Wsw were maybe last success story because they engaged the community and even though it’s a franchise league they did as well as could in the circumstances - and it was exciting to see. 
An existing club brings those crucial roots. 
The overlords may well learn a lesson from urban planning. Cities that are created by business people and not organically tend to be massive failures. 

dp

That makes more sense aha

Maybe South, given they have a stadium and largish Greek community could draw a decent crowd. A genuine derby with Victory, rather than the plastic derby with Melbourne City Pty Ltd. But only because the other clubs in Melbourne absolutely suck balls.

Why is that inevitable? I would say the more likely scenario is that the bottom 4-5 A-League clubs and the top 4-5 NSD clubs yo-yo between the divisions, which is pretty much what happens everywhere else in the world with pro-rel (including in the NPL here). So you might end up with a couple more Syd/Mel clubs some years, but it needn't annihilate the regional sides.

And if their owners lose the will to keep splurging millions of dollars a year on teams struggling to attract a fanbase, then WU and Macarthur might well end up among the relegated sides, while I would also place Wollongong Wolves as potentially one of the top NSD sides (they won the NPL play-offs a couple of years back, and are usually in contention for top spot in NSW).

You would probably end up with 3-4 teams from each of Sydney and Melbourne most seasons, with the rest being from smaller cities. That seems reasonable for a 16-team top division.

The thing about any new franchise, regardless of geography, is that every little thing has to be spot on. This isn't a new league, so the expectations will be different compared to when clubs like MV and SFC were started. It was all new then, and people were desperate for football so it was very easy for those clubs to attract fans. People have seen WU and Mac so will be very cautious of any new venture.  If we look at the new franchises that have been introduced later, there has only been one that was successful (WSW) and that's because they got everything right. Heart did ok, but got a few things wrong so it was going to be a struggle from then on. CFG fixed their on field issues, but introduced baggage which means they will continue to struggle to gain fans. WU made a bunch of mistakes (primary lying about the stadium, which they continue to do so) and as a result no one is interested. Macarthur also made a few mistakes, especially around treatment of their fans, and as a result no one is interested. Any new franchise will need to be based in a good venue. Sign a very good well known coach. Build a very good squad with at least one well known marquee player that's not 40. Win games and finish top 6 in the first 3+ seasons. Absolutely nail the colours and branding. Provide much cheaper tickets and memberships even if it's at a loss or break-even.

The thing is with Canberra, despite being a football town, is it's not big enough to have a divided fanbase if metrics are supposedly the be-all end-all. 
The support will be here for either an organic rise + NST/D whatever the acronym is now, OR a closed off franchise. The latter won't work unless relegation from A-League (or top two leagues to NPL possibly) isn't brought in for around 10 years or so.

By expanding now, where they are, yes I think the signs are pointing that even though the second division is being set up, P/R being implemented will take longer than is being hoped after that..

I think Canberra can be a success for them if done right... just questioning the timing of it...... 

I agree with everything you state... I just am saddened by the fact that the APL also knows this and this is the reason why, now after it should have been done 5-10 years ago, Canberra is finally getting an Aleague franchise..... 

WU themselves, would beg to differ mate... They stated they would NOT be interested in competing in a second tier as any participation outside of the A league would not be financially viable for their "club".. Relegation , for a franchise, is a death knell and they know it...... 

Willing to make the call now: there will never be promotion and relegation in the A League.
It will be akin to the United States, where second division clubs can apply to the join the A League. 

Sounds expensive.... hope its worth it :)

At the risk of repeating stuff that's been said 10000 times before:
- an increased potential market of 5 million / broadcasting rights in an extra territory
- an ownership group acknowledged by the other owner groups as one of the best in the league

Danny Townsend has said that he sees the A in A-League as standing for "Australasian". This is a very refreshing change from Stephen Gallop doing his best for 5 years to achieve #nixout

And then there where two ...... USA and Australia .... lets build overprices submarines together eh? hahahahahah
https://www.espn.com/soccer/india-ind/story/4791462/i-league-winners-promoted--isl-next-season-aiff

Yes it is and probably not right now.

Well Danny boy is adamant he will have investors in place by end of June ... maybe he wants to announce them at the ribbon cutting ceremony for WUs new mega stadium? hahahahahah

Is anyone going to raise a stink if NOTHING comes from this and it becomes evident it is just a "ploy" to harm/hurt NST set up??? - Do you think Vince Rugari will write a lengthy article in July/August saying "Where are the new Aleague investors"??? I doubt it. 

There are many things we could copy from the MLS... however a closed competition is not one....

Football's history in the US is different to Australia, we have had it much better..... further the US media market is very different with local issues mostly trumping national issues... 

