I have often worried that outside the Glasgow giants, Scotland is a poor place for our Aussies to improve. My worry has been mainly based on the fact that the style of play outside of Celtic/Rangers is an outlier in world football, averaging around 450 aggregate passes per game compared to most similar quality leagues averaging 750. We want to prepare players for the highest level - the world cup or advanced champions league stages where this number often pips 1000 passes per game! I have worried that this radical change in style makes for poor preparation for international football.

A couple of people pushed back, saying that there are plenty of SPL players getting big contracts at better leagues. A fair point if true, so I wanted to see how the SPL does compared to similar quality leagues. I wasn’t interested in players from Celtic or Rangers, since I am thrilled at any Aussie that gets a gig there and agree that they provide good preparation for international football. I was also not interested in anyone that left as a kid, since these are players who have gone through Scotland's superior youth development system and left after receiving their first taste of professional football in the SPL. Even if the SPL does well at giving kids their first gig, we are sending older age players to the SPL and I want to know how much adults improve in this league. So is it true that scouts all across Europe are tuning into the SPL? Short answer is no, not even scouts in Scotland are tuning into the SPL.

So here is my methodology. I used club ELO to find which leagues are similar to the SPL after removing Celtic and Rangers. The ones I chose are the Greek league minus their top four, Sweden minus their top 2 and Norway minus their top two. I was curious about transfers of adult players (aka players that left at the age of 23 or older) from the league to clubs that were a step up, whether in the same league like Celtic/Rangers or to another higher quality league. I define a step up as in remaining in Europe, which meant excluding some K-league transfers) and an elo of at least 100 higher. I am ignoring all loans and free transfers. All transfer numbers from transfermarkt and I chose the seasons 22/23 and 21/22 since the current season isn't completed yet. My conclusion is that the SPL drastically underperforms similar quality leagues

SPL: Excluding Celtic and rangers, the bottom 10 clubs have an elo of 1274. The only adult transfers I could find for the past 2 seasons excluding the glasgow giants are (all currency in euro)

Ryan hedges to blackburn for 150k
Lawrence Shankland to Beerschot for 1.18million
Matt macey luton 115k

Greek super league: this league has 4 big guns in AEK, PAOK, Olympiakos and Panathinaikos. Excluding these clubs, the bottom 10 have an elo of 1268, almost identical to the SPL minus the Glasgow giants. The adult transfers to bigger clubs from these ten over the last two years are

Aboubakar Kamara to Oympiacos for 5million
Daniel Mancini to Panathinaikos for 3million
Giannis Kargas to Paok for 280k
Paolo Fernandes to Aek for 700k
Tom van Weert to Aek for 500k
Efthymios Koulouris to LASK for 1mil
Charilaos Charisis to Sivassport for 500k
Lindsay Rose to Legia Warsaw for 600k
Giannis Kotsiras to Panathinaikos for 250k
Fabio Sturgeon to Rakow for 500k

Sweden: If we exclude Elfsborb and Malmo, the remaining 14 teams have an elo pretty close to the bottom 10 in the SPL at 1305. The adult transfers of these bottom 14 teams are

Gustav berggren to Rakow for 500k
Hjalmar Ekdal to burnley for 2.8 million
Veton Berisha to Molde for 3million
Astrit Selmani to Beer Sheva for 1 million
Alexander Jallow to Brescia for 400k
Moustafa Zeidan to Malmo for 800k
Asiak Witry to Az Alkmaar for 1.75 mil
Martin Olsson to Malmo for 500k
Fidan Aliti to Zurich for 1.2mil

Norway: This league is apparently better than I thought, which is good for Yazbek, D’aggers and Stesness. If we exclude Bodo and Molde, the bottom 14 clubs have a healthy elo of 1358. Adult transfers from the last 2 seasons are.

