rooted in and helps conceal the underlying reality: “the situation of Russia is much more difficult than it appears,” as even the most superficial examination of Russian realities demonstrates, according to Moscow political analyst Vasily Zharkov.
In a commentary in yesterday’s “Novaya gazeta,” the scholar at the Moscow Higher School of Social and Economic Sciences points to five reasons that Moscow propaganda has with some success sought to conceal not only from Russians but from citizens of other countries as well.
First, he writes, “Russia is a poor country.” However much people focus on the limousines of its wealth, the future pensions of its citizens are so small that they would elicit only pity “in the poorest of the EU countries” and the state of its villages and other rural areas is comparable to “the poorest countries of Africa.”
Indeed, Zharkov says, “the shine of the capital windows is not so much a sign of wealth as evidence of the bestial inequality and injustice which somehow is accepted as the norm.”
Second, he argues, “Russia is far from united. Moscow and the provinces are not simply different countries,” but on opposite sides of the border “between the first and third worlds.” As it has worked out, Russia has established “within itself” the global inequality which exists elsewhere between countries.
Third, having lost Soviet political institutions but “not acquired any others in exchange, Russia is balanced at the edge of a war of all against all,” an “internal” conflict which was concealed during the period of high prices of oil but is now very much on public view for anyone who will look.
It is not really a state in the modern sense. Instead, it is a “neo-feudal” structure in which corruption plays the key role. Theft of oil and gas revenues are in fact at the core of the much-ballyhooed “power vertical” because they and not anything else are “the basis of loyalty to ‘the system.’”
Fourth, “Russia cannot any longer be considered a big country” because its “enormous territory has still not been colonized completely.” Instead, it is hollowing out as a result of irreversible demographic decline, something that won’t be reversed because Russia “remains among those countries least attractive for immigrants.”
Some people are afraid that the depopulation of Russia will lead to its occupation by others, “but there is another variant,” one in which it will become a territory no one needs or wants except for its natural resources. Those others will be able to take because Russia will not be able to prevent them from doing so.
And fifth, Zharkov writes, “Russia is no longer a country where Nobel laureates are born. All out cultural and scientific achievements are in the past. In the present, libraries burn, schools and universities contract, obscurantism replaces humanitarian knowledge with magicians driving out contemporary medicine.”
Some say that Russia can lift itself out of all these problems as it did in the 1930s by a mobilization regime. But that is a false hope. There aren’t any more peasant masses who could become a new “labor army,” and bringing in labor migrants from abroad is going to be ever more difficult, whatever the government thinks.
Moreover, he points out, Russia has succeeded in getting embroiled in a fight with the West, “without the participation of which over the last 500 years not a single branch of industry in Russia has arisen.” Even Stalin’s industrialization would have been impossible “without the technological participation of the United States and Germany.”
Many Russians have exalted in the annexation of Crimea without recognizing that that action carries with it a threat to their country as well: if Russia doesn’t respect the borders of other countries, it “shouldn’t be surprised if at some point” its own borders are changed and “not only by our will.”
Still, many Russians and others are convinced that Moscow still has the ultimate support – nuclear weapons, “which were achieved for the USSR by the American family of the Rosenbergs in the name of the unachievable idea of the construction of communism.”
In recent months, Moscow has threatened the world with its nuclear weapons, something that will work only until the US and China develop new weapons that Russia cannot and leads the rest of the world to wonder “what can be done with a country which threatens to organize the end of the world.”
“By its own policies,” Zharkov says, “Russia has put itself and its future at risk. The world looks at [it] with surprise and horror.” For a time, it may be frightened into going along. But as with everything, there is a limit to this – and the world may decide that it can do without Russia just as it has learned to live without Carthage and without the Golden Horde.
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adrtho
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EU gets tough with Russian military leaders – and Soviet-era 'Sinatra' :lol: Quote:The EU has sent a tough message to President Vladimir Putin that it will keep up the pressure over Ukraine by slapping sanctions on three Russian military leaders, prominent Ukrainian separatists, and a popular singer known as Russia’s Frank Sinatra.
The sanctions, officially termed “restrictive measures in respect of actions undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine”, were imposed on 19 individuals and nine organisations on Monday, despite last week’s Minsk peace deal and a shaky weekend ceasefire in eastern Ukraine. Quote:Topping the names added to the list of those subject to travel bans and asset freezes are two Russian deputy defence ministers, Arkady Bakhin and Anatoly Antonov, who, according to the EU, were “involved in supporting the deployment of Russian troops in Ukraine”. Russia denies deploying troops in Ukraine.
Also sanctioned was Andrei Kartapolov, director of the main operations department and deputy chief of the general staff of the armed forces of the Russian Federation. “In both capacities he is actively involved in shaping and implementing the military campaign of the Russian forces in Ukraine” the EU said. Quote:Two members of the Russian parliament (Duma) were included in the new sanctions list – Valery Rashkin and Joseph Kobzon. Rashkin, first deputy chairman of Duma’s committee on ethnicity issues, is described as the founder of the civil movement Krassnaya Moskva (Red Moscow – Patriotic Front Aid) which organised public demonstrations supporting separatists.
Kobzon is a more colourful figure, known in Russia for his long Soviet-era career as a singer whose repertoire brought comparisons with Sinatra. Born in Chasiv Yar, in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, Kobzon rose to national prominence during Leonid Brezhnev’s time at the helm of the former Soviet Union, and was a popular act at official concerts. In 1980, he was honoured as “people’s artist of the USSR”. Quote:A total of 151 individuals and 37 organisations have been sanctioned since the EU started taking active measures after the March 2014 annexation of Crimea. Additional economic sanctions were imposed after the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine in July. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/16/russia-frank-sinatra-eu-sanctions-list-ukrainemore sanction , no money, I just don't see how Russia will be able to hold the World Cup Edited by adrtho: 17/2/2015 08:32:44 AM
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adrtho
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Ireland drawn into 'new Cold War' as Vladimir Putin flexes muscles after Russian bombers fly past the west coastQuote:A diplomatic spat erupted as the Irish Government warned it was “absolutely unacceptable” that the two Tupolev 95s were in Irish-controlled airspace for five hours without notifying the authorities.
