First let's dispel the myth that we have had a bunch of underperforming wonderkids the last 15 years. Let us look at the early career stats of kids that made it compared to kids that didn't. In both the a league and nsl era since the mid 90s there have been 3 types of players that have made it at a top level

1) players who have broken through in a 2nd tier euro club by 23. 
2) players who dominate the a league/nsl at a sufficiently young age. Now what do I mean by dominance - for a striker you want the all round game to be at least competent and at least 9-10 goals in a single season before leaving. For a striker we only have 1 example in mark viduka who was scoring nearly a goal a game before he was 19. 
3) late bloomers who reach insane heights in the a league by their mid 20s

In principle there is a 4th category of players that break through in a big 5 club by 23 but we only have had 2 of those in our history in kewell and simunic where the latter didn't play for us. So too small a sample size to draw conclusions though we might have 2 players in this category in circati and volpato where the latter might anyway do a simunic. 

Anyway, lets go through our history of players in each category and we will see a peak of players in this category just before the gg appeared as well as now. This list is incomplete and no doubt the older players have a sample bias regarding players that made it and ignores players that didn't. So any player that fits into these categories that I am missing, please let me know. To increase the sample size of historical successes I'm also including kiwis. The larger the sample size the more reliable the comparison

Early breakthrough in Europe

I could use some help with history here but as far as I can tell, we have the following players in category 1

1. Vince Grella (just, was turning 24 the year he broke through)
2. Bresciano
3. Tim Cahill
4. Emerton who is also in category 3
5. Alex Gersbach
6. Tommy Oar
7. Mat Ryan
8. Matthew Leckie
9. Tom Rogic (just, was turning 24 the year he broke through at celtic)
10. Culina (just, was turning 24 the year he broke through)
11. Hrustic  (just, was turning 24 the year he broke through)
12. Viduka
13. Aloisi
14. Brett holman
15. Jackson irvine
16. Luongo (just, was turning 24 the year he broke through in the championship)
17. Christian vieri (didn't play for us but we developed him) broke through in the seri b at u21
18. Jason Davidson broke through at eredivisie at u23.
19, Scott mcdonald broke through at u22 in scotland
20. Liberto circaci (NZ) was first choice at u22 in belgium
21. Chris wood (NZ) was first choice at u21 in the championship
21. Ersam Gulum (turkey) broke through in the turkish league at u22 and played a ton of games for besiktas
22. Vince grella broke through in seri b at 23 (was turning 24) 
23. Okon broke through in belgium at u22
24. Josh Kennedy was a buli 2 regular at u23
25. Kevin muscat (just, was turning 24 when he broke through in the english 2nd tier)
26. Skoko broke through in croatia at u22
27. Kilkenny has a career that is tricky to make sense of as he had a breakthrough season in the epl at u21 then never reached the same height. Added him late but perhaps he is the biggest disappointment of the a league era crew though didn't get much focus
28. Metcalf. Silly me he was born nov 1999 and broke through last season with 31 games in buli 2 which means he was 22/23 when breaking through

Apart from this we have Harry Kewell who broke through in the epl rather than a 2nd division at a young age, bosnich who was a regular in the epl at u23 and Simunic who just broke through in the first division before turning 24. These two players were truly exceptional even by the standards of our very best. So I'm aware of 31 players in total before the current mob and nearly all of them are our elite socceroos/other national teams as well as 2 nz players and 1 turkish player.  I'm also only including golden gen players that made it. As you might note, I've included 3 a league era players that didn't reach great heights in Gersbach, Davidson and Oar who both had great starts to their careers. So these are 3 wonderkids that didn't live to their potential but still all made a good impact for the socceroos.

Notice how few a league era players in this category there were! We wanted there to be wonderkids but sadly were a bit subjective and seeing things we wanted to see.

The fact a few wonderkids peaked early isn't a surprise, given that a pfa analysis found that 1/3rd of players who get u20 minutes in the a league are lost to the game a few years later. About a 3rd of young players inexplicably peak early - in fact oars best season in his career was as a 22 year old eredivisie player. Still it appears to be a big green flag in a career to break through in europe before 23. Note also that players who achieve this earlier tend to be better as a mob than those who achieve it later, but every player that has achieved this has done something decent for the roos with the exception of scott mcdonald and most are standouts by our standards. So which players do we have now that are achieving this?

