your comprehensive olyroos preview


your comprehensive olyroos preview

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grazorblade - 1 May 2024 7:52 PM
Barca4Life - 1 May 2024 5:06 PM

60 shots to 20 usually means 3-5 goals for and 1-2 goals against. Given we had some big chances and a penalty it is fair to say the finishing was poor. They weren't poor finishers at club or in pretournament games. So either it is poor mental prep or a poor luck. Given the inexperience of the coach my money is on poor mental prep

i think we have the opposite issue of the senior roos who manage very few shots and chances but do manage to finish consistently well. Arnie's man management and mental prep is first class. If our socceroos ever had their finishing decline they would get ordinary results quite quickly

Either way this needs to be addressed for future tournaments, missed opportunity given the talent that was available.
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Barca4Life - 1 May 2024 5:06 PM
Decentric 2 - 1 May 2024 4:58 PM

What was the reason why they couldn't score a goal in any of the games, was it down to the quality of the chance creation or shot creation?

Once again an Australian team struggling to score and break down a low block defence, something for Ernie Merrick to fix as the disruptor going forward.

I'm quite concerned about Ernie Merrick being an analyst. He was  already  a pro accredited coach in the old system, and to the best of my knowledge has not retrained in the new revamped coaching methodology since 2008. I know coaches who have had old Soccer Aus licences. They have just had to attend national conferences as a participants, and their old badges  are reinstated. One of the assessors told me a C Licence in 2012 was a more highly credentialled accreditation than an A Licence prior to 2005.

Merrick has not been forced to adopt the newer methods, and be assessed, like all the A L coaches who've trained since 2008 onwards have learned.

The  irony is in response to  your first point I don't think any team had  the deep defensive block/Partial Press against the Olyroos that the senior Socceroos have encountered, but more of a Half Press, which is still a conservative  measure in BPO.

What is pleasing is that the Olyroos played so many balls into the pen box with players in support, whilst the senior Socceroos can't do it against arguably inferior opposition to what the senior Socceroos have been playing. 

Toure is an interesting case in point. He had 2-3 shots against Jordan from his 30 odd mins, 7 shots ( including a pen) as a starter against Indonesia and 0 shots as a starter  against Qatar. In the era when I used to record stats for comparative criterion, Cahill playing as central striker averaged 4-5, or 5-6 shots per game.

 Toure got some good shots in. He hit the post at least once, and  went close on a number of occasions with shots just wide or executing difficult shots  for the keeper to save, from  well struck balls with good body position.  But he didn't score, which is of paramount importance.

A Kuol got at least 2 shots against Jordan ( couldn't identify a few of the perpetrators of the 15 shots), possibly had 0 against Indonesia and 1 against Qatar.

Milanovic as a winger had at least 1 shot against Jordan, 0 against Indonesia off the bench and 5 against Qatar. He missed an open goal when he headed it wide with 1 shot!

Brook  as a winger had at least 1 shot against Jordan, which nearly scored as the keeper just deflected it from going into the corner; at least  3 shots off the bench against Indonesia; and at least 7 shots as a starter against Qatar. Again in one of the latter two games it involved another fingertip save from the opposition keeper to one of Brook's shots and a number of very close Brook  misses. 

There were easily enough good shots created by Aus to score many more goals than the 3 opponents. They scored 1 goal from 18 shots at our goal, whilst we scored 0 from 60 shots at their goals.  I recorded we hit the woodwork 3-4 times too.



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grazorblade - 1 May 2024 7:52 PM
Barca4Life - 1 May 2024 5:06 PM

60 shots to 20 usually means 3-5 goals for and 1-2 goals against. Given we had some big chances and a penalty it is fair to say the finishing was poor. They weren't poor finishers at club or in pretournament games. So either it is poor mental prep or a poor luck. Given the inexperience of the coach my money is on poor mental prep

i think we have the opposite issue of the senior roos who manage very few shots and chances but do manage to finish consistently well. Arnie's man management and mental prep is first class. If our socceroos ever had their finishing decline they would get ordinary results quite quickly

All very good points made in this post.

