"I don't think there is anyone who does not want expansion the argument or arguments are about timing of expansion and who gets a look in... not expansion itself."

I dont want expansion. I believe the very concept is dead. Closed leagues require expansion. There is no (good) future in a closed league. Ive been following alot of MLS guys on twitter now and expansion is a problem for USA even with their 300million more population and $$.... MLS is the canary in the coalmine. 

I guess you are talking about P & R.

Again my guess there is no one who does not want it ... the argument is timing... and the structure of P & R.

Its beyond simplistic to assume Australia has the structure to support multi divisions with P & R today or in the near future.

There are three basic issues which I will get to, however you cannot ignore how P & R developed in the first place as it was not their at the start it is a concept that evolved.

P & R evolved out of competitions that had many sides as a way of breaking them up. The key was a number of well supported and capitalised sides. In Australia we are nowhere near this... there is that issue broadcasters really don't like if say we only have one Perth side and it goes out and next year the only Adelaide side goes its not a national broadcast in the Australian context. 

So the argument is about the journey, and how to get there.

What would be good is for some leadership from FFA on this to lay down markers and create the pathways... 

My journey / idea is something like this.... I think you may not agree you may think mine could do with a little more speed. However do look at my capital  requirements. 

Create a 16 Team A-League within 6 years.

In this 6 years determine key markers for P & R.

In this six years develop a Second division.

Next 5 years

Run the A-league maybe even expand to 18 teams.

Get Div 1 & Div 2 fully functioning and capitalised.

From year 12 out monitor the progress and when the plants alien commence P & R... my guess between 15 to 18 years away.

 
My capital requirements are, obviously money, a certain size fan base, members, marketing record, acceptable stadium access.

18 years 18 clubs? Lol what is it with 18. Heres another 18. A div2 can be up and running by 2018/19.

Theres no point expanding the hal without an eye on the next move, or postponing P/R for another 20 years. The HAL wouldve died many deaths in that time.

Anyway its impossible to even properly discuss expansion right now on the cusp of FIFA deadlines. We know the model will undergo some kind of restructure, and needs to in order for expansion to actually happen.  We also know the HAL Clubs, NPL Clubs and Vic & Nsw feds are all on the same team. There will be a 2nd divison and there will be some kind of expansion, as all said parties share these agendas. A tweak of the cost model and we basically have more HAL teams overnight. And im sure between the APFCA and AAFC they can find a sponsor or two help get div2 off the ground.

And btw your evolution of P/R theory falls flat when you look at new world footballing countries in Asia. They were mandated by AFC, and they implemented. We have the clubs for a second division. We are stuck with the dilemma of who gets a coveted spot. A good problem to have. The only real question is, when is P/R actually implemented. The magical 10/18 years? The one point ill give you is the TV deal. I accept that we would have to wait it out for the next 6 years.

I do think its interesting though that you have these stipulations on existing clubs (size fan base, members, marketing record) but not for brand new out of the box franchises.

Imo for pro rel you need 14 (minimum) in A-League for 26 games and 10 (minimum) for div 2.

To have a functional system.

Agree. Totally doable.18 teams is preposterous. 

14 is ok because there are the finals. Even if the league ever did go independent they won't be scrapped, so the top teams are looking at 26+2/3.

The league I follow now has 16 teams but used to have 14. 13th & 14th down and 12th played 3rd in a home and away series.

14 is much harder and more competitive imo than 16. There are many teams under pressure for big periods of the season, especially the start.

I don't mind the English setup either where the 2nd division has more teams. You could keep A-League at 14 and look to get the 2nd up to 16/18. Less teams in the 1st division is also cheaper for that league.

I would question though if you had 10 teams in the 2nd whether 3 teams could go up. It would be very generous but perhaps help the 2nd division be more engaging in its infancy.

