|
patjennings
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 6.7K,
Visits: 0
|
+xBecause Roberts CJ is still applying the law (see the recent DACA decision).
The Arizona special election only has the ability for the Dems to pair back one vote from 52-48.
If the Dems want to play dirty and stall, they can by running impeachment articles. Pelosi has refused to rule that out, so the Dems could jam the Senate with procedure until January (if they wanted to). That is true but already 3 GOP senators are flagging they don't want a vote until the new senate is convened in January. They are Sen.Lisa Murkowski, Sen Susan Collins and Sen. Sherrod Brown. Trump will definitely name someone If those Senators follow throw (big if) the nomination will not be heard before the election. That will definitely energise the GOP but may well conversely also energise the Democrats because of the ACA. McConnell will try to bring it on during the lame duck sittings. 1) If the GOP hold the Senate after the election and Trump wins the presidency then it will be pushed through. 2) If Biden wins but has a hostile senate then we get to see if the 3 senators stay true to their word - especially if they remain the crucial votes. 3) If Biden wins and the Dems win the Senate then I think those senators will honour their commitments.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
petszk
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 4.2K,
Visits: 0
|
+xI notice Trump is evens with Biden on Sportsbet. Looking even more likely the orange man will win again. You realise that betting odds are effected by the number of bets placed on the various outcomes? Lots of bets being placed on Trump to win will lower the odds being offered for a Trump win.
|
|
|
|
|
Burztur
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 9.1K,
Visits: 0
|
Because Roberts CJ is still applying the law (see the recent DACA decision).
The Arizona special election only has the ability for the Dems to pair back one vote from 52-48.
If the Dems want to play dirty and stall, they can by running impeachment articles. Pelosi has refused to rule that out, so the Dems could jam the Senate with procedure until January (if they wanted to).
|
|
|
|
|
paulbagzFC
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 44K,
Visits: 0
|
+xWe all know they're going to nominate someone and rush it through. Which is interesting. Why bother if they think they're gonna win? SC is already Conservative stacked, not sure why they're shitting their pants. -PB
|
|
|
|
|
patjennings
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 6.7K,
Visits: 0
|
+x+xThere is no doubt Trump has the right to nominate someone. Whether they should get confirmed now is the question. My problem though is 1) People have already started to vote 2) In 2017 O'Connell dropped the requirement for 60% of votes for a Supreme Court Justice to a simple majority. This means that it is possible, maybe even likely, that party hacks will be installed. With Sen McSally in the Senate, four GOP defections could defeat a nomination, while a tie vote could be broken by Vice President Mike Pence. That could change if McSally is beaten by Mike Kelly who could take his seat if he wins on Nov 30. i.e. the maths changes to 3 GOP defections At the moment Sen.Lisa Murkowski and Sen Susan Collins have said they will not vote to bring forward the nomination. Sen. Sherrod Brown has also said something similar in an op-ed. Kelly if elected would make it 4 with only 3 needed to defeat the nomination. I would not be surprised if after this vacancy is filled, whoever wins, that before the last year of of the next cycle that the 60% rule is put back and that that rule only be be able to overturned by a 60% majority. McConnell. I don't think the Dems will get the number of defections required. Court appointees is a core area in the GOP platform. This is just too juicy to pass up. The thing here is also Covid-19. There is more than just pro-choice/prod life issues here. The court is set to consider the future of the Affordable Care Act, which a coalition of red states are hoping to strike down — including the provision requiring insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions. If CJ Roberts (a conservative) continues as he has done before and side with the liberals this time, that 4-4 tie would leave the lower court ruling in place, which declared the law invalid. Roberts may defer the decision until the full Court is constituted. That then makes Covid-19 a major factor. By the time the election occurs more than 7 million Americans will have been diagnosed with Covid-19. Insurance companies can claim that many conditions were caused by Covid-19. That 7 million voters all have family and friends that vote as well. In other words the Supreme Court balance can also be a motivating factor for Dems this time as well.