It is  interesting to read the correlation of 3-5 goals  converted from 60 shots, to 1-2 goals  converted  for 18 shots.
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LFC. - 22 Apr 2024 9:29 AM
Bunch of Hacks - 22 Apr 2024 3:53 AM


There is too much arrogance typically from us towards supposedly poorer fellow Asean nations that I think its high time people accept we are struggling against any NT by the look of it.



Once the  three  game shave been deconstructed, using  game based football performance criteria, I've never  encountered such dominance by the senior Socceroos against any opponent all over the pitch in every facet of play - apart from scoring goals.

The goal conversion rate was appalling, but some of the Olyroos have skill sets few of the seniors do, in any previous era. And they will replace most of the current senior Socceroos sooner than later.

Brook and Jake Hollman - when both these players ball carry or dribble they are the first  Aussie players I've seen to have  their heads up and scan the field of play simultaneously whilst  the ball is at their feet and moving at a fair clip. It is very, very difficult to do. It enables players like this to have better vision.  Okon and Zelic  were quite good at his, but I've seen Brook and Jake Hollman have their heads up whilst going flat out ball carrying.

So many of these Olyroo payers move so quickly into position to support the ball carrier by opening  optimum passing lanes, quickly, before their teammate receives the ball.


So many of these players have such quick handling speed, the ball movement, or ball circulation, was too quick  from the Olyroos for the three opponents to disturb build ups easily. That the stats showed the Olyroos had far more possession in their attacking half, than the opponents did in their  own defensive half, is evidence that it was really tough for them when we had the ball. I can't remember 5-10 pass sequences occurring in the  opposition half, whilst still gaining  territory closer to the opposition pen box.

What the opposition did very effectively, with the refs unwitting accomplices, was slow down and stop play with time wasting tactics - slow to take throw ins, free kicks and goal kicks; plus fake injury to stop play. It gave them a breather and a much needed rest from chasing a lot of ball. 
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Decentric 2 - 1 May 2024 10:39 PM
Barca4Life - 1 May 2024 5:06 PM

I'm quite concerned about Ernie Merrick being an analyst. He was  already  a pro accredited coach in the old system, and to the best of my knowledge has not retrained in the new revamped coaching methodology since 2008. I know coaches who have had old Soccer Aus licences. They have just had to attend national conferences as a participants, and their old badges  are reinstated. One of the assessors told me a C Licence in 2012 was a more highly credentialled accreditation than an A Licence prior to 2005.

Merrick has not been forced to adopt the newer methods, and be assessed, like all the A L coaches who've trained since 2008 onwards have learned.

The  irony is in response to  your first point I don't think any team had  the deep defensive block/Partial Press against the Olyroos that the senior Socceroos have encountered, but more of a Half Press, which is still a conservative  measure in BPO.

What is pleasing is that the Olyroos played so many balls into the pen box with players in support, whilst the senior Socceroos can't do it against arguably inferior opposition to what the senior Socceroos have been playing. 

Toure is an interesting case in point. He had 2-3 shots against Jordan from his 30 odd mins, 7 shots ( including a pen) as a starter against Indonesia and 0 shots as a starter  against Qatar. In the era when I used to record stats for comparative criterion, Cahill playing as central striker averaged 4-5, or 5-6 shots per game.

 Toure got some good shots in. He hit the post at least once, and  went close on a number of occasions with shots just wide or executing difficult shots  for the keeper to save, from  well struck balls with good body position.  But he didn't score, which is of paramount importance.

A Kuol got at least 2 shots against Jordan ( couldn't identify a few of the perpetrators of the 15 shots), possibly had 0 against Indonesia and 1 against Qatar.

Milanovic as a winger had at least 1 shot against Jordan, 0 against Indonesia off the bench and 5 against Qatar. He missed an open goal when he headed it wide with 1 shot!

Brook  as a winger had at least 1 shot against Jordan, which nearly scored as the keeper just deflected it from going into the corner; at least  3 shots off the bench against Indonesia; and at least 7 shots as a starter against Qatar. Again in one of the latter two games it involved another fingertip save from the opposition keeper to one of Brook's shots and a number of very close Brook  misses. 

There were easily enough good shots created by Aus to score many more goals than the 3 opponents. They scored 1 goal from 18 shots at our goal, whilst we scored 0 from 60 shots at their goals.  I recorded we hit the woodwork 3-4 times too.



