What on earth are you on about? :laugh: Trying to score points all the time makes you look foolish and shows you don't actually make good faith arguments.

Ahh yes, 5head rusty the ScoMo adviser.

-PB

Yeh because an ideological failure like ScoMo was never going to wind them back lol

-PB

Imagine going off half-cocked. How loathsomely pathetic.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-11/coronavirus-scott-morrison-economy-jobkeeper-wage-subsidy/12232294

And as if anyone expected this payment to go on indefinitely anyway.

I guess ScoMo isn't listening to Rusty anymore.

Rofl



-PB

It’s official: The economy was weak before the COVID-19 crisis

A persistent myth pushed by a government mired in nostalgia for its we-nearly-had-a-surplus days is that the Australian economy was strong before the COVID-19 crisis hit.

On Wednesday the Australian Bureau of Statistics busted that myth.

The ABS March quarter wages growth index – measured before the coronavirus whacked the economy – eased back to show growth of 2.1 per cent for the year.

For someone on the median wage, that translates into a rise of 1.7 per cent after tax.

The consumer price index measure of inflation for the same year was 2.2 per cent.

Thus the real take-home pay of someone on the median wage went backwards by half a percentage point.

Living standards fell.

The measure of a strong economy is rising living standards, not falling. And it was worse than that for many.

Our second and third biggest employers are retail and construction respectively, together accounting for about one in every five employees.

Both industries had wages growth of just 1.8 per cent, before tax took its bite.

Weak wages growth is the inevitable reflection of the weakness those major industries were suffering.

Falling real, take-home wages is the outcome of a soft economy, an economy relying on population growth to avoid stalling.

Annual wage growth slows to 2.1% in March quarter 2020 https://t.co/5hNm4USFwf

— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) May 13, 2020

The standout growth industry, lifting the average, has been “health care and social assistance” with its wage index up three per cent.

The private sector overall has been going nowhere, meeting no one, doing nothing. Capital’s real wages strike is steadily eroding living standards.

And that was before the ’Rona Recession.

In the words of eminent economist and former top public servant Professor Michael Keating: “Australia, like many other countries has been experiencing secular stagnation for some years because of inadequate demand, which in turn has been due to low wage growth.

The experience of this recession will have made this problem worse, and it is unlikely that it will be reversed with a continuation of present policies.”

Professor Keating is sceptical about the Reserve Bank’s central scenario of the 15 per cent fall in household consumption in the present half year being recovered over the next two years.

“A substantial number of households and businesses will have drawn down on their savings and/or accumulated increased debt, in which case they will be looking to make continuing economies in their discretionary expenditure, and thus spending less,” he wrote in the Pearls and Irritations newsletter.

“More generally, given the recent history of income growth and the outlook for the future, a 15 per cent rate of recovery in consumption, as projected by the Bank, appears extraordinarily ambitious to me.”

Professor Keating suspects unemployment will be higher than the government or RBA forecasts.

Combined with population growth halving, he expects recovery from this recession will take longer than the authorities project.

“Furthermore, even a more modest rate of recovery would be jeopardised if the government moved to tighten up its support too soon and resumed its quest for budget surpluses,” he writes.

“The longer-term outlook for the Australian economy is that the secular stagnation that we have been experiencing may well get worse.

“Australia really needs to take this opportunity to change course, but will it? The track record of this government does not inspire confidence.”

Tuesday’s economic statement by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg tended to confirm Professor Keating’s fears, already highlighting “paying down the debt”.

“We won’t pay down this debt – we will only grow our way out of it,” commented an economist who prefers to remain anonymous.

“Austerity will over time make it worse. The faster we grow, the quicker the debt will fall against the only yardstick that matters, nominal GDP, and we can stop worrying about it. I think Frydenberg’s words matter for what they say about the mindset.”

While the government is pledging a couple of hundred billion dollars for safety nets and cushions to limit the depth of the recession, the Treasurer is leaving it up to market forces to create employment when those nets and cushions are removed.

On that basis, unemployment will remain high for several years, wages growth will fall or cease altogether, consumer demand will correspondingly wither and business will batten down the hatches further, concentrating on cutting costs rather than investing.

Trimming corporate taxes, industrial relations reform and “red tape cutting” will achieve nothing.

To repeat a point made in this space yesterday, with such an economic outlook, it is astounding that Mr Frydenberg confirmed the government doesn’t even intend to increase the infrastructure budget announced a year ago when it was boasting of tightening fiscal policy – recording a surplus.

Infrastructure spending is far from the only issue, but it serves as a prime symbol of the government’s recovery policy vacuum beyond September.


https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2020/05/14/michael-pascoe-wages-coronavirus/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020200514

-PB

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/treasurer-admits-massive-reporting-error-for-jobkeeper-program/news-story/61fbca48ac5cf7de638941c83e938504

Surely this is good news.  The media and Albo trying to blow this up the way they are is why politics is fucked in Australia.