1. Tyrese Francois (just breaking through in denmark before 24)
2. Harry souttar (just broke through in the championship before turning 24)
3. Samuel Silvera (just breaking through  in the championshi before turning 24)
4. Yazbek u22 (broke through last season)
5. Neiwenhof u23 broke through this season
6. Triantis u21 seems to be first choice on loan in the spl at a very young age
7. circati u21 and been first choice at the top of seri b and broke through last season. He could be in the freakish harry kewell category of breaking through in the big 5 before 23.
8. Volpato at u21 if we get him to play for us (I think he will since he is behind others in the italy team) is in and out of the starting spot in the seri a also putting him in that freakish category of breaking through in a 1st div league while young
9. bos has done great in the juliper league at u22
10. Genreu who played 37 games in ligue 2 at u23

Note that the current players that have achieved this are a larger group than the rest of the a league era combined with the younger players breaking through earlier. Note also that only 2 of these players were with the olyroos

I am also optimistic about kuol, toure and robertson.
- Robertson is widely believed to be the best player in league 1 this year and has time, perhaps with portsmouth. His next loan move is crucial
- Kuol was first choice for 7 games in the eredivisie before his club sacked their manager, technical director and they started parking the bus and having no wingers. He did quite well with a goal of the month and a neat little highlights package from a fan. Born in 2004 time is on his side but his next loan is vital and he looked bereft of confidence this tournament. 
- Toure was getting starts in ligue 2 in france before a big injury. Finishing was a feature of his game before the injury which he just came back from. He has come off the bench the last 2 games. Born in 2004 he has so much time on his hands to reach this green flag


Early dominance of the a league

The second green flag is dominating the league at a young enough age. Lets look at the age and year of succesful roos and how many goals they scored. Again I would love some examples of nsl era roos that achieved this but had a less notably euro career.

1. Brett emerton (winger) u21 scored 9 in 31 games
2. Robbie Kruse (winger) u23 scored 11 and in 21 games
3. Mile Sterjovski (winger) u21 scored 11 in 31 games
4. Viduka (striker) 27 goals in 27 games at u20
5. Nikita Rukavytsya (striker/winger) 10 goals in 19 games at u22

Taking note of the positions they play is important. A goal every 4 games is strong for a winger and 1 goal in 2-3 games is dominant.  However, for a striker a strong season is a goal every 2 games and dominant season is a goal every game. Note that all of them had at least 1 good season in the big 5 in their careers

What about the current mob? We have a few who have achieved this green flag

1. Riley mcgree (winger/cam) u22 scored 13 in 28 games
2. Marco Tilio (winger) u22 scored 10 goals in 31 games
3. Milanovic (winger) u23 scored 8 goals in 24 games so far
4. Brook (winger u23 scored 8 goals in 22 games so far
5. irankunda (winger u19) scored 8 in 23 games so far
6. Samuel silvera (winger u23) scored 8 in 29 games

I am also optimistic about Clayton Taylor, a u20 who has 7 goals in 24 games, Grimaldi (u21) with 5 goals, Rodriguez (u21) with 5 goals and Daniel Bennie because he first choice at u18. In CAM I am most optimistic about Bernando who had 5 goals from 16 games this season before injury and is u20, so time is on his side. For strikers I would only look at Waddingham (u19) who has 10 goals in 26 games in all comps, Max Caputo and Jovanovic are also u19 and have held starts for periods with both getting goals. I'm afraid all of them are behind viduka at the same age by a distance but well above anything we have produced in the a league era in terms of stats at the same age. So unfortunately the absolute elite attackers of the golden gen are ahead of our current mob. In any case note we have more players in this category than the rest of the a league era combined

Late bloomers

The third green flag are late bloomers. This category absolutely dominates the a league at a late age or they work their way slowly through europe, picking up huge amount of experience. Players I would put in this category are

1. Aaron mooy at u26 got 11 goals and 10 assists
2. chipperfield at u26 got 17 goals in 24 games from wing
3. Lazaridis left at u23 and took a while battle hardening in europe
4. Milos Jedinak spent ages in lower divisions of europe before breaking through in the epl as a u30
5. Tony Vidmar finally broke through at rangers at u29 after pottering around in australia, the eredvisie and fighting for game time at the rangers
6. Frank farina, hard to get stats but seems to have broken through in mid 20s for club brugge after dominating as a u24 for marconi
7. Schwarzer broke through at u27 in the epl after pottering around in lower divisions. Gks often break through later
8. Zelic broke through at u28 after a bunch of years getting game time in first divisions in the big 5
9. Tony popovic played in a lot of leagues but did peak in the epl where he managed 23 games in a season. Not a breakthrough but listing him due to his prominence
10. Robbie Slater played a ton of nsl and ligue 2 games before playing a bunch of epl games after 30
11. Tiatto's breakthrough season in europe was as an u27 player in the english 2nd tier after a ton of domestic games and he did well in the epl 
12. Tony vidmar brokethrough in the eredivisie at u26 after a ton of domestic games and ended up playing for the rangers
13. Aurelio vidmar broke through at u25 in europe after a ton of domestic games then managed a 25 game season in the la liga

