Just how much are the socceroos punching above their weight?


Just how much are the socceroos punching above their weight?

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Decentric 2 - 2 Jan 2024 4:58 PM

It has been well documented on this forum, but  Scotland haven't qualified for a WC since 1998. I think they've just qualified for the imminent UEFA Euro Champs. Again they might have had 24 years or so without qualifying even for a Euro Champs. I think I've read when they've qualified for any World Cups, they've never progressed past the group stage! The Socceroos have  qualified for the last 16 in the last five successive WC tournaments!

You are wrong again. Scotland qualified for the 2020 Euro's. That is 2 times in a row now rather than 24 years.






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Balin Trev - 30 Dec 2023 10:37 AM
soccerfoo - 30 Dec 2023 6:35 AM

It’s good old Euro snobbery saying the individual players in our squad aren’t playing in top 5 leagues - like several Japan NT players do - therefore aren’t ‘worthy’ of fifa ranking of 25 and 11th place at Wcup. Socceroos results are proof that the team does better than the individual parts look on paper

I've mentioned this unusual phenomenon to mates who don't follow football.

One of them thinks it is analogous to some Aussie wine buffs, who constantly prefer French wine, to Aus wine.
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I've had time to round off some Continental Confederations's number of Big Five players from specific nations. There are many atrocious international football teams across the world, who have heaps of  Big UEFA Big Five players. Yet their international teams underperform, or even worse, rarely play any big tournaments, for decade after decade.

Whereas it appears to me, given the fascination with Aussie Abroad, and which Aussie is doing well where,  it would be prudent if a number of Aussie UEFA adulators, should consider the following countries in Europe with plenty of Big Five Players, but they have chronic underperforming international teams. 

Last week when Grazor complied the  list of Big Five players, Aus had 0 playing!

However, consider the following:

*Austria - 12 Big Five players playing last weekend. 

When did Austria last qualify for a World Cup?   Have  they qualified for any recent UEFA Euro Champs? 12  Big Five players is one complete team of a national team  Austrian team comprising all Big Five players, but whatever the Austrian national coaching set up is, it isn't working at international level. They aren't  that good at playing asa team unit with each other, despite  what appears to be a decent youth development system to develop individual qualities of Austrian footballers.

* Scotland - 9 Big Five players playing last weekend.

It has been well documented on this forum, but  Scotland haven't qualified for a WC since 1998. I think they've just qualified for the imminent UEFA Euro Champs.  I think I've read when they've qualified for any World Cups, they've never progressed past the group stage! The Socceroos have  qualified for the last 16 in two of the last five successive WC tournaments Aus has qualified for.

* Norway -  7 Big Five players playing last weekend.

When Bert VM first coached the Socceroos, when he was experimenting I recount that Norway might have beaten us in a practice match for Russia 2018.

 However, Norway have barely qualified for any WCs or Euro Champs, for decades, with their current impressive crop of 7 Big Five players for a country of only 4 million or so.

*Czechoslovakia - 5 players and Slovakia 7 players. They used to be one country until recently.

As one country playing under Czechoslovakia, they had quite a degree of success as a  football nation. However, since they've split, they haven't qualified for many recent WCs, and I'm not sure how many Euro Champs?

* Greece - 6 Big Five players played last weekend.

Greece also has 4 big clubs, with decent ELO rankings according to Grazor ( not my specialist field). So with   Greek players playing in these Greek domestic big four clubs in Greece - AEK Athens, PAOK, Olympiakos and and Panathinaikos, plus their 6 Greek nationals who are  Big Five players, they aren't doing very well either in international football.

I know that defensive old school German coach ?, coached Greece to a Euro Champs title in 2004 ( very impressive for a country of 11 million), but what  have Greece done in the decade prior, or two decades since?

-Compare the aforementioned UEFA countries to Aus, with  0 Big Five players playing at this point in time, performing as an international team unit, playing all over the globe.
Would you prefer to have a country like Aus, punching well above its weight and outperforming all the aforementioned teams  in international football, who have a healthy number of UEFA Big Five players, and sometimes have some rich, big domestic clubs too?
Or would you prefer to be a national of the international UEFA underperformers, who have a decent number of footballers deemed to be good enough for recruitment by coaches in Big Five clubs?


There are many more countries, from other continents who have arguably underperformed in international football, and within UEFA, who have had better international success, to be analysed in some  following posts.



Edited
Last Year by Decentric 2
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mark_000au - 1 Jan 2024 12:49 AM
Decentric 2 - 31 Dec 2023 10:21 PM

Not all true. The problem is we have both we don't have stars and we def can't play together.  You watch The Palestine game do you think Irvine and Baccus can play together ? Players were struggling out there. Many players in the current team still got poor basic first touch, vision & dribbling skills. 

