Joe Hockey says Opposition can't promise a Budget surplus either

by:
Phillip Hudson From:
Herald Sun December 22, 2012
12:00AM

THE federal Coalition has abandoned its guarantee to deliver a Budget surplus a day after Labor confessed it could not keep the nation's finances in the black.

Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey said because the government would not reveal the size of the deficit, he could not repeat the previous promise to have a surplus in every year of an Abbott Government.

"We are not going to make promises that we cannot keep," Mr Hockey said.

"If we don't know what the books are like, and the books haven't closed, then how could we possibly make those sort of commitments."

Treasurer Wayne Swan pounced on the comments saying it was "the sort of rubbish we expect from the Coalition economic team".

"For all his huffing and puffing over the past 24 hours, now he's quietly changing the Opposition's position."

Mr Swan defended his broken election promise saying it would not have been responsible to pursue the surplus and the government was putting "jobs and growth" first.

Mr Swan said there would be cuts in next year's Budget to "make room" for the national disability insurance scheme and a boost to education funding.

But he rejected calls by independent MP Rob Oakeshott to loosen the purse strings and have a new stimulus plan to boost economic activity.

Acting Greens leader Adam Bandt wrote to Mr Swan urging him to "reverse the harmful Budget cuts that have been made in the name of achieving the now abandoned surplus timeline".

Mr Bandt said the government should drop the January 1 hit to welfare payments for 150,000 single parents, a $499 million cut for university research and the redirection of $375 million in foreign aid to asylum seeker programs.

He said the Greens also wanted the Government to build high-speed rail, move dental into Medicare and increase the Newstart payment by $50 a week, which is supported by business.
Victorian Premier Ted Baillieu said it was "inevitable" the Federal Government would dump its surplus promise but criticised it for pushing problems onto state governments.

"We have been urging the Commonwealth to make sure they get their house in order," he said.
Mr Baillieu said Victoria had the strongest finances of any state and was on track to deliver a budget surplus in 2013.

- with Annika Smethurst

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/joe-hockey-says-opposition-cant-promise-a-budget-surplus-either/story-fndo2dsc-1226542060571

Labour acts now like they are in the opposition, everyone of their policies have failed, policies announced now are without funding or are to come to affect in the next two to five years. Labour has no idea what is required now.

How good is our education revolution? Revolution all right, spends billions only for our kids to come in 27th place for reading and 18th place in maths, behind some third world countries.

Our PM started new chapter in Australian politics “play the man and not the ball” by appointing John McTernan to dig dirt and there is a whole department concentrating on that alone so now the dirt has blown in their own faces and they do not like it.

Julia v Tony she fails on every point:
Not married, atheist, former communist, failed lawyer admitted to start a Slush Fund, name alone (according to the dictionary) means Illegal fund, stabbed in the back former PM to get to power, failed at every policy (please any one name one policy that worked or will work), after a CV like this why wouldn’t you start a dirt file on the opposition.

Notorganic you asked why is the press not bringing your points up about Tony.
The Australian press is left already starting with ABC and The Herald, so if they had something with legs they would, at the moment they got nothing on the coalition.

Abbott pledge of $4b in doubt

December 26, 2012
Lenore Taylor and Josh Gordon

THE Coalition's $4 billion vision of cranes rising over Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane within a year of its election has been thrown into doubt by Tony Abbott's transport spokesman.

Mr Abbott says he wants to be a prime minister ''who revels in seeing cranes over our cities, who revels in seeing bulldozers at work'' and he has promised three big projects - including Sydney's West Connex road and Melbourne's east-west link - would be ''under way within 12 months of a change of government.''

But in an interview with Fairfax Media, transport spokesman Warren Truss conceded a start date for the projects could be further away.

''The project in Melbourne … it still will require considerable time associated with planning and various approvals to get under way, the Sydney one as well, it is part of a bigger project now, and so there will be time … I think it will take at least a couple of years and maybe longer for those two to start construction, one would imagine,'' he said.

Mr Abbott has promised $1.5 billion to Sydney's West Connex road, $1.5 billion to the east-west link in Melbourne and $1 billion to Brisbane's Gateway extension road.

Each of the projects will also need substantial private sector investment. The Victorian government hasn't yet released the business case detailing how the east-west project would be funded, but Department of Transport estimates suggest it will cost at least $13 billion to complete.

Given Australia's relatively poor record at toll-road modelling and the fact that the companies behind recent projects such as Sydney's cross city and Lane Cove tunnels and Brisbane's Clem7 tunnels have ended up in administration, Mr Truss said the Coalition was looking for innovative ways a Coalition government could help. ''I've been approached with lots of ideas about how the government could share the investment risk on these projects,'' he said.

