2023 World Cup: How FIFA's council members will likely vote and why
By Dominic Bossi
June 25, 2020 — 12.01am


In the early hours of Friday morning, Australia and New Zealand will know whether they have won hosting rights for the 2023 Women's World Cup.

Up against only Colombia, after Japan's withdrawal this week, the trans-Tasman bid will need to sway at least 18 of the 35 eligible voting members of FIFA's council to land the biggest event in women's football. Here is how it could go down.

Infantino has been tight-lipped about his preference for the 2023 Women's World Cup but his actions during his four years in office bode well for Australia and New Zealand. He has embarked on a cleansing of FIFA's tainted image, promoting transparency and accountability. With the Women's World Cup bidding process, that has taken the form of releasing all bid books, publication of FIFA's technical evaluation of each option and will be concluded by revealing all votes on Friday morning. The purpose is to ensure bids win on merit, not politics.

If he is true to his ethos, Australia and New Zealand have every right to feel confident of receiving his vote having been evaluated as the strongest bid by FIFA's technical committee.
Predicted vote in favour of Australia and New Zealand: 1/1.

AFC, Asia
The withdrawal of Japan's bid for the 2023 Women's World Cup prompted Asia to throw its support behind Australia and New Zealand. After the ASEAN Football Federation backed the trans-Tasman bid, the Asian Football Confederation's highly influential president, Sheikh Salman bin Ibrahim al-Khalifa of Bahrain, voiced his support through the AFC's media channels. It effectively ensures Australia and New Zealand of all seven votes from Asia while also making his ambitions known to his supporters in other regions.

Predicted votes in favour: 7/7

CAF, Africa
According to a FIFA source, CAF rarely swims against the tide of FIFA. That's not to say that will definitely be the case on Friday morning but the form guide makes for good reading for the trans-Tasman bid. Not only have FIFA's technocrats evaluated Australia and New Zealand as the strongest bid but senior figures have come out in support of it.

Most notably, Sheik Salman who wields significant influence in Africa. The continent was arguably his strongest supporter base in the 2016 FIFA presidential election. It could be influenced by his public backing of the trans-Tasman bid.
Predicted votes in favour: 7/7

UEFA, Europe
Europe remains the great unknown leading into Friday's vote, making the game's most powerful continent the potential kingmaker. UEFA is a longstanding antagonist of FIFA, clashing over control and finances. The two organisations are in the midst of a feud over a FIFA plan to expand the Club World Cup to 24 teams, which could challenge UEFA's Champions League. Friction over club versus country is also an ever-present wedge.

UEFA is the confederation least likely to toe the FIFA line and is also potentially the least likely to vote as a bloc, according to bid sources. The trans-Tasman bid should be confident of being supported by the FIFA council members of more established women's football countries - such as Italy, France and England - due to the strength of the bid.

Beyond that, the situation becomes murky and votes could be influenced by football politics and geopolitical ties.

Compounding the uncertainty is the strong relationship between UEFA and CONMEBOL. Europe and South America's status as the heavyweights of world football have made them political allies, which could aid Colombia's cause.
Predicted votes in favour: 3/9

CONCACAF, North and Central America
The neutral territory of the Caribbean, North and Central America is another key battle ground. The confederation's strong historical and political links with South America could aid Colombia's cause. Support from FIFA members in Panama and Cuba are likely, while the TV-friendly timezones will tempt the USA and Canada. However, bid sources believe CONCACAF won't necessarily vote as a bloc.

One of the key reasons for this is Australia's strong relationship with Canada and the USA, in particular with women's football. The W-League and the NASL have a strategic alliance while the Matildas are regular invitees at USA's Tournament of Nations competition. Australian Moya Dodd, a former FFA director and ex-FIFA Council member, was the chair of the taskforce for the 2015 Women's World Cup hosted by Canada. Those links are why the trans-Tasman bid is confident it can break up votes from CONCACAF.
Predicted votes in favour: 2/5

CONMEBOL, South America
South America made its position clear with an angry letter to FIFA condemning the low evaluation of Colombia's bid, seeking to discredit the organisation's technical committee. It was a puzzling strategy, given the potential for alienating FIFA's allies but could garner support from opponents of the governing body, namely UEFA. What is certain is it presented unanimous support for Colombia before Friday's vote.
Predicted votes in favour: 0/4

OFC, Oceania
The smallest confederation was the first to back Australia and New Zealand's bid. That is of no surprise considering New Zealand is a member of the OFC. NZ Football president Johanna Wood is also a FIFA Council member but is ineligible to vote.
Predicted votes in favour: 2/2

Final result: This prediction delivers a win for Australia and New Zealand by 22 votes to 13 over Colombia.