|
|
|
|
|
patjennings
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 6.7K,
Visits: 0
|
+xAs I understand it, even if the Dems won seats on November 3rd the Senate could still pass it in a lame-duck session before the new Senators take their seats in January. If Kelly wins, because the contest is a special election to finish McCain’s term, the winner could be sworn in as soon as the results are certified i.e probably as soon as Nov 30th.
|
|
|
|
|
paladisious
|
|
Group: Moderators
Posts: 39K,
Visits: 0
|
As I understand it, even if the Dems won seats on November 3rd the Senate could still pass it in a lame-duck session before the new Senators take their seats in January.
|
|
|
|
|
Burztur
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 9.1K,
Visits: 0
|
+xThere is no doubt Trump has the right to nominate someone. Whether they should get confirmed now is the question. My problem though is 1) People have already started to vote 2) In 2017 O'Connell dropped the requirement for 60% of votes for a Supreme Court Justice to a simple majority. This means that it is possible, maybe even likely, that party hacks will be installed. With Sen McSally in the Senate, four GOP defections could defeat a nomination, while a tie vote could be broken by Vice President Mike Pence. That could change if McSally is beaten by Mike Kelly who could take his seat if he wins on Nov 30. i.e. the maths changes to 3 GOP defections At the moment Sen.Lisa Murkowski and Sen Susan Collins have said they will not vote to bring forward the nomination. Sen. Sherrod Brown has also said something similar in an op-ed. Kelly if elected would make it 4 with only 3 needed to defeat the nomination. I would not be surprised if after this vacancy is filled, whoever wins, that before the last year of of the next cycle that the 60% rule is put back and that that rule only be be able to overturned by a 60% majority. McConnell. I don't think the Dems will get the number of defections required. Court appointees is a core area in the GOP platform. This is just too juicy to pass up.
|
|
|
|
|
patjennings
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 6.7K,
Visits: 0
|
There is no doubt Trump has the right to nominate someone. Whether they should get confirmed now is the question.
My problem though is
1) People have already started to vote
2) In 2017 O'Connell dropped the requirement for 60% of votes for a Supreme Court Justice to a simple majority. This means that it is possible, maybe even likely, that party hacks will be installed.
With Sen McSally in the Senate, four GOP defections could defeat a nomination, while a tie vote could be broken by Vice President Mike Pence. That could change if McSally is beaten by Mike Kelly who could take his seat if he wins on Nov 30. i.e. the maths changes to 3 GOP defections
At the moment Sen.Lisa Murkowski and Sen Susan Collins have said they will not vote to bring forward the nomination. Sen. Sherrod Brown has also said something similar in an op-ed. Kelly if elected would make it 4 with only 3 needed to defeat the nomination.
I would not be surprised if after this vacancy is filled, whoever wins, that before the last year of of the next cycle that the 60% rule is put back and that that rule only be be able to overturned by a 60% majority.
|
|
|
|
|
Burztur
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 9.1K,
Visits: 0
|
We all know they're going to nominate someone and rush it through. Which is interesting. Why bother if they think they're gonna win?
|
|
|
|
|
Burztur
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 9.1K,
Visits: 0
|
RBG's passing has shifted the conversation again. We had economy, COVID, BLM/Law & Order. Such a crazy year.
|
|
|
|
|
Muz
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 15K,
Visits: 0
|
Lindsay Graham. "use my words against me" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kw8SSQHQitg
Member since 2008.
|
|
|
|
|
patjennings
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 6.7K,
Visits: 0
|
“I’m talking about millions of posts. Last month, I think I had 800,000 posts in one day.
“It’s not just about these 800,000, but it’s also that some posts have 20,000-30,000 likes.”
Herein is the problem.
1) How many of the posts are from bots.
2) 20,000 - 30,000 likes across a population of 330 million is nothing
3) Are the bot posts reflecting public opinion or shaping it.