Palestine was the exception not the norm.  However, agree with you, Mark_000au, the Socceroos' performance against Palestine was abysmal compared to pretty well all games they've played since against UAE and Peru in the Qatar WCQ sudden death play offs.

Disagree they have basic technique issues ( handling speed, first touch, running with the ball, striking the ball and 1v1 attacking and defensive skills), but most of our South American, Asian and European opposition, are better technically than us. However, technique, athleticism and speed over the  turf are relatively easy to identify.

Where Aus excels to make  up for deficits in the three aforementioned specific game football based performance criteria - game sense, communication, football conditioning, mental strength, unity of purpose, team cohesion, organisation and tactical nous,  and having one of the best international coaches in world football, Arnie) -   Australia compensates for technical inferiority,   lower athleticism of some players and even less speed over the turf, particularly in wide areas, by being proficient in other specific game based football criteria.  

As for Baccus and Irvine not playing well as a unit in the Palestine game, IMO Irvine (out of the Palestine game a lot), Goodwin in particular, Boyle and Metcalfe, all had very poor games by their own standards. Goodwin was furious with himself at times!

To go back and have a look at the two games against Ecuador and England, Goodwin and Irvine were immense. I've just had a second look at them. Palestine was the exception, not the norm. I've just had a second look at that one too.



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Last Year by Decentric 2
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Decentric 2 - 31 Dec 2023 10:21 PM
I’m on holiday ATM and can’t access my desk top computer. I can only access my phone, which isn’t ideal for posting. 

Notwithstanding, I’ve had a comprehensive look at Grazor’s stats as to which nations have Big Five UEFA players in decent numbers. Yet they cannot play together effectively as national teams over protracted periods! 

Whereas Aus fans beat ourselves up because we can’t  produce Big Five men’s players, it would be far worse to have heaps of stars who can’t play together effectively as an international team unit. 

I’m unequivocal we play well as a team unit  because of Berger implementing a holistic coaching national system based on European powerhouses. 

In a few days when I get back I’ll post heaps of nations with a plethora of star players,  who are nowhere near as well respected as a global football entity by insightful football stakeholders as the Socceroos are. 

Not all true. The problem is we have both we don't have stars and we def can't play together.  You watch The Palestine game do you think Irvine and Baccus can play together ? Players were struggling out there. Many players in the current team still got poor basic first touch, vision & dribbling skills. 
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I’m on holiday ATM and can’t access my desk top computer. I can only access my phone, which isn’t ideal for posting. 

Notwithstanding, I’ve had a comprehensive look at Grazor’s stats as to which nations have Big Five UEFA players in decent numbers. Yet they cannot play together effectively as national teams over protracted periods! 

Whereas Aus fans beat ourselves up because we can’t  produce Big Five men’s players, it would be far worse to have heaps of stars who can’t play together effectively as an international team unit. 

I’m unequivocal we play well as a team unit  because of Berger implementing a holistic coaching national system based on European powerhouses. 

In a few days when I get back I’ll post heaps of nations with a plethora of star players,  who are nowhere near as well respected as a global football entity by insightful football stakeholders as the Socceroos are. 

LFC.
LFC.
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BT 
I don’t agree eurosnobbery has anything to do with it from my pov.
Putting aside what league our players are in or not.
How many games before koff do you sit there in confidence we’re gonna get the result ?
Have more possession ?
Shots on goal ? 
It’s not loser mentality foo  - we do punch above our weight for a non footballing nation.
Thats the fact it’s a no3/4 game here.



Love Football

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soccerfoo - 30 Dec 2023 6:35 AM
Why are the Socceroos punching above they're weight? They won it a while back, they also got to round of 16 on the recent WC, & they are 25 in the world. This loser mentality must end some time.

It’s good old Euro snobbery saying the individual players in our squad aren’t playing in top 5 leagues - like several Japan NT players do - therefore aren’t ‘worthy’ of fifa ranking of 25 and 11th place at Wcup. Socceroos results are proof that the team does better than the individual parts look on paper
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Why are the Socceroos punching above they're weight? They won it a while back, they also got to round of 16 on the recent WC, & they are 25 in the world. This loser mentality must end some time.
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Barca4Life - 29 Dec 2023 11:18 AM
grazorblade - 28 Dec 2023 7:19 PM

Im not in the loop like I used to be but did recall grassroots seasons in the NSW to be around 16 weeks a year but elite football at SAP and NPL youth level its around 40 weeks not sure if that's changed but clearly there is a gap there needs to be improved on.

