National second division is kicking off with or without FFA


National second division is kicking off with or without FFA

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Great to see, lets hope this gets of the ground as it could largely benefit our game in Australia.
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Monoethnic Social Club - 20 Jan 2021 9:03 AM
df1982 - 20 Jan 2021 7:11 AM

The existing club based bids indicated they would be happy with joining in a second division sure, as being clubs, their main goal is to compete at the highest tier available to them. Of the "new" concerns only Canberra did from memory as WU backers definitely stated that a second division would not be financially viable for the building of their famed stadium on which the whole deal hinged. Even the Canberra bid however, would have agreed to second tier entry only if there was a foreseeable link to the A-league via promotion in the future which based on what is proposed I dont see happening for decades yet. 

This is it.
If there is no possibility of promotion to the A-League for the next 15 years, then you'd have to rocks in your head to invest millions into a new club just to play semi-professional football in the NSD.

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df1982 - 20 Jan 2021 7:11 AM
Well almost all the bids in the running for the last A-League expansion have regularly indicated that they would be interested in applying for inclusion in a second division (except "Southern Expansion" and Fremantle, and I guess Team XI has now partnered up with City). What's in it for places like Canberra is the city would then have a team in a national sporting competition that the entire city can unite behind, which would be capable of battling for promotion to the top flight (and with decent backing would have a credible chance at achieving this).

The existing club based bids indicated they would be happy with joining in a second division sure, as being clubs, their main goal is to compete at the highest tier available to them. Of the "new" concerns only Canberra did from memory as WU backers definitely stated that a second division would not be financially viable for the building of their famed stadium on which the whole deal hinged. Even the Canberra bid however, would have agreed to second tier entry only if there was a foreseeable link to the A-league via promotion in the future which based on what is proposed I dont see happening for decades yet. 
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Well almost all the bids in the running for the last A-League expansion have regularly indicated that they would be interested in applying for inclusion in a second division (except "Southern Expansion" and Fremantle, and I guess Team XI has now partnered up with City). What's in it for places like Canberra is the city would then have a team in a national sporting competition that the entire city can unite behind, which would be capable of battling for promotion to the top flight (and with decent backing would have a credible chance at achieving this).
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df1982 - 19 Jan 2021 10:50 PM
Let's say the A-League doesn't expand to Canberra, and the NSD is taking bids for clubs. It receives a bid from the CRFC group, with major financial backing, the promise to unite the region's footballing community (like Newcastle or Adelaide have done) and push for promotion to the A-League, and a bid from Canberra Olympic. No matter how ambitious the latter is, and how well they've done on the park, the NSD would be mad to pick it over a broadbased bid. Why? Because Canberra is such a small city that it needs a club that unifies the entire football support base, whereas Olympic can only ever reach at best 10% of football fans in the ACT, since the rest already owe their allegiance to other NPL clubs, and probably hate Olympic with a passion, so will never switch over, much as South Melbourne fans wouldn't go over to supporting Heidelberg if they had managed to get a spot in the A-League (for example).

These kind of rivalries can work in the big cities which will be represented by a multitude of clubs regardless. But places like Canberra, Hobart, Wollongong, Gold Coast, Geelong, etc. need to have a one team-one town model (with lower level clubs in the area playing at NPL level or below). Wollongong and the Gold Coast already have this by dint of playing in large NPL divisions, but Canberra and Hobart are inhibited by the fact that they have their own state leagues, so are structurally prevented from having a unified team until they can play in a nationwide tier (short of playing in larger neighbouring states' NPLs, which maybe they should consider as an interim measure).

I get what you are saying and ofcourse the financial implications of a serious backer willing to throw money into "creating" a team in Canberra would certainly be hard to turn down but why would any investor do this? Why invest in a second tier comp that is going to have minimal revenue generation and probably zero return on investment and no guarantee of ever being linked up with the Aleague? The NSD isnt ultimately about generating profit or revenue and being accountable to shareholders and investors as the clubs pushing for this are all not for-profit, volunteer run clubs and any income stream goes straight back into the club which in turn creates an ecosystem of aspirational clubs that can better their coaching systems, administrators with more experience and professionalism and more importantly player pathways that can lead to the betterment of our national playing pool.