The planes were flying with their transponders switched off – meaning they could not be ‘seen’ by civilian aircraft as they passed through the busy airspace, where around 1,800 planes a day travel.
Quote:The Republic's Defence Minister Simon Coveney warned Russian military aircraft “should not” enter Irish airspace without notification but said there would be no “knee-jerk reaction”. He will discuss the matter with the Taoiseach to decide a course of action.
But a spokesman for Russian ambassador to Ireland Maxim Peshkov insisted the aircraft were in international airspace and there was no threat to commercial airlines. Quote:Mr Coveney last night told the Irish Independent: "What happened was two Russian planes, without filing any flight plan or giving any pre-notification, came into international airspace that is controlled by the IAA.
"It should not happen and it did. That is a very busy airspace - about 1,800 planes a day fly through that. The IAA did a really good job in managing it." http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/republic-of-ireland/ireland-drawn-into-new-cold-war-as-vladimir-putin-flexes-muscles-after-russian-bombers-fly-past-the-west-coast-30952766.html
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adrtho
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adrtho
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Lukashenka Says Belarus Ready For Dialogue With NATOQuote:Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka says his country is ready for a "constructive dialogue" with NATO.
Speaking to top Belarusian military officials in Minsk on February 19, Lukashenka said: "As a sovereign state we are open, in particular, to constructive dialogue with NATO on parity and transparency principles."
He added that "we have a lot of common issues [with NATO]; joint work on which fully meets Belarus’s interests."
Lukashenka -- who has ruled for 21 years and been called the last dictator of Europe -- said the fighting in Ukraine has shown that Belarus must have an army capable of protecting "its national interests."
"If need be, we have to be able to defend the independence and sovereignty of our country," he said.
Lukashenka added that additional finances will be allocated for the ongoing systemic renovation of arms in Belarusian armed forces which is scheduled to be accomplished by 2020.
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adrtho
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Quote:Russia Sold Off $22 Billion in U.S. Bonds to Slow Economy's Slide Quote:Russia jettisoned $22 billion worth of U.S. treasury bonds in December as the Kremlin scrambled for cash to battle a plunging ruble and fund a crisis spending program amid an emerging recession.
The sale means that Russia currently holds just $86 billion of U.S. government debt, the lowest level since 2008, according to figures released late Wednesday by the U.S. Treasury Department Quote:"The Central Bank needed cash," said Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist BCS Financial Group in Moscow. "Treasuries are one of the most liquid holdings you can have." Quote:Russia's foreign currency reserves — including the contents of two rainy day oil funds — fell by $124 billion last year as the Central Bank struggled to prop up the ruble.
Moscow had $368.3 billion of international reserves on Feb. 13, the latest date for which figures are available, according to Central Bank data. That is the lowest level since April 2007 http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/516265.html
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adrtho
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We must be ready to die for Belarus — LukashenkoQuote:Belarus will conduct a wise and cautious policy but the country must be able to protect its sovereignty, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said in a speech to the commanders of the Armed Forces of Belarus on Thursday, February 19, reports Espreso TV, citing the Belarusian news agency BELTA.
“If necessary we must be able to defend the independence and sovereignty of our country, but we will never get involved in senseless confrontations with anyone else. We will conduct a wise, cautious policy: we do not want what belongs to others and we will not give up what belongs to us. This is the essence of our policy. If we have to die for it, then we will die for it,” he said.
He noted that after the events in Ukraine it has become clear to everybody that “we must feed our soldiers and army and we must have enough to secure our own interests.” He added that “we must keep our powder dry.”
“No one can think that all is well today, that here we are great peacemakers, intermediaries, and that someone will pay us for it and that we will continue to have peace and tranquility. Do not be fooled. I emphasize again that no one can guarantee us a peaceful life. We will do everything for this life to be peaceful, but we must have an efficient army,” Lukashenko concluded.
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biscuitman1871
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Can I just say that I really enjoy the frank and open exchange of views on this thread.
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paulbagzFC
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Am I doing it right?  -PB
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adrtho
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paulbagzFC wrote:Am I doing it right? -PB yes, but we coming up to 1980s all over again for Russia in the 1980s, USSR could borrow money from Western Banks, now they can't
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aussie scott21
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adrtho
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Russia is burning through its dollar stockpile Quote:Russia's foreign-currency reserves slipped another $6.4 billion last week as the central bank and the finance ministry continue the battle to prop up the ruble. At that rate, the country's remaining $368.3 billion will be all but gone by this time next year.
Russia's reserves have fallen by more than $100 billion, from $469.9 billion in June, as the collapse in global oil prices sent the Russian currency tumbling. Quote:To protect the country's businesses from the collapse in the value of the ruble (falls in the currency increase the cost of imports and foreign-currency debt), the central bank and the finance ministry have been selling dollars and euros and buying up rubles to prop up the latter's price. While this helped to stabilise the currency, the falls have already thrown Russia's banking sector into crisis and forced the government to cut its budget by 10% this year.
The big question now, however, is why Russia still has to burn though foreign-currency reserves when the oil price appears to have bounced back from its recent lows. Quote:The Bank of Russia told the Russian news service TASS: "The reduction of international reserves for the week by $6.4 billion, or 1.7%, is a result of repo transactions in foreign currency and reduced balances on the Russian finance ministry and with the Bank of Russia, as well as the negative balance of foreign exchange and market revaluation."
