If these guys can stay fit we are going to have a very entertaining season for sure. They all showed something today.

I hadn't had a chance to see Fabio before today (too hard to go to practice matches with an infant at home), but he really impressed me.

I do want to keep a lid on it a bit though, after the Victory game last season I thought we were going to do quite well. Turned out that Victory were shit and we weren't really any better.

I'll wait til we've played a few more games before I start getting too pumped :D

Anyone watch shootout on foxtel. Wanted to see the flores interview just to see more of his bullshit. Apparently he said he was jealous of united getting a win first up though and victory loosing lol get used it to.

68 points for me, 28th overall and top of the official 442 league!

He sounded exactly like when he was here, he did however manage to be gracious about our club and us fans - but it seriously was the same smoke he blew up our arses during his time at AUFC.

Fun interview with Bruce on the World Game podcast. They even analysed how we played a bit! :shock:

http://www.sbs.com.au/podcasts/Podcasts/the-world-game/episode/236443/The-World-Game-radio-show

getting excited about Friday night after last week.
Hopefully Malik improves over last week, he was very frustrating to watch.
And hopefully they bring on Carrusca earlier.

Recent talk about what attracts a crowd to Hindmarsh got me thinking. Clearly there are the die hards who would turn up to watch Jeronimo take on Bruce in a yoyo challenge, and the band wagon who are influenced by the weather etc. ....yes, I am bored today, but I think:

Hindmarsh crowd = 5500 + 3000 x (W x F x O x S) + X

W=weather (on a scale of 0.5 to 1.5, where 0.5 = shite, 1 = not bad and 1.5 = oh yeah).
F=form (scale from 0.7 to 1.3, where 0.7 =sack Rini, 1=ok, 1.3= Leckie never left)
O=opposition (1.2 for MV, 1.1 for SFC and Roar, other teams =1.0)
S=schedule (1.1 for Friday night, 0.9 for Wednesday night and weekend afternoons)
X= x-factor (a visiting marquee, a final or some dribble Val wrote that may add (or subtract) a few people. ie Del Piero might be worth an extra 2k.

This week sees good form, showers hopefully clearing by 5pm, and not much x-factor.
crowd = 9164

EDIT: glorious Adelaide sunshine has arrived in time for lunch time ticket buying, upgraded weather variable from 0.9 to 1.0.

crowd prediction = 9560


Edited by canonical: 12/10/2012 01:03:14 PM

So rain forcast for friday

oh well at least this year I can pick up my trusty poncho and coffee mug today.

Fkn rain, we need to schedule a few HAL games in the desert, drought will be over! Hope it's not too cold to boot.

Nice work. Maybe I can use the 4 years I spent at uni getting a mathematics degree to good use and try and model this a bit better :p

Basic formula is pretty much right. I'd say the weightings of those factors are the main thing that needs to be tweaked.

I agree with the rough guess of 6,000 rusted on idiots like me (though even I admit to skipping a couple after the Gold Coast game that that was Rini's death knell. I just couldn't take it any more)but that 3,000 interests me.

Given that in general we DO get that 3,000 every week there, how large a pool of people do you think this 3,000 shows up from every week if they aren't the same 3,000 people every time?

Apart from a few games under Rini and last season in general, you are hard pressed to find an A-League fixture under 9,000 even in bad weather really...

This really is just a question that branched off from that formula. It would be nice to know how many individual people went to a game in a given year. Or how many attended let's say 1-3 and 3-5 and 5-13 etc. Just out of interests sake.

Interesting that you chose some difficult fractions, are you one that yearns for the old days of 12pence make a shilling, lbs/stones and the speed of light is 5,280 ft/sec. or 4.5 litres = 1 gallon?

It's actually quite a good way to keep your brain firing on a slow day. =d>



Edited by redcup: 10/10/2012 05:20:58 PM

Well 25K turned up to see us play Sydney at Adelaide Oval a few years back (lets not start that conversation about the oval as a venue), and the ACL final v Gamba sold out in minutes, so i would say the 'pool' of casual supporters might be upwards of 20K??


Those numbers I think give the right weighting to the different factors. ie I think the weather is the biggest factor for Adelaide people doing (or not doing) anything. And yes it took me half a pot ink to calculate all that ;)



Tweak away, will be interested to see your prediction. I meant to type 5500 for the number of rusted-ons, result is still 9164.

=d> Very interesting...Nevertheless, hope we hit at least 10k on Friday.

If its raining tomorrow like its raining now:( 9000 seems about right. If the rain clears off, I'd bump that to 10k.

