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adrtho
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adrtho
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Trump would lose to either Democrat in Utah in the general election. Utah is, of course, one of the reddest states — if not the reddest state — in the country. "Any matchup in which Democrats are competitive in the state of Utah is shocking," Brigham Young University's Christopher Karpowitz said to the Deseret News about that result. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/21/why-utah-hates-donald-trump-hint-its-not-just-about-mormonism/Edited by adrtho: 23/3/2016 10:04:46 AM
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TheSelectFew
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11.mvfc.11 wrote:adrtho wrote:Trump got no chance to win running as a Republican anyway  The prefect tardtho gif
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adrtho
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TheSelectFew wrote:11.mvfc.11 wrote:adrtho wrote:Trump got no chance to win running as a Republican anyway The prefect tardtho gif and this is you walking the dog [youtube]D53OBy0_9Qo[/youtube]
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Drunken_Fish
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Trump is a huge underdog to Clinton in the GE. Still he is marching quickly to the nomination, he has won the winner take all primary in Arizona today, although he is going to lose badly in Utah where the Mormons are not fans.
I used to be Drunken_Fish
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adrtho
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11.mvfc.11 wrote:Drunken_Fish wrote:Trump is a huge underdog to Clinton in the GE.
Still he is marching quickly to the nomination, he has won the winner take all primary in Arizona today, although he is going to lose badly in Utah where the Mormons are not fans. Cruz was always winning Utah. The real test for him will be Wisconsin, with the next primaries being New York and the surrounding eastern states all likely to be Trump landslides. Also, I don't think Trump is an underdog to Clinton. There is no way she stands up in any debate with Trump, the only way she wins the election is if Cruz is nominated. Edited by 11.mvfc.11: 23/3/2016 04:15:30 PM it be not even close...there just not enough white voters for Trump to win
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AzzaMarch
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11.mvfc.11 wrote:Drunken_Fish wrote:Trump is a huge underdog to Clinton in the GE.
Still he is marching quickly to the nomination, he has won the winner take all primary in Arizona today, although he is going to lose badly in Utah where the Mormons are not fans. Cruz was always winning Utah. The real test for him will be Wisconsin, with the next primaries being New York and the surrounding eastern states all likely to be Trump landslides. Also, I don't think Trump is an underdog to Clinton. There is no way she stands up in any debate with Trump, the only way she wins the election is if Cruz is nominated. Edited by 11.mvfc.11: 23/3/2016 04:15:30 PM Trump is polarising. His overall vote take in the Republican primaries is still around 35% IIRC. In a 12-person, even a 3 person contest amongst republicans, that may be enough to win. But in a general election, in a 2-horse race, where many more people are engaged (specifically many more moderate people), the situation for Trump will be entirely different. In a general election, I think Trump and Cruz are both toast. The republican primary voters are far to the right of the general election voters.
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Gayfish
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adrtho wrote:11.mvfc.11 wrote:Drunken_Fish wrote:Trump is a huge underdog to Clinton in the GE.
Still he is marching quickly to the nomination, he has won the winner take all primary in Arizona today, although he is going to lose badly in Utah where the Mormons are not fans. Cruz was always winning Utah. The real test for him will be Wisconsin, with the next primaries being New York and the surrounding eastern states all likely to be Trump landslides. Also, I don't think Trump is an underdog to Clinton. There is no way she stands up in any debate with Trump, the only way she wins the election is if Cruz is nominated. Edited by 11.mvfc.11: 23/3/2016 04:15:30 PM it be not even close...there just not enough white voters for Trump to win it be very close, Trump is a man of the people of all races and will save America. I be right.
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adrtho
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Drunken_Fish wrote:Trump is a huge underdog to Clinton in the GE.
Still he is marching quickly to the nomination, he has won the winner take all primary in Arizona today, although he is going to lose badly in Utah where the Mormons are not fans. Trump need to win about 70 delegates today, to stay on track also, in Arizona today, we need look at the voting from today, because Arizona has a huge postal voting and many votes for Rubio
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Prosecutor
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Bernie crushing it in Utah and Idaho to get him a net plus of delegates on Hillary.
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adrtho
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Prosecutor wrote:Bernie crushing it in Utah and Idaho to get him a net plus of delegates on Hillary. because of Super delegates...Clinton needs only 600 more delegates out of the 2180 delegates left If the Republican had Super delegates like the Democratic, we wouldn't even be talking about Trump
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AzzaMarch
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Prosecutor wrote:Bernie crushing it in Utah and Idaho to get him a net plus of delegates on Hillary. Bernie is toast. It's delegate count that matters, not states. Democrat primary delegates are by and large allocated proportionately. Sanders is too far behind to catch up. In too many states he only just wins, whereas states that Hillary wins are generally of wide margins.