Yep given we had an experienced dutch TD overhaul our coach and player development this feels like a weird move for FA and board to appoint Merrick in this important role.

Anyway, the final third play is something to work on, clearly we struggled in the final third however I dont think it reflects on the players ability and more through the coaching and preparation they had.
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In conclusion,  where 0 goals scored in more than 270 mins of football.  How much longer do we need to persist with this farce?
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Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 1:37 PM
In conclusion, and using ONLY "game based football performance criteria" there where 0 goals scored in more than 270 mins of football.  How much longer do we need to persist with this farce?

I almost commented last night but bit my tongue.

Apparently we outplayed everyone which is clearly obvious to those with a KNVB background.

If only wins were counted by dominance across matches then we'd have crushed it.

In ratio of shots Aus had a ratio of 10:3 in in its favour. This is very  dominant.

The percentage of shots taken by Aus compared to opponents was circa 77% compared to 23% of all shots taken in the three games. 






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Barca4Life - 2 May 2024 10:53 AM
Decentric 2 - 1 May 2024 10:39 PM

Yep given we had an experienced dutch TD overhaul our coach and player development this feels like a weird move for FA and board to appoint Merrick in this important role.

Anyway, the final third play is something to work on, clearly we struggled in the final third however I dont think it reflects on the players ability and more through the coaching and preparation they had.

This is the hardest bit to produce players with the ability to pierce the defence, a rare commodity in football in this country.
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robbos - 2 May 2024 1:50 PM
Barca4Life - 2 May 2024 10:53 AM

This is the hardest bit to produce players with the ability to pierce the defence, a rare commodity in football in this country.

And yet the Aleague produces a higher goals per game ratio than most other leagues? I dont watch any of it but how is this possible these technical gifted, NC produced, new platinum generation players can pierce Aleague defences but not those of Indonesia or Jordan?

C'mon man there is a problem, we all have to agree on how to fix it.
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Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 2:05 PM
robbos - 2 May 2024 1:50 PM

And yet the Aleague produces a higher goals per game ratio than most other leagues? I dont watch any of it but how is this possible these technical gifted, NC produced, new platinum generation players can pierce Aleague defences but not those of Indonesia or Jordan?

C'mon man there is a problem, we all have to agree on how to fix it.

2 different issues here, producing players with the ability to pierce defences & scoring against Indonesia & Jordan.
We don't produce enough world class playmakers or wingers with the ability to break down defences, something we are working on.

As for not scoring against Indonesia or Jordan, maybe this is because the players are Liverpool fans & watching re-runs of Nunez & Salah.
I think the Olyroos, like Liverpool has been creating chances & not scoring.
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Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 2:01 PM
Munrubenmuz - 2 May 2024 1:48 PM

Im all for positivity but sheesh. 

Stats are important for diagnosing a problem

If we have 60 shots including a penalty and dont score with some really good chances in those 60 shots it shows the problem is with finishing not chance creation (the socceroos against indonesia had about the same number of shots as goals by contrast)

So why is the finishing poor? Either
1) they are poor finishers
2) they were poor finishers during the tournament
3) bad luck

3 is hard to rule out, bad luck across a bunch of games can happen and 3 is unfortunately a small sample size. 1 i would rule out on the olyroos finishing in 12 matches before the tournament and at club level. If defense in the a league is bad that means they will get more chances in the first place, but the goals dont magically change size if the defence is bad.

At club level milanovic has 9 goals from 66 shots, brook has 9 from 54, kuol has 5 from 42 etc.  So i would rule out option 1

Option 2 is probably the most likely and this could be caused by poor mental prep
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robbos - 2 May 2024 2:36 PM
Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 2:05 PM

2 different issues here, producing players with the ability to pierce defences & scoring against Indonesia & Jordan.
We don't produce enough world class playmakers or wingers with the ability to break down defences, something we are working on.

As for not scoring against Indonesia or Jordan, maybe this is because the players are Liverpool fans & watching re-runs of Nunez & Salah.
I think the Olyroos, like Liverpool has been creating chances & not scoring.

