Screw it, here’s one thread for all things Coronavirus related, I have a feeling we’re going to need it.

800 people just died in Italy in 1 night, but Sydneysiders are flooding Bondi.

Tasmania has shut its borders, SA thinking of doing the same. Smart tbh, I wish NSW could do the same, instead we’ve got most of the new cases from people getting off planes.

And boats. That pisses me off the most.

I was talking to some friends about where this will sit in history for the last 80 years among 9/11, princess diana’s death, tiananmen square massacre, global financial crisis, collapse of the soviet union, korean war, JFK’s assassination etc, is it safe to say this will be the biggest world event since World War 2?

Is it worth risking economic catastrophe that could linger for decades in order to save the lives of 80 year olds who are likely to die in the next decade or two anyway?  Youngish people are mostly impervious to this disease, why cant they be the ones to expose to it to build up herd immunity, while those most at at risk self isolate?  Sure the health system will suffer and there will be many deaths, however is that short term pain in just one sector of society not as bad as allowing millions of people and businesses to lose their jobs and plunging the country into long term perhaps irrecoverable economic position?  They knew about the devastating effects of the Spanish flu in 1918 but they kept it under wraps because the priority was winning the war effort, it may be so that governments will need to prioritise the economy and the interests of broader society above savings life.  It takes lives to save lives sorta thing.

Our health system would completely collapse if we did that,  sure younger people are less susceptible but they are still taking up hospital beds, and long term,  not to mention young people with compromised immune systems,  heart, lung issues, cancer etc will have massive issues with it and then ontop of that you have people who won't be able to get care with other issues because the system is fucked due to covid-19. More than just covid-19 sufferers would die. 

On a different point, with victoria going to essential services only... what constitutes an essential service,  i work in a business that deals with the CFAs uniforms,  is that essential cause id assume so, my wife works in dental, I'd assume urgent dental would be essential but neither of our workplaces have been informed from our various associations even though this was quite clearly going to happen weeks ago. 

The health system wouldn’t “collapse”, the only way that would happen is if all the doctors and nurses died and untreated patients ran riot through hospitals stealing all the tech.  The health system would continue to function though obviously it would be overwhelmed and many will die.  But you have to balance the short term interests of the health sector with the long term consequences to society, no one is quite sure what the right balance is.  I take your point about long term risks such as compromised immunity etc, however the general consensus seems to be that at this point, until such time that a vaccine or cure is found (if at all), 60-80% of the population WILL get this virus.  The current measures being taken are done to essentially buy time, and use that time to lessen the burden on hospitals therefore save lives.  But time costs money, and the long term cost to the economy may outweigh the lives saved and indeed cost more lives in the long run.  I would give the current measures two months to get the virus under control, that is the government
learns to controls the infection rate through policy, but if there is only moderate improvement it may be necessary to rip the bandaid off in the long term interest of society.  

The horror of all this aside there are a lot of economists and professionals who are using this to test their own theories. It'll be a case study for many fields like that of the tsunami for insurance coverage and risk management. 

Seasoned risk managers are certainly less concerned about this with the calculations of when a curve can be flattened and the time it should take for appropriate medications to be made. Despite that, people are the most erratic thing going so it throws a lot of things around for a while. 

World event most likely. This is a constant thing whereas the nuclear arms race had ebbs and flows. 

Honestly, it'll be annoying as hell when people constantly refer to this over the coming years. With the economic damage ever apparent, how long will this be used by employers and governments as an excuse? It'll be an excuse across society almost and will have the expectation of being accepted to mask one's incompetence. 

Ah Rusty.  Trust him to come in with a contrarian viewpoint.

They're saying in the UK they only have 1 ventilator for the predicated 8 that will need one.  So basically they'll have to pick one person to save and let 7 die.

The hoohaa and carry on about Bondi is ridiculous though.  From a mathematical point of view If you can have 25 people in a 10m by 10m room what does it matter how many you have on a beach that's a kilometre long x 100m wide providing the equivalent density is maintained?