''I am not attracted to proposals where the government takes all the risk and the private sector gets all the profit, but risk sharing is something I am prepared to look at.

''We will have to find ways to leverage private sector funding, particularly the Sydney and Melbourne projects are likely to require a mix of Commonwealth, state and private funding.

''Investors say since toll finance projects haven't gone so well recently, they want an arrangement where the government takes some risk if toll revenue turns out to be less … once a patronage estimate has been established, there might be a formula under which a certain percentage of risk and profit is shared with the government, with the percentage getting bigger or smaller depending on the size of the divergence … I haven't said yes or no to that yet, but I am looking at it.''

None of the Coalition's projects was deemed ready to proceed on Infrastructure Australia's most recent assessment. The east-west link was assessed as having ''real potential'', the second lowest out of five categories, and behind a proposal for a new metro rail tunnel.

The Baillieu government has identified the project as a number one priority. Despite departmental advice suggesting a section from the Tullamarine Freeway to the Western Ring Road should be built first to provide a much-needed alternative to the West Gate Bridge, it has suggested its focus will be on the eastern part.



Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/abbott-pledge-of-4b-in-doubt-20121225-2bvfq.html#ixzz2G4US5iS0

Wayne Swan 'playing politics with jobless numbers'

From:
AAP January 20, 2013
2:39PM

THE QUEENSLAND treasurer says the federal government is playing politics with unemployment because his commonwealth counterpart Wayne Swan is in danger of losing his seat.

Tim Nicholls cited a ReachTEL telephone poll of 511 voters which showed Mr Swan, who is also deputy prime minister, was on track to lose his marginal northern Brisbane electorate of Lilley.

"When you look at some things, for example the ReachTEL poll that was widely reported yesterday, showing that the deputy prime minister and federal treasurer is struggling at 35 per cent, you understand entirely why the Labor government wants to play politics," he told reporters in Brisbane earlier today.

The poll commissioned by union United Voice showed Mr Swan had just 38 per cent voter support, compared with 45.2 per cent for his Liberal National Party challenger Rod McGarvie, who managed a 4.77 per cent two-party swing against the federal treasurer at the 2010 election.

. Mr Swan would lose his seat at the 2013 election with a 3.2 per cent swing, Australian Electoral Commission data shows.

The federal government last week held Queensland responsible for the jump in Australia's
unemployment rate for December, in the aftermath of 14,000 state public service retrenchments.

The national jobless average rose to 5.4 per cent as Queensland's jobless rate increased to 6.2 per cent, giving the state Australia's second highest unemployment rate after Tasmania.
Asked about the Australian Bureau of Statistics figures on Sunday, Mr Nicholls said: "We've made no bones about the fact we think that's not acceptable."

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/wayne-swan-playing-politics-with-jobless-numbers/story-fncynkc6-1226557612836

PM's right to punt on Peris
DateJanuary 22, 2013 - 4:47PM

Julia Gillard's coup in securing one of Australia's most successful indigenous athletes as a Senate candidate invites predictable criticisms and involves some risk, but is justified by the two words made famous by Gough Whitlam – it's time.

The PM conceded today that Labor's failure to endorse an indigenous candidate for a winnable seat was a blemish on an otherwise proud record in indigenous affairs, from Whitlam's gesture to Vincent Lingiari and Paul Keating's response to the High Court's Mabo decision to Kevin Rudd's apology to the stolen generations.

But to secure Nova Peris as Labor's number one Senate candidate in the Northern Territory, Gillard has been prepared to jettison Trish Crossin, a veteran senator with a strong record of standing up for indigenous Australians.

And by failing to consult Crossin and other Labor figures in the territory before sealing the deal, she has also risked provoking a local backlash against the woman she wants, Nova Peris.

Gillard has also taken a punt on a woman with little political experience and an occasional capacity to court controversy, inviting some to predict that it will all end in tears.

But the simple truth is that the Labor processes that Gillard has been prepared to override have failed indigenous Australia on numerous occasions in the past. Impressive indigenous candidates have put themselves forward, only to be rebuffed by vested interests.

Moreover, what Peris lacks in political experience is more than compensated by a capacity for hard work, dedication and a commitment to address disadvantage and see young Australians, especially those in remote indigenous communities, realise their potential and their dreams.

As Marcia Langton, who describes Peris as ''a truly great contender'' and helped establish her Nova Peris Girls' Academy in Darwin last year, puts it: ''The more Aboriginal people who play an active role in our formal political system, the better off we'll all be.''



Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/pms-right-to-punt-on-peris-20130122-2d4t8.html#ixzz2IgvLBU77

No safety in numbers
DateJanuary 22, 2013

The US presidential elections, we were told ad nauseam, were too close to call. Some such commentaries had a partisan motive, while others were based on ill-informed poll interpretations or plain timidity. In this election year, Australians can expect much the same muddied mix of commentary, with one obvious difference. The prevailing view is that Labor will lose office and it won't even be close.

With probably eight or nine months until election day, Tony Abbott's Coalition does still hold a handy lead in recent opinion polls, which show Julia Gillard's Labor government trailing by between 54-46 and 51-49 per cent on a two-party basis. The apparent stalling last month of Labor's climb out of its mid-term polling abyss was enough for some to declare the government was not competitive going into 2013. But what do polls themselves, as well as a closer look at their methodology and their history at this stage in the electoral cycle, tell us?

Let's start with the bleeding obvious, albeit the obvious often ignored in reporting of statistically insignificant shifts from poll to poll. The fine print on all polls declares a margin of error, usually about 3 per cent. This means there is a 95 per cent probability the real figure is within plus or minus 3 per cent of the reported levels of support. That covers the disparities between current polls. Of course, when multiple polls repeatedly show one side of politics leading, as they have almost without fail since the 2010 election, the degree of reliability is much higher.

Indeed, that was the case in the US presidential race, in which Barack Obama led Mitt Romney all the way to polling day in a large majority of the swing states on which victory depended. The focus on nationwide polls was misleading. State electoral college votes decide the presidency. State polls of likely voters consistently put Obama in a comfortable position to win the required 270 electoral college votes. Furthermore, US law prohibits polling of mobile phone users who, research shows, tend to be less conservative than voters who retain landlines, as one might expect. It should not have surprised when Obama won by 51-47 per cent, a margin of 5 million votes, and became the first president since Ronald Reagan to win two elections with an absolute majority of the national vote. Parallels with the US in Australia include the growing difficulties of polling voters without landlines. The frequent focus here on primary votes also recalls the wrongheaded reliance on national polls in the US. Australian elections are not decided on the primary vote but by preferences - especially now that one in five voters does not give their first vote to Labor or the Coalition parties.

Whereas conservative parties once split their vote and relied on preference votes to overtake Labor, the latter now relies heavily on preferences to boost a primary vote that is lower than in decades past. It would once have been unthinkable that Labor could hold office with a primary vote of 38 per cent, as in 2010, but that reflects the rise of the Green vote from 1.7 per cent in 1996 to 11.8 per cent, most of which flowed back to the ALP (much more strongly than Australian Democrats votes ever did).

No one remarks that the Liberals won ''only'' 38.7 per cent of the primary vote, tied with Labor's then 62-year low, in John Howard's landslide 1996 victory. All that mattered was the two-party vote of 53.6 per cent. Yet many commentators focus on primary votes even as they combine the Liberal and National parties' support for comparison with Labor.

Setting aside concerns about methodology and interpretations, polls have a record of changing in the sort of time that remains before Australians get to cast a meaningful vote. The history of the past 25 years, the modern polling era, shows that eight or nine months before the nine elections in that time the government trailed on the two-party vote on seven occasions. The government lost only twice, in 1996 and 2007. (There was a tie in late 1989 and a 10-point lead to the Rudd government in late 2009, which makes Labor's self-destruction in 2010 all the more extraordinary.) Averaging the polls for Fairfax and News Ltd eight to nine months out, the government trailed by roughly four points in 1986 and 1992, by six points in 1995, by two points in 1998, by 12 points in 2001, by two points in 2004 and by six points in 2007. In other words, the Gillard government's position is comparable with the support for four of the returned governments and clearly better than in 2001 and 2007. The Howard government survived deficits that blew out to 18 points at the eight-month mark in 2001 and eight points just two months before the 2004 election.

Does this mean we can confidently predict the Gillard government will retain office later this year? Of course not. Labor could be smashed. But assertions that Labor cannot win are equally baseless, especially as Abbott's near-record disapproval ratings are a handicap that did not apply to any past winner from opposition. My tip? If nothing big happens to alter the political landscape, the result will be decided by a couple of percentage points either way, which is the norm in federal elections. The bookmakers give Labor a one-in-three chance of victory, which seems reasonable odds at this point.

Voters have most of this year to make up their minds. While they do so we can expect to see the media closely track every little shift in the polls. This is a cottage industry that sells papers and attracts hits online. Regrettably, this polling business also influences the political mood and process far more than it should, especially as it is utterly irrational for even statistically random ups and downs to be treated as not only meaningful but predictive of what 14.3 million enrolled voters might decide after all the events of the year to come. With such mumbo jumbo, Nostradamus would feel right at home.



Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/no-safety-in-numbers-20130121-2d321.html#ixzz2Ihooor42

Katter party hopeful in gay furore
DateJanuary 23, 2013 - 5:38PM

.BOB Katter's new Australian Party's foray into Victoria for the federal election has hit controversy with a candidate likening gays and lesbians to paedophiles.

Tess Corbett, from Lake Bolac, is challenging Liberal MP Dan Tehan for the seat on behalf of the party.

In an interview with The Hamilton Spectator Ms Corbett said she considered gay people to be in the same category as paedophiles.

"Paedophiles will be next in line to be recognised in the same way as gays and lesbians and get rights," she said.

In relation to planned changes to the federal anti-discrimination act Ms Corbett said she thought organisations should be able to discriminate.

"I don't want gays, lesbians to be working in my kindergarten. If you don't like it go to another kindergarten," she told the Spectator.

When asked about her comments by Fairfax Media, Ms Corbett said gays and lesbians and paedophilies were "moral issues" saying she would rather spend her time talking about political and social issues.

It is Ms Corbett, who says she is over 60, first foray into politics. She has previously worked as a photographic processor, real estate agent and community services manager.

Mr Katter is on a whistlestop tour of Victoria – earlier this month he said he wanted to run a MP in every electorate at this year's federal election.

On Tuesday he attended a farmers rally in Warrnambool where he said candidates were already in place for 72 of the 86 seats in Queensland and that he was confident of having 20 branches up and running in Victoria by the end of next month.

Ms Corbett told Fairfax Media that she was attracted to the party because of Mr Katter's genuine love for Australia and its people.

"I admire the passion of the man," she told Fairfax. "He has become disillusioned with the major parties and the influence of the Greens."

Opposition to foreign ownership of agricultural land, the market domination of the supermarket giants and the selling off of state assets are major policies that Ms Corbett shares with the new party.

The Australian Party wants to reduce Coles and Woolworths market share down to 22 per cent.

Mr Tehan said the comments regarding homosexuals were a big test for Mr Katter.

"These comments are deplorable. They are bigoted and must be condemned," Mr Tehan said.

"If he stands by these comments from an endorsed candidate of his Party and fails to act, he deserves outright condemnation as well."

Mr Katter on Wednesday was asked about Ms Corbett's comments and told Fairfax Media that "he didn't talk about those things".

"If someone has made some statement like that, I'm bloody sure the party will be making arrangements," he said.

"The party is not interested in that, it never has been, never will be."

He said it angered him that media was interested in someone who had "made a very stupid statement" rather than looking issues such as the plight of farmers and manufacturing workers.

Asked about his party's chances at the election he said he did not like to predict, saying it was "up to the electors" but mentioned issues such as the Murray-Darling Basin Plan and the treatment of embattled dairy farmers as issues that would resonate in Victoria.

Mr Katter lashed the federal Coalition for allowing the controversial river plan to be passed.

If he is to have electoral success in the state it is most likely to come in the Senate. Minor parties have a strong record in recent Victorian Senate races, with the Democratic Labor Party's John Madigan currently representing the state – he followed Family First Senator Steve Fielding.

As well as being an outspoken voice for rural issues Mr Katter also uses his voice to advocate for workers, particularly in manufacturing and he has good relationship with some unionists.

Katter's Australian Party national director Aidan McLindon has been contacted for comment.



Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/katter-party-hopeful-in-gay-furore-20130123-2d75p.html#ixzz2InQFn8Mk

Labor MPs fearful after Julia Gillard dumps Senator Trish McCrossin for Nova Peris
by:
Gemma Jones From:
News Limited Network January 25, 2013
12:00AM

NERVOUS Labor MPs say anxious caucus members fear Julia Gillard may dispose of them before the election in the same way Senator Trish Crossin's career was terminated.

There are concerns within Labor ranks the tactic used to put Nova Peris into the NT's top Senate spot would be used to "entrench'' the leadership of the party.

Several MPs said they regarded the use of the National Executive to oust Ms Crossin, a supporter of Kevin Rudd, as an unprecedented use of power by Ms Gillard to remove a representative.

"There are a lot of caucus members who are worrying what it means for them if they are not seen as an absolute star or a supporter,'' one MP said. "It has set a very damaging precedent.''

The anxiety generated by Ms Crossin's knifing was exacerbated because Ms Gillard had previously seen off Kevin Rudd and Harry Jenkins from their positions, MPs said.
. One Labor MP even likened the move to end Ms Crossin's career to communist ideology of "executing one to educate a thousand''.