 Sure if this is a commercial success the money will improve professionalism to the point where regular NSD power teams may well become similar to Aleague clubs but I think that is far far into the future if ever. Its not so much who supports it if that makes sense (although obviously a bare minimium of support and interest are needed to pay for the bloody thing) as that is what function the Aleague serves, its more important that it exists..

Dont worry about little Canberra Olympic they may or may not be up to the challenge of national tier soccer but at least the path will be open to them. Of course there are supporters of other NPL clubs that hate Olympic, thats the beauty of it.... If none of the NPL clubs in ACT manage to get enough support behind them AND ambition to make it to the  NSD then clearly there is no market or appetite for national soccer in that market....  Your analogy of South and the Bergers is valid in that we both lost fans to the Victory but not all of them, many Iike myself in the early days, just switched off altogether and didnt pick any team... I know old friends that havent been back to the soccer for 16 years  but this talk of rejuvination has them excited to come back to Hellas. Well, for a club like Canberra Olympic they dont have to loose their fans to a new entity, they can keep their local rivalries and if good enough or strong enough they can ve promoted... Do you not think local ACT soccer will benefit wirh having  3 or 4 clubs all bashing in each others heads to get to the "top" be the big club, attract all the sponsors and best players? Competitiveness, it's a son of a bitch but it creates wonders.
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Let's say the A-League doesn't expand to Canberra, and the NSD is taking bids for clubs. It receives a bid from the CRFC group, with major financial backing, the promise to unite the region's footballing community (like Newcastle or Adelaide have done) and push for promotion to the A-League, and a bid from Canberra Olympic. No matter how ambitious the latter is, and how well they've done on the park, the NSD would be mad to pick it over a broadbased bid. Why? Because Canberra is such a small city that it needs a club that unifies the entire football support base, whereas Olympic can only ever reach at best 10% of football fans in the ACT, since the rest already owe their allegiance to other NPL clubs, and probably hate Olympic with a passion, so will never switch over, much as South Melbourne fans wouldn't go over to supporting Heidelberg if they had managed to get a spot in the A-League (for example).

These kind of rivalries can work in the big cities which will be represented by a multitude of clubs regardless. But places like Canberra, Hobart, Wollongong, Gold Coast, Geelong, etc. need to have a one team-one town model (with lower level clubs in the area playing at NPL level or below). Wollongong and the Gold Coast already have this by dint of playing in large NPL divisions, but Canberra and Hobart are inhibited by the fact that they have their own state leagues, so are structurally prevented from having a unified team until they can play in a nationwide tier (short of playing in larger neighbouring states' NPLs, which maybe they should consider as an interim measure).
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soccerfoo - 19 Jan 2021 5:59 PM
patjennings - 19 Jan 2021 5:38 PM

The only entities that could be ready might be Canberra and South Melbourne. Others may have to win entry via 2nd div.
I still do not know what homeground that is up to speed, a s/e qld team would use as things stand..
That one is the hologram to me, unsubstantial.

Count South out mate, where going all in for NSD,  maybe un 20 years or so when tbere might ve oro rel between tbe Aleague and below.
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df1982 - 19 Jan 2021 9:12 PM
Wolves would have to be one of the best prepared existing clubs for making the step up to A-League level. They have a great side on the pitch (national NPL winners in 2019), a perfect home ground, large support base, club history, and one of the country's best regional talent supply lines. They just need a backer, but there should support for an A-League team in the local business community.

By contrast, there's no way an existing NPL team from Tassie or the ACT could cut it even in the NSD. They will have to be represented by new broadbased entities, either in the A-League or NSD. If they don't make the cut for the A-League, then hopefully the NSD selection process will be open to this in under-represented regions.

