http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Nate Silver correctly predicted the result of all fifty states for the 2012 Presidential election, and got forty-nine from fifty in 2008.

His current polls-only forecast has Clinton with an 80% chance of victory; his polls-plus forecast (probably more realistic, including demographic trends and factoring for historical conventions) gives her a 74% chance.

about the same as bookmakers

Nate Silver has been wrong about Trump every time he has opened his mouth in the past year.

Why stop now?

How predictable. His punditry might have been wrong, but his model hasn't been - it correctly called the winner of 53 of 58 Republican primary contests. If anything his biggest fault was not putting enough faith in his own maths.

Why can't Trump supporters just accept that their candidate is a massive underdog? You're delusional if you think otherwise.

weather channel been wrong, every day this year and all other years

I'm not a Trump supporter, but whatever.

Keep finding excuses for King Silver, the magical numbers man who's been demonstrably worse at predicting primaries than pure chance and gut feel.

Doesn't matter though, as you said even when he's wrong it not his fault.

A lot of that criticism is unfair. For example, regarding the British election - fivethirtyeight were saying BEFORE the election that there were issues with the polling done in GB.

Also, providing explanations as to why the predictions were incorrect is not making excuses. It is just analysis as to the reasons why.

You can prefer fivethirtyeight's analysis or not, but they are very transparent as to their methodology and analysis, both before and after the elections.

Aside from all that, whatever the faults in the 538 model - and there are faults, undoubtedly - the fact they give Clinton such good odds of winning the election is indicative of the fact that Trump remains a huge underdog.

sorry? what has been better at predicting ? every prediction model is wrong if it doesn't get it 100% right

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/nov/23/donald-trump/trump-tweet-blacks-white-homicide-victims/

Not the first time that Trump has regurgitated blatant lies and it won't be the last.

FBI say Clinton and her staff were very careless in their handling of emails but they wouldn't be recommending any charges against Clinton and that no reasonable prosecutor would bring a case against Clinton

Yup, talk about career suicide rofl.

-PB

"8 U.S.C. Section 793(f)
Whoever, being entrusted with or having lawful possession or control of any document ... relating to the national defense, (1) through gross negligence permits the same to be removed from its proper place of custody or delivered to anyone in violation of his trust, or to be lost, stolen, abstracted, or destroyed, or (2) having knowledge that the same has been illegally removed from its proper place of custody or delivered to anyone in violation of its trust, or lost, or stolen, abstracted, or destroyed, and fails to make prompt report of such loss, theft, abstraction, or destruction to his superior officer, Shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both"

lol.

-PB

Comey basically saying that she's completely inept, and her actions would have seen her fired as SoS and rendered ineligible to run for President... but because she's not in that job anymore, it's fine.

And that people who take actions against Clintons generally end up in a pool of their own blood having shot themselves twice in the back of the head.

Trump supporters can overlook all the horrid shit their idol spews on an hourly basis, yet they froth at the mouth and demand that Hillary be executed for using the wrong email server :lol:

From some Youtube comments on vids.

Surely this is not just "behind her" now.

-PB

Haven't seen them, to be fair.

Happy for you to enlighten us!

Bernie endorses Hillary.

Conceded at last.

Wonder if he will be pinging for a VP job haha.

-PB

Lol. The thought of socialist lefty bernie sanders supporters dumping their anti 1% corporate elite anti establishment occupy wall street movement and turning around to clap and cheer for the mother of the political establishment and ultimate wall street cawwk sucker lol

Much like the republican establishment swallowing back their vomit and supporting Trump???

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/

Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton   Quinnipiac   Clinton 41, Trump 43   Trump +2
Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton   Quinnipiac   Clinton 41, Trump 41   Tie
Florida: Trump vs. Clinton   Quinnipiac   Trump 42, Clinton 39   Trump +3
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein   Quinnipiac   Trump 40, Clinton 34, Johnson 9, Stein 3   Trump +6
Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein   Quinnipiac   Trump 37, Clinton 36, Johnson 7, Stein 6   Trump +1
Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein   Quinnipiac   Trump 41, Clinton 36, Johnson 7, Stein 4   Trump +5

These are the only polls that matter.

I think the wide disparity in GE polls vs swing state polls is just the margins that Hillary is beating Trump in blue states and the lower margin she is losing in red states. If Hillary gets 90-10 in Cali/NY, and is relatively close in red states, it won't matter a single bit. I believe these wide margins are skewing GE polls so that it appears Trump is losing handily in the popular vote (which he may well be), but the thing is is that the electoral college determines the vote, not the popular.


As long as Trump can win PA, OH and FL in addition to Romney's map, then he's won.

Just my $0.02.

Not much like that at all, really.

The Republicans don't have much policy complaint with Trump other than his anti-establishment trade policies. Just that he's rude, offensive, "racist" and "crazy".

Clinton is pretty much the antithesis of Sanders on policy all over the board.

Bernie-or-Busters also aren't an amorphous group. There's a very large chunk that will vote Trump because he's a better liberal than Clinton is.

Some will vote Greens, some will hold the nose and eventually vote Clinton. Probably the largest section won't vote at all.

The most disturbing thing of it all is the vitriol being levelled at Bernie-or-busters with the attitude that somehow Clinton is now owed their vote because Bernie has now endorsed her.

Clinton has done nothing publicly to win those votes over, and the Democratic party has spat on them throughout the entire primary. Who's thinking that upping the levels of public shaming is a viable strategy?

I think that debate between Bernie-or-busters and Hillary supporter is really the vocal minority. However, the actual risk is that they don't vote at all. They won't go to Trump in large numbers, especially since Bernie himself has repeatedly said that his mission is to "keep Trump from becoming President".

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/147342251861/trumps-glide-path

I love Scott Adams analyses. He was the first one I saw publicly identify Trumps style of influence and show why it's so effective.

He knocks it out of the park again here

Yep, these polls do seem to be of good quality. Fivethirtyeight actually have an article specifically about these results.

Based on them, they have increased Trump's likelihood of winning from 23% to 29%.

The article is quite interesting in terms of explaining their methodology in why they rate this poll as more credible than some others.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/

"Hopefully, this gives you a sense of why the Quinnipiac polls moved the model’s numbers a fair amount, when other polls don’t:

On the one hand, Quinnipiac’s polls have been Republican-leaning, and we have a lot of other polls of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Those factors limit the damage to Clinton. But pretty much everything else about them was bad for her. They came from a highly rated pollster, and they took fairly large samples. The trend lines were negative for Clinton.

And we shouldn’t neglect that the polls came in three really important states. Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio have 67 electoral votes combined, whereas Virginia and Colorado, where Clinton had stronger polls, have 22.

If that’s the to-do list when evaluating new polls, there are also a few to-don’ts. Here’s what not to do when you see a potential “outlier".”

Trump selects Pence as his running mate.

So much for being anti-establishment.

Obama selects Biden as his running mate.

So much for being black.

Sanders sides with Clinton

So much for being anti-establishmemt

Hillary Clinton trying to pander to the younger generation with a shitty Pokémon Go reference at a recent function.