T minus 2 hours and 5 minutes till the booths close and the counting begins....

Hopefully the start of a few one term Liberal governments getting turfed out.

If labor win it will be interesting to hear Abbott spin the result as a decision made just on State issues

Edited by Joffa: 29/11/2014 04:29:57 PM

Abott is toxic in victoria , why do you think bishop and howard were campaigning yesterday

Easy win for Labor.

State Victorian government haven't done too much wrong and aren't hugely unpopular, but as you implied MVFC_Arsenal federal Liberal/Abbot is far too unpopular.

Edited by 433: 29/11/2014 05:46:24 PM

Yep , once the lib head honchos didn't want abott down here is when you know they gave up

Labor a certainty to form government by a healthy margin of at least half a dozen, with the greens to win as many as three lower house seats.

Nice one Tone!

one term Tony...

Fucking hell inner-city Melbourne :lol:

ABCs Green has called it for ALP. He never calls unless he's sure.

Just saw a Labor bint ranting on ABC24 about tackling the law and order problems that affect women and children. After The Greens announcing that they would be pushing for women to be paid more superannuation than men, politicians don't even seem to particularly care about hiding their misandry anymore.

Biggest positive from this election so far has been Geoff Shaw losing his seat being outpolled by both ALP and LNP candidates.

Why is there no talk about how the upper house will end up?

Harder to count.

Officials are broken into 2 counting teams, around 2/3 count lower house while the other third sort and count upper house. When all the lower house votes are counted and confirmed everyone jumps into upper house counting.

It's a shit job, I did it a few times when I was younger. Your day starts at around 6:30am and they'll be lucky to finish counting and leave by 10pm.

Edited by Notorganic: 29/11/2014 08:26:15 PM

one term Mike and one term Campbell first [-o<

Saying that, I would welcome Tony using his double dissolution trigger earlier.

Holy shit that chick in black in the background on the left of the Wendouree cross holding two different people's hands on the ABC right now looks as dtf as anyone I've ever seen.

Edited by paladisious: 29/11/2014 08:55:18 PM

Victorian state election: Denis Napthine should not have lost, not if history is any guide

Date November 29, 2014 - 8:44PM

Josh Gordon

Denis Napthine should not have lost. Not if history is any guide. The recriminations for the Liberal Party – at both the state and national levels – will be significant.

As the Coalition would be painfully aware, there has not been a single-term government in Victoria since 1955, when John Cain senior was ousted as a result of the great Labor split.

On Saturday evening, as the disastrous results for the government began to filter through the Liberal Party's consciousness, senior figures from both the state and federal governments were scrambling to apportion blame in the race to influence the first draft of history.



One senior state Liberal put it, state-specific factors played the biggest part, although the federal budget, and Tony Abbott's performance more generally, acted as a ball-and-chain for the Napthine government. As if it needed any more handicaps.

When the Coalition crept into power in November 2010, the consensus was that Ted Baillieu would significantly build on his narrow majority the second time around, just as Steve Bracks did in 2002 when he won 62 out of 88 seats after three years of minority government.

Baillieu controlled both houses of Parliament, which theoretically gave him a historic opportunity to implement his agenda. Moreover, he enjoyed considerable public good will after 11 years of Labor.

The best Labor might have hoped for in early 2011 was to rebuild and regroup, with a view to winning in 2018.

Yet somehow along the way things went disastrously wrong for the Coalition government.

At the time of writing, Labor looked likely to win at least 45 seats in the 88 seat house. That would represent the barest of majorities, with the Greens on track to win the seat of Melbourne and possibly Richmond.

One thing is obvious: this election has been a tremendous political achievement by Daniel Andrews and Labor, and a dreadful political fumble by the Liberal Party in a state that was once supposed to be the jewel in the Liberal crown.

The result – and the question of how the Coalition squandered its position after just four years – will be dissected and studied around the nation as a watershed moment in Australian political history.