Last year i.e. 2022, with 28 teams, the media broadcast deal for MLS was 65 million, another 25 million to the national body sides... they generated 1.85 billion in revenue with a dead set crap media deal spread over three networks with constant cancellations... i.e. 65 million as a percentage of 1.85 billion is 3.7%...  this year revenue is expected  to be over 2.3 billion with 29 teams and a new 300 million media deal...

The MLS have built themselves off crowds and fans....

Nothing I see from APL addresses the crowds.... 

Maybe the "festival of football" prior to the Sydney GF will help?

Oh BTW has anyone bothered to get Frank Brunoskevic's opinions on the financial behind A league expansion... Would be keen to have Janakan interview the NSL legend and financial guru on this if he can find him again.... 

As we discussed a couple of weeks ago, it started off as work and when from there but I analysed the MLS from a business perspective...

Please don't bite and see MLS and see a red flag....

The MLS realised they needed crowds to grow and expand... meaning they had to make the fans happy... 

Hand on heart not the other thing, no one in pre NSL, during NSL, and in the A-L has had a plan to get crowds over 15K with an average around 20K....and played over 32 to 36 weeks at least....in fact the new NSD is also is not a discussion point....

What we do have in common with the MLS or should I say had in common was poor crowds and a short season.... 

Whether is the NSD or the A_L   or a new body... the management that can lift crowd numbers to 15K plus over a 32 + round season gets my vote... sadly I can't see Main Stream Australia getting onboard with single ethnic based clubs no matter how successful or inclusive... nor can I see a competition were key decisions made outside Football people will work either i.e. stadiums... 

Some new thinking is required... IMO we should hand it over to a 28 to 35 year old and get old white men with set in train thoughts out of the way... see WSW boss as a prime example...

There you go 

Aways ahead of his time.

Boutique Stadiums
No wage restrictions
Plus all your criteria

Canberra will comfortably be in the top 6 teams in terms of membership and attendances.

A very low bar, but they will be well set up from the off. 

They have had plans in place for over 4 years i believe. 

An A-league level stadium is already there, and id imagine this will help with a push for a new stadium too. 

Auckland is a no-brainer. Big city, immediate rivalry, great stadiums to choose from to call home (Mount smart would be amazing). With 1.5 million people in the city, if they can gather 1% of them as an average crowd they will lead the league in attendance.

Mid, the APL IS the MLS mate... or at least they are trying to be...... Everything that comes out of Trashcans mouth echoes the ONLY OTHER "Unique" football league in the world...
Centralised ownership "group"
Investing in strategic marketplaces, 
Pooled finances and resources for marquee funds

Its too exhausting to go on and on and on... Danny and the APL investors want this whole thing to run as an entertainment franchise league (see NBA, NFL, NHL) etc etc,, Centralised control over EVERYTHING, down to tho most minute (yet monetisable) detail like what socks, shoes and jocks the players wear... These other leagues however dont have to worry about representing their nations, in their given sport, internationally (and they are naturally good at Basketball because if the college system anyway) but we dont have that luxury.....

Im all for APL doing whatever makes it, and its consumers happy but it has to stay out of the way of REAL soccer in this country now. 

I would say both cities have adequate but not amazing stadiums. Neither Bruce nor Mt Smart are in accessible locations, and they're both old and cavernous, even with ca. 25k capacities. Still, way better than the stadium situations for Brisbane or Western Utd.

But both cities have on-again, off-again plans for new, centrally located stadiums which might be given fresh impetus with the introduction of A-League teams. Hopefully the plans would be for a compact, intimate 20k stadium, appropriate for A-League, NRL and Super Rugby attendances (Auckland can keep Eden Park for internationals and other big attendance matches).

WU don't have a veto power over the decision. Given how terrible they and Macarthur have been off the field, I would hazard to say there is a bit of resentment from the other owners at them, and at the old FFA for letting them when there were superior alternatives.

They might have committed ownerships now, but if those groups walk away and a replacement isn't found, it's hard to see the APL propping them up a la Newcastle. In that scenario, relegation would be an easy way to nudge them out of the top flight, and then they can rejig themselves as locally-oriented semi-pro clubs building on a long-term basis. It would certainly be preferable over the teams going belly-up and disappearing into thin air a la North Queensland or Gold Coast Utd.

Finally some optimism. The negativity around this place is exhausting.

Who knew I wasn't even watching real soccer




Looks bloody real to me

10,000 people in Adelaide will watch us try cement second spot/catch a faltering City tomorrow night.

20,000+ will be doing the same at the Sydney derby Saturday.

I’ll be watching both and I’ll be loving it because this season has been genuinely entertaining with great football being played by the best players in the country.

That’s 30,000+ at two games who do not log in to Inside Sport’s secret forums who are going to have a great night.

Food for thought.