Lies, damned lies and Labor claims
DateMarch 6, 2013

I guess you've heard the news: the Gillard government has obtained new analysis of data from the Bureau of Statistics showing that Tony Abbott's election commitments inflict brutal damage on working families, particularly those in western Sydney, increasing taxes and cutting support to families.

According to Treasurer Wayne Swan, Abbott's commitments include scrapping the tripling of the tax-free threshold, axing the new schoolkids' bonus and abolishing family payments from the household assistance package introduced in June last year.

The government tripled the tax-free threshold from $6000 to $18,200 a year from July last year, we're told, delivering tax cuts to all taxpayers earning up to $80,000 a year. Most of these people received savings of at least $300 a year, with many part-time workers receiving up to $600.


The schoolkids' bonus is worth $410 a year for primary school students and $820 a year for secondary school students to families who receive family tax benefit part A.

The household assistance package increased payments to families who receive benefit part A by up to $110 per child and by $70 per family for those receiving benefit part B. The median family income in Fairfield is $106,000. This family, with two children both in primary school, father working full-time on $86,000 a year and mother working part-time on $20,000 will be almost $1500 a year worse off, we're told. The mother will pay $600 more in tax and they will lose $820 in schoolkids' bonus and $72 in other benefits.

The median family income in Penrith is $118,000. This family, with two primary and one high school student, the father earning $70,000 and the mother on $48,000, will be $2300 a year worse off, we're told. The father will pay $250 more in tax, the mother will pay $300 more, and they'll lose $1640 in schoolkids' bonus and $108 in other benefits.

Terrible, eh? There's just one small problem. This stuff is so misleading as to be quite dishonest.

For a start, this is just politically inspired figuring, which doesn't deserve the aura of authority the government has sought to give it by having it released by the Treasurer with a reference to ''new analysis of Bureau of Statistics data'' and allowing the media to refer to it as ''modelling''.

It's true you'd have to look up the bureau's census figures to get the details of the median family in a particular suburb, but after that the ''modelling'' could be done on the back of an envelope.

There's a key omission from Labor's description of its wonderfully generous household assistance package: why it was necessary. Its purpose was to compensate low and middle-income families for the cost of the carbon tax. Since the Coalition promises to abolish the carbon tax, Abbott has said that all the compensation for the tax will also go. (Strictly speaking, the schoolkids' bonus is linked to the mining tax, but the Coalition is also promising to abolish this tax, and Abbott has said the bonus, too, will go.)

The trick is that Abbott has yet to give any details of how or when these concessions would go and what they'd be replaced with. But this hasn't inhibited Labor. It has happily assumed what the Coalition intends and is presenting its assumptions as hard facts.

The most glaring omission from Labor's calculation of the hip-pocket effect of all this is its failure to acknowledge the saving households would make from the abolition of the carbon tax.

Based on Treasury's original calculations, this should be worth about $515 a year per household, including $172 a year from lower electricity prices and $78 a year from lower gas prices.

Some Labor supporters argue that even if the carbon tax is abolished, prices won't fall. This is highly unlikely. The state government tribunals that regulate electricity and gas prices would insist on it. And a Coalition government would no doubt instruct the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission to police the wider price decrease.

Labor's repeated claim to have tripled the tax-free threshold from $6000 to $18,200 a year has always been literally true, but highly misleading. That's because it conveniently ignores the complex operation of the low-income tax offset.

When you allow for this offset, which Labor has reduced and changed without removing, the effective tax-free threshold has increased by a much smaller $4500-odd from $16,000 to $20,542. This explains why the tax cut arising from the seemingly huge increase in the threshold is so modest (for many, $5.80 a week) and also why the move yields no saving to anyone earning more than $80,000 a year. For them, the threshold increase has been ''clawed back''.

The idea of a Coalition government bringing about an actual increase in income tax is hard to imagine. Labor omits to mention Abbott has promised a modest tax cut, though he hasn't said when it would happen.

Labor also omits to mention that the generous schoolkids' bonus replaced its earlier 50 per cent education tax refund, which offered savings of up to almost $400 a year on the eligible expenses of primary school students and up to almost $800 for secondary students.

Labor has assumed that Abbott would merely abolish the schoolkids' bonus without reinstating the education tax refund. Maybe he would; maybe he wouldn't - he hasn't yet said. But only a one-eyed Labor supporter would trust Labor to read Abbott's mind.