Stefano Vecchia to Malmo for 1million
Kaan Kairinen to sparta prague for 1.5 million
Odin Bjortuft to Bodo for 1 million
Tobias Lauritsen to Sparta Rotterdam for 450k
Kjetil Haug to Toulouse for 500k
Alioune Ndour to Zulte Waregem for 1.2 million
Lars Salvesen to Bodo for 1 million
Kristian Eriksen to Molde for 1.5million
Sam Adekugbe to Hatayspor for 400k
Mikkel dealer to toulouse for 500k

The trend is so strong it barely needs analysis, but to drive the point home, let's take some averages. Not all the leagues I have compared have the same number of clubs remaining once you remove the giants. So I rescaled the total transfer worth to the number of clubs

Scotland
Number of adult transfers: 3
Total transfer value: 1.45 million

Greece:
Number of adult transfers: 10
Total transfer value: 12.3 milion

Sweden:
Rescaled number of adult transfers: 6.43
Rescaled total transfer value: 7.4 million

Norway:
Rescaled number of adult transfers: 7.2
Rescaled total transfer value: 6.4 million

In conclusion, Scotland outside the Glasgow giants looks like a dead end for football development. It is simply not true that scouts all across Europe are looking at this league, it is not even true that scouts in Scotland are looking at this league as it was much more common in comparable leagues for players to transfer to the giants within the league. Not much can be done for players already there, but players considering going there should consider Norway, Sweden or Greece. Greece in particular is impressive and you get to play against 4 giants rather than 2 which is good preparation for international football. If you are good enough for Scotland, you are probably good enough for those leagues too, but you will probably improve more and perform better for the roos everything else being equal.

also on a slightly different note, if the a league moved to winter football, a proper length season and had a proper transfer market there is a lot of money to be made. Probably enough to make clubs break even. 

This seems to be so logical to me for them to do. It really beggars belief that they are so ingrained in their ways that they don't want to move to a winter season. It just makes sense. And making the season longer is a no brainer. Mooy is a good example of a player that was great and could make the grade in Europe, but needed to be nursed along to get there.

The A League clubs are producing (at long last) a good crop of youngsters, and they need finishing off to produce the $$$ in the bank. 

Even with out short, summer season, if we just fixed our transfer system that would help a lot

the a league has recently had adult transfers to higher clubs in d'agostino, silvera, glover and o'niell (any others I missed? Must be 23 or older when they leave). Incredibly most of these were free or undisclosed. If we fixed our darn transfer system we would already have a more impressive adult transfer record than the bottom 10 in the spl

That's the mistake you and others keep making. The a league has always had a load of good youngsters the clubs just didn't give a shit about them. It was a buying league not a selling league.

How could more money be made  moving to winter? 

I'd love to move the A L to winter, but didn't realise more money could be made?

Just a theory

but the body weight of aussie players is very light when they go to europe and they often have to spend a year or two bulking up. I expect the ideal body weight is different in winter and summer football. If oz players were ready to go straight away i expect their transfer value would increase

it would also mean we are in season when a lot of euro clubs are looking for players which could help too

mate your time and research is to be commended as mentioned before good on you.

Its interesting makes me feel convicted purely by my and others viewing experience all the years.

Never rated the league that much as a neutral but admire the passion and loyalty by its supporters for thats what you got and luv.
Kudos more so the clubs under the big 2 for generally they never have/had a chance and their supporter base, diehards is a good description good on them.

So regarding the Greek transfer figure last 2yrs.
So Tsimikas just missed out being incl for he signed for LFC in 2020 @ 11.75M lbs.
His transfer is near on the their last 2yrs says alot.

Are your figures A$ or lbs ?

Tsimi isnt even one of the highest in recent times dude (Love the kid at the reds but dont get me started on his scum former club).
Retso went to Leverkusen a few years ago for 18 mill pounds
Manolas to Roma for 15mill
Mitroglou almost 10 years ago for same money as Tsimi

Greek league is slowly becoming a selling league and reaping the rewards. Some of our lads would be failry well avised to go and trial at some of the big 4 or 5 clubs... Get a chance at playing in Europa or Conference league and get some eyes on them rather than whiling away the time on the training pitch or on the pine.
Some of the Greek academies now are starting to get good at recognising emerging talent, buying low and selling high eg.

PAOK bought Prijovic for 2 mill 5 years ago and sold him to the Saudis for 10mill plus 2 year later...... The Saudi's dumped him to the Tarneit gypsies as a has been for pocket change....