It wont as long as AAFC have any say in the matter. 3,,000 min stadium, a juniors and women's setup,  academy, coaches with A license, technical director, a few years history of performance in npl, established links to community... these are the criteria the nsd will and should be founded on... Wollongong as I said will romp it home but which investor or franchisee is going to fork out to establish a club from scratch like this only to play in a second tier league? Much easier to say you represent a "Geographic area" pay the license fee (or at least promise to one day pay it) piggy back a junior setup from another npl team on the other side of the city and a womens one too and become an Aleague club.Thats what a "mainstream" Tassie or Canberra club should do, agreed.  Much better to keep the two leagues separate clubs vs franchises that way the new expanded franchise system gets a chance to grow to the optimal 16 geographically spread teams and also to give it a chance to mature and for the franchises to go in the direction their ownership group want to go with the entertainment side of things. NSD,  NPL, state leagues and below, all linked together, should be all about club culture first and foremost, No more dictating who does what in soccer, no more  classifying clubs by the league structure they are in but rather let them plot their own journey,  If for example, a club like Canberra Olympic wants to be ambitious, their volunteer board can sit down after Thursday night training, and work out how to raise revenue,  improve facilities, attract better players and make the  most  of the chance to join a national comp which would further increase their potential for revenue, etc etc. Or they can be content to sit in NPL ACT or State 1 ACT and just act as a local grassroots club that is happy to guide the love for the game the local kids have and proud to occasionally produce the odd A league or even Socceroos player... Linking all the clubs in Australia is a powerful thing mate, no need to worry about geographic mainstream representation when Darwin Rovers have the same avenue to the NSD as APIA Leichardt. If there is a true appetite for national league representation amongst a region, community, ethnic  or otherwise, they WILL find a way to climb to the top. If they can't or a specific area is not represented then they didnt want it badly enough or the demand is just not there so no loss anyway.
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soccerfoo - 19 Jan 2021 3:41 PM
Wonder if the Apl will expand the A League by two teams initially, besides the 12 initial teams that the FA will choose (with 4 after that) for the Second Division.
This is definitely a grey area. 
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My feeling is that they will expedite a round of expansion to 14 teams very quickly, probably in time for the 2022 winter season. Hence why the last couple of seasons have been 26 rounds, despite how awkward the season structures have been. They seem unwilling to go to 33 rounds with the current 12 team set-up, so going to 14 teams and a strahgt double round-robin makes sense. Hopefully they then go to 16 quickly as well, so we can at least get a semi-respectable 30-round season.
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df1982 - 19 Jan 2021 9:12 PM
Wolves would have to be one of the best prepared existing clubs for making the step up to A-League level. They have a great side on the pitch (national NPL winners in 2019), a perfect home ground, large support base, club history, and one of the country's best regional talent supply lines. They just need a backer, but there should support for an A-League team in the local business community.

By contrast, there's no way an existing NPL team from Tassie or the ACT could cut it even in the NSD. They will have to be represented by new broadbased entities, either in the A-League or NSD. If they don't make the cut for the A-League, then hopefully the NSD selection process will be open to this in under-represented regions.

I agree - my original post was miswritten 

patjennings - 19 Jan 2021 5:38 PM
soccerfoo - 19 Jan 2021 4:02 PM

Given the noises from Wollongong I would be surprised to see them along with Canberra announced as 13th and 14th for the A-League sooner rather than later and Tasmania *with Govt/Wilkie support" and another area announced as the next 2 potential areas provided they come up with the support needed.  Tasmania will be the problem child I think. . I think they will need Govt support but can't see govt support of the size needed for a NSD team. So does South Hobart become the feeder club to Tassie United with an upgraded stadium and South Hobart play in the NSD/TAS NPL on alternate weeks?  

1st line should have read 

Given the noises from Wollongong I wouldn't be surprised to see them along with Canberra announced as 13th and 14th for the A-League sooner rather than later 

calciopoli - 19 Jan 2021 6:02 PM
patjennings - 19 Jan 2021 5:38 PM

disappointing news.
along with canberra, they are the next obvious choices. (from a geographical/historical POV)

Yep - that's what I was trying to say.



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4 Years Ago by patjennings
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Wolves would have to be one of the best prepared existing clubs for making the step up to A-League level. They have a great side on the pitch (national NPL winners in 2019), a perfect home ground, large support base, club history, and one of the country's best regional talent supply lines. They just need a backer, but there should support for an A-League team in the local business community.