Of the current mob I am optimistic of the following
1. Nisbet u24 cm with 3 goals and 15 assists in 36 games at u25
2. jackson irvine u31 in automatic promotion spot with 4 games left
3. metcalf. Scapegoated for the national team is in automatic promotion at u25 and first choice and has a great skill set. I suspect fans will warm to him when he gets climatized more
4. Luongo u31 and in auto promotion spot most of the season after pottering round lower divisions. Very tight finish
5. Cameron burgess u29 and in an autopromotion spot most of the season after pottering around lower divisions. Again a tight finish

Again we have more current potential late bloomers than the rest of the a league era combined. Having said that, potential is not reality and this should only be pencilled in.

Conclusion

I would put to those saying "we have hyped players before" to look at their early career stats objectively. When did they first break through in europe? If they did well in the a league how many goals did they get from how many games before they left?  What age were they when they achieved any of the above feat?s Keep in mind that a 3rd of players peak early, so its no surprise if a few players fade, these players are anyway replaced by the occasional late bloomer that comes from nowhere. So taking the next generation as a whole, we have, for the first time in 25 years objective reasons to be optimistic. I expect the nst will make a difference in helping kids get early minutes too as well as bringing back clubs who developed the golden gen back into the fold to some degree. So yes we had 3 poor games with a 2nd string olyroos, but look at how few of the players I lister were part of that squad and also 3 games as bad as they are, contrasted with our performance against good opponents in waff, in qatar last november and in france last summer. Yeah it hurts, but here is another fact from history
There is only one olyroos squad that failed to get a single point at the olympics between 1992 and 2004

It is the 2000 side that had
- home ground advantage
- mark viduka
- an unavailable harry kewell
- lazaridis
- skoko
-emerton
-neill
-culina
-bresciano
- grella

This mob after losing to hondurus went on to be the best we ever had. By contrast the team that made the final of a youth world cup was the worst we have ever produced. Youth players are inconsistent which is why tournament results at this age are such a poor predictor compared to club achievements. 

Fascinating reading!

Thanks for all the research, Grazor.

I thought there would have been more late developers. I'm also aware of precious talent  fading early- Chris Herd, EPL; Ursum Gulum, Turkey; probably even Ned Zelic, Paul Okon, Vince Grella, possibly through injury issues, faded early. 

 Kaz Patafta, Ben Kantarovski, Daniel Da Silva, probably never really got going or underachieved.

I think we have a new  generation of players aged 22 and under that are going to be a boom period for Aus and should continue, not because of the leagues where they play, because of vastly improved ;

technical skills,

improved movement off the ball, particularly in possession,

improved game sense,

improved ability to play possession football as a team unit. 

This is from having 10 years of coaching similar to what they would receive in Netherland, France or Spain. 

Looking at the players you mentioned

1. Chris herd's best season was in 2011/2012 where he played 19 matches u23 I didn't count this as enough to count as breaking through (he was in and out of the starting line up). That ended up being his best season though his career was ruined by injuries. After he made mistakes against peter crouch in defense he was dropped. I do not count early starts in the big 5 as a green flag unless you get a lot of games as I can't remember too many players do well from that position - dario vidosic, matthew spiranovic were others and to be fair they were all ok
2. Ursum Gulum indeed counts as he broke through in the turkish league at u22. I'll add him though he didn't play for us. He played nearly 90 games for besiktas which is excellent level
3. Zelics breakthrough season was in 1999 when he was u28 so is indeed a lat bloomer after pottering around top divisions for ages he finally got his break. That is much rarer than getting experience at a lower division to break through at the top and i wonder if his club choices delayed his break through at the highest level
4. Paul okons break through year in the nsl appears to be 93/94 and he indeed was u22 then and made it because he got to club brugge level
5. I can't believe i forgot grella! His breakthrough year in the seri b was 02/03 and he was turning 24 that year so indeed he counts in category 1
6. Kaz never had a breakthrough year either domestically or in europe
7. Kantarovski never have a breakthrough a league or euro season
8. De silva never had a breakthrough season in europe and never had a season in the a league where he has scored more than 4 goals

That was a fantastic read. Well thought outand articulated. I feel similarly. There's a lot of cause for optimism. 

thanks!

