We in 2007 after the heroics of 2006 got knocked out at the 1/4s stage of Asian cup under Graham Arnold.
We in 2023 after heroics of 2022 got knocked out at the 1/4s stage of Asian cup under Graham Arnold.

No we have not changed, except maybe we (Aussies) underestimate Asian opposition especially at their home grounds.

The other thing around the time of 2008-2012 a certain Pep Guardiola & Barcelona led by Xavi, Inesita & Messi changed football forever with possession football which relied on high technical skill & a great first touch, he took this to Man City, to combat this some coaches ala Jurgen Klopp worked on counter attacking with midfielders that ran their guts out but also highly proficient in their technical ability & first touch to get ball at speed to a trio of brilliant attacking players, both these styles & the other styles that followed required defenders, workaholic midfielders & naturally your attacking players all your players to be technically good with the ball at their feet, something the British & Australians were not their strong points, however England with all the foreign coaches coaching the top 6 clubs, we see the English developing, but they came from a fairly high base.
Other countries like Scotland & Australia, coming from a far lower base has struggled.

Our depth now is, we have a lot more players who have a better technique than days gone by, but so has the other countries.
I give you England for example, have you seen so many players that play such exciting play like Grealish, Foden, Saka, Buckingham, Palmer Kane, Stering, Maddison & it goes on & on.

Thanks Grazor as always you bring some interesting reading.
Think I triggered this :) maybe not entirely but obviously due to the discussions since our Olympic fail - more so in this day and age.
Now I'm nowhere like your good self and some others reviewing history stats and data but a mier invested passionate active football player/father of 2 Snr players/a armchair critic on the sidelines and couch/attend many many games and abroad the last too many years compared to some here age wise.
TBH IMO all I keep reading is excuse's the last number of posts and next new wonder/s for 20yrs, excuse me for being harsh impatient and blunt.
Its frustrating.
Hardly expected us to make it way back in the day (Oly quali) much as well BUT today ? yes I do, why ?
Professionalism last 20yrs And many have talked the kids UP. Sure some better players were missing and low and behold Vidmar some say as well.
Now putting aside our pin up outlier HK as mentioned in the other thread lets not forget the pre and post GG was still semi Pro, you know the terrible ethnic run NSL so I think alot more kudos needs to be put towards all those players young and old bloomers making it pretty OK abroad way back in the day.
In fact one who is always never mentioned much at all is Craig Johnston (another "outlier" you could pair with HK) ! the winningest Aussie player abroad ever ! 270 games in the top flight and Cups and medals no one will ever match.
In fact I'm tickled pink many made it to pretty good league levels when I consider it spread across EPL/Div1/SerieA/B/Bundas etc......

and here we are, reading how well some have done the last 10/20yrs and the promise coming/ahead.
I sure as well hope so and will watch with baited breath.
Hardly 1 aussie player making massive headlines in a top flight league but for the good signings of Kuol + whoever else.
Irakunda talked up way too much - kudos in our league but too much chicken before the egg prove yourself abroad one day like I await Kuol.
The standout young fella imo right now the last year or so is Bos despite being played out of position at NT.
The other obvious stand out is eenie meenie minee moe Volpato - at least he's been in a big Club for a little, got some game time and looked ok and shows he's a cut above quite a few mentioned.

As for our  coaching standards nowadays, you can drill drill drill all the methods you can muster and see
technical skills,
improved movement off the ball, particularly in possession,
improved game sense,
improved ability to play possession football as a team unit. 
This is from having 10 years of coaching similar to what they would receive in Netherland, France or Spain. 

But where is the competition week in week out with so few Pro Clubs, 35/40games per season, competition for spots, competition that you lose your relegated.
Where are they tested - abroad and in Tournaments, thats the baptism of fire as recently accurred.
Sorry we're in a CUSHY BUBBLE, watching our Snrs shows were a yard behind forever and a day, are the young Gen faster/fitter and tested for all the skill/game sense/movement/and hang onto possession means jack shit if your a yard behind when pressed or counter attacking and importantly SCORE finish in BIG games.

Look forward to the banter :)

Yep this is pretty good, good stuff Grazorblade.

Each player has a different path to build their own careers so will peak early others will peak later.

I do feel Kewell and Viduka coming through at the same time feels unique because we rarely developed world class talent before them let alone after them too.