The thing my analysis shows is that even outside of the big 4 clubs in greece it is a brilliant stepping stone to better things (including the big 4-5). According to ELO, the quality of the bottom 10 is also about as good as the bottom 10 clubs in the spl, so game time shouldn't be a problem

Thanks for your kind words! All dollares are in euros. The passion of the supporters is definitely something I wish we had here!

Oh and also, to echo LFC, brilliant research Grazor... nice read.

Thanks!

Calvin Ramsay Aberdeen to liverpool 2022 6.5million pounds
Lewis Ferguson Aberdeen to Bologna 2022 2 million Euros
Ben Doak Celtic to Liverpool 2022 600000 pounds
Nathan Patterson Rangers to Everton 2022, 12 million pounds
Calvin Bassey Rangers to Ajax 2022,20 million pounds
Joe Aribo Rangers to Southampton 2022, 6 million pounds
Glen Kamara Rangers to Leeds 2023 5 million pounds
Only a few that i can think of, off the top of my head.

We still can't believe the deal we got here

We only paid Dundee £50,000 for him in 2019. Class player.

note the methodology. I exclude kids (u23 when leaving) and the glasgow giants from the spl, similar treatment to the other 3 leagues I compare. All of those players are excluded under that methodology. Read the thread for why I chose that methodology

Away with yer methodology pish.

well his methodology pish was explained in black and white and showed alot about the SPL compared to other leagues that was interesting reading and made sense.

And i still think his whole methodology was a lot of pish.He only picked out the bits to suit his shite agenda.An adult age starts from 23 ? Foxtrot Oscar !

My agenda is to find out which is the best league for aussies that have already gone through our development pathway (so aren't kids) but aren't getting offers from a stronger league like the eredivisie/juliper league/portrugese league or a powerhouse in lower ranked league like celtic/rangers. This is why I defined adult age as when an aussie is likely to go there after graduating from the a league

I have two worries about the spl - the conflict in styles compared to international football as shown by their aggregate passes and the difficulty transferring out of there to someone better once you are no longer a kid getting your first gig

Musa Toure is quite young, so this may not apply to him. Though it might because it could be that SPL academies are much better than their league at improving players and musa hasn't gone through the full development path. Neiwenhof went just before my cutoff so he will be interesting too. Let's see though

I think most posters perceive this thread as a very insightful, constructive and well-researched thread, Grazor.

One can 't please all people all of the time. 

Look forward to you starting a thread using comprehensive, well researched data, Sutherland Bear.

I'll stick to actual facts, thank you very much.

Btw, one bit of the action i'm following in Scotland. Suprisingly, it's not the premiership.

Nikola Ujdur

NPL journeyman who couldn't get more than a hand full of games in the NPLs let alone an AL contract.

Signed for Inverness and so far 9 starts for 1 goal and 1 assist as a defender and the 3rd best performed defence in the division.

Man would it be awesome to see a bloke in his mid 20s make that leap despite never having been pro and finding his way into the Scotish premiership.

Brilliant thread, Grazor!

Thanks for all the time you've taken to research the data - very impressive!

Very interesting info about the Greek league - having 4 big clubs.

From reading this thread, Greece needs to be looking at Croatia next door, Portugal and Switzerland, to see what other similar sized population UEFA nations are doing to have far more successful national teams than Greece ATM.

Greece shapes as a good destination for Aus players at club level, yet they have  underperformed for a long time as a national team - compared to Denmark, Croatia , Switzerland and Portugal. When I was in Greece when Olympiakos played Panathanaikos, it was like everybody watched it around the country.

I love the country too - great lifestyle. I would have thought it is a good country for Aussies to play football. I have read there is a great deal of disorganisation, and not necessarily corruption, but cronyism and nepotism being rife in Greek football.

Mono?

 there is a great deal of disorganisation, and  corruption, but cronyism and nepotism being rife in Greek football.. absolutely there is.

And yet, despite all this Greece has had EXACTLY the same level of international football success as both Portugal and Denmark (one Euro each) and more than Switzerland and Croatia combined.... 

Not in the last 20 years?

Greece has barely qualified for a WC in this era.

