Yep.

If everything comes off I'll be pissssssed.

Fucking fuck, may as well poke my eyeball out with a fucking knob!!!

Put bets on all the stand alones EXCEPT fucking Moenchengladbach, how do I forget them!???

Lille, deadset, to spare our blushes, they better get up, otherwise we dropped a whole heap of cash! Me anyway

(kicks feet in air repeated spastically)

Hit a trifecta at Sale last night. Got $188. Sooo annoyed cos the one that came second was paying $24. If that stayed in front, the tri wouldve been much bigger

Norwich's failure to win cost me 150 :(

Melbourne Cup, then. I'll be posting a wrap-up of my tips soon.
Have picked a winner twice in the last 4 years. My trifecta almost got there last start too (ran first, second, and 4th)!.

What we got guys?

I haven't looked at it much actually!

What time is the race exactly?

3p.m tomorrow

News just come in, Williams ruled out of contention to ride Dunaden.
To be honest, I think that rules it out on a winning chance, disappointing.

Damn.... I'm in class from 2-4 so I wont be able to watch :(. I'll try to sneak out at 3.

Lucas Cranach
At First Sight

Red Cadeaux at juicy odds if it rains in Melbourne

Can't believe no-one has mentioned the winner of the Victoria Derby on the w/e. 'Sangster', there was an omen bet for this forum if I've ever seen one. Was paying $14 for the win.

I mentioned it on the previous page as I got amongst it!

Lucas Cranach a good EW bet on Betfair indeed.

Is Red Cadeaux a slow/wet specialist is he?

Illo and Manighar are my Cup bets.

Nobody tipping them, so I'll happily take the plaudits when they win.

:lol:

Anyone going to do tips for all races tomorrow (at Flemington) I'm prepared to put my faith in them as I have no time to study for with VCE exams coming up

I'll have a look at some expert sources, do some studying, will post it within the hour hopefully.

(Y)

Thanks

I'm going on Illo too.

Sanga's 'Melbourne Cup' Day Picks with expert analysis minus the main race (which I'll leave to you guys and give my picks early tomorrow) :P

Sources
* = Dominic Beirne - Betfair http://promo.betfair.com.au/dominic_beirne/?rfr=5468
* = http://www.toppunter.net/2011/10/31/november-1st-melbourne-cup-preview-2/

Race 1 (10:20AM Emirates Airline Plate (1000 METRES))- My pick is Michael Rodd riding the Mark Kavanagh trained #1. Alezan Thunder @ $6.40 Late mail was aimed at Snitzerland and it ran a photo second. Alezan Thunder placed 3rd

Race 2 (11:00AM TAB Sportsbet Handicap (1700 METRES)) - My pick, again, is #2. Smoulder @ $6.40. I'd be looking for an each way bet here. Craig Newitt rode this horse 2nd, last start, and whether it be a dead or slow track (has won and placed before), it has potential over this distance. 16 starts 4 wins, 3 seconds, 3 thirds. Ran mifield, didn't get a good run or position

Race 3 (11:45AM The Lavazza Long Black (2800 METRES)) - * 12. EXCLUDED @ $5.40 * Ran 2nd

Race 4 (12:30PM Herald Sun Stakes (1400 METRES)) - * #3. LITTLE SURFER GIRL @ $9.80 Ran 2nd* * # 14. Neriani ‘s perfect distance may be 1400m and I fancy she will be ridden a little more quietly today. In a race of solid tempo, expect her to settle 3 pairs back on the rail, her cagey jock Williams saving ground in the big field, then angling wider when it matters (I’m presuming Williams gets his “stay of proceedings” to ride).
A strong late finish can be expected from #2. Divorces, who has outstanding first-up ratings, without winning, in harder races than this.
#6. Zubbaya is an outsider at value, provided you forgive her last start poor performance. She has done this before, put in a bad one then rebounded to win, but it is noticeable that her 3 worst races were at Flemington. *

Race 5 (1:15PM Schweppes Tonic 1000 (1000 METRES)) - My pick here is resounding favourite, and virtually unbackable, #2. Karuta Queen @ $1.62 I gave late mail for African Pulse but didn't end up backing it. Bad choice, It ran first confining Karuta Queen to 2nd.