I understand they're trying to make a point but it's nonsensical to say that 25 people in a small room, indoor mind you with little ventilation, is OK but the same density on a beach isn't.  (Even if that number exceeded 500.) 

I asked the same question on Facebook and because it's a cesspit of stupid people I didn't get much of an answer.  It blows my mind that the government goes we're going to close down all non-essential services and then they don't stipulate what is and isn't a non-essential service.

Based on what they've done in some states of America though non-essential is pretty much anything recreational.  IE: Gyms, pubs, cafes, theatres etc.

Its really grinding my gears! My wife's work is an essential service,  they have so many pain patients and if they can't open then those people are sent to a hospital... makes total sense. But the people running her work are in a mess getting directives from different places saying different things. 

In my instance,  i work at a glorified dry cleaners, we will lose the general public but we do work for dentists,  police and alot of work for CFA. I can't see how we won't be running,  they need their PPE. But again ive called a few people and got differing opinions. 
Absolutely disgraceful. 

Closures everywhere

For all of the noise that millennials have made about how selfishly other generations have acted (home-ownership, climate change etc) - now’s your time to shine ...............

Some stats from Italy.
- 8.2% of their medical profession are infected now.
- 9% is the death rate in Italy due to an overload on the system.
- Italy had 3 time’s the amount of ICU beds compared to Australia.

The thing which people miss out on is that we are part of a global economy. Our economy is already in recession due to the outbreak. To pretend that we can grind it out and build herd immunity so things can quickly return to normal is not going to work. 

While Italy has the oldest population in Europe, Australia isn't exactly young and that's my concern. The ICU bed calculation is per capita rather than total I take it. I asked my Nan how the attitude was at bingo and the vast majority aid they felt fine and out of danger. They're a bloody stubborn bunch that generation.

Well for all the people screaming out for an economic reset, here it is in part! The very wealthy have lost a lot but still have a lot. They can also wield their wealth to park the money to grow when things improve.

What annoys me is how governments are throwing all this stimulus about when they could've speculated a small fraction of that in better times to enhance services regardless. Our services should essentially be oversupplied and overstaffed ready for the biggest wave. While expensive this should still be lower than money wasted on stupid parliamentary stuff and economic negligence.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/food/restaurants-bars/coronavirus-in-australia-everything-that-shuts-on-monday-from-pubs-to-cafes-and-cinemas/news-story/ec4d2ebf4eb9f048f6572c5a943112d8


From Monday at midday, Australia will become a vastly different place to live as pubs, clubs, restaurants, cinemas and indoor sporting venues across the country shut down indefinitely.Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced a new raft of unprecedented restrictions on non-essential gatherings in a bid to slow the rapid spread of coronavirus.

Don't worry about your Nan.  According to Rusty when it comes to the economy she's expendable.

I never said that. 😄  But if I had to choose between a 15% chance nan dies and an economic collapse it wouldnt be a hard decision.

Trust Muz to come in with a contrarian viewpoint.

The Government is providing support for individuals to assist them during the
next six months.
INCREASED AND ACCELERATED INCOME SUPPORT

Summary
The Government is temporarily expanding eligibility to income support payments and establishing a new, time-limited Coronavirus supplement to be paid at a rate of $550 per fortnight. This supplement will be paid to both existing and new recipients of the eligible payment categories. These changes will apply for the next six months.

Eligibility
Payment categories
The income support payment categories eligible to receive the Coronavirus supplement are:
• Jobseeker Payment1
(and all payments progressively transitioning to JobSeeker Payment; those
currently receiving Partner Allowance, Widow Allowance, Sickness Allowance and Wife Pension)
• Youth Allowance Jobseeker
• Parenting Payment (Partnered and Single)
• Farm Household Allowance
• Special Benefit recipients
Anyone who is eligible for the Coronavirus supplement will receive the full rate of the supplement of $550 per fortnight.

Expanded access
For the period of the Coronavirus supplement, there will be expanded access to the income support payments listed above.