It didn't need a response. The comparisons to superleague are an attempted smear on football, nothing else. There's no basis for comparison. The superleague war was instigated at the behest of the broadcaster (Murdoch), and involved existing top flight teams who capitalised on the situation to stick it to the administration. No HAL clubs are suggesting breaking away from the HAL, no broadcaster is backing the second division proposal, no broadcaster is seeking direct ownership of the clubs unlike News LTD wanting a stake in all RL franchises, and the clubs have clearly shown this is a second tier competition and not a direct competitor to the HAL. Furthermore, FIFA rules simply don't allow the league structure that operated in the superleague war. For example, the ARL banning superleague players from international tournaments is insta-ban material in football.

@ Bohemia

Maybe it didn't need a response but I think it's good it got one. While there are people out there solely with an intent of doing Football harm there are a larger number who do harm unintentionally through thinking like this - I'd actually put Gallop in that category and some well intended posters like Midfielder.

The conventional Australian thinking is that you need an elite, ring-fenced top flight with at least one team in every capital. If you have that you shall have financial success and stability so it goes ...

I think that is correct for codes with low participation rates, low number of semi-professional/amateur clubs, and for codes where the physical demands of the sport provide a wide disparity in capability so pro/rel and expansion become veryrisky propositions.

The FFA currently have their thinking wrong - they claim a football community of 7 million people and are singularly intent on "converting" them to HAL fans.

Meanwhile the 7 million are spread thinly between Socceroos and HAL at one end, and junior clubs/NPL at the other end - when the ffa said "you've gotta have a team" the vast majority said "thanks, already got one ... it's just not a HAL club".

So a long reply but what this debate is proving to me is we have to think differently and do it quickly - our priority should be the creation of a football pyramid that allows Wogga Wogga United to form tomorrow and reach the HAL within a decade and if that results in Victory playing in NPLV4 in the same time period do be it. The goal is to engage and grow the 7 million not alienate them and what's proven to work in our code all over the world is that principle. The 7 million will watch the HAL if they can dream of playing there one day ... ring fence it as an elitist competition and you'll get resentment, resistance and disinterest.

So the original article represented the old-school conventional thinking and the response challenges that.

It's distressing that the ffa are run entirely by people with that established view and seemingly treat any view that differs to that with contempt; and it's not actually holding a different view that's the problem - it's the treatment of different views that is a big problem because it's alienating the very people the ffa are trying to convert.

Respect your thoughts, but on this point I disagree as we're dealing with two (or 3) different journalists, the latter - Wilson and the other weirdo from the HUN I thankfully forgot the name of had distinctly different motivations to Masters. For what it's worth, I really don't mind Masters. He's biased, but he's just passionate about his game, and has that look in his eye anybody's grandfather gets when trying one on. He spins a tale but it's out of passion for his game. Contrast that with Wilson and the other pig who directly attacked the constituents of our game - the fans, with defamatory articles and a distinct undercurrent of racism. Suburban terrorists = "Not sayin nuffin, but gee whiz, ISIS and those out western way sydney siders seem to look real aloik, hey." Masters' opinions come from a good place, Wilson and Co's comes from hatred and ignorance.

Gallop had a responsibility as the game's administrator to defend his constituents, and in failing to do so he was morally culpable. Nobody need defend themselves against Masters, he just loves his game more than ours and preaches to the converted. Masters wouldn't hurt a fly, Wilson would have European Wasps deported.

Look I don't mind masters myself but the article itself was like a backhanded slap to football. Sure he is passionate about League but believe me whenever a journalist from an AFL or NRL background get a chance to put football down they will, even it is thinly veiled like masters article. Other than two good posts by Waz and  Bohemia. 

Rimbaud

Welcome the discussion .... 

Sometimes to get something to work everyone needs to agree to a starting point. 

If the starting point can be agreed then what follows hopefully becomes discussion.... 

When you look at key decisions my personal experience is to attempt to remove personal bias, personal wants and be as dispassionate in looking at the facts before you.