There is no doubt that Trump can win. He proved that 4 years ago. The big thing this time is not Hilary's emails but the death of RBG. Which side of politics will be energised by her death and turn out to vote.
|
|
|
|
|
Muz
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 15K,
Visits: 0
|
|
|
|
|
|
johnszasz
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 28K,
Visits: 0
|
+x+x+x+x+xI notice Trump is evens with Biden on Sportsbet. Looking even more likely the orange man will win again. Does anyone seriously think that won't happen? The only thing I haven't decided on is if this is the end of democracy in the US but they're definitely on that decline. So much cronyism and gerrymandering. My team wins- This is Democracy at work* My team loses-This is the end of Democracy. * Democracy manifest Ah yes, I see that you know your judo well. What is the charge? :D :D :D
|
|
|
|
|
Burztur
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 9.1K,
Visits: 0
|
Ch 2 - Humble beginnings/inheritance and dodging the draft?
|
|
|
|
|
sydneyfc1987
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 10K,
Visits: 0
|
Ch-1 - The Deep State (and an explanation of how Donald Trump, one of America's most powerful oligarchs with connections to many of America's most powerful oligarchs, is somehow NOT part of, and works against, the deep state).
(VAR) IS NAVY BLUE
|
|
|
|
|
sydneyfc1987
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 10K,
Visits: 0
|
I would pay serious money for a Trump inspired patriotic class textbook. Would be real life satire.
(VAR) IS NAVY BLUE
|
|
|
|
|
sydneyfc1987
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 10K,
Visits: 0
|
+x+x+x+x+xI notice Trump is evens with Biden on Sportsbet. Looking even more likely the orange man will win again. Does anyone seriously think that won't happen? The only thing I haven't decided on is if this is the end of democracy in the US but they're definitely on that decline. So much cronyism and gerrymandering. My team wins- This is Democracy at work* My team loses-This is the end of Democracy. * Democracy manifest Ah yes, I see that you know your judo well. Ta ta and farewell!
(VAR) IS NAVY BLUE
|
|
|
|
|
paladisious
|
|
Group: Moderators
Posts: 39K,
Visits: 0
|
|
|
|
|
|
paulbagzFC
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 44K,
Visits: 0
|
+x+x+xIt's crazy that any one of these things would have sunk another candidate. Since 2016 America has incredibly low standards. -PB Standards have been declining long long long before then, you need to look left just as much as the right. I said nothing about left/right. Only down. -PB
|
|
|
|
|
LFC.
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 13K,
Visits: 0
|
+x+xIt's crazy that any one of these things would have sunk another candidate. Since 2016 America has incredibly low standards. -PB Standards have been declining long long long before then, you need to look left just as much as the right.
Love Football
|
|
|
|
|
paladisious
|
|
Group: Moderators
Posts: 39K,
Visits: 0
|
+x+x+x+xI notice Trump is evens with Biden on Sportsbet. Looking even more likely the orange man will win again. Does anyone seriously think that won't happen? The only thing I haven't decided on is if this is the end of democracy in the US but they're definitely on that decline. So much cronyism and gerrymandering. My team wins- This is Democracy at work* My team loses-This is the end of Democracy. * Democracy manifest Ah yes, I see that you know your judo well.
|
|
|
|
|
Captain Haddock
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 1.3K,
Visits: 0
|
+x+x+xI notice Trump is evens with Biden on Sportsbet. Looking even more likely the orange man will win again. Does anyone seriously think that won't happen? The only thing I haven't decided on is if this is the end of democracy in the US but they're definitely on that decline. So much cronyism and gerrymandering. My team wins- This is Democracy at work* My team loses-This is the end of Democracy. * Democracy manifest
There are only two intellectually honest debate tactics: (a) pointing out errors or omissions in your opponent’s facts, or (b) pointing out errors or omissions in your opponent’s logic. All other debate tactics are intellectually dishonest - John T. Reed
The Most Popular Presidential Candidate Of All Time (TM) cant go to a sports stadium in the country he presides over. Figure that one out...
|
|
|
|
|
paulbagzFC
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 44K,
Visits: 0
|
+xIt's crazy that any one of these things would have sunk another candidate. Since 2016 America has incredibly low standards. -PB
|
|
|
|
|
Burztur
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 9.1K,
Visits: 0
|
It's crazy that any one of these things would have sunk another candidate.
|
|
|
|
|
sydneyfc1987
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 10K,
Visits: 0
|
+x+xYou couldn't make this shit up... https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/14/trump-ad-asks-people-to-support-the-troops-but-it-uses-a-picture-of-russian-jets-414883The Trump Make America Great Again Committee is run by both the Republican National Committee and the campaign. An ad, made by the Trump Make America Great Again Committee, featuring silhouettes of three soldiers walking as Russian-made fighter jets fly over them. | A digital ad released by a fundraising arm of the Trump campaign on Sept. 11 calling on people to “support our troops” uses a stock photo of Russian-made fighter jets and weapons.The ad, which was made by the Trump Make America Great Again Committee, features silhouettes of three soldiers walking as a fighter jet flies over them. The ad first appeared on Sept. 8 and ran until Sept. 12.