• Expanded access: Jobseeker Payment and Youth Allowance Jobseeker criteria will provide payment access for permanent employees who are stood down or lose their employment; sole traders; the
self-employed; casual workers; and contract workers who meet the income tests as a result of the economic downturn due to the Coronavirus. This could also include a person required to care for someone who is affected by the Coronavirus.
• Reduced means testing: Asset testing for JobSeeker Payment, Youth Allowance Jobseeker and Parenting Payment will be waived for the period of the Coronavirus supplement. Income testing will still apply to the person’s other payments, consistent with current arrangements.
• Reduced waiting times:
The one week Ordinary Waiting Period has already been waived.
1 Under changes announced in the 2017-18 Budget, from 20 March 2020, JobSeeker Payment replaces Newstart
Allowance as the main income support payment for recipients aged between 22 years to Age Pension qualification
age who have capacity to work.

To further accelerate access to payments, the Liquid Asset test Waiting Period (LAWP) and the
Seasonal Work Preclusion Period (SWPP) will also be waived for recipients eligible for the
Coronavirus supplement.

: People currently serving a LAWP will no longer need to serve that waiting period.

The Newly Arrived Residents Waiting Period (NARWP) will be temporarily waived for recipients
eligible for the Coronavirus supplement. When the Coronavirus supplement ceases, those
people that were serving a NARWP will continue to serve the remainder of their waiting period,
though the time the person was receiving the Coronavirus supplement will count towards their
NARWP. Residency requirements still apply.
Income Maintenance Periods and Compensation Preclusion Periods will continue to apply, as
payments under these arrangements are treated as income.

People will not be permitted, and will need to declare that they are not, accessing employer entitlements
(such as annual leave and/or sick leave) or Income Protection Insurance, at the same time as receiving Jobseeker Payment and Youth Allowance Jobseeker under these arrangements.
From 20 March 2020, Sickness Allowance was closed to new entrants and was replaced by the JobSeeker Payment. This does not mean that people who previously may have been eligible for Sickness Allowance are now unable to access income support. JobSeeker Payment better accommodates individual circumstances, including assisting people who are sick or bereaved.

Faster claim process
Accelerated claim process: To ensure timely access to payments, new applicants are encouraged to claim
through on-line and mobile channels. If applicants do not have internet access, they can claim over the phone.
• From April 2020, Services Australia will allow new applicants to call to verify their identity to reduce the need to visit a Services Australia office.
• To claim online, people who do not already deal with Services Australia will need to set up their
myGov account, call to verify their identity, and get a link to their Centrelink online account.
• Applicants for Jobseeker Payment and Youth Allowance Jobseeker will:
Make an initial declaration about their identity, residency status, income and that they have
been made redundant, or had their hours reduced (including to zero) as a result of the
economic downturn due to Coronavirus.
In the case of sole traders and the self-employed, applicants will make a declaration that their
business has been suspended or had turnover reduced significantly.
• Applicants may also declare the amount of rent they pay in this declaration to qualify for Rent
Assistance.
• Services Australia has effective measures in place to detect those seeking to defraud the social
security system. Anyone fraudulently claiming a payment will need to pay the money back and may
face imprisonment.

Streamlined application process: A number of simplified arrangements will be put in place to make it easier to claim, including removing the requirements for:
• Employment Separation Certificates, proof of rental arrangements and verification of relationship
status;
• Job Seeker Classification Instrument assessment for those people who have recently left jobs,
recognising they are job ready; and
• Job seekers to make an appointment with an employment service provider before they can be paid.

Flexible jobseeking arrangements

Those receiving Jobseeker Payment have an obligation to actively look for work or build their skills, but the Government is making sure this can be done flexibly and safely.
• Jobseekers who have caring responsibilities, or who need to self-isolate, are able to seek an
exemption from their mutual obligation requirements without the need for medical evidence.
• Activities can be rescheduled if the job seeker is unable to attend as a result of the Coronavirus. Job
Plans will be adjusted to a default requirement of four job searches a month (or one a week) to
reflect softening labour market conditions.
Mutual obligations can be tailored for each individual to suit not only their needs but also the needs of the community. In some circumstances, job seekers can undertake training or volunteer within their community to meet their mutual obligation requirements.