It didn't take the announcement of an election date to ensure the informal election campaign would begin as soon as we were back at work in January. It's a daunting thought.

But at least it gives people like me plenty of time to demonstrate the dishonesty of the claims being made.

Ross Gittins is the economics editor.



Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/lies-damned-lies-and-labor-claims-20130305-2fivr.html#ixzz2MhZ2QeVI

Howard won an election on intolerance and hatred of immigrants, Abbott is going to use it to strengthen.

Gillard is toast. She has no chance, if they are going to lose seats like McMahon (that's incredible, that's where I live and I'd never ever thought it'd fall probably in my lifetime), the party cannot stand idly by.

Howard won elections because he was the best PM this country had in decades. Four election wins is not down to luck or divisive politics.

Howard won elections because he was the best PM this country had in decades. Four election wins is not down to luck or divisive politics.

Australia's cotton-wool wrecking ball

Stephen Koukoulas

Australia has now had a price on carbon for a little over eight months.

Some people in positions of power and influence were expecting the carbon tax, as it has colloquially become known, to either “act as a wrecking ball across the economy” or be "absolutely catastrophic", "wipe out jobs big-time" while towns like Whyalla would be "wiped off the map" because of it.

Further, it would create “ghost towns” and “discourage investment” in mining.

Get the drift? There were forecasts that the carbon tax would completely undermine economic growth and market conditions.

How accurate have these projections been?

With economic data flowing in and financial markets trading over those eight months, it is possible to test the validity of forecasts of “wrecking balls” and catastrophe.

The facts below are all based on the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics or Reserve Bank data, unless otherwise indicated.

Since the carbon price was introduced:

– Real GDP has risen by 1.2 per cent (annualised growth rate of 2.5 per cent).

– Employment has risen by 53,400 people, made up of 30,000 new full-time jobs and 23,400 part-time jobs. The annualised rate of job creation is around 95,000.

– The unemployment rate has edged up to 5.4 per cent in January 2013 from 5.3 per cent in June 2012, just before carbon was priced.

– The stock market (All Ordinaries Index) has risen 25 per cent, adding approximately $296 billion to the value of Australian shares. A further $30 billion or so of dividends have been paid to shareholders since June 30, 2012.

– According to RP Data, house prices have risen 2.8 per cent since June 30, 2012, adding approximately $110 billion to the wealth of owners of houses.

At this point I might pause. Have a think about those last two points: the gains in stock market values and house prices alone have been nearly $410 billion in just over eight months. That is just under $50,000 per Australian household, on average.

– In terms of inflation, the CPI has risen by 1.6 per cent in six months, a figure which includes the boost to prices from the carbon price driven lift in electricity and gas prices. Underlying inflation has risen 1.3 per cent in the six months (annualised pace of 2.7 per cent) and this figure has also been inflated by the carbon price.

– The wages price index has risen by 1.5 per cent in six months (annualised pace of 3.1 per cent), locking in a period of moderate wage increases.

– Average weekly earnings have risen by $39.10 a week (from May 2012 to November 2012) with an annualised increase of $2035.

– The value of retail sales has risen by just 0.1 per cent (annualised rate 0.3 per cent).

– The number of new motor vehicle registrations has risen by 4.7 per cent with the six largest monthly number of new car sales ever recorded being registered in the last six months.

– The number of dwelling building approvals has fallen 10.1 per cent since June and the number of new housing loans for owner occupation has fallen 0.1 per cent over the same period.

– The NAB measure of business conditions has fallen from -1 points in June to -2 points in January, but business confidence has risen from -3 points to +3 points over the same timeframe.

– The Westpac measure of consumer sentiment has risen by 13.3 per cent since June to be at a 38-month high.

– The RBA index of commodity prices has fallen 5.4 per cent in Australian dollar terms since June and has fallen 2.1 per cent in US dollar terms.

– The RBA has cut the official cash rate from 3.5 per cent to 3 per cent.

– The 10-year government bond yield has risen a net 35 basis points to 3.40 per cent as of yesterday’s close.

– The Australian dollar has risen around 0.9 per cent as strong foreign inflows into Australia continue.

At the same time, Australia’s triple-A credit rating from all three ratings agencies remains unchallenged.

So a wrecking ball? Catastrophic? Wiped off the map?

The disconcerting thing is that all of those dire predictions from above were made by Tony Abbott, the man who studied economics at university and the man likely to be prime minister in a little over six months.

