Not long to wait. 

Most in Aus have no idea Kiwis have played better than Oz overseas, because they don’t have payTV. 

They also have little idea Kiwis are ranked number 2 in the world whilst Oz are about 5th. 

I’ve been educating quite a few TCA Members in the last few days, pushing the line we are a powerhouse on home wickets, but a struggling team abroad.

Those who have pay TV know about the innocuous Aussies in Asia and  usually subscribe to the same view as me. 

The media here is as usual writing off the Kiwis. 

40 degrees is terrible weather for cricket though. 

Bring it on. Pity it is not a 5 tester. Yes when I read of anyone writing off the Black Caps I remind them of that also DC. We dont want to go into this series complacent as those Kiwis are more than capable of giving us a shock or two. They love nothing better than smacking Big Brothers bum.. I call us cuzzies.. cousins.

Aus have been poor at home also, with the loss to India a low point. Though the Aussies were in disarray for quite some time but after the last couple of series, look like they might be on the way back. 

Thankfully who plays better elsewhere recently is not going to be as relevant as who plays better in Aus, once the series gets under way.

The kiwi's are a good side, far better than they have been for a long time. They won't be easy to beat. Good chance for them to solidify their possie near the top of the rankings and keep Aus down. Will they take it?

Interestingly, if Aus manage to take the first test, they will be equal second in the rankings with the kiwis. The latest rankings has Aus in 4th, a poor series will see them in 5th. A poor series from the kiwis will have them leapfrog Aus, Poms and Saffers downwards to 5th in the rankings (and with their next series against India).

Unlikely that will happen, but if it did, what a shame it would be :) .

https://www.icc-cricket.com/rankings/mens/rankings-predictor/test

This Kiwi team goes back to December 2013, and has consistently featured Latham, KW, Taylor, Watling, Boult, Southee, Wagner, Nicholls replaced BMac in 2016, CDG has been a constant since a surprised selection in late 2016. 

Wagner didnt play for some reason in 2015 in Aus, but Boult and Southee did, and outside the pink ball test, didn't offer up anything in attack. Santner debut'd in the test, and will likely play tomorrow, but when both sides are being skittled out for low 200 and less, his wickets at over 30 were too expensive. 

NZ's only hope for mine is Wagner's bouncers and a surprise but successful debut for Fergo. Getting the timing right for this pink ball test is also important. Aus played the last one vs Pak perfectly to have a new ball at night. I dont think NZ has the bowlers for Melbourne, we need luck for the Pinky to get  a new ball under lights at some point, else we in trouble there, and while we have a great spinner for Sydney, William Sommerville, for some reason he is not on the tour. 

I think the NZ bowlers are in trouble, and I dont thinkt he right ones have been or further will be selected.

I am looking forward to tomrrow, though :) But as Baggers knows, this isn't my primary forum, so if NZ is getting smashed, don't think I've run away, Baggers and Dec know where I will be complaining. :)

I don't know why everyone is complaining about the heat. It's not even going to be 40 tomorrow - only 39! :D

Wagner is a good player, great attitude, but his bouncers are way over rated. Mostly got token "declaration" wickets that way against us with batsmen given licence to take him on. Similar to the Poms from what I hear, lot of tail end wickets.

Ferguson could be ok though. Seems to have plenty of pace, whether he will have the discipline needed for our wickets another thing. Will be interesting to see how he goes.

Will be interesting to see the make up of the attack in general. Southee in particular has been horrendous in Aus. If there's no swing, there's no real point in him playing.

A nice balmy day that  :) . Seems to get over 40 regularly anywhere in Aus lately (except for Tassie of course).

It's very dry heat in Perth, at least. None of this sweaty nonsense.

Agreed on Southee. And many in NZ feel the same way. 

Disagree that discipline is needed on your wickets. Starc and Johnson, and Thommo before them never had discipline. Just pace. Pace works in Australia if you're aggressive.

You're totally wrong about Wagner. On many fronts. Firstly, he has only played one match against Australia. And Aus didn't even have a lead when he bounced out Smith. When he bounced out Voges, Aussies' lead was not even 100, declaration mode my bum. Voges, Lyon, Marsh and Nevill crawled along at a SR of under 50. There was no declaration token. That's a fairy tale. 

https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/8418/scorecard/914239/new-zealand-vs-australia-2nd-test-australia-tour-of-new-zealand-2015-16

Sorry but that is a bum statement. He single handledly pulled NZ back into the match with that 6/for. But the second innings, Australia showed more discipline with him. And he only got Warner's wicket. Will your guys be more disciplined this time, or back themselves and get out again like so many others have? Or will they smack over the fielders for 6?