How are you defining a breakthrough season? I would have said that Zelic broke through in the early 90's (92-94) when he was playing for Borussia Dortmund. He played a significant number of games, including a UEFA Cup final, and I am guessing possibly would have played more except for injuries. So he would have been 21-23 years old.

yeah injuries complicate things and it is hard to tell whether a player is getting games because they are injured or because they are in and out. So I'm going 25 games+ for a break through season. By this metric, sainsbury's first break through season was at u30 in belgium, sarota and zullo never had a breakthrough season in europe and oars breakthrough was 2012/13 where he played 32 games in all comps

Thanks a lot. Really interesting. I suppose we're geared to get annoyed about those that don't achieve the early hype and we have a lot of later bloomers. It's true that breakthrough season means actually doing it on the pitch. It annoys me about how all these players who are just entering their careers get massively hyped, a photo shoot or two and some Nike poster. Law of averages says we won't them all succeed and better ones come through later. Alas, injuries have been cruel. Some have made stupid club decisions.

Wesolowski, Rhys Williams, Spiranovic, Lyden all played at a top level but it wasn't to be. It feels like fate that Tombides would have solved our striker issue. Cruel cruel fate, There are more but I'm a bit blank right now.

Pasquali was built up so much and is at least playing now.

We keep seeing it with players like Watts, Francois, Armenakas and even Teague. More photogenic than good at football.

Not to forget Genreau played a decent amount of Eredivisie at a very young age. He wouldn't have reached heights I guess but the Brillante treatment at Fiorentina was disgusting. I can guarantee any other player would be given at least another chance on the pitch if the training was still positive. His pre season was highly surprising and that's why they started him.

You wonder, amongst all the world talent, what did they all do to get noticed by such clubs but then to just fade away like that? I put it down to club hoarding. The FOMO. It's not good our players play themselves by going to big German club reserve teams. Getting bogged down in these crappy football farms don't help. They need to play against men. We're seeing it now with Peupion. He's not going to play very high for very long I think. I hope I'm wrong. No idea what happened at Cheltenham but he needs a 50 game EFL season to sharpen up. The majority do end up on the scrapheap across the world. On the way to the Germany friendly I met a bunch of ex Belgian youth footballers who were on tour showing young people that setbacks are a part of life. Good guys.

Going through the old squad wikis and seeing a lot of A internationals skipped certain youth international teams. The future appears a lot better and it's exciting. 

Bundesliga has been particularly bad at hoarding talent. I do wonder what happens to amini if his first season in germany he is loaned to denmark rather than rotting in the 3rd division. It seems the gap between buli 3 and buli 2 is miles bigger than the 2nd and 3rd division in england and you might as well play in the npl for all the good it does you. Armini in his prime actually did quite well in denmark and had a brief socceroo career

I think people overestimate how much of a difference that stuff makes. Like If Zach Duncan had played for German reserves teams everyone would acknowledge that as the reason for his downfall.

Yeah thats probably right. The only players to go there and rot with real runs on rhe board were mitch langerak and amini. I think they both end up slightly better if they move earlier, but probably not starting in the bundesliga better

Ben Halloran went well coming into Düsseldorf with just under 50 A League games. In hindsight he was very young. Josh Laws got our and has recovered well. Iredale grew a lot in Liga 3 last year so players around that age should aim to get a lot of minutes there. If you're playing regularly, it's not the worst place to be. 20 teams too.

Oh wow there's another! Zach Duncan geez. It's always nice how Danish clubs like our young players but they seemingly don't play all too often and are a bit of a mystery. We get them in a gold shirt and get disappointed. I see he's moved to Memphis. 

Now I remember, Pasquali's hype came from the move to Ajax. I'm sure wiki isn't entirely accurate but 17 games in 3 years for Jong Ajax at the age is disgraceful. I'm sure there was an injury there at some point. McGree to Bruges was an odd one too. Gersbach actually accumulated a number of games. Still, imagine if all these guys had invested a solid 5 seasons in the A League until age 22-24. They'd be ready for moves abroad.