“That’s definitely a MiG-29,” said Pierre Sprey, who helped design both the F-16 and A-10 planes for the U.S. Air Force. “I’m glad to see
it’s supporting our troops.”He noted the angle of the aircraft’s tail, the way the tail is swept far back, and the spacing of the engines, along with the tunnel between them.Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Moscow, confirmed that the planes are Russian MiG-29s, and also said the soldier on the far right in the ad carries an AK-74 assault rifle.The Trump Make America Great Again Committee is run by both the Republican National Committee and the campaign. Most of the low-dollar and digital donations raised by the committee goes to the campaign.The image in the ad is a stock photo available on Shutterstock.com with the title “Military silhouettes of soldiers and airforce against the backdrop of sunset sky.” The creator of the image, named “BPTU,” says they are based in Andorra, but did not respond to a Facebook message.The MiG-29, a twin-engine fighter jet designed in the Soviet Union that first flew in 1977, is the Russians’ mainstay fighter jet and has been sold all over the world. It was developed during the Cold War specifically to counter American F-15 and F-16s, and the U.S. even obtained a few to play the adversary in war games. The planes have recently been spotted at a Russian air base in Syria and also Libya.Russia has also exported them to a number of countries, including North Korea, Syria, India and Uzbekistan. Iran also acquired 68 of the MiG-29s at the end of the Soviet Union. In 1997, the U.S. even bought 21 “nuclear-capable” MiG-29 planes from Moldova to keep them from getting in the hands of adversaries such as Iran.The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment. The RNC declined to comment.Politicians have gotten in trouble in the past for running ads or creating content that featured Russian or other countries’ military equipment. Last October, Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.) tweeted a picture of the Russian battlecruiser Pyotr Velikiy with the comment: “Happy birthday to the US Navy. To the men and women who serve to keep our waters safe, we thank you.” His office later took the tweet down. 🤣🤣🤣 and yet his followers will somehow explain this ..ill wait for mon and rusty I don't see the big issue beyond some idiot not knowing the difference between a US or Russian fighter jet. Or am I missing something?
(VAR) IS NAVY BLUE
|
|
|
|
|
Carlito
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 28K,
Visits: 0
|
+xYou couldn't make this shit up... https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/14/trump-ad-asks-people-to-support-the-troops-but-it-uses-a-picture-of-russian-jets-414883The Trump Make America Great Again Committee is run by both the Republican National Committee and the campaign.An ad, made by the Trump Make America Great Again Committee, featuring silhouettes of three soldiers walking as Russian-made fighter jets fly over them. | A digital ad released by a fundraising arm of the Trump campaign on Sept. 11 calling on people to “support our troops” uses a stock photo of Russian-made fighter jets and weapons.The ad, which was made by the Trump Make America Great Again Committee, features silhouettes of three soldiers walking as a fighter jet flies over them. The ad first appeared on Sept. 8 and ran until Sept. 12.