It must be extremely frustrating for Greek and Scottish national team fans on here, like you and Lurker, et al, that Aus players, and coaches, see it as a step up to play club football in Greece and Scotland, but your national teams have had less international success than the Socceroos in the last 20 years.

Greece winning the UEFA Champs in 2004 was an anomaly.

This  scenario must also apply to Italy in recent times, and England and Croatia, until recently.

Firstly Ill ask you to kindly keep your racist, xenophobic assumptions to yourself.
I am just as much an Australian as you pretend to be and any inference otherwise can, together with your fake coaching credentials,  go to hell.

Secondly your baiting is childish at best... Repeating  the same old tired garbage over and over and over again with the hope that someday somebody responds to it must be so frustrating, why dont you channel your energy into cricket or politics or something you may know a little more about?

Very strange response. Where has this come from?

I spend a fair bit of time  campaigning against racism and xenophobia in  the political sphere.  I don't have any bogus football coaching quals either.

There must be some sort of bizarre defence mechanism where some fans who reside in Aus continue to put down Aus football. It can only be surmised those who have strong allegiances to some parent countries are frustrated that the Socceroos are a more highly ranked international football nation.  Greece, Scotland and a few other countries could do worse than evaluate why that is? The English FA were going to conduct a tour of Aus after the 2014 WC, according to Stan Collymore.

The KNVB made it clear, whilst in Aus, that it is common practice in Europe for countries to keep a close an eye on their neighbours. After Netherlands failed to qualify for the WC in 2018, esteemed coach/Tech Dir, Ed Ten Cate, conducted an immediate overhaul of Netherlands. They were struggling to produce players like they had in the past in some positions.

Ten Cate  ventured into France and Germany to evaluate practices that had been more successful. They were implemented in Holland. Fast forward to 2022 and Netherlands not only qualified for the  Qatar WC, but made the quarter finals. Netherlands are a UEFA team who travels well - unlike a number of other UEFA teams. They've come 2nd in 2010 South Africa, 3rd in Brazil 2014, and reached the quarters in Qatar 2022. 

I guess outside the power houses,  different countries excel at different aspects of preparing a good national team
some excel at youth development like Croatia
some excel at having a league add value to players like Greece
some excel at having coaches add value to the national team and punching above their weight like Australia

winning an asian cup, qualifying for 5 world cups (including against the 5th place SA team) and getting to the round of 16 with a very weak team on paper is probably showing the fruit of our coaching overhaul. It is true that we have an easier path than uefa, but still impressive so it seems that investment paid off. Would love for us to improve the other two areas emulating Greece and Croatia

true what you say above but you can also consider what stage were our opponents as well.
They also go through high lows, injuries, good coaching system broke down/sack coach new coach - there are so many questions but one saying comes to mind, on the day.
The Duke head flick fluke - come on try that 500times no way But the score says win, nothing about a once in a lifetime fluky goal.
Though some will say using results and stats its the coaching :)
Luck never registers into stats.

true, you can't control coaching, but I guess good coaching makes it possible to be close enough that luck matters. If we improve other parts of australia football, then might find ourselves relying on luck to make the semis rather than the world cup and the r16

It's not fair to call that goal luck. Winning the ball, switching it out, fantastic strikers run and that header. The whole thing was world class from start to finish by Duke. 

Good point about luck, LFC.

One of our forum members, Arthur, posted some excellent articles on the role of chance in games. It was posted in the Performance section many years ago.

Chance is a huge element in any football games. I think the figure was mooted at 40%.

Arthur has strong links with Greece, was/is a  NPL club Pres, and had a role in placing young Aussies in Scottish clubs. It would be good to hear his insights for this  topic.

Thanks,
Arthur is a treasure when he makes the time to join in - learn alot every single time from his real world experience.

Wow if thats true near to 40% thats huge but not surprised.
Only X teams in every single comp have the ability to carve a goal for eg playing from the back today to the end result with total conviction so its makes some sense.
Quicky I still say Duke's goal was an utter fluke - sure he had natural instinct to attack the opportune moment and damn fantastic kudos to him for thats the game, try something without even thinking it would pay off and thats luck going your way.

I think your thread sheds light on strengths of different countries' football scenarios.

