It's no secret this is a particularly dour time for finding socceroos who can get game time in the big 5 (France, Italy, Germany, England and Spain). In fact, from the top 50 ranked nations as measured either by world rankings or elo we are the only that didn't have a player starting for a big 5 club last round of club football.

I was curious just how unusual our performances were. So I looked at the number of players each country had start in the last round for a big 5 club and how well that correlated with the country's elo

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13uLQ9oKjmQiag9YLaKkEaIvtYGBSnKMQWRDvvyLQU8E/edit?usp=sharing

We are indeed massively overperforming at the national team level. In fact our performances predict we should have an average of 10 players starting in big 5 leagues each week. This has been a consistent overperformance over the last decade where we have had an elo that would predict between around 4 and 10 players starting each week yet probably averaged around 1

Thoughts on why this is?

The NC being started by Berger’s  tenure. 

One factor, is that in South America, the Brazilian and Argentinian domestic leagues are similar quality to the UEFA Big Five.

Brazil and Argentina would have heaps of their domestic players starting in  their domestic leagues.

In the table England and Italy have far less players starting in the UEFA big five, than Spain, France and Germany. The latter three nations all being in the UEFA Big Five too.

France may have the weakest domestic league in the UEFA Big Five, but they have the most players playing big five, and are the most successful international team over the last 25 years.

Do we punch above our weight or just around it? 

We do ok, but I can't think of a real punching-above-weight game we have won? 

Would agree that Arnie is getting a lot out of his players though

I would also argue that there is still a fair bit of inadvertent snobbery about Australia as a football nation in Europe. It even existed in Peru ,where some of  their  football media  thought we were a joke before the sudden death play off in Qatar. 

One of Aus's football journos, Adrian Dean, spends a lot of time looking at overseas fan forums where Aus footballers ply their trade. He stated Scotland's fans think Aus's A L is rubbish, and our national team is rubbish. That is despite Aussies playing in the Scottish league.

I can smugly respond ( and this is for internal consumption on this forum, not overseas fans) football fans often (with some considerable exceptions) know virtually nothing about game based football performance criteria. I'd also contend that if all the Aussies who played in Scotland, were thought to be from Argentina, Scottish fans would rate them more highly.  

Some overseas football stakeholders with considerable  insights, have rated Aus  a lot higher than their media and fans.

* Argentinians Messi, their keeper, and coach, all said Aus was extremely tough opposition at the WC. That to play high quality teams like Aus, one has to expect in the last 16 of a WC.

* The Peruvian coach, highly rated, basically admitted Arnie completely out-coached him tactically, particularly in the first half in Qatar. He found it very difficult to counter the constant rotating midfield triangle - and - they ceded far too much time and space to Mooy - who controlled the game.

* ? Cristiansen, Tech Dir of Copenhagen FC, dreaded playing Aus in the WC, because they were a far better team than most in Denmark realised. He also paid homage to Aussies who had played in Denmark. He thought Denmark only had a 50/50 chance of winning.

* Ecuadorean coach( although Ec rated a bit below Aus in FIFA rankings ATM), stated Aus overpowered them physically in  body on body duels in the first game. He said they didn't know what hit them!

It is also apparent that Aus football fans perceive Aus's football image in terms of how Euro football milieu perceives us. There is an inherent inferiority complex, because Aus male players aren't playing in the UEFA Big Five.  I prefer overachieving as a national team unit.

The greatest ignominy, would be having lots of supposedly high quality players playing high level Big Five football and the national team underachieving.

England have had to face this phenomenon for decades until Southgate, and to a lesser extent, Fabio Capello, improved their performances. English fans constantly stated international football was unimportant, until the golden age of Southgate. Spain also suffered this phenomenon prior to the  Tiki Taka Barca era, and consequent national team success.

*For talent identification - technique ( handling speed, first touch, running with the ball, striking the ball, and 1v1 defensive and attacking skills), plus athleticism and speed over the turf, are easier to identify. Talent scouts  don't have  have to be as proficient to identify them. A few of our current female players have these qualities in spades.