Amini is an interesting one who carved out a fine career and likely benefited from that Dortmund football education. How I'd love to be a fly on the wall at Gladbach. The move to Heerenveen and Wolfsburg paid off for Iredale and an ACL came along the way too. I think a lot of the young players just need to say no to these big clubs in particular and ensure regular minutes in their growth stage to ensure a shaper base of skill rather than rotting away.

I always ask myself, is it this individual themselves and is it written in the stars that they would never succeed or did those moves ruin their young talent? Uzbekistan have a system of sorts I heard about where they aim for their strikers in particular to have played at least 100 senior league games to harden them to then call them up internationally. That is invariably the number of club games where our players get called up anyway (now that's an interesting research topic @Grazor :D ) Yet I can't help but think that served them well in ensuring players had done a lot of the tough work on the pitch. Uzbekistan now are very good and their youth teams playing together form a blueprint for the next decade.

Zach duncan is interesting, he only played 15 games tho as a u23 in denmark so doesnt hit that 1st green flag

Halloran never got past 22 games in buli 2 so also misses out on that 1st green flag. Never had a dominant a league season either so misses out on the 2nd green flag

Even tho some of the green flag players flopped, everyone of them played for the socceroos and made an impact. So the worse case scenario for green flag players is still decent.

I found 2 more in the first green flag. Amini actually broke through in denmark while turbing 24. Ryan mcgowan made first choice at the lower spl clubs at a similar age. If you squint and are really generous you could count devlin who made over 25 appeances when turning 24 if u include cup games

Thanks Grazor as always you bring some interesting reading.
Think I triggered this :) maybe not entirely but obviously due to the discussions since our Olympic fail - more so in this day and age.
Now I'm nowhere like your good self and some others reviewing history stats and data but a mier invested passionate active football player/father of 2 Snr players/a armchair critic on the sidelines and couch/attend many many games and abroad the last too many years compared to some here age wise.
TBH IMO all I keep reading is excuse's the last number of posts and next new wonder/s for 20yrs, excuse me for being harsh impatient and blunt.
Its frustrating.
Hardly expected us to make it way back in the day (Oly quali) much as well BUT today ? yes I do, why ?
Professionalism last 20yrs And many have talked the kids UP. Sure some better players were missing and low and behold Vidmar some say as well.
Now putting aside our pin up outlier HK as mentioned in the other thread lets not forget the pre and post GG was still semi Pro, you know the terrible ethnic run NSL so I think alot more kudos needs to be put towards all those players young and old bloomers making it pretty OK abroad way back in the day.
In fact one who is always never mentioned much at all is Craig Johnston (another "outlier" you could pair with HK) ! the winningest Aussie player abroad ever ! 270 games in the top flight and Cups and medals no one will ever match.
In fact I'm tickled pink many made it to pretty good league levels when I consider it spread across EPL/Div1/SerieA/B/Bundas etc......

and here we are, reading how well some have done the last 10/20yrs and the promise coming/ahead.
I sure as well hope so and will watch with baited breath.
Hardly 1 aussie player making massive headlines in a top flight league but for the good signings of Kuol + whoever else.
Irakunda talked up way too much - kudos in our league but too much chicken before the egg prove yourself abroad one day like I await Kuol.
The standout young fella imo right now the last year or so is Bos despite being played out of position at NT.
The other obvious stand out is eenie meenie minee moe Volpato - at least he's been in a big Club for a little, got some game time and looked ok and shows he's a cut above quite a few mentioned.

As for our  coaching standards nowadays, you can drill drill drill all the methods you can muster and see
technical skills,
improved movement off the ball, particularly in possession,
improved game sense,
improved ability to play possession football as a team unit. 
This is from having 10 years of coaching similar to what they would receive in Netherland, France or Spain. 

But where is the competition week in week out with so few Pro Clubs, 35/40games per season, competition for spots, competition that you lose your relegated.
Where are they tested - abroad and in Tournaments, thats the baptism of fire as recently accurred.
Sorry we're in a CUSHY BUBBLE, watching our Snrs shows were a yard behind forever and a day, are the young Gen faster/fitter and tested for all the skill/game sense/movement/and hang onto possession means jack shit if your a yard behind when pressed or counter attacking and importantly SCORE finish in BIG games.

Look forward to the banter :)

Thanks!