"She is heading down a dangerous path and setting a dangerous precedent if a leader can pick caucus members on the basis of patronage,'' the MP said."We are risking seeing candidates selected to entrench the leader.''
SA Labor MP Nick Champion yesterday told Sky he disagreed with the PM's intervention.
"I don't think that that's the best way to go - I think we're nearly always better having rank and file involvement in the preselections,'' he said.
Ms Gillard has said Ms Crossin's backing of Mr Rudd in last year's leadership challenge had nothing to do with her decision to endorse Ms Peris, who is assured a Senate spot and will become Labor's first indigenous representative in Federal Parliament.
The decision came in the wake of Labor being swept from power in the NT last August in an election in which indigenous voters abandoned the party to vote Liberal.
Ms Gillard began planning the move seven weeks ago and told Ms Crossin on Monday night at The Lodge but has said she would not routinely intervene in preselections.
Ms Crossin yesterday said in a Facebook update that thousands of people had sent her "messages of support and well wishes by text, Facebook, email and phone over the last few days.
Dozens of supporters posted replies including one who said: "I think what Julia Gillard has done to you is the same as what was done to Kevin Rudd. How dare they treat people like that.''

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/labor-mps-fearful-after-julia-gillard-dumps-senator-trish-mccrossin-for-nova-peris/story-fncynkc6-1226561198005

Abbott rallies the troops in Sydney

DateJanuary 27, 2013 - 12:17PM

.Federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has officially kicked off his unofficial mini-election campaign, saying this year's poll is the most important in a generation.

Mr Abbott released a new campaign blueprint which appears to backpedal on delivering a budget surplus within 12 months if he wins government.

The coalition's 50-page photo-rich glossy policy document, Our Plan: Real Solutions for all Australians, says "we will get the budget under control" but it does not mention a time frame.

Mr Abbott told an American presidential-style rally of 300 Liberal supporters in Sydney the coalition has been "listening" and strengthening its plans for Australia.

He described Australia as "a great country, a great people, shame about the government".

"I know our best days are ahead of us but our best days will only come if we change the government," Mr Abbott said.

He said the next federal poll will be the most important election in a generation, and 2013 will be the year Australians rediscover "their best selves".

"We have to have more freedom, that's what we have in the marrow of our bones, that's what's in the DNA of the Liberal Party," Mr Abbott said.

The opposition leader said his plan started with a strong economy.

He outlined in general terms the coalition's intention to cut taxes, abolish the carbon and mining taxes, boost productivity and slash red tape.

"A strong economy is what we need to produce the strong communities that each and every one of us belongs to."

The social fabric of Australia was what made the country strong, Mr Abbott said.

He hoped to improve it with his "fair dinkum paid parental leave scheme" and better child care that let women participate more in the workforce.

Mr Abbott again took aim at the carbon tax.

"Just think of how much hotter it would have been the other day but for the carbon tax," he said to laughter from the party faithful.

"Isn't it bizarre that this government thinks that somehow raising the price of electricity is going to clean up our environment."



Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-rallies-the-troops-in-sydney-20130127-2dekd.html#ixzz2J8fXxsDP

"Isn't it bizarre that this government thinks that somehow raising the price of electricity is going to clean up our environment."

Prime Minister Tony Abbott. Get used to it now.

Julian Assange to run for Australian Senate seat

From:
AAP January 30, 2013
8:42PM


JULIAN Assange will run for a Senate seat in the 2013 federal election and his mum reckons he'll be awesome.

Christine Assange has confirmed her son's candidacy, after WikiLeaks tweeted the news.
"He will be awesome," she said.

"In the House of Representatives we get to choose between US lackey party number one and US lackey party number two - between the major parties.

"So it will be great to `Assange' the Senate for some Aussie oversight."

Queensland-born Assange, who founded the secret-leaking website WikiLeaks, announced his Senate ambition last December from Ecuador's London embassy.

He sought refuge there last June in a bid to avoid extradition to Sweden.

Mr Assange fears if he goes to Sweden to be questioned over rape allegations, authorities will allow him to be extradited to the US to be questioned over WikiLeaks' release of thousands of US diplomatic cables.

. He said last year he would run as a Senate candidate under a yet-to-be-formed WikiLeaks party banner and was recruiting others to stand with him.
The election will be held on September 14.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/julian-assange-to-run-for-australian-senate-seat/story-fncynkc6-1226565414301

Prime Minister Tony Abbott. Get used to it now.

Oh the irony of labors anti-discrimination laws and Tims comments.