I think in Japan they play and train for 52 weeks a year, but no matter the level of the pyramid they seem treat every player the same regardless of what level which is the key factor, that's make a big difference in terms of talent pool you develop as well and maybe why they have such an impressive conveyer belt of talent at all levels.
We seem to treat each layer of the talent pool differently and divert too early? Anyway its a good discussion.

Thanks same to you mate, always good chatting football on here.

that is super interesting

would love someone who knows how it is done in europe to jump in. Looking at the u13 southampton league they seem to go for only around 16 weeks a year actually
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grazorblade - 28 Dec 2023 7:19 PM
Barca4Life - 28 Dec 2023 6:43 PM

16 weeks for grassroots? That's insane

Does that number vary much from state to state?

Merry  Christmas and a happy new year

Im not in the loop like I used to be but did recall grassroots seasons in the NSW to be around 16 weeks a year but elite football at SAP and NPL youth level its around 40 weeks not sure if that's changed but clearly there is a gap there needs to be improved on.

I think in Japan they play and train for 52 weeks a year, but no matter the level of the pyramid they seem treat every player the same regardless of what level which is the key factor, that's make a big difference in terms of talent pool you develop as well and maybe why they have such an impressive conveyer belt of talent at all levels.
We seem to treat each layer of the talent pool differently and divert too early? Anyway its a good discussion.

Thanks same to you mate, always good chatting football on here.
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Barca4Life - 28 Dec 2023 6:43 PM
I’m on my holiday but It’s an interesting topic to discuss about.

For me I always feel we punch above our weight largely to our inferior playing quality, only the 2006 team I could recall we could compete but even then there was this ignorance that we can’t play football! 

But mostly we had to rely on our collectivity and strong mentality with very good coaching to overcome our technical and even game sense deficiencies. 
Physically we are always strong but we know it’s not enough to compete with the best when you need the technical and tactical aspects covered quite early on in the development.
The NC is a good base for this and it’s has helped create probably our best generation of young players in quite a long time who have come through that so we will see how this goes in the future in terms of national team success.

One thing Arnie continues to lament on is we don’t play enough football compared to the rest of the world who are always having stronger technical and game sense ability than our players.
For context there are kids that get trained in the NPL/SAP level get up to 40 weeks a year but grassroots only get 16 weeks and aleague players play some of the least amount of football over the whole AFC leagues.

How we supposed to develop the players possible if not everyone is aligned together?
There is no coincidence that Japan are levels ahead of us because from grassroots to the elite they are all aligned into developing the best talent pool for all levels and we are in opposite directions because there is no unity or clear strategy in place to achieve this.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to everyone on here! 

16 weeks for grassroots? That's insane

Does that number vary much from state to state?

Merry  Christmas and a happy new year
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I’m on my holiday but It’s an interesting topic to discuss about.

For me I always feel we punch above our weight largely to our inferior playing quality, only the 2006 team I could recall we could compete but even then there was this ignorance that we can’t play football! 

But mostly we had to rely on our collectivity and strong mentality with very good coaching to overcome our technical and even game sense deficiencies. 
Physically we are always strong but we know it’s not enough to compete with the best when you need the technical and tactical aspects covered quite early on in the development.
The NC is a good base for this and it’s has helped create probably our best generation of young players in quite a long time who have come through that so we will see how this goes in the future in terms of national team success.

One thing Arnie continues to lament on is we don’t play enough football compared to the rest of the world who are always having stronger technical and game sense ability than our players.
For context there are kids that get trained in the NPL/SAP level get up to 40 weeks a year but grassroots only get 16 weeks and aleague players play some of the least amount of football over the whole AFC leagues.

How we supposed to develop the players possible if not everyone is aligned together?
There is no coincidence that Japan are levels ahead of us because from grassroots to the elite they are all aligned into developing the best talent pool for all levels and we are in opposite directions because there is no unity or clear strategy in place to achieve this.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to everyone on here! 

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tsf - 28 Dec 2023 7:21 AM
Decentric 2 - 27 Dec 2023 8:35 AM

No they are absolutely not. 

I watch a lot of south american football. A lot of it is dire.

Yeah and it’s a bit of a lottery if a player who excels there will do well in the EPL
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grazorblade - 28 Dec 2023 7:57 AM
tsf - 28 Dec 2023 7:21 AM

Interesting.
I did imagine the Argentina and Brazilian leagues to be the 6th and 7th best leagues in the world based on what others have said but never seen a game myself. I'm guessing there are few aussies who have watched a match! 

