That's a graph of how fatal Covid is once someone has caught it (Covid weekly deaths / Total Covid deaths as a percentage).
The point of a lockdown is to stop Covid spreading in the first place - obviously it doesn't make a difference to how fatal it is once someone has caught it*


* other than the case where hospitals overflow and cannot treat all patients. In that case the fatality rate will go up.

Medical staff require face masks, not just in isolation, but as part of a suite of protective equipment and protocols. Remember, they are literally handling people with the virus

For customer facing staff it comes back to OH&S from both a staff point of view (I remember reading on the ABC feed a hairdresser uncomfortable with the mask laws going) and from an employer point of view (protecting investment)

For every other situation face masks should be optional. Thats not to say people shouldnt wear masks or shouldnt be encouraged to during outbreaks. Or that we can't just get some voluntary consensus like everybody wears one when using public transport. But they should be nothing more than a recommendation

The two points of our strategy the WHO praised was quarantine and compliance. Both have been critical in reducing potential numbers and keeping whatever spillages we have at a minimal (the Sydney outbreak being the latest in many examples over the last 10 months)

A third point I will add to that is simplicity which is the KISS principle. Quarantine is enforced with minimal to no effort on your behalf. Isolation is also regulated. Markers in supermarkets are also automatic. So effectively you have a system that drives the virus down and keeps it in check with minimal onus on people. Every language barrier, every mental health issue, every age group or social barriers, even dickheads who do the wrong thing. Something you can also put on a poster and anybody can understand - keep your distance / wash your hands. Thats it. If you want to go above the minimal recommendations like wearing a mask everywhere or voluntary isolation (which I recall you and your family are practicing) then thats fine

What you dont want is a system too complicated with too many rules and too many exceptions. Can I do this or can I do that? You also dont want a system where the success is driven by people choosing to do the right thing like if success in America did depend on everybody choosing to wear a mask

Australia simply needs uniform basic rules around quarantine, isolation regulation, social distancing markers for all public places, and upper threshold limits on numbers (which will be publicly regulated anyway unless somebody wanted to play a game on indoor soccer with 40,000 people watching in their loungeroom). Minimal dependence / burdan on the average Joe and translated for every social barrier. Everything else can be managed through contact tracing. And I think you'll find to date it has worked

Why did someone have to start him up again?  Looking at you Sydney!

This thread needed a bit of life in it anyway. It was getting awfully quiet with nobody to argue with.

All good. Northern Beaches cluster of 17 and counting.

A perfect example of people panicking when they dont have all the information

The thing to remember about the Coronavirus is it has a period of invisibility. This was known from the start. When you find one case it has usually passed through a few generations and can be a bit wide spread. The people announced with the case today didnt catch it today and there will be more uncovered. But what you have to remember is starting today:
1/ People are on high alert
2/ They have already been social distancing by habit which is why we are seeing 12 cases a day instead of 120
3/ Strategic people are being isolated due to a skilled contact tracing team

If I had to guess I'd say due to population this will get to between 75 and 125 total cases at a maximum compared to Adelaides which was about 35 to 50 (I think)

Was watching the news last night and one bloke was saying he was in line for more than 2 hours and has to come back today because they couldn't get to him.

It's happened more than once.

What I don't understand about this is why don't they send a hundred testers (or more) to these hotspots?  Surely you don't want people not turning up because they couldn't be arsed waiting for hours and hours.

yep infections will always rise in the main city like Sydney Melb etc....
Now up to 28 northern beachs + 1 in Cronulla.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-sydney-remains-on-high-alert-after-northern-beaches-covid-19-cluster-grows-to-17-20201217-p56okd.html

These outbreaks are always going to occur from time to time, its no panic stations but management.
I expect most of us have changed our daily ways of pre covid now its all about doing the right thing protecting yourself and those around you.
Its the exceptions that will keep causing these outbreaks, as long as we nip on the bud pronto we can carry on living way better than many parts of the world.

Well put.

Problem as I see it is over the last few months people have largely stopped adhering to covid-safe guidelines ie social distancing etc. I think there is a much bigger opportunity for it to spread than say in July with the last equivalent outbreak.

Big big test for contact tracing over the next week. 

Was in Sydney 3 weeks ago and it's on a different planet to what it's like in Melbourne. It was like covid had never existed in Sydney,  much different in Melbourne and then in geelong people are even more cautious then Melbourne. I hope they get it under control ASAP, but the talk going around,  makes it sound pretty concerning. 

is is the same strain of covid in sydney ?

only uk has two but vaccine is for the first version only

50 days with zero community transmission in Victoria.