There is no single thing that went wrong for the Coalition. A combination of factors played a role.

First, Baillieu's first two years were characterised by a palpable sense of inertia. Efforts were made to repair the budget and implement election promises. But by the middle of 2012, there was a palpable sense of despair in government ranks that the processes of government were not functioning as they should. In fact, they were failing.

Second, switching leaders mid-stream was always going to be difficult. The change from Baillieu to Napthine was never really properly explained to voters. People were simply asked to accept it. Typically history would suggest leadership transitions to unelected leaders are problematic. This was certainly the experience with John Brumby, Christina Keneally, Joan Kirner, Anna Bligh, Julia Gillard and Lara Giddings.

Napthine injected some energy, but he failed to provide a unifying theme as to what the shaky government with an unelected leader was about.

Napthine was always adept at reeling off a long list of achievements and projects (and it was a reasonably good list), but less capable of fitting all those pieces together such that they would come to be seen by the electorate as a coherent whole.

Third, for much of the past two years the parliament has resembled a circus, largely because the government failed to manage Geoff Shaw, who deserted the Liberal Party to become a balance-of-power independent. Not only did Shaw precipitate the demise of Baillieu (after declaring a lack of confidence in his leadership) he also dispatched Ken Smith as speaker (again after declaring a lack of confidence in his ability to control the parliament). Labor exploited this ruthlessly to inflict maximum pain for the government.

Forth, if all this was't bad enough, Tony Abbott added further led to Napthine's saddle bags. Abbott almost certainly severely damaged the Liberal brand in Victoria. The perception of Abbott was one of incompetence, unfairness and dishonesty. Small wonder state Labor campaigned hard to remind voters at every opportunity that Napthine and Abbott are on the same team.

Finally, simply put Labor ran a far superior campaign. The Liberal campaign lacked coherence, failed to engage most of the mainstream media and failed in terms of a ground offensive. In many ways it was a style of campaign which more belonged in the Kennett era.

Labor, which had less money, ran a strategically clever ground campaign using thousands of volunteers in key marginals.

It will be a tough task for a next generation of Liberals – including Michael O'Brien, Matthew Guy and Mary Wooldridge – to rebuild. Daniel Andrews too, will face challenges, including managing the factional system, the unions and – just maybe – the Greens in the parliament.

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/victorian-state-election--denis-napthine-should-not-have-lost-not-if-history-is-any-guide-20141129-11wvdg.html

Suzanna Sheed outta nowhere, ABC without a photo of her but Steve Bracks knowing who she was and why she got the vote (something to do with the Libs letting SPC close). He is a smart man.

3 % swing . The libs have to thank Tony for this .

Certainly the massive gains by the Greens in what used to be Labor heartland should be a message to the party to remember that they're supposed to represent the left. It didn't hurt them forming a majority government in Victoria this time, but come the next federal election it could make the difference.

As a Liberal voter, have to agree the Abbot Government shooting themselves in the foot all the time will have contributed to this. Wasn't Napthine winning the preferred Premier polling leading into the election?

Just hope NSW don't go the same way. Baird craps all over Robertson

Napthine 15 mins away from Liberal HQ. When's the concession speech?

Labor has had the two party preferred for Victoria since the first Galaxy poll on the 24th of October when they won 52/48, pretty close to the primary vote tonight. Have to go hunting for other sourceable results, but it's probably reflecting those numbers for some time, mostly reflecting the unpopularity of the EWL and of course good old Tone.

Stephen Jolly is a fine Australian. Also, his preferences will decide Richmond between Labor and the Greens. I imagine most people that would vote for him would pick their own preferences, so I bet that Richmond will probably be the last seat to get sorted out.

Napthine about to concede.

Naptnine

Going out classy. Federal Libs can only wish they had him instead of Abbott in Canberra, I can imagine.