As for the Poms, Wagner never went into full leg theory mode in the second test. And in the first, most of what he did was keep changing his release spot on the crease. Against the Poms, Wagner took Denly, Pope, Buttler vs Archer and Broad, Root and Buttler vs Broad; 2nd test: Crawley, Pope and Woakes vs Archer and Broad. Lots of tail end wickets? Well he took Broad 3 times, and Archer twice, so 5 of his 13 were tail enders. He was by far the most effective bowler on display, which included Archer, Boult and Broad - the last of which I dont ever rate.

Gotta say waiting most of the day for the first ball to be bowled dont go down well with me. Ok for you workers as the late start suits you. Me I will be twiddling my thumbs for most of the day..that and playing with my pooches..and cleaning the fire debris from my pool.

I love the idea of day night tests myself. Even on the weekend. Who wants to be sitting in front of a tv screen at 10am in summer?

Yeah, got Burns for 170, Smith for 138, big bouncer bully he is. They must be terrified. :laugh: 

It's not like we were approaching 500 or anything when he got the tail.....oh, wait on.....

Also not like they wanted to get the kiwis back in and give themselves a chance on that road...surely would have batted on.....oh wait on again...looks like we had just enough time to get up comfortably on day 5 lol...

He would have been better off trying to keep the Aussies in. Only chance to salvage a draw was if the Aussies batted too long (was never really going to happen though).

Seem to remember him being about 1/100 against the poms last match when they had about 450 up and surely must have been considering putting the kiwis in (to have any hope at all of a result). Shortly thereafter he was about 5/120 odd. Looks like he got numbers 7-9-10-11 lol. Some ability that to suddenly become a bouncer demon when the opposition has 450-500 on the board and would surely require you to bat soon. Invaluable. Saves teams going to the trouble of actually declaring at least.

You keep dreaming Paddles.

Disagree that discipline is needed on your wickets. Starc and Johnson, and Thommo before them never had discipline. Just pace. Pace works in Australia if you're aggressive.

Thought you said Starc was rubbish? If he can terrorise batsmen like Midge in those Ashes, good for him. You seem to be overlooking that Aus bowlers learn how to play in Aus, they haven't much choice.

If you think visiting bowlers only need pace here and won't pay a price for being off line/length, that would be excellent. The figures of Harmison, Akhtar and Roach, seem to indicate quite the opposite. Pace is only one part of it.

Dude, I pasted the scorecard, did you even read it? Wwhat was the score when he got Smith? Aus hadn't even gone past NZ's. 

I am sorry the scorecard does not match your declaration fairy tale, but it does not match your declaration and license fairy tale. In anyway - shape or form. Deal with the facts. 

As for the rest, I told you exactly which batsmen Wagner got out. Exactly which batsmen. If you're not talking about England declaring, look at how the match finished, NZ had already built a significant lead only 2 wickets down... England were bowled out with a lead of 101. Again, your declaration fairytale doesn't make sense. And he didn't bounce most these guys out.

Do you need another look at the scorecard?

To the fast bowlers, Roach isn't even particularly that fast.

Harmison in 2006/7 iirc had gained weight and was not at 2005 pace nor fitness. He was about to be dropped altogether in 1 year.  And Akhtar was pretty effective  at times in Australia in his second tour, he sucked on his first when he had played  - and that was against your super team. Wanna see how the WI quartet did in Aus? ;) Or India's last attack? Or the last 3 Saffir attacks in Aus? 

You seem quite passionate, and that's good. But I think it may be in my best interests for site enjoyment to block you from here on. No offence. I am just not enjoying conversing with you.

Dec - how do I block a user in this site?

I'm enjoying you and Flyslip going at it hammer and tongs, Paddles.

So what if you disagree. At least you are both passionate about cricket and opinionated and like to think you know a lot  about  the game. Who am I to argue? I've leant a bit from both of you.

I've learnt about where flyslip is,  and how to bowl a carrom ball and doosra from your arguments.

I like day/night tests  too.

Who have we lost to besides South A and India in
the last 5 years? 

I thought we have been quite strong at home. 

Ha ha!

Agree with your last statement, Flyslip. 

One of the fastest bowlers in the world, Tas’s Riley Meredith reduced his pace and shortened his run up from 20 paces to 14 against South Aus in the second dig.