Lol

40 countries have banned travel from UK (shame the west didnt do this with China back in the day)
UK govt strategy holed below the water line, at some time they will have to change tack as the new strain not looking good, the barrington declaration option should have been used at the start, we wait for the picture of the  dying lying on hospital trolleys untreated

https://emanuelkarlsten.se/number-of-deaths-in-sweden-during-the-pandemic-compared-to-previous-years-mortality/

The reason more people haven’t died in total, despite this deadly disease, is complicated. One could potentially see it as those who otherwise would have died of the flu, now died with Covid. 

Ireland should have blocked the UK from coming there 8.5 months ago, or better yet, 8.5 centuries ago.

The most important thing for a virus outbreak is containment

I cant tell you how pathetic / ridiculous / selfish / hypocritical (etc...) it was to see airports and roadways flooded with people trying to get out of the Sydney red zone when the outbreak began

These are people who would have been the first to criticise China for not containing the virus. And the first thing they do after identifying they could have been exposed to the virus is flock en mass to other regions. Victoria, after everything they have been through, already have their first NSW case (that they know of)

If Australia didn't have good systems in place we'd be under the same viral load as the other countries. But even then they are only so effective

Now that Australia seems to have quarantine under control (at least identified the weaknesses) they need to seriously start looking at containment measures. And I dont simply mean pressing the "close borders" button. Every single town in Australia should be zoned into regions of essential services (such as LGA) and nobody should be able to exit a region that has an outbreak without a test and permit

Could have fooled me like covid never existed in Sydney but I understand your POV considering where your from, we've been fortunate never getting near the hardships Melb had to go through but we sure are not living the way you saw it, I suppose coming from your experience as mentioned we actually could/can get on with life but carefully barring the idiot exceptions that has occured few days ago.

Bluebird agreed, by the way I don't blame any border being closed etc heck I would do the same if in the position BUT our so called one eyed State leaders and the Feds need to agree lets move together as one and impose same same rules and clamp down harder onevery OS arrivals/air line crews etcetc and those sneaky Gov excemptions like diplomats etc that they HAVE to be in isolation upon a test and monitered 24/7 for the period of time full stop !
Any who abuse this are fined, not that pissy $1k BUT $5k !
Set the standards damn it to the levels people will have to take notice.

-PB

real shame, hope the epl doesn't get shutdown, wrong train of thought I know.

Agree with Bluebirds sentiment but at the same time, we have some great testing numbers. 38k and 44k for the last two days.

This is bullshit. There is NO evidence that the vaccine won't work with the new strain in the UK. 

really

Yes, really:

Will the variant render the new vaccines ineffective?

No. Most experts doubt that it will have any great impact on vaccines, although it’s not yet possible to rule out any effect.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has authorized two vaccines, one from Moderna and the other from Pfizer and BioNTech. Both vaccines create immunity to the coronavirus by teaching our immune systems to make antibodies to a protein that sits on the surface of the virus, called spike. The spike protein latches onto cells and opens a passageway inside. Antibodies produced in response to the vaccines stick to the tip of the spike. The result: The viruses can’t get inside.

It is conceivable that a mutation to a coronavirus could change the shape of its spike proteins, making it harder for the antibodies to gain a tight grip on them. And B.1.1.7’s mutations include eight in the spike gene. But our immune systems can produce a range of antibodies against a single viral protein, making it less likely that viruses can easily escape their attack. Right now, experts don’t think that the variant will be able to evade vaccines. To confirm that, researchers at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research are analyzing the changes to the structure of its spike protein.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/21/health/new-covid-strain-uk.html

Why I'm the fuck aren't flight crews meant to be tested or quarintined ffs

Cos apparently they aren't in the country for long.  Stupid very stupid

On other news.  Old mate pete Evans facey has been deleted 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/24/people-have-had-covid-could-just-vulnerable-new-south-african/

People who have had Covid could be just as vulnerable to new South African variant

Nervtag chairman says mutations in virus could dull effectiveness of antibodies people had built up from previous infections

`---------------
if the uk just followed the great barrington declaration london would get immunity within 20 days with no more friggin mutations
you need to get immunity in the herd before next mutation, lockdowns just extend the pandemic and allow mutations meaning you are back to square one

Billions of masks are thrown away during the coronavirus pandemic – where do they end up? - ABC News

I thought this was just me but I can't walk down a single street in regional Victoria without seeing at least one discarded face mask. Nearly 60 days without a case and we still have rules "just in case" even though NSW have proven there is enough time to get an outbreak under control with reactive, localised, point in time measures

It has long been known the primary purpose for face masks is to stop somebody with the virus from spreading it. In instances of large outbreaks, particularly overseas, it really is a case of throwing a mask on everybody and assuming everybody has the virus. Better than nothing

But Australia simply does not have the viral activity to justify widespread day to day use unless there is a specific region bringing an active outbreak under control