Clearly the A-league in its current state is not sustainable. With the news over the last 24 hours that the biggest club in the league, MVFC owes the APLS in excess of $2 million, the main question is what do the balance sheets of the other clubs look like. Off field is an absolute mess.
Crowds are dead set laughable. Of the 17 completed games since the post world cup restart, only 6 have attracted a crowd of over 5000. 
The league just hasn't been able to sustain its market. It has been comfortably overtaken by the NBL in the summer timeslot, and the Big bash has also attracted bigger crowds this season. 

My suggestion is to take stock of the league at seasons end. What does this mean? It means the following:
- Fast track the second division
- Fast track promotion/relegation to begin in season 2024/2025
- Assess all options to get out of the Paramount Plus deal - It is comfortably the worst in Australia Sport. Go back to Foxtel hat in hand if need be.
- Fast track suitable stadiums for all teams. Melbourne City, Brisbane Roar, Wellington Phoenix, Newcastle Jets and clearly Western United (about to be rectified) all need new stadiums. One of the greatest attractions to the MLS at the moment is that each new franchise must have a brand new stadium. People wan to go to those stadiums. Playing in old dilapidated stadiums is not attractive. 
- All teams must have a viable ownership structure heading into 2023/2024 - If not, they drop out of the competition
- Remove salary cap. This is imperative to attract talent to the league. No marquees will be looking at the league as a potential destination at the moment. $ talks
- Only play at night in December/January. This assists with the quality of the games throughout the hotter months, as well as assisting with crowds

If some or all of these items are not implemented throughout 2023 then the next season will be the last of the A-league as we know it. I cant see how it can possibly survive. 

Good luck finding $200-$300 million per boutique stadium for every team. Would be ideal but will never happen.

Should be small, less than 10k seat stadiums. Costs should be no higher than $125 Million.

This is one of the main issues with football in this country. Its trying to be something that its not. It needs to stay in its lane. Small, boutique stadiums, for all clubs, is the way to go. 

Good luck finding $125 million for boutique stadiums.

And places to put them that are convenient.

lol stadiums less than 10k? That is so fucking stupid.

There was a time not long ago that just about EVERY club in the A league was averaging MORE than 10k. Victory were averaging about 30k playing out of Docklands, fark even WSW with their 20k stadium at Parra wasn't big enough, hence the upgrade.

Football may be small fish compared to AFL, but it's not that small.  Football run well with the right structure and marketing should be aiming for 10-15k for the bottom rung clubs, like Wellington, Central Coast ect. That means stadiums with capacities of at least 15K ideally around 20k. 

We are a minimum of 10 years away from all clubs averaging 10k. 

Victory are a different breed, Commbank stadium was rushed because of the early success of WSW, which has been proven to be not sustainable. 

City are getting crowds of 3k (forget the reported figures, there is mayo on all of them), Newcastle small crowds for their stadium and Wellington needs to be rectangular. 

So fucking stupid

Imagine pissing away $125 million on fancy boutique stadiums that will be, according to you, obsolete within 10 years. Even the old Parra stadium that WSW used to fill was 24k.

Implicit in the way the ALM have managed the current circumstances around no fees payable is that they are reliant on development pathways from the "Old Soccer" network. When the NSD is up and running the "Old Soccer" will have no need for them as they will have their own pathways for making money out of transfers. This is the death of the ALM, so why would the "investors" of the ALM put any money into a failing product?

its a good point, which is why a full reset needs to be undertaken. 

The second division is so important. As is Pro/Rel. It will at least attempt to bridge the gap between "old soccer" and the ALM which you have referenced here. 

The league is absolutely broke, and a lot of those suggestions are going to cost millions of dollars that no body has.
P&R by 24-25?  There is absolutely zero chance of that happening.
It's not just the biggest club experiencing a financial crisis, the APL has also made loans to 4 or 5 other clubs.

So tell it to me straight will there be an a league in five years or not?

There wont be unless some of the aforementioned changes are implemented.

I give it 24 months max unless bulk changes are made.

It's an interesting and probably complex question. We've heard it online for over a decade now "the A-League will be gone in 5 years", however it's still here. Big difference now is that it is a for profit private entity, compared to previously being a not-for-profit entity under the FFA. As a private entity, the entire thing would be sold (or controlling share) off to anyone who's willing to buy it, before it's shut down for good. If it's run deep into the ground it could probably be had for a relatively small figure.

Great so the afl will can buy it for aflx 

The league doesn't own any stadiums or clubs so it would be of little value to the AFL. 

Yes, there will be, because the owners have some motivation to keep it going (the value of their licenses).
They only retain value in a functioning league, so they will keep it going - but it's possible they might be forced to strip it all back to bare bones to reduce costs.