Race 6 (2:00PM Lexus Hybrid Plate (1400 METRES)) - * Provided the inside is OK and the track is no worse than “Dead 4”, #5. The Fairy’s Kiss@ $3.85 should be supported here. Her last start rating @ Group3, was significant increase on her previous start maiden win. However in her maiden win, she ran extremely fast final sectional time and last start was no fluke.
#2. Combat Kitty @$3.80 will relish her first attempt 1400m, particularly the big Flemington stretches and comes from the in-form Matthew Smith yard, whose profitability for punters is outstanding. Betting horses from this stable shows significant profit each of past 3 years.
If the inside looks “iffy”, level stake the pair. * Winner - Combat Kitty

Race 8 (3:55PM Johnnie Walker Stakes (1800 METRES)) - * #4. LAMASERY @ $5.30 * * #12. Lone Command @ $3.80 reunites the combo Darren Beadman and Team Hawkes and has a lot going for him. He has won 4 / past 8 starts; last start won this distance; was Group2 placed previous start; races on-pace; is well drawn and will park 3rd on rail, behind Voice Commander. Darren will angle higher on the track as they approach the home bend.
Lamasery has the best figures this race, but has suffered health setbacks since 3rd @ Group1 2400m, aborting his Cups aspirations. Realistically, this race should be a pushover for him, but how well is he?
#11. Blackie @ $6 has been woeful past 2 starts in harder company, but is too good to take lightly. Like Lamasery, he will give a big start to Lone Command at the top of the straight. * Winner - Lamasery, again, don't know why I didn't back it

Race 9 (4:35PM MSS Security Sprint (1200 METRES)) - *
Halfway down the long Flemington straight, the IWS computer selections will not be running in the first 10, so hold on to your hats / fascinators, whatever.
#11. Parables @ $6.40 has had no luck in 3 runs this Spring. She has drawn to come down the outside fence, smelling the roses as she goes. I expect her to power home.
#12. Sterling Grove @$12 got too far back on Saturday in the Sallinger; he has an affinity with the Flemington straight, having won twice here.
#20. Spirit Of Boom @ $12 will be midfield, with a wall of horses ahead of him, needing tremendous luck to get through. But with a clear run, he will zoom to the line. *

Race 10 - #8. Studley Park @ $6.40

[size=4]Odds provided are based on latest Betfair market[/size]

Rest of the picks have no source I could find, and thus are my own random selections based on your average betting mans criteria. :d


Edited by sanga1: 1/11/2011 04:04:52 PM

My 2 tips for the cup are: Americain & Glass Harmonium, with my outsider a bit of an omen tip after Tomas Vermaelens recent return to Arsenal: The Verminator

I like Glass Harmonium for a place, and its odds are perfect for combos and multi's.

Love the outsider, I never really thought about it, but that's what must have drawn me to him initially as well :lol:

20 minutes till race 1, I'm backing Alezan Thunder EW on Tote SuperTab.
Should have got on it when Betfair had it at $6.80 most of yesterday, down to $4.60 at NSW now!
Ahwell

Some late mail, Snitzerland giving decent EW odds for Race 1

Woww, what a start!
Deadset photo for Snitzerland there, I backed it EW in the end, $1 & $2
I think she's run 2nd!

Got on it Sanga for the win and it did not! SHIT

SHIT ay!?

Fuuuk, believe it or not, I was tempted, honestly, on going the trifecta on that race and those were my 3 picks!

Bloody hell it's a tough race. The cup I mean.

So many quality horses but it's so hard to pick which one will put in the best run. I'm still liking Mourayan and Lucas Cranach though.

I agree

You musn't have heard the early news though, then Imno!?
Mourayan's been scratched!

Mourayan. Wow. Why is it scratched?

Vintedge in the next race is my tip.

What?!?!?