Hahahha I would be REALLY worried if Nunez or Salah couldn't score against Indoensian defences. HAHAHAHAAHAHAHA
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grazorblade - 2 May 2024 2:44 PM
Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 2:01 PM

Stats are important for diagnosing a problem

If we have 60 shots including a penalty and dont score with some really good chances in those 60 shots it shows the problem is with finishing not chance creation (the socceroos against indonesia had about the same number of shots as goals by contrast)

So why is the finishing poor? Either
1) they are poor finishers
2) they were poor finishers during the tournament
3) bad luck

3 is hard to rule out, bad luck across a bunch of games can happen and 3 is unfortunately a small sample size. 1 i would rule out on the olyroos finishing in 12 matches before the tournament and at club level. If defense in the a league is bad that means they will get more chances in the first place, but the goals dont magically change size if the defence is bad.

At club level milanovic has 9 goals from 66 shots, brook has 9 from 54, kuol has 5 from 42 etc.  So i would rule out option 1

Option 2 is probably the most likely and this could be caused by poor mental prep

Umm 9 x goals from 66 shots is "good" shit that would get most strikers fired around the world mate. thats the point..Some of these so called "statistical shots" were row Z clangers and point to very poor technique ... I would definitely NOT rule out option #1..... 
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Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 4:01 PM
grazorblade - 2 May 2024 2:44 PM

Umm 9 x goals from 66 shots is "good" shit that would get most strikers fired around the world mate. thats the point..Some of these so called "statistical shots" were row Z clangers and point to very poor technique ... I would definitely NOT rule out option #1..... 

Yes a better stat would be 'shots on target' vs 'shots altogether'.

In the matches I watched (only the 2 I admit) 90% of them were into row Z.




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Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 4:01 PM
grazorblade - 2 May 2024 2:44 PM

Umm 9 x goals from 66 shots is "good" shit that would get most strikers fired around the world mate. thats the point..Some of these so called "statistical shots" were row Z clangers and point to very poor technique ... I would definitely NOT rule out option #1..... 

66 shots is only 6 more shots than the olyroos had all tournament. If we score 8 goals we aren't complaining. So option one can't explain the poor finishing just in this tournament since they have finished well in the a league and in previous olyroo games. 

Not sure what you are comparing to to say 9 in 66 matches. Looking at the front four from the recent match between aston villa v chelsea there are collectively 73 shots from 385 matches. That is one goal per 5.3 shots compared to milanovic who is one goal per 7.3 shots. Additionally Milanovic outperforms his xg which is only 4.5. A Kuol underperforms his xg (which is 8 for 3 goals), Brook also overperfoms his xg which is 5.4

So I don't think poor finishing technique can explain zero goals. If they got their normal rate then you are probably getting 5-8 goals. 

Bad finishing technique alone
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robbos - 2 May 2024 2:36 PM
Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 2:05 PM

2 different issues here, producing players with the ability to pierce defences & scoring against Indonesia & Jordan.
We don't produce enough world class playmakers or wingers with the ability to break down defences, something we are working on.

As for not scoring against Indonesia or Jordan, maybe this is because the players are Liverpool fans & watching re-runs of Nunez & Salah.
I think the Olyroos, like Liverpool has been creating chances & not scoring.

I don’t think it’s relevant that you need world class players to break down and finish off a deep block defence it’s more to down to the type of players you have and how to use them.

The problem is Australian coaches in most cases are not good at coaching against deep blocks, it makes us predictable at this level. 
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grazorblade - 2 May 2024 4:43 PM
Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 4:01 PM

66 shots is only 6 more shots than the olyroos had all tournament. If we score 8 goals we aren't complaining. So option one can't explain the poor finishing just in this tournament since they have finished well in the a league and in previous olyroo games. 

Not sure what you are comparing to to say 9 in 66 matches. Looking at the front four from the recent match between aston villa v chelsea there are collectively 73 shots from 385 matches. That is one goal per 5.3 shots compared to milanovic who is one goal per 7.3 shots. Additionally Milanovic outperforms his xg which is only 4.5. A Kuol underperforms his xg (which is 8 for 3 goals), Brook also overperfoms his xg which is 5.4

So I don't think poor finishing technique can explain zero goals. If they got their normal rate then you are probably getting 5-8 goals. 