Yes - in one way it is - but to blame a $60 billion miscalculation on businesses who applied for the scheme is a straight out lie, The $130 billion JobKeeper package was announced BEFORE businesses were asked to apply. 

It's $130 billion - just Joshing - its $70 Billion.

Still better to be 60 less than 60 more.

Which is why I said yes. But in a time when trust is paramount why lie? It just seems to be the default position.

It seems like a forecasting difference... They estimated the need to relief would be twice as much as the actual. Yes, the numbers are big but I’m glad they overestimated for this one and we were well under.

Seriously? This is the interpretation people are going with? They budgeted for $120 billion and in the process excluded some industries and workers because they "couldn't afford it". I don't believe there's a conspiracy here, but they're grossly incompetent.

Biggest treasury cockup in Auspol history.

-PB

Look at some of the numbers we were forecasting for coronavirus. We were estimating much more in numbers. If the 130b was based on those forecasts, isn’t it reasonable to expect that the numbers are off by a fair margin?

Forecasting of coronavirus infections is a lot more complex. Estimating the payment is way simpler and is not linked at all to the number of infections, it's not much more complicated than get the number of employees affected by business shutdowns (e.g. hospitality, gyms ...), multiply it by 1500 (the payment), and multiply it by the number of weeks the scheme will run for. The ATO and treasury has this data. Some discrepancy is understandable but not a number that is $60 billion out.

I guess we'll wait and see what the damage to the economy is by not having this stimulus but there was a whole lot of ideology involved to exclude some of the industries they did from job keeper.

I think the ATO and Treasury took a worst case scenario forecast with businesses being shut down to get to these large numbers. I know the ATO have contacted several large companies to discuss the payment arrangements only to realise that those companies were not eligible. Based on an article from the ABC, the difference is centred around 1000 large businesses. Not entirely unreasonable and also rather ironic given the waste that is proclaimed by the Libs with the Rudd stimulus.

As for the ideological aspects. I agree. The most obvious was the casual workers not being included. 

The PM today explained the mistake as getting a quote from a contractor and then getting a revised quote. Barnaby Joyce talked about it in terms of a credit card. This might sound all folksy but actually highlights the problem. These are both microeconomic examples.

The problem is this a macroeconomic problem. With business activity down the government should be spending the money. To not do so will mean the recession will be longer and deeper and will end up costing us all more money. Only when business activity starts returning should the government be withdrawing from the market.

Agree with this. Would love to see some major capital works going down to get people working and at least have something to show for it as a country. But that is unlikely to happen...

Literally gobshite economic managers lol

-PB

PB has similar posting style in this thread as libel/paulc.....

-PB

you could tell I was looking at you like that lol.....

What a slap in the face

Has been posited before.   https://forum.insidesport.com.au/2189797/TheMultiSpeculationThread?PageIndex=35

Forgotten what it was like to have Decentric posting here.

-PB

was a hoot going back that thread.
Notes to mention
Miss JLM
Decentric no matter who another I didn't mind contributing whereas others think otherwise
and pb c maybe should add d one day dodgy, when you have a qldr change alliegence to vuck there is something not right...Mmmmm

ol Decentric's post from that thread
paulbagzFC - 3 Mar 2019 9:46 PMIs this what split personalities look like?
-PB
The split personality  of PaulBagz and Paul C.
*Both conveniently live in Queensland.
* Out of 14 000 odd 442 accountholders , what is the probability of two posters posting as Paul?
*Paul B and Paul C conveniently have the second part of their name B and C being next to each other  in the alphabet.
*Paul B and Paul C  conveniently rhyme with each other  - there is a low probability of this.
* Both Pauls use the word 'the'  more than any other word in the alphabet . Ditto with 'is' and 'to'.
* Both Pauls  have similar levels of competence in  literacy skills in the English language, dialectical ability, phrasing and rhythm of sentence structure.
* Both Pauls use a degree of sophistry by constructing nebulous and contrived arguments that pretend to disagree  with each other's perspectives. They have a lot in common!
* Paul C and Paul B , both have an excellent sense of humour and fun. They quickly get humour, resulting in both Pauls being similarly placed well away from the autism spectrum!
Paul B = Paul C.

aok - 8 Mar 2019 3:24 PM
paulbagzFC - 8 Mar 2019 12:26 PM
The PaulB/C both protest too much, methinks.
The memes and faux dislike are just a clever ruse to throw us off the scent.  And, your identical cunilinguist styles have led to the uncovering of this forum's greatest multi cover up.
I agree.  Dodgy fucking Qld'ers both/one of them.  Proof positive.  
"Nail 'em up I say, nail some sense into them."

kek

-PB

Out of that list that he wrote I honestly can't tell if it's a pisstake or the real thing.

*Paul B and Paul C  conveniently rhyme with each other  - there is a low probability of this.
* Both Pauls use the word 'the'  more than any other word in the alphabet . Ditto with 'is' and 'to'.

? ? ? ! ! !

Member since 2008.

😂😂😂😂  good ol d. He makes trump look normal