4 days from now

First 11 guesses? What changes would you make? How has this pitch historically played?

I find it ludicrous that there are not 6 home tests. Then each state is guaranteed one match. Bellerive, which I happen to think is the best cricket wicket in the country.. always seems to miss out. It is a big poke in the eye for the Tassie cricket purist.

As for changes. Try a new opener. We also need someone at #6 that shows some subtance to provide support to the middle order and the tail.. Probably more chance of finding an igloo in hell.

The rumoured changes ranked by likeliness:

Harris/Khawaja/Wade for Smith
Wade for M.Marsh
Pattinson for Starc

Apparently concerned by the English lengths to lefties so want more right handers in the side. Marsh coming in would provide a bit more bowling cover if Starc loses his lengths. 

hmmm some big scores at this ground

Also Englands recent record looks formidable!

hmmm really hope we don't have mitch marsh play

I'd go 

Khawaja
Warner
Labu
Smith
Head
Wade
Paine
Starc
Cummins/pattinson
Hazelwood
Lyon

wondering if cummins needs a match off he's played every game in like forever

That was two tours back..2013. Check out the batting lineup compared to their present one. Full of quality specialists.. not a bunch of white ballers.

Hearing Cummins and Hazlewood will play out the series. Reluctant to change the attack as it was they that had us in a winning position in the last game. If anyone goes for Starc it has to be Patto who has been a touch down on his best for mine.

The big money too is on Marsh coming in for Wade to negate that abundance of lefties problem.

Here is my 11:

1. Warner
2. Khawaja
3. Labuschagne 
4. Smith
5. Head (c)
6. Wade (wk)
7. Marsh
8. Cummins
9. Starc 
10. Hazlewood
11. Lyon (vc)

I know we won’t drop Paine but I think his captaincy has been suspect, as has his batting. Letting Wade keep would mean we could have more batting or bowling depth.

Please not Wade with the gloves. Paine may be 35 but his keeping is still among the best in the country. You have to play your best keeper in Tests. I believe Paine will chuck in the captaincy after this series. He has done a great job bringing a new culture to this team. It will also prolong his career thru to this summer when he will likely hang up the boots.

The top wicket taker in 2013 was offie Graeme Swann. Lyon had a poor tour by comparison. A seamer our own Ryan Harris the next best.

I am seeing that it has been a good cricket wicket.. at least in 2013. Something in it for the batsmen and both forms of bowler.

Welcome to the forum.

We need our best keeper keeping.

Paine is the best keeper.

Paine has to captain - if he quits being captain, Carey comes into the team. And everyone then wonders who captain will be. Cos it won't be Smith or Warner. That leaves Labu, Head or Wade...

You had 6 home tests last year, and they still skipped Bellerive. They gave it to Canberra instead.

Australia has been getting itself into a bit of debt with the fellow members for calling in favours. You owed SA a pyjama tour. And you're giving NZ 3 2020's in March in exchange for us giving up Xmas to play tests at McG and ScG. SA refuse to play these games, and I firmly believe NZ should do the same and not play them. It does nothing for NZC revenue at all. CA are also hosting all the ODI games. NZ gave CA the t20 tri series the summer before, and let CA host half if it, with England, that was never scheduled earlier. That was meant to be an England series here sole. It cost NZ a test match v England. CA also cancelled on Bangladesh last year, so owed them a series. CA will go back there in a split tour between October, pyjamas, and June, tests, to keep them happy.

CA have some juggling to do to repay the favours it has recevied - even if just more than lip service.

For me its

Khawaja
Warner
Labuschagne
Smith
Head
Wade
Paine
Cummins
Pattinson/Siddle
Lyon
Hazlewood

Harsh on Harris but Khawaja gets unfairly scapegoated whenever we need to drop someone. Hes a class player and we need experience in this situation. Of course it still leads to 4 out of the top 6 being lefties.Wades spot would be under a bit of pressure and if selectors want to keep Harris Id rather drop Wade and slot Labuschagne in at 5. 

Bowling wise Im still doubtful of Starcs inclusion and if he can have the type of control and bowl consistent lines that weve bowled this ashes. Take out Stokes/Leach last knock and we've bowled excellently for large parts of 3 tests. To include Starc would be a risk and youd probably need that extra bowling option and Marsh doesnt add enough batting to justify his inclusion. 

Reports are Khawaja and Pattinson out. Smith and Starc in. 
https://www.news.com.au/sport/cricket/the-ashes/smith-starc-named-in-reshaped-australian-squad-for-fourth-ashes-test/news-story/34fb3d0bce149b3eca8520f756c27d27

that means wade is 12th man since harris will open

seems harsh since we have only had 3 players score a foreign 100 in the last 4 years (maxwell, smith and wade)

actually they have to drop a bowler 

so probably either siddle or hazelwood

my guess is siddle to be 12th man

Pattinson out Starc in. But is not guaranteed a spot as Siddle is also in the squad. Will depend on the deck I expect. If is  a hard dry surface like others then Siddle for certain. Marsh misses out. Big pressure on Wade now.

I just heard on the radio that Usman has been dropped as well as Patto. 

I am not sure what Usman has averaged in the last two years of Test cricket? 

Obviously the media have poor intelligence gathering as they had been suggesting Wade was going to be dropped. 

I am not sure about whether Cummins and Hazlewood are fatigued either, hence needing an enforced rest. 

Only three batters scoring tons on foreign soil over four years is atrocious! 

I am amazed! 

Hazlewood said the other day he was fit and ready to play the last two tests. CA has said it wants Cummins to play the entire series. 

Khawaja is not done completely. He still performs on home tracks.. @53. So expect him back for the home summer.

Wade is under pressure now with Marsh waiting in the wings for the final match. (pm DC)

..and two of those were in this series.  Why will Wade be carrying the drinks? Not sure why Harris remains as opener when CA has made it clear they were worried about too many lefties in the top six as England has been targeting them around the wicket and with great success..

LOL!

 This series alone has seen Smith and Wade score tons. Khawaja UAE...

That's so awful...

But wrong, cos Voges tonned up in NZ in 2016, so did Burns, Warner twice in Bangladesh.

The stat must mean out of the playing XI. But Labu, Harris, Paine and Head are noobs.

It must be playing XI. Meaning Warner, Smith and Wade...

Nah - Smith, the same batter tonned up in India. And maybe elsewhere too.

But if its three, its wade, khawaja and smith... But I dont think its accurate cos I am sure Warner tonned up in Bangaldesh... Positive in fact! And Voges tonned up in NZ in 2016... So did Burns... This stats seems wrong...

Smith's a freak. Without him, CA would be a joke right now. No offence. He is that good.

I know how gifted Smith is, but he makes me mad that bowlers make themselves look so dumb playing to his strengths. Someone has to leg theory him, just like they did Bradman to show he is not perfect. But until they do, Smith will remain a colossus. 

The stat must be playing XI, so Warner Smith and Wade, as Head, Labu, Harris are noobs and Paine just sucks too much to ever make a ton anywhere in his test career. Carey must be ****ing bricks he has no captaincy tools. 

Paine is a problem for Australia, but I hope you keep him all home summer when NZ tour :) Carey has already f'd us enough in  odi. We dont need him to replicate this in tests...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zja-mLs0Fas

sorry misquoted the stat

here is the real stat i mean

I recall the Smith Maxwell partnership well :)

No way Maxy does it without Smith batting with him...

And it was a draw  :P (i was counting Aussie away wins since there has been so few in the past 4 years :P)

Maxwell is enough to do your head in if you support his teams. Everyone can see his talent. But he is all too often brainless...