That suggests the currency remains under pressure and, even at over 62 rubles to the dollar, it may still be above what the market feels is fair value. If the oil price is set to remain structurally lower, this is a battle the central bank is unlikely to win and could simply mean it is throwing money away rather than letting the currency find its own level
And that's a problem. If the falls continue at about $6 billion a week, they will be all but exhausted by this time next year. However, at least one key threshold — sufficient reserves to cover at least six months of imports in case of emergency — may have already been breached. Quote:Alexei Kudrin, the former Russian finance minister and current chairman of the Committee of Civil Initiatives, wrote a blog post in the daily newspaper Kommersant last year in which he said available reserves could barely cover six months of imports at current prices:
Six months of Russia's imports are worth approximately half of the current level of international reserves, which are valued at around $454 billion. If we subtract the reserves used to insure the government's budget, the remaining value of reserves only slightly exceed the amount needed to pay for six months of imports.
Some analysts say six months is the critical level to insure the Russian population against the possibility of severe hardship in case the crisis deepens and the Russians are deprived of foreign goods. (Russia imports a large number of staples including butter, cheese, and meat.) Though imports are likely to contract by as much as 30% in 2015 because of the country's recession but with the level of reserves likely to continue to fall for the next few years we could cross even a much reduced total.
The crisis in Russia is not over. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-burning-dollar-stockpile-184600869.html
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adrtho
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adrtho
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Nato must prepare for Russian Blitzkrieg, warns UK generalQuote:Nato forces must prepare for an overwhelming Blitzkrieg-style assault by Russia on an eastern European member state designed to catch the alliance off guard and snatch territory, the deputy supreme commander of the military alliance has warned.
Openly raising the prospect of a conventional armed conflict with Russia on European soil, the remarks by Sir Adrian Bradshaw, second-in-command of Nato's military forces in Europe, are some of the most strident to date from Nato. They come amid a worsening in relations with the Kremlin just days into a second fragile ceasefire aimed at curbing continued bloodshed in Ukraine's restive east between Kiev's forces and Russian-backed separatists.
Speaking at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank in London on Friday, Sir Adrian warned that as well as adapting to deal with subversion and other "hybrid" military tactics being used by Russia in Ukraine, allied forces needed to be prepared for the prospect of an overt invasion.
Sir Adrian is a former commander of British land forces and the most senior UK officer in the alliance.
He added: "After which the threat of escalation might be used to prevent re-establishment of territorial integrity — this use of so-called escalation dominance was, of course, a classic Soviet technique."
Deploying overwhelming force at short notice has become a hallmark of recent Russian military exercises. Russia's 2013 "Zapad" ("West") war game involved the rapid mobilisation of 25,000 troops in Belarus and the enclave of Kaliningrad for a conflict with a Nato state.
Nato forces must prepare for an overwhelming Blitzkrieg-style assault by Russia on an eastern European member state designed to catch the alliance off guard and snatch territory, the deputy supreme commander of the military alliance has warned.
Openly raising the prospect of a conventional armed conflict with Russia on European soil, the remarks by Sir Adrian Bradshaw, second-in-command of Nato's military forces in Europe, are some of the most strident to date from Nato. They come amid a worsening in relations with the Kremlin just days into a second fragile ceasefire aimed at curbing continued bloodshed in Ukraine's restive east between Kiev's forces and Russian-backed separatists.
Speaking at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank in London on Friday, Sir Adrian warned that as well as adapting to deal with subversion and other "hybrid" military tactics being used by Russia in Ukraine, allied forces needed to be prepared for the prospect of an overt invasion.
Members of the British Duke of Lancaster's Regiment, left, plan their movements against the enemy while a member of the Estonian Scouts Battalion looks on in a forest during the NATO "Spring Storm" military exercises.
Getty Images
Members of the British Duke of Lancaster's Regiment, left, plan their movements against the enemy while a member of the Estonian Scouts Battalion looks on in a forest during the NATO "Spring Storm" military exercises.
"Russia might believe the large-scale conventional forces she has shown she can generate at very short notice — as we saw in the snap exercises that preceded the takeover of Crimea — could in future not only be used for intimidation and coercion, but could be used to seize Nato territory," he said.
More from the Financial Times:
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Schäuble sets stage for Athens showdown
Sir Adrian is a former commander of British land forces and the most senior UK officer in the alliance.
He added: "After which the threat of escalation might be used to prevent re-establishment of territorial integrity — this use of so-called escalation dominance was, of course, a classic Soviet technique."
Deploying overwhelming force at short notice has become a hallmark of recent Russian military exercises. Russia's 2013 "Zapad" ("West") war game involved the rapid mobilisation of 25,000 troops in Belarus and the enclave of Kaliningrad for a conflict with a Nato state.
A snap exercise in Russia's eastern military district later the same year was meanwhile the largest since the fall of the Iron Curtain — it involved 160,000 troops.
Russia could potentially seize territory in a Nato state using its rapidly assembled forces — for example, the Russian-speaking enclave of Narva in Estonia — before the alliance had time to swing into action, forcing leaders to either declare war or swallow their pride.
Such a course of action would raise the prospect of a "slide into strategic conflict", which, "however unlikely we see that as being now, represents an obvious existential threat to our whole being", Sir Adrian added, hinting at the potential for nuclear confrontation.
The prospect of a brazen Russian attack is one of the key drivers behind Nato moves to speed up its ability to deploy sizeable military units in the event of a crisis. The centrepiece of the alliance's shift in policy following a summit in Wales in September is a "spearhead" brigade-sized rapid-reaction force capable of deploying within 48 hours.