One of the points i want to drive home is yes we have hyped up kids before (and hey not begrudging that its one of the fun things to do as a fan) I think club output is an objective measure of whether a kid should be hyped or not and i list 3 paths players make to the top. The most common way seems to be first choice at a decent european level before 23. Also its not unusual for around a 3rd of players to not hit their potential so there is a bit of randomness involved. Most of the kids we hyped in the past we did so without any real club achievements to back it up.

As to ur assessment of the current generation i would say circatis club achievements has him leading this generation and he could be in that outlier category, albeit at cb. I dont think we have ever had a u21 player leading the seri b. Of course i would rather this generation to be led by a gun striker haha

Yep this is pretty good, good stuff Grazorblade.

Each player has a different path to build their own careers so will peak early others will peak later.

I do feel Kewell and Viduka coming through at the same time feels unique because we rarely developed world class talent before them let alone after them too.

We haven’t been a country that’s known to develop world class talent unless they are an outlier but overall we always developed good players and therefore punched our weight.

I agree, really the only 2 Aussie footballers who could be defined as world class are Kewell & Viduka. Even then they never reached their potential.

I don't think there is any counter arguments about those 2 by anyone unless they were under a rock or new dawners :) who have no idea of the past nor rate it.
Injuires screwed both more than anything and Dukes - maybe that was his full potential, as we know he was no massive mobile runner into open spaces, that kind of lazy striker but lethal.

Yep 100%.

I dont disagree with you Robbo but I think Bosnich is often hard done by by history...  

I'm talking outfield players.

Bonsnich was great until GKs were required to also be good with their feet.

Same old argument though mate...  My opinion is that you have to rate a player based on the era he was playing... in the 90s NO keeper was good with their feet :)

Yes no doubt, Like I said I was talking outfield players.
But yes Kewell Viduka and Bosnich my top 3 Australian players.

Agree wholeheartedly with this. It's not fair to diminish the careers of players based on todays standards and trends. 

Good call!

I define an outlier player who doesnt fit into those three categories as someone who is first choice in the big 5 at a very young age. He was first choice at u22!

Agree with this, Bosnich was a world class keeper at his peak. Unfortunately that peak was short due to injuries and other "concerns".

I too enjoy ice with my coke

We tend to look at our 'golden generation' with rose tinted glasses but really we were never that good. The level of competition in Europe has vastly improved so players such as Lucas Neill, David Carney would never make the EPL today and Riley Mcgree would be good enough for EPL back then. Playing for West Ham back then is not equivalent to playing for them today. The 'golden generation' was only slightly better than our team today and our depth today is much improved. We beat Japan and drew to Croatia who are not comparable to their quality today, we couldn't even beat an Italy team of 10 men, and we struggled through Asia with our disappointing performances in qualifying and asian cup. 

This is so true, the big difference is Kewell & Viduka, we don't have players of these 2 players ability in the current team & we don't have a player who can put the ball in the back of the net like Timmy Cahill.
All the other players you could mix & match & maybe some were better but not that much. Totally agree that we now have the depth, much stronger than it was during the GG time.
What we lack & what we have always lacked is players with great first touch, great technique & the ability to transfer ball from defence to attack quickly. very few Aussie players have this ability.

Pasquali may have some reason in his post but I lets look at it another way.
Are we as a NT any better than back in the so called lack of competition through the GG days ?
Nothing to do looking through rose tinted glass's but of the 2 obvious outliers and throw in Cahill as a finisher.
The rest - compared to the so called depth today will deliver no different imo, no more no less.
Playing for the Hammers sure is different today - they are mid to top table more than before whereas how many championship players are in the EPL from Fulham down on the ladder today - we have how many players in the championship today ?

We as a nation put on a strong/punch above their weight perfomance so as some here will go told you so BUT it won't raise the bar any higher for they are not any better when comparing to other NT's and up coming might I add that starting to show us up even more in the AC..
Qatar result just as 06 we marvelled and best ever then look where our NT ended up post Qatar.
Our depth, rose tinted glass's as well imo.
There are the few exceptions that at this stage young lets see when/IF they deliver next 5yrs and what the depth does actually deliver..

We in 2007 after the heroics of 2006 got knocked out at the 1/4s stage of Asian cup under Graham Arnold.
We in 2023 after heroics of 2022 got knocked out at the 1/4s stage of Asian cup under Graham Arnold.

No we have not changed, except maybe we (Aussies) underestimate Asian opposition especially at their home grounds.

