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grazorblade
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+x+x+x+x+xAll I can say Grazor is "Wow" Fantastic write up and kudos to you for doing the research and articulating it all so clearly. I am not sure I agree with your definition of "breakthrough season" or your definition of dominating Aleague or NSL (well for strikers it is an obvious result but stats dont always tell the tale of the tape for mids and defenders in my opinion) anyway, just wanted to say well done. I dont share your optimism about the improving technical attributes of our playing stock (nor do I have a clear path towards fixing it). Hyping up young players has been going on since the first caveman kicked an inflated pig bladder at a set of goalsposts and is not a uniquely Australian Soccer thing... All around the world there are these sort of discussions going ... long may it continue. Yeah i concede the point about the metric of break through. Tricky part is you have to commit to a methodology but the further u go back the harder it is to get stats. Bresciano has assist stats in the nsl but he is the earliest player i can find even that for. I agree that it makes it hard to evaluate defenders since i only have goals and games played for older players. Having said that, every defender that has made it seems to anyway be in category 1 or category 3 These days we collect an incredible amount of stats on passes, types of passes, xg, types of defensive actions and the ai algorithms are getting smarter. If you pay for the ones coach access you can get really good predictions if which players will start in higher leagues. Fotmob is free but is already pretty decent. If your score is 7.2 or higher you probably lose around 0.5 on your average when going to the spl, championship, buli 2, eredivisie or jupiler league but 6.7 is high enough to get decent game time and build from there. So i feel i can predict pretty well who will thrive in their first year overseas these days providing they dont aim too high too early. But sadly we dont have that data Also i use a hard cutoff for a break through season and a 2nd teir league. In reality more games is better, younger is better and a higher standard is better. A player getting 25 games for a bottom placed spl side in the season they turn 24 makes the cutoff as does a player who plays 38 games for a upper mid table eredivise side at 21. But the latter will likely have a much better career. Having said that, historically both players are probably going to be good enough to get at least some roos games and make an impact I started typing a response to your comment about using modern stats and analysis to acurately predict a players development into higher leagues, remembered Dylan, got sad and then just left it.... fact is, All the numbers in the world can crunch in anyway .... mental and physical health is a roll of the dice. Yeah though should average out over a generation tho. Dyĺans luck was brutal rip. If you have more counter examples that met the criteria i laid out id be curious so i can add to the database Injuries and mental health can stop a player and some late bloomers excede all expectations. Also the best ai available to pro teams isnt available to the public u can ask some scouts for individual reports on players. However public ai is also getting better. Sofascore and fotmob are pretty good predictors compared to whoscored and sqwawka on who will make a step up. Which aussie playee has a fotmob score of 7.2 or higher and not been able to get decent game time, injuries permitting, at the next level up? (Spl, superleague, norway, belgium, buli 2 etc) jelacic is the only example im aware of so thats a pretty good predictor! Ai is getting smarter and put us all out if a job soon :D When AI becomes cognoscente enough to know when a player is sad, or misses his mum's cooking, or just cant seem to make it through the day without wincing in pain then perhaps... Some players respnd well to an authroatarian manager, others need to be praised and coddled.... As much as sports science and psychology has come along in massive leaps and bounds we are still talking about, often, immature human beings with all the flaws and faults that entails. Its people not robots that currently play the game, maybe one day :) until then, there is a lot data analytics can but guesstimate. I dont know any players fotmob score mate, never have and probably never will need it... Have to see a player with my own eyes to tell you what I think of him or her... I dunno have u talked to chat gtp about missing your mum? Most clubs use statisticians as first observations even from trained coaches can be wildly off, overemphasizing the noticeable mistakes and underemphasizing small details tough to pick up on first watch. Usually to analyze a player coaches use multiple watches of a game along with stats to compliment day ro day interactions with them on the training pitch