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Far Reich
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Trump is only 500 away from nomination.
it is anticipated he will take most/all of New York, Delaware, Pennsylvannia and Rhode Island next month, totalling close to 200
Indiana, Nebraska, New Jersey, Montana and South Dakota are likely his following that, totalling 107.
that means he only needs around half of the contended states to get the nomination.
it may not go to convention after all
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Dr Ben Carson
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11.mvfc.11 wrote:Far Reich wrote:Trump is only 500 away from nomination.
it is anticipated he will take most/all of New York, Delaware, Pennsylvannia and Rhode Island next month, totalling close to 200
Indiana, Nebraska, New Jersey, Montana and South Dakota are likely his following that, totalling 107.
that means he only needs around half of the contended states to get the nomination.
it may not go to convention after all
I want the guy to win as much as the next bloke, but 500 out of 900 is a hard number to achieve. Far Reich is probably not on your side. I'm calling sock puppet.
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Drunken_Fish
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If Trump wins California then there is 159 delegate there, although a lot of them are winner takes all by congressional district so he might not get all of them even if he wins by a reasonable margin overall.
I used to be Drunken_Fish
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433
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11.mvfc.11 wrote:Drunken_Fish wrote:If Trump wins California then there is 159 delegate there, although a lot of them are winner takes all by congressional district so he might not get all of them even if he wins by a reasonable margin overall. California has always been progressive liberal when it comes to politics, I can't see him winning many delegates there. When he's up against Ted "kill the gays" Cruz, I think he has a fairly good shot at the California primary. Remember he's competing for a more moderate type of conservative, which he does much better than Cruz in. 11.mvfc.11 wrote:Far Reich wrote:Trump is only 500 away from nomination.
it is anticipated he will take most/all of New York, Delaware, Pennsylvannia and Rhode Island next month, totalling close to 200
Indiana, Nebraska, New Jersey, Montana and South Dakota are likely his following that, totalling 107.
that means he only needs around half of the contended states to get the nomination.
it may not go to convention after all
I want the guy to win as much as the next bloke, but 500 out of 900 is a hard number to achieve. NY is 95 delegates or something, and if Trump wins with over 50% of the vote (which I think he will) then he gets all 95. This means he needs 400/800 of the remaining delegates, which is extremely doable in a 3 man race and a continuing plurality. Remember the race heads North East now, and Trump will do well in places like Indiana, Pensylvania, New Jersey, West Virginia and of course New York. Sure, 500/900 is roughly 55% of delegates, but a combination of winner take all states could push him over the line. Edited by 433: 23/3/2016 08:09:28 PM
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adrtho
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11.mvfc.11 wrote:Far Reich wrote:Trump is only 500 away from nomination.
it is anticipated he will take most/all of New York, Delaware, Pennsylvannia and Rhode Island next month, totalling close to 200
Indiana, Nebraska, New Jersey, Montana and South Dakota are likely his following that, totalling 107.
that means he only needs around half of the contended states to get the nomination.
it may not go to convention after all
I want the guy to win as much as the next bloke, but 500 out of 900 is a hard number to achieve. why do you want him to win? if Trump does what he says he will do, then there nothing good for Australia...Australia will have to spend so much more money on defense, because Trump will with drew US defense spending I don't get how the working man, see a guy who was born rich, who live with butlers and maids his whole life , who made his money from local and state government involved construction industry, will some how look after the working men.... you're are all such fools, Trump will have them all working below minimum wage at his country club, faster then to say the words"come in spinner" Edited by adrtho: 23/3/2016 08:21:58 PM
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Dr Ben Carson
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adrtho wrote:11.mvfc.11 wrote:Far Reich wrote:Trump is only 500 away from nomination.
it is anticipated he will take most/all of New York, Delaware, Pennsylvannia and Rhode Island next month, totalling close to 200
Indiana, Nebraska, New Jersey, Montana and South Dakota are likely his following that, totalling 107.
that means he only needs around half of the contended states to get the nomination.
it may not go to convention after all
I want the guy to win as much as the next bloke, but 500 out of 900 is a hard number to achieve. why do you want him to win? if Trump does what he says he will do, then there nothing good for Australia...Australia will have to spend so much more money on defense, because Trump will with drew US defense spending I don't get how the working man, see a guy who was born rich, who live with butlers and maids his whole life , who made his money from local and state government involved construction industry, will some how look after the working men.... you're are all such fools, Trump will have them all working below minimum wage at his country club, faster then to say the words"come in spinner" Edited by adrtho: 23/3/2016 08:21:58 PM The US will still come to Australia's aid if its attacked. Mr Trump only wants to charge occupied nations like Japan and Germany for the service the US has provided by acting as a proxy to their military. This is not the case with Australia. Completely different scenario.