The other thing around the time of 2008-2012 a certain Pep Guardiola & Barcelona led by Xavi, Inesita & Messi changed football forever with possession football which relied on high technical skill & a great first touch, he took this to Man City, to combat this some coaches ala Jurgen Klopp worked on counter attacking with midfielders that ran their guts out but also highly proficient in their technical ability & first touch to get ball at speed to a trio of brilliant attacking players, both these styles & the other styles that followed required defenders, workaholic midfielders & naturally your attacking players all your players to be technically good with the ball at their feet, something the British & Australians were not their strong points, however England with all the foreign coaches coaching the top 6 clubs, we see the English developing, but they came from a fairly high base.
Other countries like Scotland & Australia, coming from a far lower base has struggled.

Our depth now is, we have a lot more players who have a better technique than days gone by, but so has the other countries.
I give you England for example, have you seen so many players that play such exciting play like Grealish, Foden, Saka, Buckingham, Palmer Kane, Stering, Maddison & it goes on & on.

yep rest my case, you have added more that adds to my post Thanks mate :)
No we haven't underestimated our fellow opponents its more so our arrogance/mindset of the last 30+yrs towards those nations, you know we anglo we da better smarter and organised nation.
I am glad they are showing us up a damn good payback lesson actually.
We have improved having more Pro players (depth) but as mentioned so has everywhere else and some, some way better and unified compared to us might I add.
This dual comp scenario here is not the path required today and before, only as one will we improve alot more than currently having more competition for currently its capped.

I marvel at countless players of todays game but I also marvelled and admired just as many back in the 70/80's be it english spanish italian german.
All have had a great amount of skilful, talented amazing players of the decades especially seeing you named mostly attackers.

As much as I agree with you on that, I don't think they're comparable.

In 2023, we topped our group, and lost to a nation who is ranked higher/equal to us in extra time.
In 2007 it was essentially the same deal for the quarter final (although noting we defeated Japan at the World Cup a year earlier), but more importantly, we put ourselves in that position by not winning our group that we should have (which admittedly is because we lost to the team that had the fairytale run to the trophy).

Us getting knocked out in 2007, personally, is a lot more of an under achievement than getting knocked out in 2023 was.


If you want to talk real under achievements, 2019 is the one. Failed to top the group, got dragged to penalties in the round of 16, and then knocked out in the quarters to a team who, despite now becoming double Asian Champions, was the worst team at a home World Cup in between those two Asian Cup triumphs.

Agree with your take in 2019, although it was actually worse than you say because in the quarters we lost to UAE, not Qatar.

Far out, I told my wife not to cancel my eye appointment

pffffft typical Australian referee..... lol

it's just for static objects, like words and goal lines, I swear!

HAHAHAHAHAHAh

Siminic too it seems

Circati looks to be in that category. Volpato has a chance too as does irankunda but circati looks the most likely

I really want to develop another kewell or viduka. We might have an outlier player in circati tho. Defenders dont thrill fans the way attackers do but still something to be excited about

We all hope someone comes through that will be world class and play at the highest level, for that to happen everything has to fall into place for Kewell and Viduka almost everything went their way until they reach their mid 20s when injuries started to kick in.

Its alot easier for big countries who have large talent pools to have world class players simply with larger odds therefore the more talent that is developed eventually one will be world class, eg. Brazil have one of the biggest talent pools in world football and for every Neymar, vinicius jr, there will be someone playing in a lower tier like Doka playing for the Mariners in fact it will be interesting to see how many Brazilian players that are out there around the world and what level they are playing.

For smaller countries you can be lucky with 1 or 2 but I wont bet they could continue to develop world class players simply because a smaller player pool.

Of course you can look after your backyard as much as you can, but even with that I dont think its enough to develop world class players in any sport for that matter simply because the odds are so small with a small talent pool to increase the odds increasing the talent pool and the more you export then the chances will increase.

I remember eeading an analysis of this that top countries has 1000s of fulltime players (3-5k for world cup winners) and we had a couple of hundred at the time including all players overseas

I think the large player pool is a telling factor, I think they export the most players in the world or somewhere close to this.

Pim verbeek and schwarzer both highlighted this as key. Our talent pool was so small that it can be completely derailed by the occasional injury or a player not living up to potential.

The talent pool has expanded slightly but not much. Nst could double the number of both domestic and abroad players

All I can say Grazor is "Wow"  Fantastic write up and kudos to you for doing the research and articulating it all so clearly.