The earlier kick-off may catch a few people out... plus some might think it will snow!:lol:

Still should get 10k, though.

I meant we can use data from this season to help improve it.

Thinking about it a bit more to get the formula to model it more realistically we'd need to know:
1. How many season ticket holders we have
2. How many tickets are sold on a typical matchday (that's the 3000/2500 you have but it's a bit of a magic number)
3. How many members turn up on a typical matchday.

That way you could use those factors that influence crowd numbers can be customised to each group. (e.g. a season ticket holder having paid for a ticket has more motivation to attend than someone who hasn't).

I think it wouldn't give you a significantly more accurate estimate though so probably not worth it.

Something that is worth it though is to find objective methods to calculate those weightings. For example, form could take into account results over the last 5 matches, table position, the round etc.

Does it really matter..? Why not just take it as it comes...:shock:

A hobby? Canonical said he was bored when he came up with it. Might not be everyone's cup of tea but a lot of people love to talk about crowds here which I personally find boring, however the challenge of modelling Hindmarsh crowds with my mathematics background (grossly underutilised and rusty) is something I'm interested in.

If you're not interested, read something else ;)

Early kickoff will be a factor and I hope that our season tickets are activated otherwise there will be massive congestion at the ticket booth to get this fix.

Weather I am not using as an excuse. we are not like Sydney who are scared off by a few drops of rain. We managed for a knockout final against Wellington back in 2011 to get well over 10,000 in pouring rain and high winds.

If these passionate supporters in the following youtube clip can sit through this then weather should not be an issue. Sure it might rain but more than likely it won't rain during the match.

[youtube]p_kYRaKket4[/youtube]

come on reds fans, the curiosity of playing a new A-League team should be incentive enough. Word is around 50 RBB supporters are heading this way and this is a team in time that will probably be one of the most hated teams in the league along with the victory.

After the reds opening round win it would nice to get around the 10-11k mark.

Of course it doesn't "matter". I'm sure they are just having a bit of fun.

Does THAT matter to you? :shock:

Out of interest....

Is everyone's lanyard for their season ticket ridiculously over-sized this year?!?! :lol:

It's mental

Oh well, off to get my mug and poncho :lol:

My ST hangs alongside last years and it appears to hang at the same height.

The rain might clear tomorrow afternoon, but it will be as cold as a witches...

Just mid week guff. Im sure the conversation will soon turn to possible formations for tomorrow night? Will the Argies start? Is Watson less shit this year? ......Are our lanyards too big? ;) .....You know, stuff that really matters.

You mean the plastic bit? Yeah, it's definitely bigger than last year's, not that I use them anyway. Perhaps it's to fit the Membership card too? :-k

What is our strongest squad when fit? I was looking at the squad that we have named for tomorrow's night game:

1.Eugene Galekovic (gk) (c), 2.Osama Malik, 3.Nigel Boogaard, 5.Iain Fyfe, 6.Cassio, 8.Marcelo Carrusca, 9.Sergio van Dijk, 10.Dario Vidosic, 11.Bruce Djite, 12.Antony Golec, 14.Cameron Watson, 16.Daniel Bowles, 17.Iain Ramsay, 18.Fabian Barbiero, 19.Jake Barker-Daish, 21.Jeronimo Neumann, 22.Fabio Ferreira, 30.John Hall (gk)
*three to be omitted*

Plus Zenon Caravella and Jon McKain, who are out injured.

So from that, which five players would you cut? Barker-Daish, Barbiero? I can't pick out three others TBH. You cannot really rid of Bowles considering he is our only RB, along with Watson, who though, is preferred in the centre of the park. Perhaps move Fyfe or Golec to the right?

Edited by Proud2becanberran: 11/10/2012 02:10:04 PM

Yeah I mean the plastic part

Its like one for a press pass

I thought about the two card thing but it's still pretty awkward in there

I mean it's not a big deal and I guess this year I'll just keep the card in my wallet

Just got used to my stupid little lanyard down the years even though i always felt self conscious about it looking dumb aha

I'm loving the fact we have genuine depth for once to be honest

Injuries and suspensions will all play their part

It's pretty damn tough to pick a starting 11 though for once I'll give you that

I mean Jeronimo is nominally a striker not a winger and Carusca is a left winger which is Ramsay's spot

Ramsay frustrates the hell out of me but I'd feel bad if he were dropped for a new guy I guess coz I have a soft spot for him

Vidosic ruled out(hamstring) for those that haven't heard:(

Apart from Eugene, second worst player to lose.

Seems pretty straight forward swap though providing players are healthy. Fabio to RW and bring Fyfe onto the bench.