In the a league imports from the 2nd division in Brazil have compared favourably with imports with the English championship. When the expanded club world Cup happens it will be more meaningful to compare leagues in different confederations 

The top few teams are of course great - after that, it's grim. Lots of mistakes, horrible pitches, stop start matches. 


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tsf - 28 Dec 2023 7:21 AM
Decentric 2 - 27 Dec 2023 8:35 AM

No they are absolutely not. 

I watch a lot of south american football. A lot of it is dire.

Interesting.
I did imagine the Argentina and Brazilian leagues to be the 6th and 7th best leagues in the world based on what others have said but never seen a game myself. I'm guessing there are few aussies who have watched a match! 

In the a league imports from the 2nd division in Brazil have compared favourably with imports with the English championship. When the expanded club world Cup happens it will be more meaningful to compare leagues in different confederations 
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Decentric 2 - 27 Dec 2023 8:35 AM
One factor, is that in South America, the Brazilian and Argentinian domestic leagues are similar quality to the UEFA Big Five.


No they are absolutely not. 

I watch a lot of south american football. A lot of it is dire.
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grazorblade - 27 Dec 2023 9:55 PM
tsf - 27 Dec 2023 9:13 PM

With so few big 5 players our weight is very low and we are punching well above it

yeah fair enough. 


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Decentric 2 - 27 Dec 2023 10:54 PM
johnszasz - 27 Dec 2023 10:00 PM

Effective teams negate the opposition to having 'bad games'.

Over some time we've played a lot of world class teams, and given them hard matches. France were too good for us, the  Qatar WC finalists. However, to play as effectively as we have against Peru,  Tunisia, Denmark, Argentina ( WC champs), Ecuador ( 3rd or 4th in South America), Mexico and  England, shows Aus under Arnie is a respectable team at playing international football over a sustained period. This is despite having few 'stars' playing in the UEFA Big Five.

Even though Aus was awful against Palestine in the last WCQer.



That's true. Albeit friendlies at least we put in a good shift. The Ecuador games were great. We had a go and they bit back but we were much better for it Bloody covid snatching our Copa America away! 
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Decentric 2 - 27 Dec 2023 10:57 PM
johnszasz - 27 Dec 2023 9:57 PM

Interesting perception?

When they reached the final of the Euro Champs in 2020,  England must have defeated some decent teams on the way?

This tournament was one of the stronger England cases. Germany albeit underdone. Smashed Ukraine and then beat a very challenging Denmark. 

2022 lost to France. 2018 lost to Croatia, Belgium and made life difficult for themselves against Colombia.

2014, 2010 were disasters. 2012 and 2016 also just blunders. It's gotten much more promising since then though. Euro summer is another good chance. 
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I find Grazor's table fascinating!

Thanks a bunch for taking the time to do it.

Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium and  Portugal, all have the next highest number of players playing  UEFA Big Five football with 22 - 25 players each.

The latter trio have the next highest ranked leagues in UEFA after the Big Five.  In international football Netherlands and Portugal, probably perform the best, particularly outside Europe.

I'm not sure  about Portugal, but Netherlands and Belgium have holistic systems, where pro clubs closely follow a National Curriculum and pathway with a strong connection to the national football federation. Their systems are what Football Aus aspires to emulating, but  doesn't have the money.
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johnszasz - 27 Dec 2023 9:57 PM
I've got an English friend who maintains England have hardly beaten any formidable opponent in a tournament for a very long time. He includes Germany at the last Euros as an underdone team.

Sure England have beaten plenty of good sides but he's adamant any team considered bigger is where their tournaments stop. 

We won the Asian Cup by dodging some bullets. That's tournament football in a way but also there's a mini asterisk thanks to the UAE upset over Japan. 

Interesting perception?

When they reached the final of the Euro Champs in 2020,  England must have defeated some decent teams on the way?
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johnszasz - 27 Dec 2023 10:00 PM
grazorblade - 27 Dec 2023 9:55 PM

Beating Denmark felt so great but it's funny how underdone they seemed that night. I think a lot of honest football fans can see the joy in any victory but also have that objective reflection.

At the same time I think 'that's Denmark's problem' for how they played that night. Still, I'd love to have something like Saudi vs Argentina or Morocco against a few teams last time around- on a more regular basis too so it's not seen as a fluke.

I've got a recording of Denmark 2018 and I'm shocked how much we really took it to them in the second half. Ahhh Peru. That bloody Leckie slide in. Tough day that. 

Effective teams negate the opposition to having 'bad games'.

Over some time we've played a lot of world class teams, and given them hard matches. France were too good for us, the  Qatar WC finalists. However, to play as effectively as we have against Peru,  Tunisia, Denmark, Argentina ( WC champs), Ecuador ( 3rd or 4th in South America), Mexico and  England, shows Aus under Arnie is a respectable team at playing international football over a sustained period. This is despite having few 'stars' playing in the UEFA Big Five.