Nato is preparing to deploy "force integration units" in each of its eastern European member states. They will act as eyes and ears on the ground as well as preparing the way for the rapid deployment of Nato forces should they be required by building links and logistical plans with local military units and commands. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102442785
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adrtho
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Russia cut to 'junk' by Moody'sMoody's has cut its rating on Russia to "junk," and says Russia's economy is headed for a "deep" recession in 2015. In a release late Friday, the ratings agency downgraded Russia's sovereign debt rating to Ba1/Not Prime (NP) from Baa3/Prime-3 (P-3). The rating outlook is negative. For Moody's, any bond rated Ba1 or lower is below investment grade, and considered a "junk" bond. Friday's action from Moody's follows a move from S&P to cut Russia's rating to "junk" late last month. In cutting its rating on Russia, Moody's cited the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, as well as the decline in oil prices and significant weakening of the Russia ruble this year as drivers of the downgrade. Moody's also said Russia's economic woes won't just disappear, saying it's "unlikely that the impact of recent events will be transitory." Moody's also cited unpredictable political dynamics, writing that there is a, "very low but rising risk that the international response to the conflict in Ukraine triggers a decision by the Russian authorities that directly or indirectly undermines timely payments on external debt service." Here's the full release from Moody's: New York, February 20, 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the government of Russia's sovereign debt rating to Ba1/Not Prime (NP) from Baa3/Prime-3 (P-3). The rating outlook is negative. This rating action concludes the review for downgrade that commenced on January 16, 2015. Moody's downgrade of Russia's government bond rating to Ba1 is driven by the following factors: (1) The continuing crisis in Ukraine and the recent oil price and exchange rate shocks will further undermine Russia's economic strength and medium-term growth prospects, despite the fiscal and monetary policy responses; (2) The government's financial strength will diminish materially as a result of fiscal pressures and the continued erosion of Russia's foreign exchange (FX) reserves in light of ongoing capital outflows and restricted access to international capital markets; (3) The risk is rising, although still very low, that the international response to the military conflict in Ukraine triggers a decision by the Russian authorities that directly or indirectly undermines timely payments on external debt service.The assignment of the negative outlook reflects the potential for more severe political or economic shocks to emerge, related either to the military conflict in Ukraine or a renewed decline in oil prices, which would further impair Russia's public and external finances. In a related decision, Moody's has lowered Russia's country ceilings for foreign currency debt to Ba1/NP from Baa3/P-3; its country ceilings for local currency debt and deposits to Baa3 from Baa2; and its country ceiling for foreign currency bank deposits to Ba2/NP from Ba1/NP. A country ceiling generally indicates the highest rating level that any issuer domiciled in that country can attain for instruments of that type and currency denomination. The first driver for the downgrade of Russia's government bond rating to Ba1 relates to the effects of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, as well as the fall in oil prices and of the ruble exchange rate on the country's economic strength and financial stability. In Moody's view, the existing and potential future international sanctions, the erosion of the country's foreign exchange buffers and persistently lower oil prices plus high and rising inflation will take a negative toll on incomes as well as business and consumer confidence. As a result, Russia is expected to experience a deep recession in 2015 and a continued contraction in 2016. The decline in confidence is likely to constrain domestic demand and exacerbate the Russian economy's already chronic underinvestment. It is unlikely that the impact of recent events will be transitory. The crisis in Ukraine continues. While the fall in the oil price and the exchange rate have reversed somewhat since the start of the year, the impact on inflation, confidence and growth is likely to be sustained. The authorities' policy response is gradually coalescing. However, policymakers confront a multi-faceted dilemma characterized by a falling exchange rate, sizeable capital outflows, declining economic activity and rising inflation. In Moody's view policymakers are unlikely to be able to resolve these policy tensions in order to reverse the economic decline. The monetary authorities face the conflicting objectives of keeping interest rates high enough to restrain the exchange rate and bring down inflation and keeping rates low enough to reinvigorate economic growth and bank solvency. While the interest rate cut in January coincided with a rise in oil prices that cushioned the otherwise negative initial reaction of the exchange rate, a too-rapid reduction in interest rates risks further currency depreciation and higher inflation, which would further compress domestic purchasing power and extend and/or deepen the economic downturn. Meanwhile, the authorities' revamped fiscal strategy will attempt to consolidate the budget to achieve balanced budgets at the lower oil prices and devalued exchange rates that now prevail. Details of this strategy will be made public in coming months. However, Moody's believes that financial conditions in Russia are inherently vulnerable to renewed volatility, which would in turn trigger fresh capital flight and further downward pressure on the exchange rate and the balance of payments. As a consequence, Moody's believes that the government will face substantial difficulty in dealing with the wide range of economic, fiscal and monetary challenges that the country is facing. SECOND DRIVER -- FURTHER EROSION OF FISCAL STRENGTH AND FX RESERVES The second driver for the downgrade of Russia's government bond rating to Ba1 is the expected further erosion of Russia's fiscal strength and foreign exchange buffers. As the rating agency noted in January when initiating its review for downgrade, the government's ability to sustain its fiscal and financial strength was the main factor supporting Russia's investment grade rating. Following the review, Moody's expects further deterioration in the government's financial strength despite the authorities' fiscal policy responses. Taking at face value the government's plans to proceed with its planned fiscal consolidation for 2015, Moody's expects a consolidated government deficit of approximately RUB1.6 trillion (2% of GDP) as well as a widening of the non-oil deficit. The deficit would likely be financed by drawing on the Reserve Fund, which is specifically designed for circumstances when oil prices fall below budgeted levels. Moody's also expects that widespread demands for fiscal easing are likely to emerge if, as the rating agency projects, the recession persists into 2016. In a scenario in which the government would turn to borrowing in the domestic market to finance at least a share of these deficits, higher spending could result in an increase of the debt-to-GDP ratio to 20% or more. In the rating agency's view, therefore, the government's debt metrics are likely to deteriorate over the coming years, albeit from low levels. Low debt and robust external buffers have been the key factors sustaining the rating in investment grade until now, given the country's relatively lower economic and institutional strength and higher exposure to event risk than Baa-rated sovereigns. Moreover, under the stress exerted by a shrinking economy, wider budget deficits and continued capital flight -- in part reflecting the impact of the Ukraine crisis on investor and depositor confidence -- and restricted access to international capital markets, Moody's expects that the central bank's and government's FX assets will likely decrease significantly again this year, cutting the sovereign's reserves by more than half compared to their year-end 2014 level of approximately USD330 billion. In a more adverse but not unimaginable scenario, which assumes smaller current account surpluses and substantially larger capital outflows than in Moody's baseline forecast, FX reserves including both government savings funds would be further depleted. While the government might choose to mobilise some form of capital controls to impede the outflow of capital and reserves, such tools are not without consequences. Capital controls, which might include a rationing of retail deposit withdrawals and/or prohibition upon repatriation of foreign investment capital, would weaken the investment climate further and undermine confidence in the banking system. THIRD DRIVER -- UNPREDICTABLE POLITICAL DYNAMICS The third driver for the downgrade of Russia's government bond rating to Ba1 relates to the very low but rising risk that the international response to the conflict in Ukraine triggers a decision by the Russian authorities that directly or indirectly undermines timely payments on external debt service. Moody's acknowledges the current and prospective efforts by the country's policymakers to contain the economic and financial consequences of the many challenges they face: the Ukraine crisis as well as the collapse in global oil prices and the ruble exchange rate. However, the sovereign faces predicaments that few would have predicted six months to a year ago, and the government's reaction to a possible escalation of these challenges is difficult to foresee. In Moody's view, the risk of policy decisions being taken that pose a threat to the repayment of Russian debt obligations remains very low, but that risk is rising. http://www.businessinsider.com/moodys-cuts-russia-to-junk-2015-2Edited by adrtho: 22/2/2015 12:37:49 AM
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adrtho
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Russia anti-west rally they bus in 1000's from the villages Quote:A rally is under way in Moscow to condemn the "coup" in neighbouring Ukraine, a year after the downfall of its pro-Russian president.