Good point about Croatia, Greece and Aus's relative  strengths.

I think it has helped us in Aus a lot, having to travel  and play in Asian conditions. I'm very much taking heed of Arnie constantly stating the weakness in the Aus club paradigm is the short season. 

This thread has very much alerted me to the inherent value of Greece as a destination for Euroroos. Also, the climate is much more benign than England, Scotland, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. It should be easier to produce decent pitches in the football season at nominal cost.

How long is the Greek season?

I think Greece's youth development is worse than croatia - almost every country is worse at youth development than croatia. However, the Greek superleague league is very good  at adding value to adult players despite being a 3rd tier level outside the big 4 clubs. That is precisely what our 2nd tier of aussies need. Nothing wrong with sweden or norway either as a stepping stone

Absolutely Croatia is the envy of many a world powerhouse..... Definitely something in the water in most of these ex-Yugoslav nations... they punch well above their weight...

seriously D2 do you think the countless countries that never qualify are depressed or so so unhappy every 4yrs.
There are on 211 countries that start the qualy game process, plus the ongoing improvements that some countries gain and others go backwards for probably so many reasons.
You make out as if some you mention are backwards compared to us making the last 5 ffs.
Thats that typical analytical jargon speak.
Tell you one thing I'll take the hype and happiness winning a Euro over qualifying 5 WC's anyday.
We just making up the number no more no less, we are not out playing opponents with conviction but doing enough to get through thats it......
I sure wouldn't boast to the many OS friends in defense we've made the cup last 5times compared to my Italian mates who have won four titles (1934, 1938, 1982, 2006), appearing in two other finals (1970, 1994), and reaching also a third (1990) and a fourth (1978) place then throw in the last Euro amongst other trophies.

Or my Cro and Portugese mates let alone the Scots.

All these countries and more have their ups and downs thats sport/football and how many top shelf players all over EU the rich's they have.
Though we have qualied 5 WC's and Arnie da best we got further than ever before - christ mate its a good achievement considering our circumstances and all but pull your head in..........
There is alot of greek players that own alot of ours more than visa versa says something no.

To be fair I obsess over the Australian national team that much :D

look, don't get me completely cold, I'd hurt us not making it but also kind of expect it again.
The last 2 we made by the coat of paint.
I dont count my chickens till they've hatched kind of process.

Some nations consistently underachieve internationally given the strength of their  domestic leagues. England was one until Gareth Southgate and Steve Holland started coaching underage English teams. I've read a lot about Southgate researching a lot of continental European methodology  - and - turning up to English  coaching seminars across other sporting  codes - union, league, cricket,  hockey, athletics, etc.

Other coaches stated they'd never seen any English football  coach attend any of these events. They thought they were above it. Southgate learned heaps .  Even though they haven't won anything, a bit like the Dutch, and Croatia, England are now consistent performers in big  tournaments under Southgate's tutelage. England fans used to  project a defence mechanism they didn't care about international football. Now they are a veritable international powerhouse, that has disappeared.

Italy have been a powerhouse - no doubt. They've had recent inconsistency though. Ostensibly, they won UEFA Champs 2020 and went late into UEFA Champs 2016, but failed to qualify for successive WCs in 2018 and 2022. For such international pedigree, that is an unmitigated failure for the Azzurri.

In National  Coaching Conferences organised by Football Aus/FFA, it has been consistently preached from the pulpit that world powerhouses have consistent success. They have a production line of players year after year, decade after decade. Powerhouses consistently qualify for underage and senior World Cups.

 Golden Generations are perceived to have been  consistent with mid ranked nations. Hence, Aus has followed the powerhouses and tried to emulate what they do. It might not work, but the football boffins have decided there is no other way to have success for Aus.

I'm not going to pull my head in,  in  disseminating a lot of of modern football thought espoused by football luminaries - even if sadly it upsets one or two who haven't had access to those resources. If it were me, I'd be striving to find out more info about football phenomena I didn't know much about. 

Grazor has arrived at some very interesting data. I'm fascinated by  the Greek club milieu. Who would have realised  researching the subject of players' transfers in  what were axiomatically perceived as similar quality leagues, being different in mid and lower ranked clubs having differing transfer success to better leagues?  