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adrtho
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Dr Ben Carson wrote:adrtho wrote:11.mvfc.11 wrote:Far Reich wrote:Trump is only 500 away from nomination.
it is anticipated he will take most/all of New York, Delaware, Pennsylvannia and Rhode Island next month, totalling close to 200
Indiana, Nebraska, New Jersey, Montana and South Dakota are likely his following that, totalling 107.
that means he only needs around half of the contended states to get the nomination.
it may not go to convention after all
I want the guy to win as much as the next bloke, but 500 out of 900 is a hard number to achieve. why do you want him to win? if Trump does what he says he will do, then there nothing good for Australia...Australia will have to spend so much more money on defense, because Trump will with drew US defense spending I don't get how the working man, see a guy who was born rich, who live with butlers and maids his whole life , who made his money from local and state government involved construction industry, will some how look after the working men.... you're are all such fools, Trump will have them all working below minimum wage at his country club, faster then to say the words"come in spinner" Edited by adrtho: 23/3/2016 08:21:58 PM The US will still come to Australia's aid if its attacked. Mr Trump only wants to charge occupied nations like Japan and Germany for the service the US has provided by acting as a proxy to their military. This is not the case with Australia. Completely different scenario. you're a idiot,,,let me put this so you simple brain can understand it your good friend owes you $5,000 dollars, he a good friend, and you know he pay you back your good friend owns another person $15,000 , this other person is bigger and more important then you are, and always get paid first, which you don't like but you understand you friend say fuck it, i don't want to pay this other person back any more, and i what to pay less do you say to yourself A : it ok, because he not paying the other guy back This will not be the case with me B fuck, he not paying the bigger more important, which mean there a bloody high chance he win not pay me back now to you would pick A right? what Trump want to do, is rip up the policy of US Defense for last 50 year..
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Drunken_Fish
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Next up is Wisconsin where the winner will probably take 36. 39 or all of the 43 delagates unless it is extremely close when the winner might not get quite as many congressional districts (CD). This could be won by either Trump or Cruz. Cruz desperately needs to win it but Kasich might hurt him by taking votes from him in Trumps worst areas. Overnight Scott Walker all but endorsed Cruz which might help him. Then there is New York, which Trump is probably going to win and pick up at least the vast majority of the 95 delegates, although he might lose a CD or two. After that it does not get any better for Cruz. Trump will probably win New Jersey and California and not many of the remaining states look good for Cruz.
I used to be Drunken_Fish
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Murdoch Rags Ltd
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Quote:How to inoculate people against Donald Trump’s fact bending claims A potential Donald Trump presidency terrifies people worldwide. His racism, bullying, and enthusiasm for violence are a great concern for onlookers. But we see a positive in Trump’s candidacy: We can improve our critical thinking by using him as an example of how people spread misinformation. And there is no shortage of material to work with, given Trump’s firehose of falsehoods. Politifact found that 78% of Trump’s statements were Mostly False, False, or “Pants on Fire” (the most extreme form of false). Fact-checking websites, parody videos, and even a debunking speech by former governor Mitt Romney have highlighted his misinformation. But pundits and political scientists are mystified that this hasn’t hurt his level of support, with fact-checking efforts sometimes helping Trump and energising his supporters. Psychologists are quite familiar with the fact that die-hard supporters of an idea aren’t swayed by contrary evidence, which can backfire and strengthen preexisting attitudes. Indeed, trying to change the minds of headstrong Trump supporters may be largely futile. Communicating to the larger majority who are still open-minded to facts is more effective. Psychological research on science denial provides a model for how to reduce Trump’s influence on the general populace: inoculation theory.... https://theconversation.com/how-to-inoculate-people-against-donald-trumps-fact-bending-claims-56489 Edited by Murdoch Rags Ltd: 24/3/2016 12:27:32 PM
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paulbagzFC
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What about the people that would vote for hin simply to upset the established order? -PB
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adrtho
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Drunken_Fish wrote:Next up is Wisconsin where the winner will probably take 36. 39 or all of the 43 delagates unless it is extremely close when the winner might not get quite as many congressional districts (CD). This could be won by either Trump or Cruz. Cruz desperately needs to win it but Kasich might hurt him by taking votes from him in Trumps worst areas. Overnight Scott Walker all but endorsed Cruz which might help him.
Then there is New York, which Trump is probably going to win and pick up at least the vast majority of the 95 delegates, although he might lose a CD or two.
After that it does not get any better for Cruz. Trump will probably win New Jersey and California and not many of the remaining states look good for Cruz. Cruz doesn't have to win, Cruz just have to get enough support from the other high ranking republican, and then stop Trump getting 1237 this is now just about Trump getting to 1237 delegates or not..If Trump doesn't get 1237 delegates, then the republicans will changes the rules before the start of convention to make sure anybody but Trump is selected people forget, the voting is done by the delegates on the floor of the republican convention Edited by adrtho: 24/3/2016 07:51:46 AM
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adrtho
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Trump won Arizona 58 delegates, but most of those delegates are unbound if Trump doesn't get to 1237 , and they will not be voting for Trump
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AzzaMarch
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paulbagzFC wrote:What about the people that would vote for hin simply to upset the established order?