Even though Aus was awful against Palestine in the last WCQer.



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Bowden - 27 Dec 2023 1:40 PM
ARNIE = LEGEND

Strongly agree.

L'Equipe, the most prestigious football magazine in the world, awarded him coach of the Qatar WC. He must have been pressed by the Moroccan coach, where his  relatively modest  team came 3rd or 4th..

Australia has one of its greatest coaches in any sport, Arnie, who would be adulated anywhere else - except his home country.

Arnie has also taken on part of a Tech Dir's role with Football Aus, by coaching the Olympic team. Because of  a dearth of talented players he has fast tracked younger players through the underage program to senior level.
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grazorblade - 27 Dec 2023 9:55 PM
tsf - 27 Dec 2023 9:13 PM

We are still beating teams around our level more often than we should given where our team is at on paper, denmark are also a team above out level that we've beaten and drawn against. 

If we are beating germany or brazil at a tournament then we are playing like a team that is another level above again. With so few big 5 players our weight is very low and we are punching well above it

Beating Denmark felt so great but it's funny how underdone they seemed that night. I think a lot of honest football fans can see the joy in any victory but also have that objective reflection.

At the same time I think 'that's Denmark's problem' for how they played that night. Still, I'd love to have something like Saudi vs Argentina or Morocco against a few teams last time around- on a more regular basis too so it's not seen as a fluke.

I've got a recording of Denmark 2018 and I'm shocked how much we really took it to them in the second half. Ahhh Peru. That bloody Leckie slide in. Tough day that. 
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I've got an English friend who maintains England have hardly beaten any formidable opponent in a tournament for a very long time. He includes Germany at the last Euros as an underdone team.

Sure England have beaten plenty of good sides but he's adamant any team considered bigger is where their tournaments stop. 

We won the Asian Cup by dodging some bullets. That's tournament football in a way but also there's a mini asterisk thanks to the UAE upset over Japan. 
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tsf - 27 Dec 2023 9:13 PM
grazorblade - 27 Dec 2023 6:12 PM

But these teams are all around our standard? 

respect your analysis and time, and you make good points, but to me the phrase suggests beating teams that are better - which rarely happens and never have we knocked off anyone really, really good (only one I can remember is Brazil in confeds cup - not talking about friendlies)

We are still beating teams around our level more often than we should given where our team is at on paper, denmark are also a team above out level that we've beaten and drawn against. 

If we are beating germany or brazil at a tournament then we are playing like a team that is another level above again. With so few big 5 players our weight is very low and we are punching well above it
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grazorblade - 27 Dec 2023 6:12 PM
tsf - 27 Dec 2023 10:54 AM

over the last 9 years where we have averaged around 1 player in the big 5 we have qualified for the wc through asia 3 times, beating concacaf and conmenbol playofs, won the asian cup at home, drawn 1 game and won 2 world cup games. This set of results is what you would expect from a nation averaging around 6-10 players (last year around 10) players in the big 5 according to my analysis comparing ELO vs number of players

But these teams are all around our standard? 

respect your analysis and time, and you make good points, but to me the phrase suggests beating teams that are better - which rarely happens and never have we knocked off anyone really, really good (only one I can remember is Brazil in confeds cup - not talking about friendlies)
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Decentric 2 - 27 Dec 2023 1:36 PM
It is also apparent that Aus football fans perceive Aus's football image in terms of how Euro football milieu perceives us. There is an inherent inferiority complex, because Aus male players aren't playing in the UEFA Big Five. 

Very true
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Midfielder - 27 Dec 2023 6:24 PM
I think many of our players when they go overseas also on the whole gets less chances simply because they are Australian.



I think that's part of it. Certainly a lot of managers around the world just shrug their shoulders at Australian football. Additionally, our players' direct competition in the squad is either local or from much more coveted football nations who have that better technical ability than our players. Our players aren't bad, it's just the others in the squad tend to beat the man or hit the net more often in training and maybe in games too.

Our good players have done well when they're the bigger fish in a smaller pond and turn a lot of heads and really get on side with the fans and the league as a whole. 

One other thing, Germany 4:0 aside I've never really heard any negative sentiment from non-Australian sources after a game. Respect is always gained and often a lot of surprise about the ability and implementation of a game plan. Some opponents feel left with a bloody nose of sorts and it won't be forgotten.

I aspire to be a team where opponents think 'oh no they're going to convert their chances' a bit like how Japan seen compared to 'oh we'll probably get a few bruises but we'll score more than they will.'
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