Russian state media heavily promoted the rally and march with the slogan "We won't forget! We won't forgive!".
Ukraine's protests ousted pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014.
Speaking on Russian TV, he condemned "lawlessness" in Ukraine, saying the situation there had caused him "very many sleepless nights".
Since Mr Yanukovych's departure, Russia has annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula and is accused of backing rebels in eastern Ukraine.
Quote:Anti-Maidan'
The Moscow event is styled as an "anti-Maidan" march - a reference to Ukraine's pro-EU protests that started on Kiev's central Independence Square, widely known as the Maidan.
Among those at the rally was Ukrainian rebel politician Oleg Tsarev, who marched alongside the leader of Russia's Night Wolves motorcycle club, Alexander "The Surgeon" Zaldostanov, a prominent Russian nationalist.
Groups of demonstrators gathered in central Moscow on Saturday under patriotic Russian banners.
One group of marchers in military fatigues could be seen with a placard which read "Maidan is an illness - we're going to cure it!" Another placard read "Maidan benefits the enemies of Russia!" http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31561769Edited by adrtho: 22/2/2015 12:36:46 AM
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adrtho
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Australian Defence talks to address Russian aggressionQuote:THE “growing aggression of Russia” will be a key component of talks today between Defence Minister Kevin Andrews and his British counterpart Michael Fallon.
Speaking during an inspection of the new HMAS Canberra yesterday, Mr Fallon cited Russia’s placement of warships off north-eastern Australia at the time of the G20 summit last year and Russian bombers flying over the English Channel two days ago as cause for concern. “Terrorism in the Middle East and elsewhere will be a major part of the talks tomorrow,” Mr Fallon said.
“But we will also be talking about the growing aggression of Russia. We’ve seen ships down here and flights in the Channel this week.”
The defence ministers spent yesterday afternoon inspecting the HMAS Canberra, the navy’s largest vessel, which was moored in Jervis Bay, 200km south of Sydney. Mr Andrews and Mr Fallon — along with their minders and media — were flown there in a Hercules C-130 military transport aircraft.
Both Australia and Britain are in the process of ordering or constructing new navy vessels, with Britain currently constructing two similar ships to the HMAS Canberra, which began operating in November last year.
“Australia as ever is slightly ahead of us but we have a couple of carriers under construction to catch up,” Mr Fallon told reporters yesterday.
“There is plenty to talk about as we both prepare our defence reviews this year.”
The HMAS Canberra is an amphibious assault ship.
It has a 200m flight deck to allow for helicopters and gunships to take off and land from the vessel.
A key role for the vessels is expected to be humanitarian disaster relief, with the on-board hospital bigger than many regional hospitals.
The vessel weighs 27,831 tonnes unloaded, is 231m long and has a range of almost 10,000 nautical miles.
An emotional Captain Jonathan Sadleir, the captain of the HMAS Canberra, said he and the ship’s crew were “privileged” to have the ministers visit the vessel and the move was greatly appreciated. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/defence/defence-talks-to-address-russian-aggression/story-e6frg8yo-1227204377634Russia running practice nuke bombing run on the UK, will get you to start talking
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bustar
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How can Russia be junk & the yanks AAA?
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adrtho
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bustar wrote:How can Russia be junk & the yanks AAA? same reason why Switzerland can make investor pay to buy Swiss bonds , because they are safe
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adrtho
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aussie scott21
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Quote:442 have been contacted by the legal departments of both The Telegraph and The Mirror in the UK about the unauthorised posting of their content on these forums.
No content from the above websites are to be posted here. If so, the threads/posts will be deleted upon detection by the mods.
Thank you.
Edited by StiflersMom: 13/9/2014 05:30:42 PM
Edited by Joffa: 20/11/2014 09:45:01 PM
@Don_Erebus
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Wanderers - The Complete Story Trilogy
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adrtho
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a very pro-ukraine web site , but in a nutshell, the web site say, that Russia giving rebels over 700 main battle tanks, they know this, by using social media and Russia media, videos https://en.informnapalm.org/tank-manual-for-the-ato-zone-part-2-how-many-tanks-were-captured/to put this into perspective, Australian Army only has 55 main battle tanks , British Army 400 main battle tanks ..now, most of theses tank are old T-64 and T-72, but still, the cost of a old working tank is still $million dollars .The cost of this non war on Russia will bring about a collapse faster
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adrtho
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scott21 wrote:Quote:442 have been contacted by the legal departments of both The Telegraph and The Mirror in the UK about the unauthorised posting of their content on these forums.
No content from the above websites are to be posted here. If so, the threads/posts will be deleted upon detection by the mods.
Thank you.