So my starting point is everyone agrees we need to go to P & R with a number of divisions.

The argument becomes then IMO two fold, how long will it take, and what rules to get in.

My other hope ... is hhhmmmm rrrrr how to explain .... I think this started about 30 years ago by the left when to win a debate you tried to destroy the credibility of who you where talking to... since then the right have taken this approach to a new level... talk back radio loves it... my hope is it can be discussed where people with  similar ideas and outcomes can look and think about what others are saying as no one has all the smarts... 

In my opinion we need to start pouring more money into a 2nd tier at the expense of the A-league. Otherwise P & R will never happen and I have mentioned this on more than one occasion. This is because the gap between the A-league and the NPL is already too large. Subsequent TV deals after this one will only exacerbate the problem and make the gap even larger. So while everyone says lets have P & R when we are ready, they don't know what they are talking about. At some point in the near future you have to start planning for it and this is the opportunity. Anytime someone says we should have P & R when we are ready in 30 years time doesn't know what they are talking about because by that stage it is already too late. If teams are not ready now and lets face it they are not, how are they going to be even more ready after 2-3 more tv deals where all the money is going to the A-league. We need a 2nd tier and it needs to happen before the next tv deal. 

Unfortunately you have been one of the worst offenders over the years, any decision that differed from the FFA's stated policy was challenged with something like "so you think you know better than the FFA?" which is hardly conducive to a good debate. It is abundantly clear that the FFA have lost touch with many in the football community, HAL, NPL, fans, grassroots football, and that they dont have all the answers. The challenge is will they listen now or will they carry on regardless? On the three most important issues of the day to the football community - Expansion, a second division, and promotion & relegation, can you honestly say what the FFA's position on any of them is? I can't, which means teh debate is taking place without the FFA's participation which only further isolates them from the football community

yes and no; "at the expense of the A League" doesn't sit well with me, the FFA generates $140m in revenues a year, the A League is responsible for $80m of that, the FFA needs to take the hit not the A League and any investment needs to go in to a second division AND the A League, not one or the other.

I completely agree, except for doing it at the expense of the A-League.  It can be done without taking anything from our top level.

Any delay in adding a second and third division will only cause the gap to grow, making it more difficult to implement in the future, and the same goes for promotion and relegation.

Expansion of the A-League in isolation will also cause the gap to widen and make it more difficult to fix in the future. 

Right now is the best time for change, because it's the easiest it'll ever be.

No I understand what you are saying. I think the TV deal is total unbalanced right now. The FFA should get 30% at most, while the A-league clubs get 70%. Subsequent TV deals after this more money should be poured into a 2nd tier with that sort of split in mind. Except it might look like:

FFA - 20%, A-league 57% 2nd tier 23%

The FFA costs are mostly fixed so as we get more money their cut of the TV deal should decrease as a percentage. 

Edit - The TV deal should be viewed as the A-league and 2nd tier combined when we negotiate with Fox. 

yes. If the FFA maintain their costs flat with the new TV deal, increase the clubs allocation, then there is still money left over to fund Division 2

57% of $50 mill isn't really a lot of money.

For 10 clubs, that covers a salary cap of $2.9 mill.

Do you know what the next TV deal is?

A combine A-league, 2nd tier to Fox

OK peace pipe time mate ... whats annoyed me has been posters who IMO posted crazy ideas... yes maybe I went over the top as did both sides...

The truth as I see it we are both right ... 

The trick in moving forward is as I said look at what well meaning as Waz said people say and analysis what they are saying... this applies equally to me as well ... 

My reasoning and logic is for growth you need a certain size market... IMO until we can crack the issue of player / watcher issue and I would also add and the massive influence other codes especially AFL have we risk a lot and if we go a little slower and build the market it is a safer option that takes longer ..

I also need to consider more what posters like Waz & RBB say in that they believe the Australian Football market is ready ... 

An internal war between like minded folk on the best way forward is foolish ... 