Bad finishing technique alone

Arrrggghhhh wtf is "normal rate?" how can you measure an expected outcome when the level of defence they are trying to play through is totally different at club level than it is at international level... As Muz mentions 90% of the "shots" where row Z (that was my observation too) lets say we are being overly critical and of the 60 "shots" 20 were on target... thats still 0 goals for 20 x shots..... thats gotta mean poor technique, I dont know how else you can argue it?
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Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 5:06 PM
grazorblade - 2 May 2024 4:43 PM

Arrrggghhhh wtf is "normal rate?" how can you measure an expected outcome when the level of defence they are trying to play through is totally different at club level than it is at international level... As Muz mentions 90% of the "shots" where row Z (that was my observation too) lets say we are being overly critical and of the 60 "shots" 20 were on target... thats still 0 goals for 20 x shots..... thats gotta mean poor technique, I dont know how else you can argue it?

If thats not the conversion rate they see at club level or in previous olyroos games then id say poor mentality or bad luck rather than poor technique. Poor is relative mind you, i dont think their finishing technique is world class, but more than good enough to score more often than they did from that many chances. Id place brook and milanovic at roughly slightly higher than silvera last year who played around 1700 minutes for a championship club this year and id put kuol and toure around mid league 1 level with toure slightly higher. Im not saying these are world class finishers, but they are a lot better than 0 goals from 60 shots

Btw I recall maybe 2 shots going into row z and a lot of gettable misses. Im skeptical of that claim
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Our failure in a qualifying tournament doesn't matter - decentric and razorblade are here to spin it away with stats.
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Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 3:57 PM
robbos - 2 May 2024 2:36 PM

Hahahha I would be REALLY worried if Nunez or Salah couldn't score against Indoensian defences. HAHAHAHAAHAHAHA

Yeah not good to lose to Jordan, some ex European Champion lost to Georgia, so things could be worse.
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localstar - 2 May 2024 6:59 PM
Our failure in a qualifying tournament doesn't matter - decentric and razorblade are here to spin it away with stats.

Not sure about after 32 years of failing to qualify for the world cup, we have qualified for the last 5 world cups and having had the best world cup ever in the last campaign.
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grazorblade - 2 May 2024 5:17 PM
 id put kuol and toure around mid league 1 level with toure slightly higher. Im not saying these are world class finishers, but they are a lot better than 0 goals from 60 shots

Btw I recall maybe 2 shots going into row z and a lot of gettable misses. Im skeptical of that claim

I also dug up shots on target and close misses.

A close miss is defined as missing the goal by circa 50 cm or half a metre.

AUS V JORDAN

Shots on target: Aus 5, Jordan 2.

Close misses : Aus 4, Jordan 1.



AUS V INDONESIA

Shots on target : Aus 8, Indonesia 1 ( goal).

Close misses: Aus 7, Indonesia 5.



AUS V QATAR

Shots on target : Aus 10, Qatar 1.

Close misses : Aus 8, Qatar 4.


TOTAL  - close misses or shots on target: Aus 42, opposition 14.

This is a ratio of 3:1 favouring Aus. It also equals 75% Aus, 25% Opposition, for shots on target or close misses over the three games.

However, of the low number of opposition shots, 14 out of 18 total number of shots were close misses or on target. 





Edited
Last Year by Decentric 2
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Barca4Life - 2 May 2024 5:04 PM
robbos - 2 May 2024 2:36 PM

I don’t think it’s relevant that you need world class players to break down and finish off a deep block defence it’s more to down to the type of players you have and how to use them.

The problem is Australian coaches in most cases are not good at coaching against deep blocks, it makes us predictable at this level. 

With all the data I've recorded for these 3 games, sadly, we broke down some pretty organised and compact defences in this Olympic qualifying tournament, but just couldn't score. 

As Grazor has sagely pointed out, the senior Socceroos have recently struggled to  break down defences as easily as the Olyroos, but of the lower number of chances they create, they convert a higher percentage of them to goals.

In the Olyroos lead up games, Aus were banging them in. 

The use of stats works both ways though. At senior level when we played South K in the senior Asian Cup quarter final, even without recording the stats I found it depressing how  South K dominated possession and territory, whilst arguably the few times we played balls into the   pen box, we had some good chances to score. 