Edited by StiflersMom: 13/9/2014 05:30:42 PM
Edited by Joffa: 20/11/2014 09:45:01 PM
@Don_Erebus
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Wanderers - The Complete Story Trilogy yes, that why i've only put the headline and link, and no content
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adrtho
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can read it at theguardian Quote:British military personnel are to be deployed to Ukraine for the first time in the next few weeks to provide advice and training to government troops, David Cameron announced before a committee of MPs Quote:The Ministry of Defence said up to 75 personnel would begin to deploy to Ukraine from next month as part of the training mission. Four separate areas will be covered by the deployment: medical, intelligence, logistics and infantry training.
Personnel involved in the training elements could spend one or two months in Ukraine, with a command and control deployment lasting up to six months.
Cameron said there would be “deeply damaging” consequences for all of Europe if the EU failed to stand up to Putin on Ukraine, predicting that the Russian president could turn against the Baltic states or Moldova if he was not reined in now. Quote:The prime minister said the UK was not at the stage of providing “lethal weapons” to Ukraine, but hinted that might change if the US changed its view.
“We have announced a whole series of non-lethal equipment – night-vision goggles, body armour – which we have already said that we will give to Ukraine,” he said. “Over the course of the next month we are going to be deploying British service personnel to provide advice and a range of training, from tactical intelligence to logistics to medical care, which is something else they have asked for. Quote:He said there was no doubt about Russian support for the rebels. “What we are seeing is Russian-backed aggression, often these are Russian troops, they are Russian tanks, they are Russian Grad missiles. You can’t buy these things on eBay, they are coming from Russia, people shouldn’t be in any doubt about that.
“We have got the intelligence, we have got the pictures and the world knows that. Sometimes people don’t want to see that but that is the fact.”
He added: “If there was major further incursion by Russian-backed forces and effectively Russian forces into Ukraine, we should be clear about what that is. That is trying to dismember a democracy, a member of the United Nations, a sovereign state on the continent of Europe, and it’s not acceptable.” http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/feb/24/britain-to-send-military-advisers-to-ukraine-cameron?CMP=share_btn_twEdited by adrtho: 25/2/2015 05:53:40 AM
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adrtho
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Quote:David Cameron
If Russia is going to leave the rules-based system of 21st century, then they have to start thinking about whether it's going to be in the 21st century system when it comes to investments, when it come to banking, when it come to clearinghouses. Swift ..no swift , no World cup in Russia
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adrtho
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Barclays chops Russia from bond index, crimping its market accessQuote:LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Barclays will remove Russian foreign currency debt from its global bond indexes, putting it off-limits for many international investors, after Moody's became the second agency to downgrade the country's credit rating to junk.
The move adds to a list of financial headaches for Russia, already hit by currency weakness and a looming recession as it absorbs the double blow of Western sanctions over Ukraine and a halving of world oil prices since last June.
When bonds are excluded from an index, conservative tracker funds are no longer able to buy or hold them, something that can lead to heavy selling and will make it harder for Russia to raise money on international capital markets.
"The downgrade does signal more limited access and higher costs for hard currency borrowings," said Peter Marber, Boston-based head of emerging markets investments at fund manager Loomis Sayles, who added his team were "active traders" in the market for Russian bonds and would not be forced to sell because of the Barclays move.
An estimated $2 trillion worldwide is benchmarked against Barclays' Global Aggregate indexes. Adding in sovereign and corporate debt in roubles and hard currency, Russia has a 0.7 percent weight.
Rival index provider JP Morgan did not respond to a request for comment on whether it planned to exclude Russian bonds. It has previously said Russia could be removed from the investment-grade portion of its GBI-EM index for emerging currency bonds, a portion to which around $5-7 billion in investment fund money is benchmarked.
INDEX RESHUFFLE
Barclays will remove 11 Russian bonds, 10 dollar-denominated and one euro-denominated, when it reshuffles its indexes at the end of February, it said in a note late on Monday.
This hard currency sovereign debt will no longer be eligible for the bank's Investment Grade Global and Euro Aggregate indexes, but local currency rouble-denominated bonds - still rated at investment grade - will continue to be eligible for the Global Aggregate.
Moody's cut Russia to Ba1 from Baa3 on Friday, citing the impact of the Ukraine crisis, weak oil prices and the rouble. Last month Standard & Poor's cut its rating to a non-investment grade BB+.
"The markets have priced in the downgrade since Christmas, with spreads only widening a little on the news. The street chatter is Russian credit is trading more with oil prices than country-specific headlines," Marber said.
Yield spreads on Russian debt over U.S. Treasuries, the premium claimed by investors in comparison to safe haven bonds, have widened by around 75 percent over the last six months and stood at around 553 basis points on Tuesday.
On Russian markets, which had been closed for a holiday on Monday, the rouble and shares fell on Tuesday as local investors got their first chance to act on the Moody's downgrade.
On international markets unaffected by the holiday, the rouble recovered some of its poise on Tuesday while Russian sovereign dollar bonds also staged a partial recovery, having sold off on Monday.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Saturday the Moody's cut would not have a serious additional impact on the capital market as Russia's local currency rating from two other major agencies remained at investment-grade level.
"The exclusion of Russia from certain investment grade indices will inevitably bring some selling pressure, with the key question being exactly how much," said Robert Simpson, Emerging Market Debt portfolio manager at Insight Investment.
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adrtho
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last Expat in Russia, please turn the lights out :lol: Is The Party Over? Sanctions And Economic Slump Expedite Expat Exodus From RussiaQuote:MOSCOW – Nash Tavkhelidze has been in the expat party business since the 1990s. And in the age of sanctions it looks like the party’s over.
Tavkhelidze is the co-owner of Krisis Zhanra, a legendary nightclub and bar in Moscow normally heaving with Western expatriates. There, over the years, he’s witnessed swarms of foreigners living it up in the Russian capital. But, these days, those throngs are clearing out, he says.
“Last year was a disaster,” said Tavkhelidze, who co-founded Krisis Zhanra in 2005. “Just a couple of guys come now and then, but most of them left.”