By contrast, there's no way an existing NPL team from Tassie or the ACT could cut it even in the NSD. They will have to be represented by new broadbased entities, either in the A-League or NSD. If they don't make the cut for the A-League, then hopefully the NSD selection process will be open to this in under-represented regions.
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calciopoli - 19 Jan 2021 6:02 PM
patjennings - 19 Jan 2021 5:38 PM

disappointing news.
along with canberra, they are the next obvious choices. (from a geographical/historical POV)

Aren't Tassie the bid that have Gov backing and that they would reconfigure a ground to being rectangle? Abit of a grey area.
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patjennings - 19 Jan 2021 5:38 PM
soccerfoo - 19 Jan 2021 4:02 PM

Given the noises from Wollongong I would be surprised to see them along with Canberra announced as 13th and 14th for the A-League sooner rather than later and Tasmania *with Govt/Wilkie support" and another area announced as the next 2 potential areas provided they come up with the support needed.  Tasmania will be the problem child I think. . I think they will need Govt support but can't see govt support of the size needed for a NSD team. So does South Hobart become the feeder club to Tassie United with an upgraded stadium and South Hobart play in the NSD/TAS NPL on alternate weeks?  

disappointing news.
along with canberra, they are the next obvious choices. (from a geographical/historical POV)
Edited
4 Years Ago by calciopoli
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patjennings - 19 Jan 2021 5:38 PM
soccerfoo - 19 Jan 2021 4:02 PM

Given the noises from Wollongong I would be surprised to see them along with Canberra announced as 13th and 14th for the A-League sooner rather than later and Tasmania *with Govt/Wilkie support" and another area announced as the next 2 potential areas provided they come up with the support needed.  Tasmania will be the problem child I think. . I think they will need Govt support but can't see govt support of the size needed for a NSD team. So does South Hobart become the feeder club to Tassie United with an upgraded stadium and South Hobart play in the NSD/TAS NPL on alternate weeks?  

The only entities that could be ready might be Canberra and South Melbourne. Others may have to win entry via 2nd div.
I still do not know what homeground that is up to speed, a s/e qld team would use as things stand..
That one is the hologram to me, unsubstantial.
Edited
4 Years Ago by soccerfoo
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soccerfoo - 19 Jan 2021 4:02 PM
Monoethnic Social Club - 19 Jan 2021 3:56 PM

New entities like say Canberra (Capital Region bid) and Tasmania (Sth Hobart fc) perhaps. They could then promote two out of the Second Division in afew years to get to 16 teams in the A League..
At Lakeside, I'll be in the blue & white section...lol!

Given the noises from Wollongong I would be surprised to see them along with Canberra announced as 13th and 14th for the A-League sooner rather than later and Tasmania *with Govt/Wilkie support" and another area announced as the next 2 potential areas provided they come up with the support needed.  Tasmania will be the problem child I think. . I think they will need Govt support but can't see govt support of the size needed for a NSD team. So does South Hobart become the feeder club to Tassie United with an upgraded stadium and South Hobart play in the NSD/TAS NPL on alternate weeks?  

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Monoethnic Social Club - 19 Jan 2021 3:17 PM
Coverdale - 19 Jan 2021 1:36 PM

32 EXISTING clubs, will agree to a selection process which, from my understanding, will take into consideration sporting performance over a period of time, suitability of home facilities, club administration set up, coaching standards and academy set up in place, women's team and technical director, financial capabilities etc etc. ALL things that not only did WU not have in place when granted a license in 2018 but also still doesn't have now 3 years later!!!...  Of these 32 clubs 12 will be chosen with another 4 to be added in consecutive years yet ALL these teams will then have a clear pathway to being able to gain promotion to this top league - with a timeframe AND a clear direction of what the process will be. Sure a few of the teams will be hard done by not being included in the first batch of 12 I expect that to happen for sure but even if South isn't chosen (which I doubt) at least we know what we have to do to get in.... A lot fairer than bidding for a license and despite meeting criteria and offering the same if not more money for a license being told that our bid was unsuccessful because ... well you all know my thoughts on that by now :)

it is wonderful news.
i too wonder about the selection process for this league. as you outlined, there are clear criteria but its hard not to see politics and self interest being factors.  they will need a very strong and transparent body to push it through, which hopefully will show the (f)fa what they should have been doing in the last decade and half. 