I am not sure I agree with your definition of "breakthrough season" or your definition of dominating Aleague or NSL (well for strikers it is an obvious result but stats dont always tell the tale of the tape for mids and defenders in my opinion) anyway, just wanted to say well done. I dont share your optimism about the improving technical attributes of our playing stock (nor do I have a clear path towards fixing it). Hyping up young players has been going on since the first caveman kicked an inflated pig bladder at a set of goalsposts and is not a uniquely Australian Soccer thing... All around the world there are these sort of discussions going ... long may it continue.

Yeah i concede the point about the metric of break through. Tricky part is you have to commit to a methodology but the further u go back the harder it is to get stats. Bresciano has assist stats in the nsl but he is the earliest player i can find even that for. I agree that it makes it hard to evaluate defenders since i only have goals and games played for older players.

Having said that, every defender that has made it seems to anyway be in category 1 or category 3

These days we collect an incredible amount of stats on passes, types of passes, xg, types of defensive actions and the ai algorithms are getting smarter. If you pay for the ones coach access you can get really good predictions if which players will start in higher leagues. Fotmob is free but is already pretty decent. If your score is 7.2 or higher you probably lose around 0.5 on your average when going to the spl, championship, buli 2, eredivisie or jupiler league but 6.7 is high enough to get decent game time and build from there. So i feel i can predict pretty well who will thrive in their first year overseas these days providing they dont aim too high too early. But sadly we dont have that data 

Also i use a hard cutoff for a break through season and a 2nd teir league. In reality more games is better, younger is better and a higher standard is better. A player getting 25 games for a bottom placed spl side in the season they turn 24 makes the cutoff as does a player who plays 38 games for a upper mid table eredivise side at 21. But the latter will likely have a much better career. Having said that, historically both players are probably going to be good enough to get at least some roos games and make an impact

I started typing a response to your comment about using modern stats and analysis to acurately predict a players development into higher leagues, remembered Dylan, got sad and then just left it.... fact is, All the numbers in the world can crunch in anyway .... mental and physical health is a roll of the dice. 

Yeah though should average out over a generation tho. Dyĺans luck was brutal rip.

If you have more counter examples that met the criteria i laid out id be curious so i can add to the database

Injuries and mental health can stop a player and some late bloomers excede all expectations. Also the best ai available to pro teams isnt available to the public u can ask some scouts for individual reports on players. However public ai is also getting better. Sofascore and fotmob are pretty good predictors compared to whoscored and sqwawka on who will make a step up. Which aussie playee has a fotmob score of 7.2 or higher and not been able to get decent game time, injuries permitting, at the next level up? (Spl, superleague, norway, belgium, buli 2 etc) jelacic is the only example im aware of so thats a pretty good predictor! Ai is getting smarter and put us all out if a job soon :D

When AI becomes cognoscente enough to know when a player is sad, or misses his mum's cooking, or just cant seem to make it through the day without wincing in pain then perhaps...
Some players respnd well to an authroatarian manager, others need to be praised and coddled.... As much as sports science and psychology has come along in massive leaps and bounds we are still talking about, often, immature human beings with all the flaws and faults that entails. Its people not robots that currently play the game, maybe one day :)
 until then, there is a lot data analytics can but guesstimate. I dont know any players fotmob score mate, never have and probably never will need it...  Have to see a player with my own eyes to tell you what I think of him or her...  

I dunno have u talked to chat gtp about missing your mum? 

Most clubs use statisticians as first observations even from trained coaches can be wildly off, overemphasizing the noticeable mistakes and underemphasizing small details tough to pick up on first watch. 

Usually to analyze a player coaches use multiple watches of a game along with stats to compliment day ro day interactions with them on the training pitch

Zelic "broke through" after the Olympic tournament in 1992 and then played in the UEFA cup final in 1996.

Trust Decentric to imply that Okon, Zelic and Grella were sort of failures.

I used a hard cutoff for a break through season. According to his wiki page, Zelic had 19 games in 92/93, same as chris herds peak which i also wouldnt count as breaking through. The season after he had 18, season after 4, then 4 again and so on until he had a season with 33 games which i count as his breakthrough season.

It's true that injuries and form are very different reasons for a lack of game time. But in the only objective thing to do is count runs on the board

Yeah, stats, stats... I took "breakthrough" to mean that after the Olympic tournament in 1992 Eddie Thompson was fielding so many offers for Zelic from big European clubs that he was playing them off against each other.