The Australian Politics thread: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese


The Australian Politics thread: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese

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Toughlove
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Voted in the Senate

1/2 - Secular Party
3 - Science Party
4 - Labour
5/6 - Voluntary Euthanasia Party
7/8 - Nick Xenophon mob
9/10/11/12 - Labour


Edited
9 Years Ago by Toughlove
sydneycroatia58
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ABC now saying it's more likely than not we'll have a hung parliment
Edited
9 Years Ago by sydneycroatia58
grazorblade
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MrBrisbane wrote:
grazorblade wrote:
labour ahead in 9 seats more than expected and behind in 3 seats more than expected (66 seats). If none of those seats change and the rest of the country does what polls predicted we are looking at a hung parliment despite the swing being weaker than polls predicted
bizarre
those+6 seats though involve narrow leads so liberals have a lot of paths to victory

Edited by grazorblade: 2/7/2016 08:08:43 PM


So if it does go to a hung parliament, who has the better chance of taking it?

Was reading up and there has only been two hung parliaments in our election history, Menzies and Gillard.



Edited by MrBrisbane: 2/7/2016 08:17:43 PM


My money would be on labour to take a hung parliment
it would be an incredible result
they would probably a very long shot though to win more than one term if labour do win though because of 3 reasons
1. libs look like winning the popular vote quite convincingly. Winning government but not the popular vote makes for a very unpopular government
2. minority governments are easy to demonise
3. they have won some safe lib seats so they would almost certainly lose those

swings usually go against a first term government except in marginal seats (the sophmore effect)
Edited
9 Years Ago by grazorblade
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sydneycroatia58 wrote:
ABC now saying it's more likely than not we'll have a hung parliment


Hearing this too
Edited
9 Years Ago by Iridium1010
grazorblade
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Toughlove wrote:
Voted in the Senate

1/2 - Secular Party
3 - Science Party
4 - Labour
5/6 - Voluntary Euthanasia Party
7/8 - Nick Xenophon mob
9/10/11/12 - Labour


tsk tsk get their name right its the science AND cycling party

meanwhile one of the Christian parties has as a key policy more cycling lanes.
Is there a Bible verse on cycling I have missed?
Edited
9 Years Ago by grazorblade
scotty21
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We're getting a hung parliament again aren't we?

Also Greens picking up seats FFS. Why people why


Edited
9 Years Ago by scotty21
sydneycroatia58
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Pauline Hanson saying she's confident not one but two senate seats in QLD.
Edited
9 Years Ago by sydneycroatia58
Toughlove
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sydneycroatia58 wrote:
Pauline Hanson saying she's confident not one but two senate seats in QLD.


Fuck Qld'ers are dumb.

Where's that PB fella?
Edited
9 Years Ago by Toughlove
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when does the senate counting start? more interested in that tbh
Edited
9 Years Ago by Iridium1010
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So keen to see that evil cunt Scott Morrison cry on national television.
Edited
9 Years Ago by JP
grazorblade
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scotty21 wrote:
We're getting a hung parliament again aren't we?

Also Greens picking up seats FFS. Why people why


if every seat where the current party is in the lead holds and WA performs how polls predict then yes a hung parliment

a lot of those seats are close though and it doesn't take many to flip to libs to get a majority though
alternatively late vote in 3 marginal seats where labour are unexpectedly behind and a single unexpected result in labours favour in WA while holding all other seats means labour get an outright majority. I put that at a 10% chance, lower than the start of the night
Edited
9 Years Ago by grazorblade
Vanlassen
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mcjules wrote:
vanlassen wrote:
Tasmania is traditionally held by Labor and has the strongest Green vote in the country and is the worst state in regards to economic performance and people say it's a myth that the Liberals are good economic managers.
Haha what a way to twist it :lol:

Care to twist it another way?
Edited
9 Years Ago by vanlassen
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grazorblade wrote:
MrBrisbane wrote:
grazorblade wrote:
labour ahead in 9 seats more than expected and behind in 3 seats more than expected (66 seats). If none of those seats change and the rest of the country does what polls predicted we are looking at a hung parliment despite the swing being weaker than polls predicted
bizarre
those+6 seats though involve narrow leads so liberals have a lot of paths to victory

Edited by grazorblade: 2/7/2016 08:08:43 PM


So if it does go to a hung parliament, who has the better chance of taking it?

Was reading up and there has only been two hung parliaments in our election history, Menzies and Gillard.



Edited by MrBrisbane: 2/7/2016 08:17:43 PM


My money would be on labour to take a hung parliment
it would be an incredible result
they would probably a very long shot though to win more than one term if labour do win though because of 3 reasons
1. libs look like winning the popular vote quite convincingly. Winning government but not the popular vote makes for a very unpopular government
2. minority governments are easy to demonise
3. they have won some safe lib seats so they would almost certainly lose those

swings usually go against a first term government except in marginal seats (the sophmore effect)


Cheers mate.



Edited
9 Years Ago by MrBrisbane
thejollyvic
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Toughlove wrote:
sydneycroatia58 wrote:
Pauline Hanson saying she's confident not one but two senate seats in QLD.


Fuck Qld'ers are dumb.

Where's that PB fella?