Let me finish with some lines from the Moody Blues written by Justin Haywood in the song "Question" ... 

In the grey of the morning
My mind becomes confused
Between the dead and the sleeping
And the Road That I must choose.

The issue of player/watcher conversion lies partly in connecting the tiers. We have the largest player base in the country of any sport, we should be a powerhouse. We have a disconnect between the A-league or top tier with the traditional model of football ie a tiered pyramid. The connection and buy in you get from Joe public is "that my team can make it to the top tier". That is a powerful connection and one that truly resonates with football fans around the world. We are not unique. This is football.

Yet you support the Cartel

By slower you mean in 12 years we are at a size where we need an $80m TV deal to sustain 10 teams from a central pool of funds?

That's not slow growth. That is foolish growth

If the FFA simply paid minimal and let clubs cover the rest, there wouldn't be a problem. The issue is the cost of balance. Helping CCM and NCJ compete upwards while turning away owner investment and expenditure from the bigger clubs

The FFA chose to mimic a model that is run from leagues that have billion dollar TV deals. That's the "certain size" we need to be unless we change to a cheaper, unbalanced league (which a low cost 2nd tier will support)

How anyone can argue that is beyond me

Thats not what I said, and putting figures on it at this point in time does not help.

What I said was we all want P & R supported by a number of divisions.

My logic and experience says we have a lot of work to do to get to this position.

Others want change yesterday.

In some ways as a community we have become the moaning capital of the world … the expectations of what FFA can achieve in the short term, the quality of the league, the refs ... Have we lost perspective of where we are on the evolutionary journey … seems to me many what the end of the journey next week rather than work on it.. this was never going to be easy 

There is no doubt we need some new leadership and many current issues FFA have on their plate are their own making... 

Right now they have FIFA requirements centring around governance, expansion, P & R.

The errors of judgement are easy to find and easier to be critical of ...

However that does not mean that ideas and options put by others do not need  analysis  carried out on what people say... nor that they are right.... nor that others are right... Fozzie and Les Murray are currently be criticised by many on their Southern Bid by many ... so the answer is not as easy as many seem to think

I fully agree with RBB that the lower division need to be funded ... I am also of the opinion that the State Associations should run the lower divisions to get them off the ground.

My issue that no one has to date convinced me they have the solution to is the creation of a far bigger market for Football and to convert the player numbers. ... Johnny Warren on a gala day at Newcastle in 1965 said look at all the these players we will soon be number one.

Creating that market size and funding to the lower divisions has been the problem for well over 50 years... create a plan that CAN solve this and I am won... but I am yet to see anything that comes close under close analysis... 

Its greater than that imo. 

I live across the road from a div 3 club. However unlikely it is at least it is possible for them to make it to div 1. This means they could actually win div 1 and qualify for the Uefa Champions League, or finish 2nd or 3rd and qualify for Europa League or win the cup and qualify for Europa cup. 

Australia has none of this. FFA Cup isnt recognized. Clubs cant come into A-League. 

WSW showed it is possible to win ACL and were what 1 match away from Real Madrid?

At least in the US the U.S: Open Cup winner qualifies for CONCACAF CL and all the clubs are linked internationally. 

I wish deep down in my heart nay I would give almost anything for this to be right in the Australia sporting context today.

Prior to FFA, the NSL had a far smaller fraction than .

However and very very importantly it is what will happen and be the final driver ... how about that RBB when we talk we agree totally on the solution..

Our difference is the Football market in Australia today is not strong enough for this.... we have to work very hard nay fucking hard to get the Football market to the point when what you said can work.

I think we are a few years away from it... does not mean we should not plan, lay down markers, develop it etc... 

But IMO we are nowhere ready for this to work in the Australian sporting environment today.

There is already a plan/model in place. It's from FIFA, but I keep forgetting, we are unique.

Although many variations of these core principles are to be found right around the world.