FIFA 2023 Women's World Cup vote to go down to the wire - sources


Australia and New Zealand's hopes of hosting their first ever senior World Cup -- men's or women's -- appear to be in the hands of Africa's voting bloc, sources have told ESPN.

The combined Antipodean bid would seem a strong favourite ahead of Colombia, particularly after Japan withdrew less than a week from the vote itself.

But a closer inspection of the voting structure -- either bid needs at least 18 votes out of the 35 on offer to win -- suggests the final decision will go down to the wire on Thursday night. As many as 12 votes are still being fought over, an unusually high number so close to the deadline.

Sources close to the process have told ESPN that the final vote "will be much closer than people think and could easily go either way."

"It's the closest bidding for a major tournament I can remember, probably since Germany won the 2006 Men's World Cup bid [where they edged out South Africa]," a source added. "The next 24 hours will be pivotal."

Sources have told ESPN that the decisive battleground for victory will be the votes held by the FIFA Council's seven African representatives and North America's five representatives.

CAF's (Africa) representatives may yet vote as a bloc, or could also split their votes across both sides -- and it is thought they may not decide until the hours before the vote takes place.

Indeed, there are not many obvious reasons for the Africans to vote in favour of Colombia or Australia-New Zealand, given the limited political, cultural and commercial ties.

Colombia's FIFA Council member Ramon Jesurun is excluded from the vote but he will have undoubtedly used his position to remind his fellow council representatives from Africa of the need to help the developing world, not least in the women's game.

Still, Australia's bid has been around for longer (New Zealand were added to the bid in recent months), and the arrival of Football Federation Australia chief executive James Johnson -- who has only been in the chair six months -- has enabled the bid to tap his global contact list.

As the ex-Head of Professional Football at FIFA, it is Johnson's presence that has accelerated Australia's prospects of victory, and seen Australia quietly manage the menagerie of Asian football politics.

It is how they were able to outlast Japan, whose unconvincing bid seemed more about riding on the zeitgeist of Japan's major event spree -- following the 2019 World Cup and the now-delayed 2020 Olympics -- than it did about advancing women's football.

In Australia, the Japanese withdrawal was seen as a tipping point that assured victory, but that's far too simplistic. Having Asia's total support merely gets Australia-New Zealand the backing of their respective confederations, worth a total of nine votes.

And if their bid does not secure a majority of African votes, the possibility of victory would seem remote.

The bulk of UEFA's nine votes are expected to go Colombia's way, with the exception of England. Barring a last second chance of heart, relations between football's dominant football continents are projected to remain as fraternal as ever.

But if Africa is the true unknown, the volatile relationship between CONCACAF (North America) and CONMEBOL (South America) presents Colombia's biggest risk.

Believing they had the majority of UEFA tied up, added to CONMEBOL's four eligible votes, the Colombian bid team internally predicted that securing CONCACAF's five available votes put them in pole position to claim victory.

But Johnson's long-standing relationship with ex-US Soccer boss Sunil Galati and close ties with CONCACAF president Victor Montagliani has broken Colombia's dream of a clean sweep. If Australia can acquire any other votes from CONCACAF, it could mark an unexpected blow.

Finally, there is FIFA President Gianni Infantino. The eternal statesman, Infantino is torn over his stated desire to grow women's football in Latin America and to reward Australia's bid, which secured a much higher score (4.1 to 2.8) during the evaluation process.

As much as Infantino would love to transform Latin America's male-dominated football landscape in his crusade for gender equality, it will be extremely difficult to vote against the recommendations from FIFA's own technical report.

But just like many others heading to the vote, he may not decide until the final hour. In a race this close, every vote counts.

ESPN Voting Analysis:
AFC (Asia) - 7 votes for Australia/NZ
OFC (Oceania) - 2 votes for Australia/NZ
UEFA (Europe) - 8 votes for Colombia, 1 vote for Australia/NZ
CONCACAF (North America) - 5 votes undecided
CONMEBOL (South America) - 4 votes for Colombia
CAF (Africa) - 7 votes undecided
Gianni Infantino - 1 vote for Australia

Totals:
Australia/NZ - 11 votes
Colombia - 12 votes
Undecided - 12 votes