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Monoethnic Social Club - 19 Jan 2021 3:56 PM
soccerfoo - 19 Jan 2021 3:41 PM

two distinct leagues matey...  I dont think APL will concern themselves with this too much apart from trying to stop it from ever happening that is... Aleague expansion will clearly just be new franchise investment for the forceable future.... Olympic is better off joining the championship see you at Lakeside in two years? ahahahahahah

New entities like say Canberra (Capital Region bid) and Tasmania (Sth Hobart fc) perhaps. They could then promote two out of the Second Division in afew years to get to 16 teams in the A League..
At Lakeside, I'll be in the blue & white section...lol!
Edited
4 Years Ago by soccerfoo
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soccerfoo - 19 Jan 2021 3:41 PM
Wonder if the Apl will expand the A League by two teams initially, besides the 12 initial teams that the FA will choose (with 4 after that) for the Second Division.
This is definitely a grey area. 
(O-lym-pic!!)

two distinct leagues matey...  I dont think APL will concern themselves with this too much apart from trying to stop it from ever happening that is... Aleague expansion will clearly just be new franchise investment for the forceable future.... Olympic is better off joining the championship see you at Lakeside in two years? ahahahahahah
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Wonder if the Apl will expand the A League by two teams initially, besides the 12 initial teams that the FA will choose (with 4 after that) for the Second Division.
This is definitely a grey area. 
(O-lym-pic!!)
Edited
4 Years Ago by soccerfoo
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Coverdale - 19 Jan 2021 1:36 PM
Monoethnic Social Club - 19 Jan 2021 11:30 AM

You were complaining earlier about WI buying their way into the aleague now 32 clubs have a plan for a NSD of 12 teams so how is the selection going to be any different to the aleague and will you be opposed to that?

32 EXISTING clubs, will agree to a selection process which, from my understanding, will take into consideration sporting performance over a period of time, suitability of home facilities, club administration set up, coaching standards and academy set up in place, women's team and technical director, financial capabilities etc etc. ALL things that not only did WU not have in place when granted a license in 2018 but also still doesn't have now 3 years later!!!...  Of these 32 clubs 12 will be chosen with another 4 to be added in consecutive years yet ALL these teams will then have a clear pathway to being able to gain promotion to this top league - with a timeframe AND a clear direction of what the process will be. Sure a few of the teams will be hard done by not being included in the first batch of 12 I expect that to happen for sure but even if South isn't chosen (which I doubt) at least we know what we have to do to get in.... A lot fairer than bidding for a license and despite meeting criteria and offering the same if not more money for a license being told that our bid was unsuccessful because ... well you all know my thoughts on that by now :)
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Monoethnic Social Club - 19 Jan 2021 11:30 AM
someguyjc - 19 Jan 2021 10:47 AM

I suspect you may be right. Personally I would LOVE to have the Wolves in the NSD as it will rekindle an old rivalry and selfishly for me an away day I look forward to.

You were complaining earlier about WI buying their way into the aleague now 32 clubs have a plan for a NSD of 12 teams so how is the selection going to be any different to the aleague and will you be opposed to that?
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someguyjc - 19 Jan 2021 10:47 AM
Monoethnic Social Club - 19 Jan 2021 10:07 AM

The Wolves are a bit of an interesting one. They obviously tick more than enough boxes to be in either the NSD or the AL. However, they are not one of the wealthier clubs, which is why they pulled out of the running for the previous A-League expansion. That was with the FFA run league, the APL run league could be a different story. It will all depend on what the buy in is. If the licence fee is reasonable and/or they managed to secure some additional financial backing, I could see them having another crack, however I reckon they will take the lower risk route and focus their energy and resources on joining the NSD.


