If only there were some system that could be set up to promote a team into the top tier based on merit......

Oh I know ...... the richest countries in the world do so well in football.

Money talks

Yeah having rich owners and the right geographic spread is very important to the future of soccer in this country....  

Please no more Sydney or victoria 

Canberra will be the next team in for sure, plus one more team from either Woolongong, Tasmania, Gold coast, Ipswich, North Queensland, Sunshine Coast, or even a second team based in Brisbane or another team from Melbourne.

With mega money behind a bid a team from the South of Sydney is also possible as Sydney FC will be at the new stadium, but SC will oppose the bid for sure.

The final decision on who is offered entry will come down to the financial backing behind the bid.

I think the next 6 are...

canberra
ipswich
woolongong
auckland
hobart
cairns or Townsville or Gold Coast

New teams:-
2023:                                           
13. Ipswich Utd   14. Canberra 
2025:  
15. South Melbourne  16. Football Tasmania 
Wollongong to be considered as well.

^^^^^^^^^^

GyFox, thanks enjoyed reading that, so sobering lessons to learn in there..

I read quite a lot of academic research articles and papers and one that I read last week dealt with a model the authors developed that predicts which clubs will get into financial distress.  They verified it against the history of club failures in different leagues and the model showed a 90% success rate.  In part of their conclusion the authors, 2 Spanish academics from the University of Malaga, stated:-

"The model developed in this study has shown that low liquidity, high leverage, poor sports performance and small size of the club market are the best predictors of the distress of football clubs."

Clubs getting into financial distress has been a big concern in Europe for a number of years and there has been a fair amount of research into it recently.  I think something like the model mentioned above could be used as part of any semi pro or pro club's annual licensing approval and for assessing whether a club that wins promotion meets the financial requirements for the higher league.

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0225989

ACT, has a population a tad over 400K, they have league & Union sides...further the AFL play the Great Waste of Space their a bit...

While I have no real objection to a Canberra side, I don't share what appears to be the accepted wisdom that its a shoe in to be a success.

They will have to work extremely hard.

I am amazed at times how a team or an idea will pick up and seemingly valid questions just are not asked. 

I am concerned that if another nrl team comes in (Brisbane Bombers) which has been mooted, in a season or two, along with the Broncos and the Roar sharing winter space at Lang Park, that won't work. This over-use of the stadium would not be the case in SA or WA. Mind you, I personally want to see another SE Qld team like Ipswich Utd. If Roar does play more out of Redcliffe, they can be perceived as more a north team.
I just don't see a derby developing between Roar vs Gold Coast, in a massive stadium like Robina or Lang Park even.

Curious to why you think having two Perth teams in HBF or two Adelaide clubs playing at Coopers is any different to having two Brisbane based teams playing out of Lang Park?

I personally believe a follow up Brisbane team is a crucial next expansion, whether is 13/14th team or one of the 15/16th teams. However a clear distinction is required between Roar and a new club. Or its highly possible you fall down a similar route with Victory and City, no clear differentiation, no clear reasoning to support either side. Sydney and Wanderers however allow for a passionate call to both sides of Sydney to whether they support and stand up for there side of the city.

A secondary Brisbane team would be brilliant in the situation there was ideal stadiums in both the north and south sides. However due to finances this doesnt exist, so another alternative may be Ipswich, or returning to using Gold Coast as an option. But Brisbane/QLD stand much further ahead in demand for another side compared to SA and WA.

I get that Canberra have long history of football in this country, there is an excellent backer for the Capital Region fc consortium. I agree that this entity
should be team 13 to enter the A League.
Team 14 though, looking at criteria, if a must have for entry is to have a reasonably sized rectangular stadium that is up to standard, in and around Brisbane would be out.
Roar could probably strike a deal to keep playing more matches out of Redcliife. A second team might have to come out of Sunshine Coast or even Townsville due to their stadiums, which are underutilized.. Is there sufficient demand for a team from either of those parts of Qld though? Otherwise, perhaps a West Adelaide, sharing Coopers stadium or Fremantle City sharing the new stadium with Glory.

Agree that Team 11 had no stadium funding in place, but it’s still questionable that Western United do either. 

Completely agree, Team 11 and Macarthur were the two best, in terms of Sydney and Melbourne. Team 11 however had no stadium and no promise of stadium for next few seasons and still could be at risk without one. I know Western haven't built theres and its continuously delayed, however they had the options of Geelong and Ballarat and the FFA definitely viewed that as a greater expansion then if Team 11 came in and camped at AAMI/Marvel and possibly never managed to move out for the next 5 plus years.