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grazorblade
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+x+x+x+x+xYep this is pretty good, good stuff Grazorblade. Each player has a different path to build their own careers so will peak early others will peak later. I do feel Kewell and Viduka coming through at the same time feels unique because we rarely developed world class talent before them let alone after them too. We haven’t been a country that’s known to develop world class talent unless they are an outlier but overall we always developed good players and therefore punched our weight. I really want to develop another kewell or viduka. We might have an outlier player in circati tho. Defenders dont thrill fans the way attackers do but still something to be excited about We all hope someone comes through that will be world class and play at the highest level, for that to happen everything has to fall into place for Kewell and Viduka almost everything went their way until they reach their mid 20s when injuries started to kick in. Its alot easier for big countries who have large talent pools to have world class players simply with larger odds therefore the more talent that is developed eventually one will be world class, eg. Brazil have one of the biggest talent pools in world football and for every Neymar, vinicius jr, there will be someone playing in a lower tier like Doka playing for the Mariners in fact it will be interesting to see how many Brazilian players that are out there around the world and what level they are playing. For smaller countries you can be lucky with 1 or 2 but I wont bet they could continue to develop world class players simply because a smaller player pool. Of course you can look after your backyard as much as you can, but even with that I dont think its enough to develop world class players in any sport for that matter simply because the odds are so small with a small talent pool to increase the odds increasing the talent pool and the more you export then the chances will increase. I remember eeading an analysis of this that top countries has 1000s of fulltime players (3-5k for world cup winners) and we had a couple of hundred at the time including all players overseas I think the large player pool is a telling factor, I think they export the most players in the world or somewhere close to this. Pim verbeek and schwarzer both highlighted this as key. Our talent pool was so small that it can be completely derailed by the occasional injury or a player not living up to potential. The talent pool has expanded slightly but not much. Nst could double the number of both domestic and abroad players
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Quicky
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+x+x+x+x+xYep this is pretty good, good stuff Grazorblade. Each player has a different path to build their own careers so will peak early others will peak later. I do feel Kewell and Viduka coming through at the same time feels unique because we rarely developed world class talent before them let alone after them too. We haven’t been a country that’s known to develop world class talent unless they are an outlier but overall we always developed good players and therefore punched our weight. I agree, really the only 2 Aussie footballers who could be defined as world class are Kewell & Viduka. Even then they never reached their potential. I dont disagree with you Robbo but I think Bosnich is often hard done by by history... I'm talking outfield players. Bonsnich was great until GKs were required to also be good with their feet. Same old argument though mate... My opinion is that you have to rate a player based on the era he was playing... in the 90s NO keeper was good with their feet :) Agree wholeheartedly with this. It's not fair to diminish the careers of players based on todays standards and trends.
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Quicky
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Luke Wilkshire would fit the first category. Broke through early at Bristol in league one. Played a lot for them. Went on to play a lot in the Eredivisie and in Russia. Also had 20 odd games in the EPL. Very strong NT career.
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Quicky
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Kevin Muscat was in the Championship pretty early. After about 4 domestic seasons. Not sure when he became a starter. Strong career at Wolves, Crystal Palace and later Milwall at that level, with Rangers in the SPL in between. Would fit category 1 or 3.
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Quicky
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Brainstorming .... I wonder where do Lazaridis, Popovic, Tiatto, Filan, Kennedy, Behich fit? Going back further Slater, Arnold, Foster.