* Game sense, positioning on the pitch, communication, vision, mental strength, ability to work effectively  within a team game plans and be able to work effectively as part of a team unit, are far harder to identify. One needs to be inculcated into high quality football programs to be able to identify these more subtle  traits in a footballer. The likes of Irvine, Goodwin, Duke, Rowles, Mooy, Jedi, Milligan have/had  these qualities in spades.

Hrustic  has a lot of  high level technical qualities with the ball at his feet. When one looks at the second list of criteria, this is where he struggles, and is the main reason he isn't part of the current Socceroos. Arnie uses very sophisticated tactics. He has about 3-4 fornations in the same game plan - different formation, which evolves in the three  different thirds of  the pitch.

Arnie's team shapes - often in the same game:

Ball Possession Opposition - flat midfield 4-4-2. All three thirds of the pitch.

Ball Possession -
4-2-3-1 - back third of the pitch.
Defensive Midfield Triangle 4-3-3 - central third of pitch.
Attacking midfield triangle 4-3-3 - attacking third of pitch. 
2-4-4 - Penalty Box  - full backs push up high and attacking mid joins the central striker in a central position.

Jackson Irvine is integral in these evolving formations  - playing different roles in all five formation manifestations - a very high level of game sense!

These variations may be reasonably common, apart  from the rotating midfield triangle in the 4-3-3.  

 

  



 

 

ARNIE = LEGEND

over the last 9 years where we have averaged around 1 player in the big 5 we have qualified for the wc through asia 3 times, beating concacaf and conmenbol playofs, won the asian cup at home, drawn 1 game and won 2 world cup games. This set of results is what you would expect from a nation averaging around 6-10 players (last year around 10) players in the big 5 according to my analysis comparing ELO vs number of players

It is definitely better to have a team full of players not cracking the big 5 and causing upsets than having a team full of stars underachieving!


Having said that, if we do manage to get players who succeed at a higher level in club football and still work just as well as a team we could really go to the next level

Indeed, Brazil and Argentina look like they are overachieving since I don't count their domestic league which is just as good!
Spain France and Germany over the last period have all won world cups and have not only have more players crack their local domestic league, they have exported more often to other big 5 leagues

love the spreadsheet well done mate thats takes some time and analysis... respect...

I think many of our players when they go overseas also on the whole gets less chances simply because they are Australian.

You have often been an evangelist for how the nc makes for players at all levels have a unified vision for how to play together. If that is the reason why we have punched above our weight, then we could really make an impact if we also start producing better individuals who are ntc coached and tactically flexible as a cohesive unit

thanks!

I think that's part of it. Certainly a lot of managers around the world just shrug their shoulders at Australian football. Additionally, our players' direct competition in the squad is either local or from much more coveted football nations who have that better technical ability than our players. Our players aren't bad, it's just the others in the squad tend to beat the man or hit the net more often in training and maybe in games too.

Our good players have done well when they're the bigger fish in a smaller pond and turn a lot of heads and really get on side with the fans and the league as a whole. 

One other thing, Germany 4:0 aside I've never really heard any negative sentiment from non-Australian sources after a game. Respect is always gained and often a lot of surprise about the ability and implementation of a game plan. Some opponents feel left with a bloody nose of sorts and it won't be forgotten.

I aspire to be a team where opponents think 'oh no they're going to convert their chances' a bit like how Japan seen compared to 'oh we'll probably get a few bruises but we'll score more than they will.'

Very true

But these teams are all around our standard? 

respect your analysis and time, and you make good points, but to me the phrase suggests beating teams that are better - which rarely happens and never have we knocked off anyone really, really good (only one I can remember is Brazil in confeds cup - not talking about friendlies)

We are still beating teams around our level more often than we should given where our team is at on paper, denmark are also a team above out level that we've beaten and drawn against. 