-PB This. People like him precisely because of his outrageous commentary. The more the media, politicians come out to oppose him, the more popular he becomes. He is the anti-politician. That is why he is dangerous. All his incentives are to act more over the top and upset people, whether he is using facts or not. He really is an American Berlusconi. The difference being that in parliamentary systems, populist parties win seats, join coalitions and get subsumed into the establishment. In the American presidential system, it is a winner-take-all scenario.
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Dr Ben Carson
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AzzaMarch wrote:paulbagzFC wrote:What about the people that would vote for hin simply to upset the established order?
-PB This. People like him precisely because of his outrageous commentary. The more the media, politicians come out to oppose him, the more popular he becomes. He is the anti-politician. That is why he is dangerous. All his incentives are to act more over the top and upset people, whether he is using facts or not. He really is an American Berlusconi. The difference being that in parliamentary systems, populist parties win seats, join coalitions and get subsumed into the establishment. In the American presidential system, it is a winner-take-all scenario. No, they like him because he walks the talk, they like him because he's funding his own campaign and they like him because he has genuine regard for the issues he raises such as trade, jobs and illegal immigration. You take the American voters for fools because you dont agree with their preferred candidate. Do you understand why the media are opposing him? Do you believe the media are acting in your interests? Tell me why you think Trump is dangerous as you put it?
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Dr Ben Carson
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adrtho wrote:so CNN just said that Trump would need to win 60% of all the delegates to get to 1237 delegates...that going to be hard
have to say Cruz will win Arizona , which is a winner take all
it be hard for Trump to get to 1237 delegates adrtho wrote:Trump won Arizona 58 delegates, but most of those delegates are unbound if Trump doesn't get to 1237 , and they will not be voting for Trump
Your predictions arent doing too well.
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adrtho
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Dr Ben Carson wrote:adrtho wrote:so CNN just said that Trump would need to win 60% of all the delegates to get to 1237 delegates...that going to be hard
have to say Cruz will win Arizona , which is a winner take all
it be hard for Trump to get to 1237 delegates adrtho wrote:Trump won Arizona 58 delegates, but most of those delegates are unbound if Trump doesn't get to 1237 , and they will not be voting for Trump
Your predictions arent doing too well. i was wrong om Arizona ..thought be close to mid west voting...Arizona was more like Florida but if i'm wrong, i lose money....un like you, you just get a different use name Edited by adrtho: 24/3/2016 12:19:03 PM
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adrtho
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Dr Ben Carson wrote:AzzaMarch wrote:paulbagzFC wrote:What about the people that would vote for hin simply to upset the established order?
-PB This. People like him precisely because of his outrageous commentary. The more the media, politicians come out to oppose him, the more popular he becomes. He is the anti-politician. That is why he is dangerous. All his incentives are to act more over the top and upset people, whether he is using facts or not. He really is an American Berlusconi. The difference being that in parliamentary systems, populist parties win seats, join coalitions and get subsumed into the establishment. In the American presidential system, it is a winner-take-all scenario. No, they like him because he walks the talk, they like him because he's funding his own campaign and they like him because he has genuine regard for the issues he raises such as trade, jobs and illegal immigration. You take the American voters for fools because you dont agree with their preferred candidate. Do you understand why the media are opposing him? Do you believe the media are acting in your interests? Tell me why you think Trump is dangerous as you put it? Trump not funding his own campaign...Trump loaning his campaign money on which he pay himself back as campaign funds come it it ok to be wrong...it not ok to keep saying lies
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Dr Ben Carson
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adrtho wrote:Dr Ben Carson wrote:AzzaMarch wrote:paulbagzFC wrote:What about the people that would vote for hin simply to upset the established order?
-PB This. People like him precisely because of his outrageous commentary. The more the media, politicians come out to oppose him, the more popular he becomes. He is the anti-politician. That is why he is dangerous. All his incentives are to act more over the top and upset people, whether he is using facts or not. He really is an American Berlusconi. The difference being that in parliamentary systems, populist parties win seats, join coalitions and get subsumed into the establishment. In the American presidential system, it is a winner-take-all scenario. No, they like him because he walks the talk, they like him because he's funding his own campaign and they like him because he has genuine regard for the issues he raises such as trade, jobs and illegal immigration. You take the American voters for fools because you dont agree with their preferred candidate. Do you understand why the media are opposing him? Do you believe the media are acting in your interests? Tell me why you think Trump is dangerous as you put it? Trump not funding his own campaign...Trump loaning his campaign money on which he pay himself back as campaign funds come it it ok to be wrong...it not ok to keep saying lies You should stop posting then.
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