Sole traders that become eligible for the Jobseeker Payment will automatically meet their mutual obligation requirements during this period by continuing to develop and sustain their business.

Job seekers are encouraged to stay job ready, connected to their employment services provider and up to date on potential job opportunities in their local area.

These changes ensure that job seekers can reliably access income support, safely look for work, fill critical
vacancies as they emerge, develop their skills and job preparedness, contribute to their community and help the economy to bounce back stronger.

Timing
The Coronavirus Supplement and expanded access for payments will commence from 27 April 2020.

Budget impact
The expanded access to income support payments and the Coronavirus supplement will operate as a demand driven program. These measures are expected to cost $14.1 billion.

Example
Leonie is in her mid-30s, with two dependent children aged 10 and 12 and works as a telephone
consultant for a travel agency. The economic downturn due to Coronavirus has caused the travel agency where she works to close for a six month period, and resulted in Leonie’s hours being reduced to zero.

Leonie will be eligible to apply for JobSeeker Payment and the Coronavirus supplement under the new streamlined process.
Leonie can apply on-line and make a declaration about her identity, residency status, income and that she has had her hours reduced to zero as a result of the economic downturn due to Coronavirus.

Leonie is eligible for Jobseeker Payment and will receive $1,171.50 per fortnight, comprising:
• JobSeeker Payment single, with dependent child rate of $612.00 per fortnight; plus
• Energy Supplement of $9.50 per fortnight; plus
• Coronavirus supplement of $550 per fortnight.
Leonie will also receive Family Tax Benefit Part A and Part B of $483 a fortnight.
Having recently left employment, Leonie is already job ready.
An employment service provider will look to match Leonie’s skills with available opportunities (for example, in another call centre) so Leonie’s skills can be used in another industry and Leonie can get another job quickly.


Example
Chris is a sole trader, running an architecture practice, specialising in home renovations. Chris’ practice has been successful over the years, and he has been able to build up a reasonable amount of assets during his career, to a level that would ordinarily make him ineligible for an income support payment.

The economic downturn due to Coronavirus has adversely affected Chris’ business, and his income has been reduced to zero.
Chris will be able to apply for the new JobSeeker / Coronavirus supplement and will not have his assets included as part of the eligibility assessment for the payment. He will also not be required to serve a Liquid Asset test Waiting Period, as that has been waived.
Chris is eligible for the Jobseeker payment and, as he is married, will receive:
• JobSeeker Payment partnered rate of $510.80 per fortnight; plus
• Energy Supplement of $7.90 per fortnight; plus
• Coronavirus supplement of $550 per fortnight
This brings Chris’ total fortnightly income support payment to $1,068.70.

That's a long post. Apologies about any formatting I may have missed. At least this is straight from the horse's mouth unlike the abundance of news articles with vague information.

That’s the thing. An economic collapse was going to happen anyway.

That’s true. The balancing factor is Italy has around 25% of its population older than 65. We are at around 16%.

Scubes, the answer to your essential services act lies at a very subjective and I imagine hard to police line. 

http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdb/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/esa1988208/

Maths is not a contrarian viewpoint. It's math.

BTW.  Speaking of nonsensical.   According to Scomo kids can go to school but not a shopping centre.  Go figure.

I'm wondering when this thing is 100% through the community will they take off all the restrictions. 

Because what's the point of closing everything down to stop people getting it if everyone has been exposed to it?

I never said that but yes I did.

Thanks for the clarification.

Ari have no idea why they let people off the boat before awaiting results ffs

-PB

Heard that press conference with NSW health.  Absolute train wreck.

My guess is people coming back into the country are less likely to visit a school than a shopping centre.