still a fact and evidence free zone I see, come back when you have something more than your opinion to offer

Your first point literally illustrates what AJF said about selective stats used to make political points. The numbers were gradually reducing before the impact of the stage 4 restrictions could be measured and the gradual reduction has been consistent. But don't forget, Victoria didn't start with 17,000 or so infections. They grew from a very small base over a long period of time, and a lot of this was while lockdown measures were being implemented

And my point about "starving" was about highlighting that we have different geographical circumstances that other countries don't have. We can shut our borders, they can't. If some countries implemented the same system as Australia their people would be starved of essential resources

113 new cases again today. Still not down to double digits, but that makes it five consecutive days under 150, which is very encouraging.

Wonder what it'd be without a lockdown?

-PB

Thats a paradox. We wouldnt have gotten those numbers to begin with - as seen with every other state

If you want to see the mentality of people in this country read the articles on the debate whether or not to have schoolies. Despite everything going on in the world right now, whether they can celebrate the end of school with their mates in concerning social numbers with the poor behaviour we come to expect from these kind of gatherings is the most important thing going on right now. What people cant do by law they'll do by force. Its basic human philosophy. The states that say "this is how you do x" will always fair better than the states that say "you cannot do x"

Lockdown only works if people follow it. I hope I'm not stating the obvious

The virus doesnt just have a ceiling but it also has a floor. Once you are down to a very small number of cases then you get to a stage where it either dies entirely or you have one person give it to 3 and you get mini resurgences. You can see this if you look at the national numbers before the Victorian outbreak

Since Victoria has a large number of individual clusters and facilities there may not be any room for those figures to get lower until the clusters are eradicated entirely. If (for example) there are 80 facilities with the virus, then a single new case in each facility gives you a daily count of 80. You pretty much have to multiply what we have seen on a national scale by 3 or 4 as what to expect for a while

Don't be alarmed over 3 digit figures just because they are 3 digits. Unless you can break that number down you can't be sure whether this thing has been beaten or not

Then is the paradox better to err on the side of caution and do whatever it takes to save as many lives as possible?

-PB

The definition is "whatever it takes" and it applies to reasonable. I'll give an example

Face masks are the 6th line of defence after quarantine, social distancing, hygiene, education etc... The best advice we have locally, nationally and globally is wear a face mask when you have no other option. For front line staff they are only effective with other measures. They have some impact in places where you cant control personal space such as public transport. And they are also an extra layer of protection for those who feel more comfortable

For this to be regulated as law there first needs to be a state of emergency declared, there then needs to be sign off and approval by the various parties. The laws need to be written in an unambiguous way, the police need to be trained, resources need to be applied, there needs to be an appeals process, money needs to be taken, and citizens need to be happy with it

Typically extreme measures like this are for enforcing mandatory quarantine, directed isolation orders, ensuring work places are compliant, illegal gatherings etc... Measures that are critical in the make or break of containing the virus outbreak in the interest of public safety as a whole

Now what Victoria have done is:
1/ Take the extreme and drastic action to make this 6th line of defence mandatory by law
2/ Take the extreme and drastic action to apply it state wide
3/ Take the extreme and drastic action to make it mandatory in all circumstances out of the house and in the house when others are present
4/ Take the extreme and drastic action to apply for powers to impose the restrictions after the broader lockdown measures such as stage 3 and 4 have been lifted

Now let me remind you again - face masks are a nice to have 6th line of defence that are an extra layer of protection for those who want it, and a last line of defence for those who have nothing else

So why the extreme and drastic measures to not only enforce it as law state wide as a permanent part of the Victorian way of life, but also to obtain the relevant powers to enforce them, and the resources (such as valuable police staff and minutes) to impose them

Don't think for a minute Victoria are acting reasonably and doing no more than what is required to keep the virus under control. There is a reason why we are seeing high levels of non compliance

If Victoria had a balanced and level headed response like every other state there wouldnt be an issue. During the initial lockdown we were all in it together. Then for 3 weeks we were locked down while our friends, family, relatives, work mates etc... were given freedoms that we werent. I didnt read the full quote from Scott Morrison but Australia wasn't designed to have borders and in the case of a national emergency, a unified approach makes the most sense

If the Victorian government wants to apply by extreme force and extreme measures a petty 6th line of defence that makes no real difference in the battle against the virus then so be it. But dont tell me its reasonable and in my best interests. And dont tell me the same for keeping regional Victoria in lockdown when the largely metro problem is subsiding

18 minutes long but a strongly recommended watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7A0S7UbXyY

I realise that local eradication is the only end goal, but I'm still glad it's as low as it is now. If we don't celebrate the gains we won't have any hope.