I suspect you may be right. Personally I would LOVE to have the Wolves in the NSD as it will rekindle an old rivalry and selfishly for me an away day I look forward to.
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soccerfoo - 19 Jan 2021 10:41 AM
melbourne_terrace - 19 Jan 2021 10:05 AM

The Npl 1 clubs need $950k to operate now, in a Second Division, the will need between $850-$1.6m (mainly through travel costs).
Lets hope they can afford to be part of it as they did put their hand up to join, no one is forcing clubs to join.

As per the white paper (and just like the A-League has always been), travel costs will be a league expense and not a club expense.
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Monoethnic Social Club - 19 Jan 2021 10:07 AM
df1982 - 19 Jan 2021 9:54 AM

I think a new, non-existing club based Canberra bid should aim for A-League inclusion ASAP!!!!! Same with one from Tasmania for what its worth. If any current  ACT or Tassie NPL clubs like South Hobart want to put their hands up for NSD inclusion then I don't think this would or should be an impediment. I dont know what Wollongong should do, I think they would be a shoe in for NSD but not sure if they would for A-League, I guess ultimately its up to them. A few years of weirdness is good mate, no problem there, at least the conversation is going from "old soccer, new football" to "lets see how we can all fit in this thing going forward" 

The Wolves are a bit of an interesting one. They obviously tick more than enough boxes to be in either the NSD or the AL. However, they are not one of the wealthier clubs, which is why they pulled out of the running for the previous A-League expansion. That was with the FFA run league, the APL run league could be a different story. It will all depend on what the buy in is. If the licence fee is reasonable and/or they managed to secure some additional financial backing, I could see them having another crack, however I reckon they will take the lower risk route and focus their energy and resources on joining the NSD.


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melbourne_terrace - 19 Jan 2021 10:05 AM

df1982 - 19 Jan 2021 2:18 AM

You're right they are light on it but the gate receipts from 2000 people is a hell of a lot than they are getting now in state NPLs.

I'd say there would be more work on that done when the final report is delivered to the FFA and more of the selection criteria is released.


The Npl 1 clubs need $950k to operate now, in a Second Division, the will need between $850-$1.6m (mainly through travel costs).
Lets hope they can afford to be part of it as they did put their hand up to join, no one is forcing clubs to join.
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df1982 - 19 Jan 2021 9:54 AM
Monoethnic Social Club - 19 Jan 2021 9:35 AM

Agreed, but it's going to be a bit messy. Should clubs like the Wolves or a Canberra side bid for the A-League or the NSD? Does one cancel out the other? Do they play a year in the NSD then shoot up to the A-League even if their on-field results are mediocre?

Maybe we just have to sit out a few years of weirdness before we reach the promised land: an A-League of 16 teams + an NSD of 16 teams + state-based NPL leagues, with automatic pro-rel between all three tiers.

I think a new, non-existing club based Canberra bid should aim for A-League inclusion ASAP!!!!! Same with one from Tasmania for what its worth. If any current  ACT or Tassie NPL clubs like South Hobart want to put their hands up for NSD inclusion then I don't think this would or should be an impediment. I dont know what Wollongong should do, I think they would be a shoe in for NSD but not sure if they would for A-League, I guess ultimately its up to them. A few years of weirdness is good mate, no problem there, at least the conversation is going from "old soccer, new football" to "lets see how we can all fit in this thing going forward" 
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df1982 - 19 Jan 2021 2:18 AM
Monoethnic Social Club - 18 Jan 2021 11:22 PM

I just finished reading the report too. There is one big absence in the financial modelling section: namely, club revenue. There is a listing of club expenses which looks pretty realistic (e.g., $450-800k for the playing squad costs), but no info on how much money clubs are expected to make, what kind of crowds they will get, sponsors, etc. Probably because the vast majority of top NPL clubs are heavily subsidised by social clubs, benefactors, juniors programmes, etc. They make barely any revenue at all from their senior side, and I'm not sure how much this will change in an NSD. Crowds might go up from the NPL, but I can't see too many clubs getting more than around 2000 spectators to a game at the most (SMFC might be an exception, but there won't be too many others).

I don't mean to sound too negative here: good luck to them if they think they won't go bankrupt joining an NSD.