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grazorblade
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+xLuke Wilkshire would fit the first category. Broke through early at Bristol in league one. Played a lot for them. Went on to play a lot in the Eredivisie and in Russia. Also had 20 odd games in the EPL. Very strong NT career. yeah I didn't count 3rd division (or I would count robertson and a bunch of others). If fc twente are a high enough level i could count him as a late bloomer. It's hard to place him since most late bloomers I put as either big 5 clubs or champions league regulars
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grazorblade
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+xKevin Muscat was in the Championship pretty early. After about 4 domestic seasons. Not sure when he became a starter. Strong career at Wolves, Crystal Palace and later Milwall at that level, with Rangers in the SPL in between. Would fit category 1 or 3. Kevin muscat is a good shout! Just made the english 2nd tier when turning 24. Interesting his peak wasn't really higher than ruka
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grazorblade
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+xBrainstorming .... I wonder where do Lazaridis, Popovic, Tiatto, Filan, Kennedy, Behich fit? Going back further Slater, Arnold, Foster. popovic is a late bloomer, had one season in the epl with 23 games tiatto is a late bloomer with his first breakthrough season at u27 filan is too far back to get year by year stats Kennedy is in category 1 playing buli 2 regularly at u23 Behich doesn't make the cut in any of the categories since he was u25 when he broke through in europe then never got to a really high level (same with martin boyle) slater was a late bloomer arnold doesn't make the cut in any of the categories Can't tell if foster is a late bloomer because I can't tell what league he peaked in (did he have a good epl season?) adding some other figures I know I guess I can add Tony vidmar is a late bloomer Aurelio vidmar is a late bloomer Carl veart is too old to get year by year stats on
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grazorblade
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updated the original post
one thing that really stands out is how many nsl era players were late bloomers. It is ok to leave the domestic league late if it takes that long to be ready. Just leave when you are dominating and not before!
I wonder if getting rid of the nsl meant losing some of the collective wisdom of when a player is ready to go, when they are ready to step up and where they should go. We seem to be getting it back though its still frustrating to see the occasional musa toure types leave before getting games
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Bunch of Hacks
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Great write up. Missing a couple.. Skoko was a regular at Hadjuk whilst only 21 I believe. Neil kilkenny played over 20 prem games 1 season whilst only 20. Many others I can't think of yet.
As you allude to the future looks bright for the socceroos playing stocks ... prob the most young guys we've had floating around Europe since after 2005 when the A league brought a lot of them home (and imo hurt our national pool).
Give it 2 or 3 seasons but I think we will be close to fielding a starting 11 that is either in a top 5 league or CL/EL club. Even next season we will be close with ..
Ryan (EL)
Souttar(?) Burgess(top5) Circati(sA)
Atkinson (EL) Irvine (top5) Luongo(Top5) Bos (?)
McGree (?) Yengi (?) Volpato (top5)
Bench.. Rowles (EL), Metcalfe (top5), Robertson(?), Irakunda (?), Toure (?).
I've put a ? next to a few players whose futures are uncertain or may get a move up or get loaned out.
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grazorblade
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+xGreat write up. Missing a couple.. Skoko was a regular at Hadjuk whilst only 21 I believe. Neil kilkenny played over 20 prem games 1 season whilst only 20. Many others I can't think of yet. As you allude to the future looks bright for the socceroos playing stocks ... prob the most young guys we've had floating around Europe since after 2005 when the A league brought a lot of them home (and imo hurt our national pool). Give it 2 or 3 seasons but I think we will be close to fielding a starting 11 that is either in a top 5 league or CL/EL club. Even next season we will be close with .. Ryan (EL) Souttar(?) Burgess(top5) Circati(sA) Atkinson (EL) Irvine (top5) Luongo(Top5) Bos (?) McGree (?) Yengi (?) Volpato (top5) Bench.. Rowles (EL), Metcalfe (top5), Robertson(?), Irakunda (?), Toure (?). I've put a ? next to a few players whose futures are uncertain or may get a move up or get loaned out. Kilkenny's career was bizarre! 25 games for an epl club at u21 then never did much after that I'll add skoko too. I wonder if the gg had many players that got early euro football and didn't kick on. There were a few in the a league era. Hard to tell whether it is more or less than expected
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Quicky
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+x+xLuke Wilkshire would fit the first category. Broke through early at Bristol in league one. Played a lot for them. Went on to play a lot in the Eredivisie and in Russia. Also had 20 odd games in the EPL. Very strong NT career. yeah I didn't count 3rd division (or I would count robertson and a bunch of others). If fc twente are a high enough level i could count him as a late bloomer. It's hard to place him since most late bloomers I put as either big 5 clubs or champions league regulars That shows there are other pathways. Wilkshire had an excellent NT career. What Wilkshire got was lots of games early. Probably at an equal or better level than the A-League.