He was more effective, taking wickets,  bowling less bad balls and was more accurate. His pace was slower because keeper Doran stood closer to the stumps. 

Pretty hot for cricket, Thingy Bob.

What sort of pooches do you have?

Indeed. If you see a melted pancake in a big floppy hat next to the sightscreen on tv, that will be me. :D

I'm enjoying you and Flyslip going at it hammer and tongs, Paddles.

I am enjoying someone not taking any crap from Paddles who clearly dont like it when someone dares disagree with his point of view.

I will be looking for that big floppy hat Bobbie. What color.

I have a pair of Havanese.. one male (Bubbles) one female (Bonnie) She is the baby. Pity I cant post their pics here.

People are free to disagree with me - and I enjoy rigorous debate. 

Flyslip is simply someone I would rather not converse with. 

He uses endless sophistry and fallacial reasoning that I cannot be bothered engaging with. 

If you want an example: I said discipline is not needed for those who are fast and aggressive (short pitch and yorkers etc), and gave 3 examples of fast Aussie bowlers who had no discipline. He then strawman's that to only pace is needed, and then points out that 3 fast bowlers failed in Aus. So what? Jo Angel failed in Aus too. It does not change that the 3 I named had no discipline, and have achieved results in Australia. Now if he wanted to say, the best in Australia in recent times, Lillee, McGrath, and Hadlee were ultra discplined and accurate, and had far better results than Mitch, Thommo and Starc, that would be fine and fair. But it doesn't change my original point. At all. He would be making a new point. Just like he could with McGrath, who finished quite slow, to which my counter would be his height. But again, this would be a new point. And a new exception. Everyone knows McGrath was a tall human metronome. He is an exception, not the rule, with his low pace, but he still had his height. Look at your selection history, S Clarke was dropped for no pace - couldn't be more accurate. Bollinger also dropped for going slow. Sidds since dropping in pace - gone. Even then - the more modern metronome Vernon Philander with his less height, has not done as well in Aus as he would like. Don't think S Pollock - despite his accuracy didn't do well in Australia at all averaging 34+. But these are all new points. Doesn't change, a fast aggressive guy can succeed in Australia with stuff all discipline.

 SA last 3 attacks, and India's had pace. Englands and NZ in 2015 did not - and got smashed all too often.

And tbh, I find Flyslips declaration arguments even worse. As for the bouncer argument for Burns and Smith's score, either he didnt watch the game - or just assumed Wagner had been doing in his original spells. Wagner didn't. He started doing it much much later in the innings. So again, this is sophistry. Did flyslip intend to do it? Or is he just ignorant? I don't know and I don't care.

I have better things to do than argue with people who repeatedly use sophistry either intentionally or non-intentionally. 

I'll happily debate with you, Dec, Mike, or most other people. Flyslip - I am putting a line through at this point.

Anyway - it has been announced on Kiwi radio that Fergo's will be debuting. 

So - what does this mean for the rest of the team?

1 Raval (out of form and would be dropped if Young not injured)
2 Latham
3 KW
4 Taylor
5 Nicholls
6 Watling +
7 CdG
8 Santner
9 Southee
10 Wagner
11 Boult 

The options are to drop Southee - but its a pink ball test that may swing. Drop Santner for Ferg - lose batting but strengthen the pace. Drop CdG for Santner and bring Ferg in - I hope not.

I'd be dropping Santner I think.

Ferguson is very quick, but has he got the stamina for test cricket? Might be best to bowl him in three over spells. The Kiwis will need someone to do some donkey work and stock bowling in that heat. 

I seem to  remember Philander and Kyle Abbot destroying Australia on our  home pitches and bowling about 125kph - 130 for South Africa.

They were pretty accurate.

We have a less than established batting line up too.

I'm worried the Kiwis are going to beat us.

Abbott is still a 140 bowler still years later :P And Hobart is not the typical Aussie pitch neither. And Adelaide was a day night test pitch wicket - the second ever in Aus*. Abbott got very lucky with his 2 tests in Aus :P

Philander is slow, but his record in Aus is far less impressive than it is elsewhere at over 30 - his career average is 22.

* Philander only took 2/120 in that same match though - Abbott was osme bowler. 

Doesn't change, a fast aggressive guy can succeed in Australia with stuff all discipline.

I agree. All he needs is a fast track.. which we have.. plenty of bounce..which we have.. and an aggressive nature.. which we have. Those three you mention certainly will not win any awards for accuracy but they can rip thru a batting lineup with ferocity over what the disciplined bowler can do.