If we are beating germany or brazil at a tournament then we are playing like a team that is another level above again. With so few big 5 players our weight is very low and we are punching well above it

I've got an English friend who maintains England have hardly beaten any formidable opponent in a tournament for a very long time. He includes Germany at the last Euros as an underdone team.

Sure England have beaten plenty of good sides but he's adamant any team considered bigger is where their tournaments stop. 

We won the Asian Cup by dodging some bullets. That's tournament football in a way but also there's a mini asterisk thanks to the UAE upset over Japan. 

Beating Denmark felt so great but it's funny how underdone they seemed that night. I think a lot of honest football fans can see the joy in any victory but also have that objective reflection.

At the same time I think 'that's Denmark's problem' for how they played that night. Still, I'd love to have something like Saudi vs Argentina or Morocco against a few teams last time around- on a more regular basis too so it's not seen as a fluke.

I've got a recording of Denmark 2018 and I'm shocked how much we really took it to them in the second half. Ahhh Peru. That bloody Leckie slide in. Tough day that. 

Strongly agree.

L'Equipe, the most prestigious football magazine in the world, awarded him coach of the Qatar WC. He must have been pressed by the Moroccan coach, where his  relatively modest  team came 3rd or 4th..

Australia has one of its greatest coaches in any sport, Arnie, who would be adulated anywhere else - except his home country.

Arnie has also taken on part of a Tech Dir's role with Football Aus, by coaching the Olympic team. Because of  a dearth of talented players he has fast tracked younger players through the underage program to senior level.

Effective teams negate the opposition to having 'bad games'.

Over some time we've played a lot of world class teams, and given them hard matches. France were too good for us, the  Qatar WC finalists. However, to play as effectively as we have against Peru,  Tunisia, Denmark, Argentina ( WC champs), Ecuador ( 3rd or 4th in South America), Mexico and  England, shows Aus under Arnie is a respectable team at playing international football over a sustained period. This is despite having few 'stars' playing in the UEFA Big Five.

Even though Aus was awful against Palestine in the last WCQer.

Interesting perception?

When they reached the final of the Euro Champs in 2020,  England must have defeated some decent teams on the way?

I find Grazor's table fascinating!

Thanks a bunch for taking the time to do it.

Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium and  Portugal, all have the next highest number of players playing  UEFA Big Five football with 22 - 25 players each.

The latter trio have the next highest ranked leagues in UEFA after the Big Five.  In international football Netherlands and Portugal, probably perform the best, particularly outside Europe.

I'm not sure  about Portugal, but Netherlands and Belgium have holistic systems, where pro clubs closely follow a National Curriculum and pathway with a strong connection to the national football federation. Their systems are what Football Aus aspires to emulating, but  doesn't have the money.

This tournament was one of the stronger England cases. Germany albeit underdone. Smashed Ukraine and then beat a very challenging Denmark. 

2022 lost to France. 2018 lost to Croatia, Belgium and made life difficult for themselves against Colombia.

2014, 2010 were disasters. 2012 and 2016 also just blunders. It's gotten much more promising since then though. Euro summer is another good chance. 

That's true. Albeit friendlies at least we put in a good shift. The Ecuador games were great. We had a go and they bit back but we were much better for it Bloody covid snatching our Copa America away! 

yeah fair enough. 

No they are absolutely not. 

I watch a lot of south american football. A lot of it is dire.

Interesting.
I did imagine the Argentina and Brazilian leagues to be the 6th and 7th best leagues in the world based on what others have said but never seen a game myself. I'm guessing there are few aussies who have watched a match! 

In the a league imports from the 2nd division in Brazil have compared favourably with imports with the English championship. When the expanded club world Cup happens it will be more meaningful to compare leagues in different confederations 

The top few teams are of course great - after that, it's grim. Lots of mistakes, horrible pitches, stop start matches. 

Yeah and it’s a bit of a lottery if a player who excels there will do well in the EPL