Double digits, 94 cases in Victoria today. Home stretch, hopefully.

Good news on the virus front but sadly I think people are more scared of the fire brigade than they are of the fire

The real point of concern is what our state is going to look like from September 14 onwards. Thats the real battle IMO

Well if people just do the right thing and follow protocol we should be OK. But knowing the idiotic few we will probably get people  ignoring advice .

But thats the issue. Time and time again during outbreaks we are told if we do the right thing and the numbers are under control we'll get our freedom

Then when the outbreak is under control we are thanked for our efforts, told that obviously the restrictions are working and necessary, and they do a 180 on our promise of freedom

People in Victoria dont want raves and parties and packed out venues. They just want the exact same conditions as everybody else has been granted. And the importance of this is what (I think) McJules was saying is that when communities are on opposite sides of a border, you can't have one group of people under restriction in a state that allows for freedom of movement

Victoria need only enforce by law mandatory quarantine, forced isolation, social distancing for businesses allowed to operate at various stages of the pandemic, and acceptable numbers in terms of gatherings. Everything else should be optional

The aim of the game is suppression, not eradication. There will be cases, there will be clusters forcing places to shut down and people will die. But we have to learn to live side by side with the virus. Its a point people seem to forget every time they want to throw the state into lockdown because 2 cases were found

You're gonna have to show me a timeline of events. While I wasn't focused on Victoria at the time, my understanding was the numbers continued to climb in Victoria under stage 3, hence the need to go to stage 4. Numbers dipped pretty much immediately (but that is really due to Stage 3 restrictions since there is a 2 week lag). However, it is only since today that Victoria has dropped to double digit numbers. So the 17,000 infections grew from a small base while under more relaxed Stage 3 restrictions. So were those controls not working or were slow to come into effect? 

I agree that we can't compare ourselves to others based on our geographical circumstances. We are blessed with that factor and the fact that we are pretty self sufficient. 

I see Alt Shift X, I watch.

You know 2020's a disaster when Alt Shift X starts doing videos about real life.

Stage 3 restrictions arent more relaxed. They are less severe. They are the highest level of restrictions you would impose to control a large outbreak unless you had to resort to extreme and unprecedented measures

The timeline of events is after the 8 week initial lockdown that the whole Australia went through, every state announced restaurants etc... will open for 10 people. Victoria on the other hand said people could only leave their house for a 5th reason which was to visit others. They were allowed to have 20 people at their house before they were allowed to go back to work or school (which had a 3% state wide attendance rate)

The timing of this was the outbreak of the meats plant, McDonalds, and I think the hotel. The social patterns of people visiting people simply led to this spreading from household to household to household. It was made worse by the Queens birthday weekend (I know people shit scared of this virus who travelled to a house party in Geelong)

As you have identified the virus takes time to present itself. 3-5 days for symptoms, a couple of days to get tested, 3-5 days to process results. You are pretty much taking about 10-18 days for a case to be diagnosed and up to 3 weeks for a pattern. Also with a virus that doubles every week it takes an extra week or two before the numbers that start from a low base are even concerning. So the problem wasn't identified until the last week or two of June

There was a postcode lockdown which didnt work. Then Melbourne was brought to stage 3 which didnt work. And masks were made mandatory which didnt work. The numbers continued to climb. And the reason for this, in my opinion, is that the established social pattern of people going from household to household bypassed the lockdown restrictions which are only effective if people are moving about the community

The most common sense approach from the Victorian government was when it was announced Geelong couldnt have people at houses but could go to restaurants. It was acknowledgement of tighter restrictions needed at home and lighter restrictions in the public to redirect social habits (which takes weeks not hours). But this was nullified by mandatory face masks (which is a social deterrent) and it only lasted 4 days anyhow before it as retracted in favour of state wide stage 3