Also, in one of the Aus U 23 practice games against Saudi Arabia U 23s, I   did not record data, but I remember  Saudi had 4 good chances to score in the first 10 mins - a bit like the Socceroos did against Iran in Melbourne in 1998.

Yet Aus U 23s beat Saudi  3-0! 

Saudi  made some awful defensive mistakes. Later Aus may have  dominated the game, but it is rare for any team to get 4 good chances in the first 10 mins and fail to convert all of them. I think the  3-0 result  totally flattered Aus U 23s in that game.
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grazorblade - 2 May 2024 2:44 PM
Monoethnic Social Club - 2 May 2024 2:01 PM

Stats are important for diagnosing a problem

If we have 60 shots including a penalty and dont score with some really good chances in those 60 shots it shows the problem is with finishing not chance creation (the socceroos against indonesia had about the same number of shots as goals by contrast)


Well said!

Valery Lobanovski, the great Ukrainian coach of Dynamo Kyev, and national Russian team coach, was the progenitor of using stats to analyse facets of play all over the pitch. Stats  don't depict the full picture, but coupled with comprehensive match  analysis criteria stats,  can be invaluable. VL along with Rinus Michels and Viktor Maslov, was also the progenitor of Pressing concepts in football.

  As I've alluded to  before, SAF and Arsene Wenger, pus Sam Allardyce, were the first coaches  to use  stats in the EPL. The former duo had resounding success. The stats gave them an edge according to esteemed football writer, Simon Kuper, in his book Soccernomics, as all EPL coaches now use stats as an accompanying tool to analyse matches played by their teams.

If VL, SAF or Arsene were analysing the  Aus U 23s, from the 60 shots to 18 stat, there would be a massive emphasis on the training ground  for shooting exercises -

 crossing and heading, crossing and getting to the near post and shooting,

crossing and getting to the far post and shooting,

interspersing near and far post and central targets,

dummy runs with one player trying to lead defenders to track him whilst another creates space,

 central attacking interplay and shooting,

 dribbling from three different left, central and right shooting positions,

 central  set pieces and shooting,

in match simulated scenarios of  4 v 4 or 5 v 5 with attack playing defence.

 Initially even 5 attackers v 3 defenders in the final third of the  pitch would be likely.
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https://youtu.be/e2refaykZgs?si=HQmD7DAtXHQRcnmQ

Japan Uzbekistan final highlights. Won't spoil yet. 
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Decentric 2 - 3 May 2024 8:46 AM
grazorblade - 2 May 2024 5:17 PM

I also dug up shots on target and close misses.

A close miss is defined as missing the goal by circa 50 cm or half a metre.

AUS V JORDAN

Shots on target: Aus 5, Jordan 2.

Close misses : Aus 4, Jordan 1.



AUS V INDONESIA

Shots on target : Aus 8, Indonesia 1 ( goal).

Close misses: Aus 7, Indonesia 5.



AUS V QATAR

Shots on target : Aus 10, Qatar 1.

Close misses : Aus 8, Qatar 4.


TOTAL  - close misses or shots on target: Aus 42, opposition 14.

This is a ratio of 3:1 favouring Aus. It also equals 75% Aus, 25% Opposition, for shots on target or close misses over the three games.

However, of the low number of opposition shots, 14 out of 18 total number of shots were close misses or on target. 





Yeah if u are getting your shots in transition you often have higher quality chances. So 14 out of 18 is no surprise. To miss so many shots on target or near misses (very few row zs it seems) needs an explanation. I favour mentality over luck. It would be interesting to know if there is a club side that had 3 games in a row like that
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How many times did we hit the frame? I counted at least 4 inc 2 that were tipped onto the frame.. very unlucky 
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We didn't help ourselves score by not picking our best forward. Coaching, team selection, injuries, returns from injuries all contributed as well.
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Bunch of Hacks - 4 May 2024 7:33 PM
How many times did we hit the frame? I counted at least 4 inc 2 that were tipped onto the frame.. very unlucky 

Glad you got the same.

I counted 3-4, and that was looking at replays.

Wasn't sure I was right?
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Quicky - 4 May 2024 9:54 PM
We didn't help ourselves score by not picking our best forward. Coaching, team selection, injuries, returns from injuries all contributed as well.

Irankunda has been in red hot form too.

What a mess the selection process was.
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