You're right they are light on it but the gate receipts from 2000 people is a hell of a lot than they are getting now in state NPLs.

I'd say there would be more work on that done when the final report is delivered to the FFA and more of the selection criteria is released.



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Monoethnic Social Club - 19 Jan 2021 9:35 AM
df1982 - 19 Jan 2021 2:24 AM

Reading the room and the language of the report it seems that NSD will play out DESPITE A-League Expansion. I think this is a good thing for both "camps" so to speak. A-League can continue to seek out new entities/investors in regional areas and open up new markets in the entertainment/commercial side of the game and the NSD and below can look to solidify, get to a point of perhaps 16 NSD and 16 national 3rd division and perhaps one day, in the very far future they may even combine. All speculation at this stage and I am absolutely positive that the FA, PFA and APL will throw some major spanners in the works of the NSD going ahead (it is illuminating that none of these organizations has even acknowledged this report so far) , Lets see what happens in April hey?

Agreed, but it's going to be a bit messy. Should clubs like the Wolves or a Canberra side bid for the A-League or the NSD? Does one cancel out the other? Do they play a year in the NSD then shoot up to the A-League even if their on-field results are mediocre?

Maybe we just have to sit out a few years of weirdness before we reach the promised land: an A-League of 16 teams + an NSD of 16 teams + state-based NPL leagues, with automatic pro-rel between all three tiers.
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df1982 - 19 Jan 2021 2:24 AM
Will be interesting to see how the NSD plays out alongside A-League expansion. My preference, and I imagine most people's here, would be simply for the A-League to promote a team from the NSD each year till they hit 16, and then start relegating as well.

But if they're hooked on their license fees (how much are these worth now though, given that CCM and the Jets can't even be given away?), then maybe they will fast-track expansion to reach 16 within the next couple of years (say: 2022 for 13-14, and 2024 for 15-16). Then you'd think they would be amenable to pro-rel, since the big clubs would have a significant buffer before they have to worry about relegation dogfights, and the new clubs would know what they were in for anyway.

If so, A-League expansion should focus on regional centres not yet covered: Canberra, Wollongong, Gold Coast, and then either Hobart or Auckland (depending if we can get away with another NZ side in the comp). And the NSD will be composed mostly of second tier sides from the major cities, which is what the report indicated was likely.

Reading the room and the language of the report it seems that NSD will play out DESPITE A-League Expansion. I think this is a good thing for both "camps" so to speak. A-League can continue to seek out new entities/investors in regional areas and open up new markets in the entertainment/commercial side of the game and the NSD and below can look to solidify, get to a point of perhaps 16 NSD and 16 national 3rd division and perhaps one day, in the very far future they may even combine. All speculation at this stage and I am absolutely positive that the FA, PFA and APL will throw some major spanners in the works of the NSD going ahead (it is illuminating that none of these organizations has even acknowledged this report so far) , Lets see what happens in April hey?
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df1982 - 19 Jan 2021 2:18 AM
Monoethnic Social Club - 18 Jan 2021 11:22 PM

I just finished reading the report too. There is one big absence in the financial modelling section: namely, club revenue. There is a listing of club expenses which looks pretty realistic (e.g., $450-800k for the playing squad costs), but no info on how much money clubs are expected to make, what kind of crowds they will get, sponsors, etc. Probably because the vast majority of top NPL clubs are heavily subsidised by social clubs, benefactors, juniors programmes, etc. They make barely any revenue at all from their senior side, and I'm not sure how much this will change in an NSD. Crowds might go up from the NPL, but I can't see too many clubs getting more than around 2000 spectators to a game at the most (SMFC might be an exception, but there won't be too many others).

I don't mean to sound too negative here: good luck to them if they think they won't go bankrupt joining an NSD.

Your right, they are a little light on forecasting revenue but in my opinion that is sort of understandable as in this climate it is hard to predict with any certainty. 32 currently operating clubs seem to think they can make a go of it, and sure I guess maybe a few will fall by the wayside overspending but this is a risk they will just have to take. Let them live or die by the sword I say, if there are clubs ready to go in the tiers below then no real harm to the competition or the footballing economy.
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