Westerners living in the Russian capital say the exodus has been visible in the wake of the Ukraine crisis, sanctions, and a sagging economy. Quote:According to the Federal Migration Service, the number of foreigners residing in Russia – excluding refugees fleeing the war in Ukraine — shrank by 417,000 between January 20, 2014 and January 20, 2015.
That’s a drop of almost 5 percent. And what’s more, a large chunk of the leavers hail from the West.
In particular, the numbers of nationals from some Western countries have plummeted by around a third and sometimes even by almost a half. The figures, reported by the RBK media holding company, do not distinguish between tourists and expatriates. But they are nevertheless striking.
From January 2014 to January 2015, the number of German citizens decreased by nearly a third, from 348,539 to 240,113.
Over the same period, the number of U.S. citizens in Russia fell by 36 percent, down to 79,337; the number of British nationals is down by 38 percent, to 68,627; the number of Finnish citizens has fallen 39 percent to 46,157; and the number of Norwegians has dropped by 48 percent. Quote:Alexis Rodzianko, president and CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia, put the leavers into three categories.
One is expatriates working for large international companies who are being sent home as part of cost-cutting measures in anticipation of a recession in Russia.
Another category includes foreigners working in sectors hit hard by Western sanctions like energy.
And finally, there is the natural process in Western companies of gradually replacing costly expatriate staff with lower-cost local hires. Expats planning to leave gave a variety of reasons for doing so. Quote:“I just don’t like where this country is going,” said an Australian lawyer, who declined to give his name.
One British lawyer said he and his colleagues are being hit with pay cuts. Another said too many of his top clients were placed on the Western sanctions list.
One French citizen who also declined to give her name said she is paid in rubles by a U.S. construction company. The plummeting Russian currency, she added, amounted to a pay cut she could not afford. Quote:Sechin Sivankutty, a Moscow resident of seven years who manages Hudson Bar, an expat haunt, says business is down by about 40 percent.
“Most of the people have been withdrawing and getting out of this country. It’s noticed at the bar,” Sivankutty said.
And back at Krisis Zhanra, Tavkhelidze reminisced about the good old days.
“I remember Moscow in the 1990s when it was really great times,” he said. “Maybe now we should say that this is the end of an era, which I hate to say, but I don’t know what’s going to happen next.” http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/02/russia-expat-exodus/
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adrtho
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long live the US Second Cavalry Regiment US troops just paraded along the Russian border. Is that as insane as it sounds?Quote:On Wednesday, the US Army did something that seemed, and maybe was, dangerously provocative: it paraded soldiers and armored vehicles from the Second Cavalry Regiment in the Estonian town of Narva, just 900 feet from Russia's border.
The Washington Post's Michael Birnbaum, reporting the incident, explains, "Narva is a vulnerable border city separated by a river from Russia. It has often been cited as a potential target for the Kremlin if it wanted to escalate its conflict with the West onto NATO territory."
There is a logic to this sort of demonstration, which is surely meant to show Russia that the US is sincerely committed to the defense of Estonia, which is a member of NATO. In other words, it is meant to deter Russia from starting a Ukraine-style conflict in Estonia, which could plausibly spiral into World War Three. At the same time, such a demonstration is also dangerous, as it risks being misinterpreted by Moscow as an act of aggression and thus making war more likely. a long winded Germany news article, about appeasing Russia across the Russian boarder from Narva, is the Russia city of Pskov, home to a very large Russian Airborne Division :d ..the boarder zone is really beautiful , many lakes http://www.vox.com/2015/2/26/8109445/estonia-russia-armyEdited by adrtho: 28/2/2015 02:30:05 AM
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adrtho
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U.S. May Block More Russian Banks If Ukraine Cease-Fire Falters No World Cup in Russia when this happens Quote:(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government is considering whether to shut one or more Russian banks out of the world financial system if rebels backed by Russia continue to violate the cease-fire in Ukraine, two administration officials said.
Putting a Russian bank on the U.S. Treasury’s “specially designated national” list would be a major escalation of the economic pressure the U.S. is exerting on Russia to stop supporting the separatist rebels who’ve seized parts of eastern Ukraine. The action would bar U.S. citizens, residents and companies from dealing with the sanctioned banks and allow the U.S government to freeze any assets in American jurisdiction.
The impact, however, would be global. Foreign banks with significant business in U.S. dollars would be reluctant to risk running afoul of the restrictions, just as they were after the U.S. fined France’s BNP Paribas SA nearly $9 billion last year for violating sanctions against Iran, Cuba and Sudan.
“An SDN listing for any Russian bank that does serious business with the West -- and has correspondent and other banking and financial relationships -- would be a devastating blow,” said Juan Zarate, a former Treasury Department and White House official, who is now chairman of the consulting company Financial Integrity Network.
Both officials who discussed the sanctions deliberations said that blocking additional Russian banks would be a significant escalation and could create large repercussions, particularly in European economies. Such a move isn’t imminent, they cautioned, unless the Russian-backed rebels renew their offensive before a March 19 European Union summit.
The Obama administration blocked OAO Bank Rossiya in March 2014, calling it the “personal bank” of Putin’s inner circle. Quote:U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and European Union President Donald Tusk, a former Polish prime minister, warned this week that new sanctions could be imposed.
The most extreme measure under consideration by President Barack Obama’s administration is shutting banks out of the Western financial system entirely, said two other U.S. officials, who requested anonymity because the policy discussion aren’t public.
“This would add a powerful economic hit longer-term,” said Robert Kahn, a former Treasury official who’s now a senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. Quote:Acting in concert last July, the U.S. and EU, started imposing restrictions on access to capital markets for several Russian banks. Those sanctions, which were tightened in September, prohibit long-term debt or equity financing by Russian banks, including the country’s biggest lenders, VTB Group, OAO Sberbank and OAO Gazprombank.