We haven’t been a country that’s known to develop world class talent unless they are an outlier but overall we always developed good players and therefore punched our weight.

the common theme with the newer generations is that they get to Europe get their chance then kind of Stagnant and don't continue to progress..

Maty is the only one who really kept pushing himself all the way to the top. A lot of the other boys get stuck in CHP(Luongo) or Buli2(Borello) although Mass may change that - both were destined for EPL/Bundesliga.

It makes me question what sort of support system is available for these guys away from the game? Coming into socceroos camp can be a godsend for some of these players to refresh and refocus themselves but many just don't push on.

Maybe we just need to stop picking kids who are still settling at their club? I'm not sure. 

Some of the older gen would reject call ups for meaningless friendlies didn't they? is that part of the reason?

This is what we need to fix.

All I can say Grazor is "Wow"  Fantastic write up and kudos to you for doing the research and articulating it all so clearly.

I am not sure I agree with your definition of "breakthrough season" or your definition of dominating Aleague or NSL (well for strikers it is an obvious result but stats dont always tell the tale of the tape for mids and defenders in my opinion) anyway, just wanted to say well done. I dont share your optimism about the improving technical attributes of our playing stock (nor do I have a clear path towards fixing it). Hyping up young players has been going on since the first caveman kicked an inflated pig bladder at a set of goalsposts and is not a uniquely Australian Soccer thing... All around the world there are these sort of discussions going ... long may it continue.

Zelic "broke through" after the Olympic tournament in 1992 and then played in the UEFA cup final in 1996.

Trust Decentric to imply that Okon, Zelic and Grella were sort of failures.

I agree, really the only 2 Aussie footballers who could be defined as world class are Kewell & Viduka. Even then they never reached their potential.

I dont disagree with you Robbo but I think Bosnich is often hard done by by history...  

We in 2007 after the heroics of 2006 got knocked out at the 1/4s stage of Asian cup under Graham Arnold.
We in 2023 after heroics of 2022 got knocked out at the 1/4s stage of Asian cup under Graham Arnold.

No we have not changed, except maybe we (Aussies) underestimate Asian opposition especially at their home grounds.

the common theme with the newer generations is that they get to Europe get their chance then kind of Stagnant and don't continue to progress..

Maty is the only one who really kept pushing himself all the way to the top. A lot of the other boys get stuck in CHP(Luongo) or Buli2(Borello) although Mass may change that - both were destined for EPL/Bundesliga.

It makes me question what sort of support system is available for these guys away from the game? Coming into socceroos camp can be a godsend for some of these players to refresh and refocus themselves but many just don't push on.

Maybe we just need to stop picking kids who are still settling at their club? I'm not sure. 

Some of the older gen would reject call ups for meaningless friendlies didn't they? is that part of the reason?

This is what we need to fix.

I used a hard cutoff for a break through season. According to his wiki page, Zelic had 19 games in 92/93, same as chris herds peak which i also wouldnt count as breaking through. The season after he had 18, season after 4, then 4 again and so on until he had a season with 33 games which i count as his breakthrough season.

It's true that injuries and form are very different reasons for a lack of game time. But in the only objective thing to do is count runs on the board

I dont disagree with you Robbo but I think Bosnich is often hard done by by history...  

Agree with this, Bosnich was a world class keeper at his peak. Unfortunately that peak was short due to injuries and other "concerns".

Yeah, stats, stats... I took "breakthrough" to mean that after the Olympic tournament in 1992 Eddie Thompson was fielding so many offers for Zelic from big European clubs that he was playing them off against each other.

As much as I agree with you on that, I don't think they're comparable.

In 2023, we topped our group, and lost to a nation who is ranked higher/equal to us in extra time.
In 2007 it was essentially the same deal for the quarter final (although noting we defeated Japan at the World Cup a year earlier), but more importantly, we put ourselves in that position by not winning our group that we should have (which admittedly is because we lost to the team that had the fairytale run to the trophy).

Us getting knocked out in 2007, personally, is a lot more of an under achievement than getting knocked out in 2023 was.


If you want to talk real under achievements, 2019 is the one. Failed to top the group, got dragged to penalties in the round of 16, and then knocked out in the quarters to a team who, despite now becoming double Asian Champions, was the worst team at a home World Cup in between those two Asian Cup triumphs.