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Quicky
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Milligan would be an interesting one to analyse. His best club football was in Australia. Knocked around second tier or underwhelming Asian clubs + SPL in between. But a fantastic contributor to the NT. Probably an outlier with guys like Goodwin.
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grazorblade
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+x+x+xLuke Wilkshire would fit the first category. Broke through early at Bristol in league one. Played a lot for them. Went on to play a lot in the Eredivisie and in Russia. Also had 20 odd games in the EPL. Very strong NT career. yeah I didn't count 3rd division (or I would count robertson and a bunch of others). If fc twente are a high enough level i could count him as a late bloomer. It's hard to place him since most late bloomers I put as either big 5 clubs or champions league regulars That shows there are other pathways. Wilkshire had an excellent NT career. What Wilkshire got was lots of games early. Probably at an equal or better level than the A-League. indeed there are other paths to do well for the nt with milligan, wilkshire, goodwin and duke doing well for the nt despite never reaching a high club level. My analysis is regarding club success which doesnt always translate to nt success
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Bunch of Hacks
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The funny thing is I'd argue the greatest ever Australian produced player hasn't even been mentioned on here..
Tony Dorigo won league title with Leeds, season after won POTY. Was named in premier league team of the season, won player of the year at 3 other clubs including Aston Villa, Chelsea and Torino.
Started in a World Cup third place placeoff game for England!! Would have been a bona-fide starter for England had he not played at the same time as Stuart Pearce who was close to the best left back in the world during that period.
What a resume!
Could argue Christian Vieri was Australian produced also
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grazorblade
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+xThe funny thing is I'd argue the greatest ever Australian produced player hasn't even been mentioned on here.. Tony Dorigo won league title with Leeds, season after won POTY. Was named in premier league team of the season, won player of the year at 3 other clubs including Aston Villa, Chelsea and Torino. Started in a World Cup third place placeoff game for England!! Would have been a bona-fide starter for England had he not played at the same time as Stuart Pearce who was close to the best left back in the world during that period. What a resume! Could argue Christian Vieri was Australian produced also Crazy we were producing players even back then
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NicCarBel
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+xThe funny thing is I'd argue the greatest ever Australian produced player hasn't even been mentioned on here.. Tony Dorigo won league title with Leeds, season after won POTY. Was named in premier league team of the season, won player of the year at 3 other clubs including Aston Villa, Chelsea and Torino. Started in a World Cup third place placeoff game for England!! Would have been a bona-fide starter for England had he not played at the same time as Stuart Pearce who was close to the best left back in the world during that period. What a resume! Could argue Christian Vieri was Australian produced also Yep, after understanding his history, I would say he was developed here. Didn't move back to Italy until mid/late teens if I recall correctly?
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localstar
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Dorigo was a product of Adelaide City. Moved to Aston Villa as a 15 year old. Then Chelsea, Leeds etc.
Somehow the poms found English nationality for him.
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LFC.
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+xThe funny thing is I'd argue the greatest ever Australian produced player hasn't even been mentioned on here.. Tony Dorigo won league title with Leeds, season after won POTY. Was named in premier league team of the season, won player of the year at 3 other clubs including Aston Villa, Chelsea and Torino. Started in a World Cup third place placeoff game for England!! Would have been a bona-fide starter for England had he not played at the same time as Stuart Pearce who was close to the best left back in the world during that period. What a resume! Could argue Christian Vieri was Australian produced also Me think Johnston is and has the best resume mentioned before. By the way Grazor another piece considering this late bloomer scenario. Let’s not forget it was more challenging travelling and lining things up compared to the modern days. I would think this would askew the assumption so many GG and bit later bloomed as such in good leagues mid twenties. Just a thought crossed my head.