Until, of course, he went full retard in having full control of the house and senate.

Did Gillard reveal election agenda in on-air slip-up?

by:
By Malcolm Farr, National Political Editor From:
news.com.au March 07, 2013
12:13PM

THE Prime Minister came close to admitting her western Sydney visits ending today are part of the September 14 election campaign.

Julia Gillard caught herself half-way through the admission during a Sydney radio interview, but not before she appeared to acknowledge she was electioneering.

The Government has insisted the Prime Minister is concentrating on policy and governing and not in protecting the 10 western Sydney seats where the Liberals hope to perform well.

Ms Gillard appeared to contradict this on Sydney's 2SM when it was put to her she had not met voters outside scripted events.

"Yeah well that's all nonsense John. You know the media on the camp...." Ms Gillard started to say "campaign" before retreating from using the word.

"...you know, when they're following you around, press packs, they've got to talk about something," she said.

.
"When I'm here I wander around, talk to people. I've had the opportunity to talk to a lot of people and they are able to say whatever they want to say."

Today is the final outing for the Prime Minister's western suburbs sweep which began on Sunday, was suspended on Tuesday for a state funeral, and renewed over the following two days.

Ms Gillard today opened a jobs expo in the western suburb of Liverpool while Health Minister Tanya Plibersek announced a diabetes program in the centre of Blacktown.

The Opposition also has been in the area after a leak of the Prime Minister's plans to stay in a Rooty Hill hotel gave them five days to prepare a counter offensive.

The Government's emphasis has been on law-and-order and employment security with the Prime Minister claiming that rorting of the 457 visa - granted to overseas workers with skills not available locally - was taking jobs from Australians.

"As Prime Minister there is nothing more important than ensuring you have got work," the Prime Minister told her audience today.

Ms Gillard insisted she was talking to and listening to locals after being accused on 2UE of having never "slowed down to have a look at people".

Ms Gillard challenged the claim, saying, "You can't just say you saw me once and you are therefore assuming that that's what's been happening every other time.

"Every day I stop, I chat with people that I see. People like to get photos, some people like you to sign things, people want to tell you something that's on their mind."

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, also in western Sydney today, belittled the Prime Minister's visits.

"Western Sydney isn't like a foreign country to me. I don't have to make a big deal about my visits here," Mr Abbott said in the marginal seat of Lindsay.


http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/did-gillard-reveal-election-agenda-in-on-air-slip-up/story-fncynkc6-1226592335532

I don't think his heart was fully in that final election campaign either.

I think you're right there. Still, the people kept him in until they decided, rightly or wrongly, that his/Libs' government had run its course and they wanted a change. But it took 12 years.

6 years of Labor feels like a lifetime atm. Only two terms and the amount of fkups is unbelievable.

Deadline looms for Prime Minister Julia Gillard

by:
EXCLUSIVE by Samantha Maiden From:
The Sunday Telegraph March 10, 2013
12:00AM



JULIA Gillard's leadership faces a crucial fortnight with Labor powerbrokers privately canvassing the option of a delegation of MPs urging her to stand aside.
In another blow, an exclusive Galaxy Poll conducted for The Sunday Telegraph reveals the ALP's primary vote has dropped three points in the past month to just 32 per cent.
Faced with the choice between Ms Gillard, a fresh face or the man Ms Gillard replaced as prime minister, Kevin Rudd, only one in three voters believed Ms Gillard should remain PM.
While she is expected to fight off any further attempts to destabilise her leadership, Labor MPs bracing for more dire polls have warned it could prove unsustainable.
Galaxy revealed voters are divided over the leadership: 33 per cent believe Labor must elect a fresh face such as Bill Shorten or Greg Combet - a prospect MPs say is unlikely.