Apparently we need the ewl according to the hun m but not releasing the business case doesn't help . Also somehow connecting mma to domestic violence and saying the cfmeu are thugs doesn't help . Hell I know plenty of trades who were going to vote libs as the ewl would've given them jobs but nope being called a thug irritated them

That's what you get for being stuck in the wrong century, hey.

nah

Edited by paladisious: 29/11/2014 10:03:58 PM

Yep . I've read the hun website m my god so many angry people , hell today's letters were full of pro libs and the hun had been campaigning for the libs . Had a two page editorial about how the libs have to been in power an the ewl is needed .

They always put their cards on the table on election day lol

Always . Now watch Andrew bolt lose his shit :lol:

I'm not so sure that federal had much of an impact. VIC has been tracking 48-52 long before Abbott came to power.

Agree labour was tracking ahead way before tones came in the picture but having tones as federal leader scared everyone down in lib hq .

Yeah he seems like a nice old bloke, if a bit embarrassing/cringeworthy at times... so basically he's like your Grandpa :lol:

Nothing wrong with being looked upon like a grandpa , Tony comes across like that creepy uncle you have .

[youtube]-MkRuV0aCcI[/youtube]

Tony Abbott sweats as Victorian voters cast harsh judgment

Date November 29, 2014 - 8:46PM
Mark Kenny

There will be no shortage of theories about what caused the Victorian result but you can safely bet federal Labor will target the toxic standing of the Abbott government as the key driver.

Normally such claims are transparently self-serving. Voters understand the delineation between state and federal governments and are loath to waste one trip to the ballot box pointlessly ventilating grievances about the other.

But this election has been different. Noticeably so. Without inspiring leaders, contrasting programs, or the presentation of a transformative vision, the local pre-election period has been vulnerable to national hijack. Some have dubbed the Victorian poll a "Seinfeld election" - a show about nothing.

More accurately it seems, this has been the palimpsest election - one where pre-existing state factors have been all but scrubbed or paled to be over-written with sexier federal issues. Even the hotly contested issue of the East West Link has been mired in the federal sphere with much of the money coming from Canberra and Tony Abbott letting it be known that the billions committed would not be available for re-deployment on public transport if Labor were to win.

For the hapless Napthine government, this federal focus could not have been more inconvenient. Why? Because it started behind and then weathered some of the least favourable background conditions at the hands of its hamfisted federal colleagues.

Canberra's ill-timed restoration of federal fuel excise rises early on (via regulation because he cannot pass it in the Senate) and the woeful mismanagement of the GP co-payment issue in the last critical days of the campaign were major embuggerances to Denis Napthine's pitch - no question.

In a state with the highest mainland jobless level, and where the federal government was already synonymous with insensitivity over Alcoa, and the automotive industry, the charisma-challenged Napthine option has struggled for an independent voice and been damned by association. And Napthine's risible incapacity to "educate" Tony Abbott, as Victorians might see it, has merely made things worse.

However it is in Canberra that the message from voters will be causing real heart-ache into the future.

As the nation's second biggest state, Victoria is already an under-performer for the coalition having supplied just 14 of the Liberal Party's 74 seats and just two more when you add in the Nationals to the joint coalition total nationally of 89.

For the first time in recent days, senior federal Liberals are suddenly alive to the risk of becoming one-term wonders. If it could happen in Victoria - after nearly 60 years - it can happen nationally.

It is, after all, what the polls have been saying since late 2013.

The involvement of the Prime Minister in the campaign was almost zero. Bill Shorten as a Victorian however, was heavily present.

Labor has made plenty out of that too.

But Shorten must know that the Victorian result could make his job harder if it sparks a change of approach by Abbott towards the more sensitive and explanatory style of government voters appear to be craving.

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-sweats-as-victorian-voters-cast-harsh-judgment-20141129-11wsgd.html

Voted for pizza in the local ballot
Drew smiley faces all over the state ballot paper

Hardcore.