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grazorblade
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+x+xThe funny thing is I'd argue the greatest ever Australian produced player hasn't even been mentioned on here.. Tony Dorigo won league title with Leeds, season after won POTY. Was named in premier league team of the season, won player of the year at 3 other clubs including Aston Villa, Chelsea and Torino. Started in a World Cup third place placeoff game for England!! Would have been a bona-fide starter for England had he not played at the same time as Stuart Pearce who was close to the best left back in the world during that period. What a resume! Could argue Christian Vieri was Australian produced also Me think Johnston is and has the best resume mentioned before. By the way Grazor another piece considering this late bloomer scenario. Let’s not forget it was more challenging travelling and lining things up compared to the modern days. I would think this would askew the assumption so many GG and bit later bloomed as such in good leagues mid twenties. Just a thought crossed my head. Im wondering if it is due to a larger player pool. The gap between the nsl and the epl is roughly similar to the gap today where both have improved by roughly the same amount (i base this on the observation of wingers who get around 10 goals a season when still young having similar careers in both eras) However, we have way more foreign players and less teams these days so a smaller pool at a similar relative level.. So today we have 11 oz clubs with 5 foreign players meaning a minimum of 66 players getting starts each week. 14 clubs with few foreign players means more than double the talent pool at the same relative level. It makes sense to have basically double the number of late bloomers (and to be honest double the amount in every category) Expansion and an nst will hopefully put the playing pool up to yesteryear levels. I wish we went down to 4 foreign players outside the cap. An extra 11 starting spots is as many as 2 extra teams in termd of spots for aussies
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grazorblade
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silly me, metcalf was born 1999 in november and played 31 games last season which puts him in category 1
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johnszasz
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Bump past the spam
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Bunch of Hacks
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+x+xThe funny thing is I'd argue the greatest ever Australian produced player hasn't even been mentioned on here.. Tony Dorigo won league title with Leeds, season after won POTY. Was named in premier league team of the season, won player of the year at 3 other clubs including Aston Villa, Chelsea and Torino. Started in a World Cup third place placeoff game for England!! Would have been a bona-fide starter for England had he not played at the same time as Stuart Pearce who was close to the best left back in the world during that period. What a resume! Could argue Christian Vieri was Australian produced also Me think Johnston is and has the best resume mentioned before. By the way Grazor another piece considering this late bloomer scenario. Let’s not forget it was more challenging travelling and lining things up compared to the modern days. I would think this would askew the assumption so many GG and bit later bloomed as such in good leagues mid twenties. Just a thought crossed my head. Johnston undoubtedly has the best team accolades but has no personal accolades. Also he nominated to play for England but was never picked, only a couple of B internationals. For me the combination of team and personal accolades along with his international exposure puts him ahead in my view. If it wasn't for Stuart Pearce Dorigo would have had over 50 caps for England. I'd probably argue Kewell was a greater player at his peak but never had any real team success (the freak 05 champions league aside where he was brought off injured) and his peak wasn't as long as Dorigo's . Anyway I think the only real world level players we've ever produced are Dorigo, Bosnich, Kewell and Viduka . Johnston, Okon, Zelic Simunic, Scwarzer, Neill and Cahill especially were close.
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patjennings
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+x+x+xThe funny thing is I'd argue the greatest ever Australian produced player hasn't even been mentioned on here.. Tony Dorigo won league title with Leeds, season after won POTY. Was named in premier league team of the season, won player of the year at 3 other clubs including Aston Villa, Chelsea and Torino. Started in a World Cup third place placeoff game for England!! Would have been a bona-fide starter for England had he not played at the same time as Stuart Pearce who was close to the best left back in the world during that period. What a resume! Could argue Christian Vieri was Australian produced also Me think Johnston is and has the best resume mentioned before. By the way Grazor another piece considering this late bloomer scenario. Let’s not forget it was more challenging travelling and lining things up compared to the modern days. I would think this would askew the assumption so many GG and bit later bloomed as such in good leagues mid twenties. Just a thought crossed my head. Johnston undoubtedly has the best team accolades but has no personal accolades. Also he nominated to play for England but was never picked, only a couple of B internationals. For me the combination of team and personal accolades along with his international exposure puts him ahead in my view. If it wasn't for Stuart Pearce Dorigo would have had over 50 caps for England. I'd probably argue Kewell was a greater player at his peak but never had any real team success (the freak 05 champions league aside where he was brought off injured) and his peak wasn't as long as Dorigo's . Anyway I think the only real world level players we've ever produced are Dorigo, Bosnich, Kewell and Viduka . Johnston, Okon, Zelic Simunic, Scwarzer, Neill and Cahill especially were close. I agree with the 4 you mentioned - but I think there is a big gap to the second group - all great professional careers - but that is all - not close to world class
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LFC.