Edited
9 Years Ago by thejollyvic
Toughlove
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grazorblade wrote:
Toughlove wrote:
Voted in the Senate

1/2 - Secular Party
3 - Science Party
4 - Labour
5/6 - Voluntary Euthanasia Party
7/8 - Nick Xenophon mob
9/10/11/12 - Labour


tsk tsk get their name right its the science AND cycling party

meanwhile one of the Christian parties has as a key policy more cycling lanes.
Is there a Bible verse on cycling I have missed?


Edited for brevity but yes Science and Cyclist party. Good on the them.
Edited
9 Years Ago by Toughlove
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thejollyvic wrote:
Toughlove wrote:
sydneycroatia58 wrote:
Pauline Hanson saying she's confident not one but two senate seats in QLD.


Fuck Qld'ers are dumb.

Where's that PB fella?




:lol:



Edited
9 Years Ago by MrBrisbane
grazorblade
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people should keep in mind that libs have more paths to absolute majority so the most COMMON (mode) result from here is a hung parliment but the most likely is a lib majority
Edited
9 Years Ago by grazorblade
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Iridium1010 wrote:
when does the senate counting start? more interested in that tbh

Edited
9 Years Ago by vanlassen
mcjules
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grazorblade wrote:
MrBrisbane wrote:
grazorblade wrote:
labour ahead in 9 seats more than expected and behind in 3 seats more than expected (66 seats). If none of those seats change and the rest of the country does what polls predicted we are looking at a hung parliment despite the swing being weaker than polls predicted
bizarre
those+6 seats though involve narrow leads so liberals have a lot of paths to victory

Edited by grazorblade: 2/7/2016 08:08:43 PM


So if it does go to a hung parliament, who has the better chance of taking it?

Was reading up and there has only been two hung parliaments in our election history, Menzies and Gillard.



Edited by MrBrisbane: 2/7/2016 08:17:43 PM


My money would be on labour to take a hung parliment
it would be an incredible result
they would probably a very long shot though to win more than one term if labour do win though because of 3 reasons
1. libs look like winning the popular vote quite convincingly. Winning government but not the popular vote makes for a very unpopular government
2. minority governments are easy to demonise
3. they have won some safe lib seats so they would almost certainly lose those

swings usually go against a first term government except in marginal seats (the sophmore effect)
I think we'll likely stay with the incumbents in a hung parliament. I'd be happy enough with that result.

It's interesting ABC can't work out the Xenophon vote here. It's partially parochialism (he's always voted in SA's interests) but also the LNP royally screwed us with Holden's and the subs until Pyne and a few others found themselves in trouble.

Insert Gertjan Verbeek gifs here

Edited
9 Years Ago by mcjules
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julie bishop just insulted xenophon

if we are in hung parliment territory there will be some fast backpeddling :D
Edited
9 Years Ago by grazorblade
thejollyvic
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grazorblade wrote:
julie bishop just insulted xenophon

if we are in hung parliment territory there will be some fast backpeddling :D


what she say im flicking between the rubgy, footy and election
Edited
9 Years Ago by thejollyvic
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thejollyvic wrote:
grazorblade wrote:
julie bishop just insulted xenophon

if we are in hung parliment territory there will be some fast backpeddling :D


what she say im flicking between the rubgy, footy and election


that he has no policies
Edited
9 Years Ago by Iridium1010
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thejollyvic wrote:
grazorblade wrote:
julie bishop just insulted xenophon

if we are in hung parliment territory there will be some fast backpeddling :D


what she say im flicking between the rubgy, footy and election


basically he is an idiot with no solutions and she can't understand why anyone would vote for him :D
Edited
9 Years Ago by grazorblade
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Please tell me someone else saw James Mcgrath and Alan Jones going off at eachother like fucking children on channel 7 :lol:
Edited
9 Years Ago by sydneycroatia58
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grazorblade wrote:
thejollyvic wrote:
grazorblade wrote:
julie bishop just insulted xenophon

if we are in hung parliment territory there will be some fast backpeddling :D


what she say im flicking between the rubgy, footy and election


basically he is an idiot with no solutions and she can't understand why anyone would vote for him :D


:lol:



Edited
9 Years Ago by MrBrisbane
thejollyvic
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grazorblade wrote:
thejollyvic wrote:
grazorblade wrote:
julie bishop just insulted xenophon

if we are in hung parliment territory there will be some fast backpeddling :D


what she say im flicking between the rubgy, footy and election


basically he is an idiot with no solutions and she can't understand why anyone would vote for him :D


rofl its like a bunch of primary school kids giving reasons as to why you cant play
Edited
9 Years Ago by thejollyvic
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I probably shouldn't be asking this but what has happened to Murdoch Rags?
Edited
9 Years Ago by vanlassen
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sydneycroatia58 wrote:
Please tell me someone else saw James Mcgrath and Alan Jones going off at eachother like fucking children on channel 7 :lol:


:lol: Damn, wish I did but don't really watch channel 7.



Edited
9 Years Ago by MrBrisbane
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2pp nationally so far according to AEC 50.01 to libs 49.99 to labour
labour could in theory win the popular vote
early voting strongly favoured libs and labours popular vote has grown throughout the night
Edited
9 Years Ago by grazorblade
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MrBrisbane wrote:
sydneycroatia58 wrote:
Please tell me someone else saw James Mcgrath and Alan Jones going off at eachother like fucking children on channel 7 :lol:


:lol: Damn, wish I did but don't really watch channel 7.


:lol: It was the one time I've been glad to have the tv on 7
Edited
9 Years Ago by sydneycroatia58
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