Well I'm playing my part. I got a guy at work interested so will be two new fans at wanderers vs bulls on Sunday 

There's a point of time in the Death Spiral where Lederer/Townsend decide to invent P/R for the good of the game they own

Then you have a free supply of already owned clubs.

I think there is an argument to be made whereby things become so commercially unviable, the licenses become worthless, and then there is nothing to lose except opening it up and running the whole thing almost semi-professionally.
But until that point is reached, I just can't see the present owners opening it all up.

It should not take $25m to run an A-League club like Victory do. TBH - I suspect that we will continue to have a professional league - but clubs that aren't funded by billionaires need to make appropriate adjustments. The NSD then should have some professionals clubs that will operate at $5m-$10m a year. Others will operate as semi-pro at a slightly higher spend that they currently do. 

If eventually there is to be P&R then the clubs in the second division must be fully professional at the beginning and throughout the season that they qualify. I remember Manly United  at one stage were very keen to part of the NSD but had no interest in becoming fully professional.   

The best teams win the division and earn promotion

THAT IS FOOTBALL

If a semi-pro team is the best then they get to have a crack at the division above.

Fuck all those who think there must be criteria like "fully pro" there is no.justification for that

The only criteria should be a safe stadium, (and maybe minimum seats but I emphasis minimum)

Reality will most likely favour those who pay the most.

FIFA football allows things other than "football" to be taken into account in the issuing of a licence to play in the higher league. That will be what happens here because it is plainly commonsense.

The owners of PSG are looking for investment opportunities  around the world, according to this:

PSG's Qatari owners keen to invest in PL club

The Qatari owners of Paris Saint-Germain are looking at investing in a Premier League club. Nasser Al-Khelaifi, who is the president of PSG and chairman of Qatar Sports Investments, met Daniel Levy, the executive chairman of Tottenham Hotspur, last week in a London hotel. Al-Khelaifi is also the president of the European Club Association and Levy is a member of its executive board. QSI own PSG and a minority stake in Portuguese club Braga and they are determined to buy or invest in more clubs this year. More than 300 clubs around the world are part of multi club ownership groups but QSI's only interests are in PSG and Braga. That will change in 2023 which is set to be a year of ambitious strategic acquisitions for QSI.Many observers assumed QSI would take less of an interest in football investments after the World Cup in Qatar, but exactly the opposite is likely to be the case. The owners of Manchester United and Liveroool are known to be seeking investors or buyers for their clubs.QSI are looking at football investment opportunities around the world. 

https://www.skysports.com/transfer-centre

PSG's Qatari owners keen to invest in PL c. The 

Personally, unless the APL find a circuit breaker,
 - and I really can't see what that would be- I believe that this tv deal will be the last. Whether Paramount allows it to run full term or does a Foxtell is another question.

Fucking LOL. If they ever return to Foxtel, I am done.

If the APL ever agrees to part ways with Paramount, then the ONLY option is to go to alone. Stream all games via KeepUp.

Generally speaking all you’re stating here is that Australian Football should start accepting that we move to the accepted Global Football Standards.
On that I agree, if done all the peripheral pieces you put in there will work itself out.

The State Leagues before the NSL had all the "Global Football Standards" and it didn't work.

Apart from the finals set up (although it did try P&R), the NSL had all the "Global Football Standards" and it didn't work.

What evidence do you have that it's going to work now?

The rest of the world. :D

I haven't been on here for awhile but I'll do a bit something different.

I was thinking about this recently, if the a-league was to expand would it beneficial to have a closed 16 league and have a longer season OR have the 16 team league split up into two divisions of 8 teams? And have a 2 tier league which has promotion and relegation between the bottom 2 teams in division 1 and the top 2 teams in division 2?

For me alot more beneficial in a sporting sense to have promotion and relegation which this league desperately needs than a closed 16 team league which doesn't encourage enough sporting merit unless if you are going reward 50% of teams in a finals series to take part in a glorified grand final which has recently shown you have adventage unless your in Sydney (thanks APL).
We see closed leagues in the AFL and NRL but time after time it just makes the standard of play not rise when there is so little to play for towards the bottom of the table.

The only downside is less games but you have easily add a third fixture until you can fill up the first division with more teams from the 2nd division, this will also encourage the NSD to be well prepared more teams for professional football when they enter the a-league division system and therefore expand the access to top flght football. 

So overall you have 3 tiers of top flight football:
A-League 1
A-League 2 
And the NSD with which will become the National 3rd Division consisting of the best in the NPL system 

Of course you will only have pro-rel between a-league clubs until the actual NSD gets up and running then pro-rel could maybe be brought in sooner so knows on that front and how it will work with a-league licences and all that.

But it's about damn time this league focuses on healthy footballing outcomes which mean better teams, better coaches and better players get rewarded for their good performances rather than encouraging mediocrity that enables teams to be not at their best and still make as a mentioned a glorified final series which only reward under performances and mediocrity.
And overall it doesn't help them prepare for what they have to account for when they enter the cut throat nature thats European football where every decision is crucial and your held accountable for your on and off field performances.