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+x+x+x+xThe funny thing is I'd argue the greatest ever Australian produced player hasn't even been mentioned on here.. Tony Dorigo won league title with Leeds, season after won POTY. Was named in premier league team of the season, won player of the year at 3 other clubs including Aston Villa, Chelsea and Torino. Started in a World Cup third place placeoff game for England!! Would have been a bona-fide starter for England had he not played at the same time as Stuart Pearce who was close to the best left back in the world during that period. What a resume! Could argue Christian Vieri was Australian produced also Me think Johnston is and has the best resume mentioned before. By the way Grazor another piece considering this late bloomer scenario. Let’s not forget it was more challenging travelling and lining things up compared to the modern days. I would think this would askew the assumption so many GG and bit later bloomed as such in good leagues mid twenties. Just a thought crossed my head. Johnston undoubtedly has the best team accolades but has no personal accolades. Also he nominated to play for England but was never picked, only a couple of B internationals. For me the combination of team and personal accolades along with his international exposure puts him ahead in my view. If it wasn't for Stuart Pearce Dorigo would have had over 50 caps for England. I'd probably argue Kewell was a greater player at his peak but never had any real team success (the freak 05 champions league aside where he was brought off injured) and his peak wasn't as long as Dorigo's . Anyway I think the only real world level players we've ever produced are Dorigo, Bosnich, Kewell and Viduka . Johnston, Okon, Zelic Simunic, Scwarzer, Neill and Cahill especially were close. I agree with the 4 you mentioned - but I think there is a big gap to the second group - all great professional careers - but that is all - not close to world class pj and BOH yer agree on the 4 on the 2 accolades mentioned, mind you I'm bit on the fence with Bozza for United was his chance to actually Prove he was world class for all to see than the paltry 23 games. IF he actually have managed holding the GK role for a couple of seasons he could have been a Legend for the game and for us/aussies to talk about more as proven his worth. The 2nd group as having the bigger gap is right and you can add in quite a few more of times having had very good pro careers, it was a great period for us and Aussie football.
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riquelmes_laces
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A wonderkid is a player who performs like he belongs at senior level football at the age of 16.
That is generally my most basic definition.
Late bloomers are an exception to the rule.
However, the real World Class players were performing at a high-level in senior football when they were teenagers.
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jas88
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+xMilligan would be an interesting one to analyse. His best club football was in Australia. Knocked around second tier or underwhelming Asian clubs + SPL in between. But a fantastic contributor to the NT. Probably an outlier with guys like Goodwin. I think Milligan could of played in a top 5 league.. he was one that suffered from Visa issues... just couldn't get enough socceroos game(due to Jedi coming through) to get him a visa to play overseas. Not making the asian cup squad in 2011 really crippled his chances.. he shouldn't of went to China so early. Having european grandparents/parents is huge for young aussie players.
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LFC.
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+xA wonderkid is a player who performs like he belongs at senior level football at the age of 16.
That is generally my most basic definition. Late bloomers are an exception to the rule. However, the real World Class players were performing at a high-level in senior football when they were teenagers. yes bud can't disagree, you see it by their poise on the ball and time and think wow this kid has it ! Its wonderful to see, pity we hardly deliver any them - Dukes was world class here by his poise and finish - HK was a wing speed machine with vision venom. I love reviewing a player list like this and admire so many of these amazing footballers at young ages, some a bit later. https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/101-greatest-football-players-last-25-years-full-list
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