Why the numbers came down is up to speculation. My personal theory is the virus was capped by the finite amount of linked households. This is why it grew gradually. If it managed to get into Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat like it threatened to then there would have been more growth. But this didnt happen because I think regional places are more scared of the virus

Either way the numbers were on a downward path before the impact of stage 4 could be seen. I think they were the high 300s 9 days after stage 4 lockdown, and then there was a gradual dip to mid 300s, high 200s, mid 200s etc... to what we see now. Not a sudden drop you would expect if you had created barriers that prevented 75% of people from contracting the virus

Now the points I want to make from all that is as follows:
. The first point is the philosophy of keeping people at home inflamed the virus and made it difficult to control. This is where the mentality of more is better failed. People need a life balance
. The second point is I'm not saying lockdown has no impact but it shouldnt be used as a tool to blindly hack away at the virus. It needs to be calculated, measured and purposeful
. The third point is you only need to do what is necessary to control the virus. Taking the same method, process and force used to make sure sick people isolate and applying it to whether or not somebody has a cloth covering their face when they go for a walk is needless. 
. The final point is a 6 week plan is ineffective if you dont give it 6 weeks. If stage 4 had no impact, as we have both speculated, then that means the 6 week stage 3 lockdown would have seen figures in the low 100s when it finished, and the figure we see today after week 7. If the process for coming out of lockdown slow and painful then why does going into lockdown require tougher and tougher measures implemented 2 or 3 days apart? We are again in a situation where we don't know what worked

Victoria havent been prepared to live side by side with the virus and the attitude has always been its too dangerous to go outside so stick to working from home, schooling from home, and where possible do or your socialising at your house or somebody elses. All this did was create the best environment for the virus to spread

Victoria simply need to bring themselves in line with the other states and give us the basic options for work, school, sport, recreation and controlled social conditions. And none of this face mask bullshit just because its a hot topic of debate overseas. If this becomes a sacred cow of this virus you can expect to see more division and non compliance. We are the same people with the same cultural and social practices and the virus impacts us in the same way. Anything good enough for the other states is good enough for us

I think that will happen when the numbers go down again to similar figures that are in NSW. It could have happened in NSW as well and then we would be under lockdown as well. I don't think anyone is saying this is a permanent feature - numbers just need to go down to a manageable level.

I think the GOT Season 8 Finale broke him. All that research and work for a bs conclusion. 

I still remember his live stream after the Battle of Winterfell episode. It was like watching someone in the denial phase of grief. Can't blame him, either. All that work he put in as you mentioned and they wrapped it up in such a half arsed way.

Those who sacrifice freedom for safety deserve neither freedom nor safety. 

Oh look ma . 

Ironic coming from the guy who doesn't think same-sex couples should have the freedom to get married.

Then thats the one point we have to disagree on and the reason why I am so opposed to the 12 month state of emergency extension plan

Victoria has not at any time demonstrated a level headed approach to this and the strategy has always been to eliminate the virus by crippling the host. Not just actively but also preemptively

The first 8 week lockdown crippled people financially, but the second one has crippled people emotionally. We already have emergency mental health packages in the millions thrown into the state

I would rather have the so called "3 more waves" then another 12 months of watching people break one at a time

That's not the correct quote I don't believe lol

-PB

Don’t wear a seatbelt next time you’re in a car...

I believe that same sex couples need the grace and blessings of God, like everyone else does as well. 

Not my position to judge anyone. I have as much love for gay people as I have for anyone, and respect, but marriage is a religious mystery and Churches can't be forced to do something that goes against the teachings and beliefs. 

sadly, the cost of the mental health pandemic (the real pandemic in Victoria) will be far greater and more far reaching and more lethal than COVID can never be.

Also, because the people of Victoria have abandoned their freedom, they have made their bed. 

In the old days, people would fight for democracy and freedoms. Today, people are willingly surrendering their freedoms. 

I don't! 

I'm from the Middle East. Do you think we worry about seat belts in the Middle East? It's easy to get away with as well. I usually buckle it permanently and sit on top of it. To outsiders, it looks like I am wearing it when I'm not.