Someone mentioned how footballs changed to be more technical thats true

The second teir has also become more professional. Look at our nearest rivals. Saudi up to 32 pro teams across 2 divisions, south kore now up to 2 pro and 2 semi pro divisions, america might have a disconnected pyramid but they now have a bunch of levels below the mls. 

As excited as i am about a nst, it is still just a step towards catching up with rivals who have been improving at a faster rate than us. Even those who hate the a league should at least hope it sticks around until we get a third division. I dont ever want to go back to a single division again

Yeah i concede the point about the metric of break through. Tricky part is you have to commit to a methodology but the further u go back the harder it is to get stats. Bresciano has assist stats in the nsl but he is the earliest player i can find even that for. I agree that it makes it hard to evaluate defenders since i only have goals and games played for older players.

Having said that, every defender that has made it seems to anyway be in category 1 or category 3

These days we collect an incredible amount of stats on passes, types of passes, xg, types of defensive actions and the ai algorithms are getting smarter. If you pay for the ones coach access you can get really good predictions if which players will start in higher leagues. Fotmob is free but is already pretty decent. If your score is 7.2 or higher you probably lose around 0.5 on your average when going to the spl, championship, buli 2, eredivisie or jupiler league but 6.7 is high enough to get decent game time and build from there. So i feel i can predict pretty well who will thrive in their first year overseas these days providing they dont aim too high too early. But sadly we dont have that data 

Also i use a hard cutoff for a break through season and a 2nd teir league. In reality more games is better, younger is better and a higher standard is better. A player getting 25 games for a bottom placed spl side in the season they turn 24 makes the cutoff as does a player who plays 38 games for a upper mid table eredivise side at 21. But the latter will likely have a much better career. Having said that, historically both players are probably going to be good enough to get at least some roos games and make an impact

Agree with your take in 2019, although it was actually worse than you say because in the quarters we lost to UAE, not Qatar.

Far out, I told my wife not to cancel my eye appointment

pffffft typical Australian referee..... lol

I started typing a response to your comment about using modern stats and analysis to acurately predict a players development into higher leagues, remembered Dylan, got sad and then just left it.... fact is, All the numbers in the world can crunch in anyway .... mental and physical health is a roll of the dice. 

Stop dropping truth bombs.... :P  

I really want to develop another kewell or viduka. We might have an outlier player in circati tho. Defenders dont thrill fans the way attackers do but still something to be excited about

We all hope someone comes through that will be world class and play at the highest level, for that to happen everything has to fall into place for Kewell and Viduka almost everything went their way until they reach their mid 20s when injuries started to kick in.

Its alot easier for big countries who have large talent pools to have world class players simply with larger odds therefore the more talent that is developed eventually one will be world class, eg. Brazil have one of the biggest talent pools in world football and for every Neymar, vinicius jr, there will be someone playing in a lower tier like Doka playing for the Mariners in fact it will be interesting to see how many Brazilian players that are out there around the world and what level they are playing.

For smaller countries you can be lucky with 1 or 2 but I wont bet they could continue to develop world class players simply because a smaller player pool.

Of course you can look after your backyard as much as you can, but even with that I dont think its enough to develop world class players in any sport for that matter simply because the odds are so small with a small talent pool to increase the odds increasing the talent pool and the more you export then the chances will increase.

it's just for static objects, like words and goal lines, I swear!

I remember eeading an analysis of this that top countries has 1000s of fulltime players (3-5k for world cup winners) and we had a couple of hundred at the time including all players overseas

Yeah though should average out over a generation tho. Dyĺans luck was brutal rip.

If you have more counter examples that met the criteria i laid out id be curious so i can add to the database

Injuries and mental health can stop a player and some late bloomers excede all expectations. Also the best ai available to pro teams isnt available to the public u can ask some scouts for individual reports on players. However public ai is also getting better. Sofascore and fotmob are pretty good predictors compared to whoscored and sqwawka on who will make a step up. Which aussie playee has a fotmob score of 7.2 or higher and not been able to get decent game time, injuries permitting, at the next level up? (Spl, superleague, norway, belgium, buli 2 etc) jelacic is the only example im aware of so thats a pretty good predictor! Ai is getting smarter and put us all out if a job soon :D