Just my take on it, but we need to find a way to get into the level.
I feel a certain amount of mediocrity has crept into our game for far too long meanwhile the investment overseas continues to rise and we are kind of standing still and expecting the same outcomes.

P.S good to see this forum is still alive and kicking! :)

I definitely think we need a large buffer between the national leagues and the state leagues.

If melbourne victory go down to the nsd it could be good in the long term, if they get relegated down to the state league then it could be years before they get back up and it could make things unviable at the top. Back to back relegations do happen.

One option is to make the a league licences shield you from going lower than the 2nd league - purists will hate it but it would be a simple fix which also allows the league to make money off liscences.

Another option is indeed to have a third league (which we probably need. We want clubs down the bottom to invest big and the prospect of staying in a national comp for longer could help a lot)

at some stage I wonder if we need to address the inevitable bottle neck between the npl with 70 odd clubs in the first division. Having 70 clubs in the 3rd division and 12-16 with only 2 p and r spots in the 2nd is always going to be a bit of a problem in my opinion

One option could be to have the third division be 2 conferences to smooth the transition. Another option would be to have a 3rd division with a huge number of p and r places

Speaking of investment, we've now had cumulative losses of around $400 million across 18 years of the A-League's existence.
That's some serious investment, and completely unsustainable.
The one thing we've learned across those 18 years?
Any time the league expands beyond 10 teams (which has occurred twice in its history), it runs into huge financial difficulties.
We're at a point where the A-League's largest club has suffered enormous losses in the last few seasons, to such an extent it has sold its soul to a foreign investment firm.
The conditions of the loan are so onerous, so weighted in favour of the loaner, that the Sicilian mafia would be proud of it.  The loaner has successfully managed to have its cake and eat it too, I've never, ever seen the likes of such an agreement (except in movies featuring loan sharks).
Speculate about a future with 16 clubs in the league by all means, but we appear to be as far away from that as we were  way back when Fury and GCU dropped out of the league in consecutive seasons.

Could not agree more.

Fanciful stuff to think that 16 teams is viable. Stick with what we have for at least another 5 years and allow the clubs a chance to grow and prosper. 16 is way too many anyway. 14 should be the absolute most. 

Which is why I mentioned that maybe two divisions of 8 teams is the way to go, I agree a 16 team closed league is too much but also the sporting merit will lose all purpose when it’s get towards the back end of the season with little to play for.
The term ‘tanking’ comes to my mind.

Use expansion to bring in 4 extra teams either through market based entry teams or via the NSD and split the down to 2 divisions instead, not only it will be more exciting you will create more competitive tension with less teams who have something to play with pro-rel but also finals series if they are needed going forward.

Anything to create better sporting outcomes should be encouraged. 

Yet investors are still there. Some leave, some come in but the league and teams are still there.
Any time a new license is for sale it gets sold (to unworthy entities, sure)
You say it's unsustainable while saying it's been going 18 years.
3 years tops.
3 years tops
3 years tops

Anyway I'm no APL apologist that's for sure. Just pointing it out

Newcastle Jets say hello. 

There are buyers in the wings - that is why Papas is blaming the ground, the players, the refs and anything he can think of for their plight. He will probably be out before Corica. 

There seems to always be "buyers in the wings". 
Been about 2 years sitting in the wings for Newcastle. 

Adelaide United has had a buyer in the wings for 18 months as well. 

Perth Glory have always had mentions of a potential sale and interest. 

Even our league tv deal when out to the market had 9 "interested parties"

I meant for a new team ie. a new license

The clubs are probably doing much better now that they have a larger share of the income. It's the FA that has been missing out.
The more clubs the merrier even if it means each club gets less. OK player payments may be compromised, but that's an acceptable trade-off.
I would love to see all clubs in the hands of Australian owners but that may not be possible for a while. It is my wish however.

The distribution to  the clubs went down when the broadcast rights went down because of covid and then it went down again because of the penalties in the agreement with paramount.  The clubs' income through the gate is way down and sponsorships are hard to get.

As against that the FA income has gone up because it has its own broadcast rights deal and it has more good sponsorship deals.  James said that FA has never been better off financially.

The distribution to the clubs from TV rights grew to 80% I think. Isn't this an increase in $ compared to what they were getting even based on the reduced TV rights? Covid issues is another matter. FA's revenue has been going down since the split however as they don't have to pay the wages for the clubs etc or bail them out any more their net position may well be more comfortable with less risk.

True but read this and be amazed. 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-13/crown-casino-compensation-taxpayers/100371810

 Imagine the lawyers that drafted this for Crown and then got it signed off by the government. I bet you champagne corks were popping that night.