“That’s definitely a MiG-29,” said Pierre Sprey, who helped design both the F-16 and A-10 planes for the U.S. Air Force. “I’m glad to see
it’s supporting our troops.”He noted the angle of the aircraft’s tail, the way the tail is swept far back, and the spacing of the engines, along with the tunnel between them.Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Moscow, confirmed that the planes are Russian MiG-29s, and also said the soldier on the far right in the ad carries an AK-74 assault rifle.The Trump Make America Great Again Committee is run by both the Republican National Committee and the campaign. Most of the low-dollar and digital donations raised by the committee goes to the campaign.The image in the ad is a stock photo available on Shutterstock.com with the title “Military silhouettes of soldiers and airforce against the backdrop of sunset sky.” The creator of the image, named “BPTU,” says they are based in Andorra, but did not respond to a Facebook message.The MiG-29, a twin-engine fighter jet designed in the Soviet Union that first flew in 1977, is the Russians’ mainstay fighter jet and has been sold all over the world. It was developed during the Cold War specifically to counter American F-15 and F-16s, and the U.S. even obtained a few to play the adversary in war games. The planes have recently been spotted at a Russian air base in Syria and also Libya.Russia has also exported them to a number of countries, including North Korea, Syria, India and Uzbekistan. Iran also acquired 68 of the MiG-29s at the end of the Soviet Union. In 1997, the U.S. even bought 21 “nuclear-capable” MiG-29 planes from Moldova to keep them from getting in the hands of adversaries such as Iran.The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment. The RNC declined to comment.Politicians have gotten in trouble in the past for running ads or creating content that featured Russian or other countries’ military equipment. Last October, Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.) tweeted a picture of the Russian battlecruiser Pyotr Velikiy with the comment: “Happy birthday to the US Navy. To the men and women who serve to keep our waters safe, we thank you.” His office later took the tweet down. 🤣🤣🤣 and yet his followers will somehow explain this ..ill wait for mon and rusty
|
|
|
|
|
paulbagzFC
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 44K,
Visits: 0
|
+xYou couldn't make this shit up... https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/14/trump-ad-asks-people-to-support-the-troops-but-it-uses-a-picture-of-russian-jets-414883The Trump Make America Great Again Committee is run by both the Republican National Committee and the campaign.An ad, made by the Trump Make America Great Again Committee, featuring silhouettes of three soldiers walking as Russian-made fighter jets fly over them. | A digital ad released by a fundraising arm of the Trump campaign on Sept. 11 calling on people to “support our troops” uses a stock photo of Russian-made fighter jets and weapons.The ad, which was made by the Trump Make America Great Again Committee, features silhouettes of three soldiers walking as a fighter jet flies over them. The ad first appeared on Sept. 8 and ran until Sept. 12.
“That’s definitely a MiG-29,” said Pierre Sprey, who helped design both the F-16 and A-10 planes for the U.S. Air Force. “I’m glad to see
it’s supporting our troops.”He noted the angle of the aircraft’s tail, the way the tail is swept far back, and the spacing of the engines, along with the tunnel between them.Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies in Moscow, confirmed that the planes are Russian MiG-29s, and also said the soldier on the far right in the ad carries an AK-74 assault rifle.The Trump Make America Great Again Committee is run by both the Republican National Committee and the campaign. Most of the low-dollar and digital donations raised by the committee goes to the campaign.The image in the ad is a stock photo available on Shutterstock.com with the title “Military silhouettes of soldiers and airforce against the backdrop of sunset sky.” The creator of the image, named “BPTU,” says they are based in Andorra, but did not respond to a Facebook message.The MiG-29, a twin-engine fighter jet designed in the Soviet Union that first flew in 1977, is the Russians’ mainstay fighter jet and has been sold all over the world. It was developed during the Cold War specifically to counter American F-15 and F-16s, and the U.S. even obtained a few to play the adversary in war games. The planes have recently been spotted at a Russian air base in Syria and also Libya.Russia has also exported them to a number of countries, including North Korea, Syria, India and Uzbekistan. Iran also acquired 68 of the MiG-29s at the end of the Soviet Union. In 1997, the U.S. even bought 21 “nuclear-capable” MiG-29 planes from Moldova to keep them from getting in the hands of adversaries such as Iran.The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment. The RNC declined to comment.Politicians have gotten in trouble in the past for running ads or creating content that featured Russian or other countries’ military equipment. Last October, Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.) tweeted a picture of the Russian battlecruiser Pyotr Velikiy with the comment: “Happy birthday to the US Navy. To the men and women who serve to keep our waters safe, we thank you.” His office later took the tweet down. Lol beat me to it -PB
|
|
|
|
|
paulbagzFC
|
|
Group: Forum Members
Posts: 44K,
Visits: 0
|
|
|
|
|