Confronted with the choice, 32 per cent of the total polled suggested the ALP should stick it out with Ms Gillard. Support for the status quo was strongest among Labor voters. Kevin Rudd was the third choice on 26 per cent, a surprise after several polls declared him a vote-switcher.
MPs returning to parliament on Tuesday are bracing for a Newspoll this week and Nielsen results next week, suggesting these figures hold the key to whether the Ms Gillard will tough out the fortnight.Kevin Rudd has repeatedly warned his backers he will not challenge for the leadership and would only agree to a political resurrection if it were accompanied by a smooth transition without a ballot.
"He is not going to challenge," a Rudd backer said. "When he says there's no challenge, he means it."
Giving Ms Gillard "the tap" and forcing her to stand down remains the only live option to remove her and reinstate the man she ousted in 2010.
But her backers have long warned giving up is "not in her DNA".
Former Labor powerbroker Graham Richardson confirmed last night he had spoken with Mr Shorten about shifting support to Mr Rudd, but he is not for turning. "All I can say is I always give him the benefit of my wisdom," Mr Richardson said.
"But he's not shifting."
"I believe the chances are 55-45 the leadership change will happen in the next fortnight. And I think they'll do it. "I think Rudd is probably high 40s to 50 (votes in caucus). If Newspoll comes out with a bad result I think she's gone."She doesn't listen to anyone. If you want a delegation, it would have Right-Left clout.
"Even her strongest supporters are starting to think, 'Is it all worthwhile?' I think it will be in the next two weeks but we will see.
"She's still got a good chance of surviving.
Labor was also on track for a devastating state electoral loss in WA last night as polling suggested federal factors were significant for some voters including anger over the carbon tax.
Ms Gillard has not set foot in WA since December, agreeing to orders from campaign chiefs not to participate in the campaign amid concerns voters' views about federal politics were "toxic".
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/deadline-looms-for-prime-minister-julia-gillard/story-fndo317g-1226593924698

Federal woes hurt Labor in the west
DateMarch 10, 2013 - 10:39AM

Labor's political woes federally impacted efforts by West Australian Labor leader Mark McGowan to defeat Premier Colin Barnett in Saturday's poll, according to two senior federal ministers.

Defence Minister Stephen Smith on Saturday evening remarked that Labor's "difficult period" federally had been a drag on Mr McGowan's campaign for government in the west.

"We've had a tough time federally - you don't need to be a rocket scientist to work that out - and there's no doubt we have been a drag on Mark, and there's no doubt that we haven't been helpful," Mr Smith said. "We have a range of tough political issues to work through between now and September."

On Sunday morning television, Immigration Minister Brendan O'Connor said he understood why Mr Smith had made that observation. While arguing the state result predominantly reflected local factors, including the strong economy, and the fact that Mr Barnett had only served one term in office, Mr O'Connor said Labor's position federally may have had an incidental effect on the result.

"Any challenges that might occur federally will sometimes splash on to elections that occur around the country," Mr O'Connor told the ABC.

Mr Barnett prevailed in Saturday's state election in the west, retaining office with a swing of more than 6 per cent.

Liberal view

With federal parliament set to resume in Canberra this week, senior Liberals moved quickly to link Labor's weak performance in WA over the weekend with the leadership of the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard.

The Liberal Party's Deputy Leader Julie Bishop declared on Saturday evening: "We have to look at the Gillard factor."

On Sunday morning television, Ms Bishop continued her argument that federal factors had been significant in the WA election result. She said the carbon and mining taxes had been big factors.

In a statement issued Sunday morning, the Opposition leader Tony Abbott congratulated Mr Barnett on the result, and said he looked forward to working with him.

"The election result is also a strong message to the Gillard-Labor Government, that their carbon tax and mining tax are toxic to the Australian economy, toxic for local jobs and are adding to people's cost of living pressures," Mr Abbott said.

On Sky television, former WA Premier Geoff Gallop said the weekend result underscored the fact Labor had "trust" problem with voters.

Former federal leader Mark Latham disagreed. "All these westerners saying it's Julia Gillard's fault – maybe they should look in the mirror."

Mr Latham declared WA Labor had done everything it could to minimise their vote, including removing a leadership candidate, Eric Ripper, who had economic credibility with the public. "If you campaign on dinosaur slogans, you get a dinosaur result."



Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/federal-woes-hurt-labor-in-the-west-20130310-2ftn0.html#ixzz2N6HP6ycW

Until, of course, he went full retard in having full control of the house and senate.

Elaborate..

Elaborate..

WorkChoices

Workchoices was taken by the Howard government to an election.

The people voted Liberal out and workchoices was never implemented

What does that have to do with having full control of both houses in the prior term? They could of pushed it through then, but they didn't and did the right thing by taking it to the people on election day.

Edited by sydneyfc1987: 13/3/2013 04:22:28 PM

WorkChoices was legislation by Howard's govt that required his both house majority to get through. It was repealed by Rudd in 2007, but had been effect for most of 2006 and into 2007. It was an election "issue" because he didn't have a clear mandate for it in 2005 when he pushed it through. It was not even mentioned in 2004.