European leaders are discussing ways to put more pressure on Russia’s economy and its financial system. U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron said on Feb. 24 that the EU should consider sanctioning entire sectors of the Russian economy if the current truce in Ukraine fails. He also raised the possibility of barring Russian banks from the international financial messaging system used for most international money transfers. That system is run by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, known as SWIFT.
“Looking at the SWIFT banking issues is a big decision, but there is a logic for it,” Cameron said. “If Russia is going to leave the rules-based system of the 21st century, it will have to start thinking about whether it is going to be in the 21st-century system when it comes to investment, banking, clearing houses and the other things that make our world work.”
The U.K. first urged EU leaders to consider blocking Russian access to SWIFT in August, but the idea wasn’t pursued. The U.S. also has considered the idea, though the Obama administration leans more toward fully sanctioning individual banks if a decision is made to escalate the pressure on Russia, one of the American officials said.
Some U.S. lawmakers have been pressuring the administration to intervene more forcefully. At a Bloomberg breakfast in Washington Thursday, U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker said he’d support additional sanctions against Russia if there were any violation of the February truce agreement. He lamented that the U.S. hasn’t done more to provide Ukraine with defensive weaponry to withstand Russia’s advances.
“A long time ago, we should’ve been giving them lethal weaponry that they can handle,” said Corker, a Tennessee Republican. “I think we have not shown much moral fiber as it relates to Ukraine. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-27/u-s-may-block-more-russian-banks-if-ukraine-cease-fire-falters
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adrtho
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Russian ex-deputy PM and opposition leader Nemtsov shot dead in Moscow it has started Quote:MOSCOW (Reuters) - Boris Nemtsov, a Russian opposition politician and former deputy prime minister who was an outspoken critic of President Vladimir Putin, was shot dead meters from the Kremlin in central Moscow late on Friday.
Nemtsov, 55, was shot four times in the back, the Interior Ministry said. A police spokeswoman on the scene said he had been walking on a bridge over the Moskva River with a Ukrainian woman.
Putin condemned the killing and took the investigation under presidential command, saying it could have been a contract killing and a "provocation" on the eve of a big opposition protest that Nemtsov had been due to lead in Moscow on Sunday.
Police cars sealed off the bridge close to the red walls of the Kremlin and Red Square, and an ambulance was on the scene.
"Nemtsov B.E. died at 2340 hours as a result of four shots in the back," an Interior Ministry spokeswoman said by telephone.
A police spokesman on the scene said Nemtsov had been shot at from a passing white car that fled the scene. The woman was being interviewed by police.
Mikhail Kasyanov, a fellow opposition leader, told reporters at the bridge: "That a leader of the opposition could be shot beside the walls of the Kremlin is beyond imagination. There can be only one version: that he was shot for telling the truth."
Kasyanov, a former prime minister under Putin, called Nemtsov a "fighter for the truth".
OPPOSITION TO WAR IN UKRAINE
Nemtsov had been quoted as saying he was concerned that the president might want him dead over his opposition to the conflict in Ukraine. Sunday's opposition march is intended as a protest against the war in east Ukraine, where pro-Russian rebels have seized a swathe of territory.
Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told Russian news agencies that the president had expressed his condolences and ordered the security agencies to investigate. He said Putin had called it a "brutal murder".
Another opposition figure, Ksenia Sobchak, said Nemtsov had been preparing a report on the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine. The Kremlin strongly denies allegations by Kiev and Western capitals that it has sent troops and advanced weaponry to back the rebels.
Peskov said Putin had called it a "brutal murder".
Like other opposition leaders, Nemtsov was a fighter against corruption. In other reports, he condemned massive overspending on the Sochi Winter Olympics by the Russian authorities and listed the many state buildings, helicopters and planes that Putin has at his disposal.
Nemtsov was also one of the leaders of mass rallies in the winter of 2011-12 that became the biggest protests against Putin since the former KGB spy rose to power in 2000.
Nemtsov briefly served as a deputy prime minister under president Boris Yeltsin in the late 1990s, when he gained a reputation as a leading liberal reformer. Edited by adrtho: 28/2/2015 08:57:17 PM
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Slobodan Drauposevic
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So have your predictions of Russia defaulting come true yet adrtho? It's only been about 8 months.
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adrtho
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Draupnir wrote:So have your predictions of Russia defaulting come true yet adrtho? It's only been about 8 months. it 5 year...that how long a default bet goes for Russia economy is a fucking disaster...you have zero idea how bad it is, and how bad it will become....50% of Australian expat who work in Russia have left in last 8 months ...it just a fucking disaster for all western business in Russia if you need to show how dumb I'am....you should just concentrate on my spelling ....all the other stuff i will be right to a certain degree Edited by adrtho: 10/8/2015 03:17:28 AM
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adrtho
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Draupnir wrote:So have your predictions of Russia defaulting come true yet adrtho? It's only been about 8 months. but it's good that you need to bring up 7 month old topic, to show how dumb I'am :lol: Edited by adrtho: 10/8/2015 03:19:38 AM
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lukerobinho
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oil price dropping, Norway about to take a big hit
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paladisious
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adrtho wrote:50% of Australian expat who work in Russia have left in last 8 months Source for this?
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adrtho
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paladisious wrote:adrtho wrote:50% of Australian expat who work in Russia have left in last 8 months Source for this? sorry, personal source....but i doubt it's a trade Secret, and something in Australian news would have said about it
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adrtho
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Quote:In January 2014, the community of foreigners from North America and Western Europe numbered 1,137,000. A year later, it had dwindled to 746,580. http://blogs.wsj.com/expat/2015/06/09/expats-leave-moscow-amid-russias-economic-downturn-and-ukraine-crisis/so that a 34% drop for all EU and Nrt Americ in 2014 (year to year)...it not hard to imagine, there been many more who have left since Jan 2015 Russia is a fucking disaster for western investment there..
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adrtho
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lukerobinho wrote:oil price dropping, Norway about to take a big hit they will over time, but Norway right now is taken over Russia , as the main Gas Supply to Europe..I know the Lithuanian were 100% Russian gas 2 years ago , and now they are zero
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