-PB

With a crayon? You do know you shouldn't eat the crayons, they're toxic after all....

It's says non toxic :lol:

Yeah that's a bit like a Liberal Government saying the wont axe your job, or expect you to pay more in taxes or cut services ..... You know a lie!

Edited by Joffa: 30/11/2014 01:41:54 AM

So why wasn't this with all the other politics posts in one thread?

-PB

Joffa doesn't have enough market share on front page threads.

People blaming old mate Tones for this are clueless about state issues. Under libs public transport got cut in half, the East West Link fuck up was a major issue, cuts to tafe and uni have turned the public sector against him also his laughable last ditch effort to reveal a plan for the Docklands.

Made his own bed. Too bad we have no decent Socialist alternative.

Tones is gone next election. Hope he does the world a favour a kill himself.

It does, however, remind Tony Abbott that voters are prepared to chuck out a one term government if they aren't happy. That hasn't happened for quite a while.

I also think Tony Abbott's announcement about the GP tax the other day was deliberately designed to take the heat off the Victorian liberals. It didn't work.

The nationals also lost the seat of Shepparton to an independent, which is undoubtedly due to the SPC cannery debacle earlier this year.

I'l agree with that entirely.

I do have to say the election was won and lost on state issues. The Libs promised to spend five times more in Ballarat than Labor, had at least three times as much advertising in the area, yet the ALP got a seven per cent swing to them. The key thing here is employment, and in the last year alone unemployment nearly tripled. The ice problem has exploded in the last couple of years, and gdp per capita is falling. Getting a surplus is easy, the Coalition should never have suggested a surplus = a good economy. A surplus is great, but it is not a higher priority than jobs and economic growth.

Also don't underestimate the broken promise of making Victoria's teachers the best paid in the nation and the cuts to TAFE, they had a huge impact.

Edited by imonfourfourtwo: 30/11/2014 10:23:22 AM

Oh well, most Macos live in safe Labor seats in Melbourne anyway :lol:

Move to Richmond and vote for Steven Jolly then, he's a Socialist.

Maybe next time they'll run as a party.

Ah that old chestnut of having a surplus . People get sucked in with that word alone . A surplus doesn't mean money in the bank it just means government doesn't spend until election time . Also still can't belive still believe that government debt is like house hold debt

Yep - all that stuff must have hurt down there, especially in the regional towns. It's a bit rich being told the economy is doing well when unemployment is up, and you're cutting back on TAFE at the same time. Nobody buys it.

Also credit must be given to Dan Andrews. Labor ran an excellent and disciplined campaign. It's not easy to knock off a first term government, even when there's a leadership change. Steve Bracks didn't win a majority first time up, but Andrews has, which is pretty big.

It seems the greens vote in the inner city was a message that those voters want to make absolutely sure that the east-west link is cancelled.

The people who wanted the east west link were saying it'll ease congestion on the west gate bridge and are from the eastern burbs . No business case was put forward so people weren't buying it

Yep and as Steve Bracks was saying on the ABC coverage last night, there's not direct correlation between the government having a surplus in it's budget with the actual economy performing well, although politicians will conflate this whenever they can.

Lol yeah well the cheaper stage two section between the Western Ring Road and Citylink overground through some current industrial and greenfield areas would have been much cheaper would have eased congestion on the Westgate (for people in safe Labor seats) and yet that was put off until next decade, after the Lib's contractors scored a few billion for the first tunnel stage to serve the other side of town. Nothing suss.

Yep nothing suss

PUDDING FOR EVERYONE
[youtube]1bOSpJjM0RE[/youtube]

where can we line up for said pudding ??

I think he said that it's at Etihad Stadium

Can I throw said pudding at afl house ??

:lol: reading my coworkers hun and the amount of whinging that labour won is hilarious :lol: also the amount of rugs =r

Great win for labour on the back of the 10% green vote - very resounding outcome.