 

I hit a nerve.....
All and good D2, I actually had typed out a long sermon but thought bugger it deleted so as the thread stays on track.

This is quite impressive having four big clubs in the Greek league, with a population of only 10 - 11 million.

In Portugal, population 9 million,  Sporting, Benfica, Porto(Oporto) and Boa Vista, are considered  as their big four.  When I visited Portugal  there is another club a bit inland and east of Porto, Braga, that has probably had more recent success than Boa Vista. 

Any idea how a big club is defined, Grazor?

Also, what percentage of the big four Greek clubs starting elevens are Greek nationals eligible for national team selection?

Hadn't realised PAOK and AEK were similar standing to the other two big Greek clubs?

In the past did we have more Aussies playing in Greece?

I know former Socceroo captain Charlie Yankos did. Did Nathan Burns play in the  top Greek league?

I'm defining big club as a club that has an elo score that is a big jump from the rest of the league and is roughly in line with at least the bottom of the big 5 clubs. For EPL they have improved lately and their bottom clubs are in the 1600s. For the rest of the big 5 mid 1500s to 1600s is the bottom of the league. So around mid 1500s-1600s is about where I'd put a big club for these 3rd tier leagues (2nd teir is eredivisie, belgium, portrugal)

for greece the elo's are

Paok 1581
Olympiakos 1580
AEK 1568
Panatheniakos 1555

Then the drop begins 

Aros 1422
Ophe 1306
and so on, with a very slow drop for the rest of the clubs (bunch of clubs in the 1200s)

1

Ta.

If the big clubs in the smaller leagues are approximately equivalent to the lower clubs in the big UEFA five, then that is pretty good. Not sure France is in the current big UEFA five?

Even if an Aussie was playing for a lower ranked Greek club, they would have 4 big clubs to play against in a season. Not sure how many of the Greek big four get to play in Champ League or Europe League comps in a season?

 I used to co-coach with a guy who had played for AEK. He was of Egyptian descent.  His brother played for Olympiakos. Not sure if Greek clubs focus hard to scout African talent? 

The Greek  alphabet has a different alphabet from English to learn. Not sure what the expectations are in Greek clubs for language for those non- Greek speakers?

Language could be an issue. Sweden and norway also look good and they speak english almost as good as we do

elo still rates france as fifth and is more accurate than uefa coefficients imo, it also agrees witg my eyes. Watching genreau, ryan, bos and oniell i still think france is the fifth best league

Hey Grazor just wanted to say that was an excellent read. It'll be interesting to follow this and see how the Aussies in Scotland progress and what moves they make.

Going back a while a lot of Aussies got starts there and moved to bigger leagues. Muscat, Vidmar, Viduka, Moore, McDonald. Then there was a gap between them and this new group of players who are playing in Scotland. 

It's interesting that Baccus was close to a transfer last year. Bolton I think. Irvine made a good move to St Pauli and could be playing Bundesliga next year. 

One thing I wonder is about opportunity. It could be that there aren't the same opportunities being offered in Greece and Sweden to Aussie players despite being similar standards? Viking in Norway seems to like Aussies. It'll be interestinv to watch those players progress too. I wonder if there are barriers there?

I think there are also players where a league like Scotland will be their level and that's okay. 

I think only Dukes  of the players   you've mentioned went on to a bigger league than the SPL, Quicky?

Maybe Vidmar went to Holland before or after Rangers?

Muscat only went to the Championship. Leaving Rangers for this league was possibly a step down.

Macca leaving Celtic for the Championship, was probably a step down.

Moore never  established himself anywhere else. They wanted him back at Rangers, which was his biggest club in his career. Actually late in his career, whilst playing AL he played in the Greek league under a Dutch coach to get extra games before a big tournament.

Of course Dukes' Leeds and Newcastle EPL career is well documented.

Viduka: Leeds, Middlesbrough, Newcastle
Moore: Newcastle, Borussia Monchengladbach
Vidmar: Middlesbrough, Cardiff, NAC Breda
McDonald: Middlesbrough, Millwall
Muscat: Millwall (including a run to the FA Cup final)

Championship >>> SPL