(Apparently its still happening, it was listed on a government document in relationship to economic stimulus following covid, as an importance to boost jobs/economy, could mean some fast tracking hopefully and a start by the end of year as Melbourne recovers from covid)

Western United haven't amazed with there stadium selected and in terms of expanding the league, but the a-league probably saw the shorter term benefit more valuable with the decline, then a longer term benefit which may not prevent the interest and viewer decline for the short term. 

With Sydney's current displacement, Southern Expansion isnt ready yet, possibly as Sydney return further north to Allianz, the southern region may be more open to a team, especially a NSD team. Macarthur is disconnected enough that is very minimally intrudes on wanderers and provides a genuine expansion so to me is the better option. The foundation so far has been managed well and has approximately 3k paying foundation members already.

Fox can take a back seat, of which they did, not their call on expansion and gbye Charlie after next season. For one Wollongong cannot be attached to Southern Sydney. That entity would of been St George and Illawarra amalgamated, as is in the NRL, same philosophy. This is not Rugby League, we instead have the true FootbalI. I barrack for no team btw, only the progress of the competition itself.

Team 11 was light years ahead of Western United in terms of its bid. Community engagement was a strong element of its offering.

Let’s face it, Western United’s bid was based on spin about its stadium, and the FFA jumped at the renders and concept, along with what was likely the higher license fee. 

I would have like Fosters team and probably Team 11.

But this is a bit of gossip really. Fox presented a carrot to FFA to have teams in Syd and Mel tv. (Wolves miss out).

There would have been diabolical outrage if this same document came out and those two were brought in. 

So so this was FFAs choice, it still would have been with those two but the stigma of “Fox Sports chose” would live on.

By picking markets Fox has influenced the choice anyway.... and now they leave.

Thought this was an interesting piece of info. Lucy Zelic had documents on TWG show saying Fox Sports preferred Team 11 and Southern Expansion to come in last expansion phase.

To them it is a meaningless sideshow is my point, whether there’s an FFA Cup or NPL National Finals is irrelevant. 

Not the same. We have a national cup

Fox struggle to acknowledge the A-League these days, let alone the NPL.

But lets be honest, I don’t really see Fox talking about the WAFL, SANFL or VFL even though they feed into the AFL system. Most broadcasters will only care about the ‘product’ in front of them that they paid to show. The rest is nothing but a sideshow they ignore.

One major problem imo is Fox have not acknowledged NPL during their broadcasts. They focus on their “product”

Rolling finals result of matches and even goal scorers names or NPL able imo would legitimize the leagues in many viewers eyes when NPL is in season. Why wouldn’t football fans be interested in that? 

That's probably right.
Worth recalling that the final years of the NSL were averaging crowds of around 3k (I think?  not 100% sure)
I've always thought that that may not be a bad thing to aim for in the NSD.
If our 2nd division is matching what the NSL once got, then you'd call that a big step forward just by itself.

Hard to determine just how well received a second division will be. Whether those involved in the clubs joining the competition jump onboard will be interesting to watch, but the only way I see many taking it seriously is when their club has a chance for promotion.

The is due is that a promotion and relegation model likely won’t be possible for some time after the competition gets up and running, but there could always be promotion as expansion to the top tier based on set criteria, with on and off field considerations. Could take some time to get those sitting on the fence to jump on board if that’s the case.

Not sure where things are at with the NSD, appears to be on the back burner for the moment.
I think we all know by now that we need a viable NSD before we can introduce P&R (which probably means P&R is at least a decade away, and that's being optimistic).
Just found some interesting figures on twitter, these are attendances for the WAFL's opening round of games this year (I'm assuming this is WA's mens aussie rules, but I don't know for sure).
Anyway, these are decent numbers for a state comp in Australia's 4th largest city (during the current time).
It got me thinking, wouldn't we be happy for an NSD to be getting similar numbers consistently across a whole season?  And would that be enough to make the NSD viable?

Peel vs Perth at Rushton Park - 3,499
Subiaco vs Claremont at Leederville Oval - 2,304
Swans vs West Perth at Bassendean Oval - 2,916
South vs East Freo at Fremantle Oval - 4,002

If the NSD cannot be viable with crowds of around 4k, then that's the end of any hope of ever getting P&R.

Would need to happen organically. Can’t see it happening as clubs would want to retain their own identity.

nah they would be part of Australia Azzurri

Bne City could gain domestic favor but depends if they are Gladiators or not.