Bird in the hand or two in the bush ?

Muz's point is such an obvious one, how can anyone try and argue against it?
I just wrote on another thread:  this new Canberra franchise pays $25 million for a license, are they really going to cop relegation a few years later and sit back and watch the likes of Canberra Croatia take their place in the A-League merely because they won the NSD?
There is absolutely zero chance of that being a possibility.

Why do you think they would have a say?

Before I buy something for $25m, I'd be asking what warranty it's got

Based on that theory the ideal next two teams in will be Pyongyang United (N Korea) and Seoul FC (S Korea). What a derby - the North Korean Govt will decree sell out crowds (regardless of how many actually attend). Just like Auckland, there’s zero benefit for Australian football but at least the two Korean sides are in the same confederation.
Can’t wait for 2026 when we’ll add Beijing City and Taipei Town - the derby to end all derbies.

As Rugari said, promotion is likely to happen before relegation. FFA could also work in a clause whereby if a team is relegated, they are refunded part of their license fee. Or something akin to that. Or the top flight guarantee expires at the same time as the rest of current licenses. Or something akin to that. The bottom line is that if the A and B leagues are doing well, meeting key metrics etc, and there is great appetite for it, then P&R WILL happen. The detail of how and when isn’t particularly important at this stage.

Or they're paying the money to basically be accelerated to the top of the pyramid, without having to work their way through the lower leagues. If they then get relegated that's their own fault for not being able to put a competitive team on the park, but with a stable NSD in place it also needn't be a disaster, since they would be the most likely candidates to be promoted back up to the A-League the next season.

With an NSD about to be launched, and the presence of the PR model in the rest of the world, surely there is nobody investing in the A-League now who is not aware that PR is at least a possibility in the next few years?

The expansion model is appropriate for Canberra, Auckland and Tasmania, since none of those places presently has a club that truly represents the whole city, the way Adelaide United in the A-League or Wollongong Wolves in the NPL do. But once the A-league gets to 16 teams, it will have basically run out of expansion options (I can't see them going up to 18). At that point, if the NSD is proving successful, PR will probably become a juggernaut that can only be resisted for so long. Maybe for a couple of years more, but I'd say by the late 2020s the push will become irresistible.

There are also some upsides to PR from an APL perspective:

a) more interest in the league due to the relegation battle
b) prevents the competition from going stale by constantly having new teams enter the league
c) allows for a soft ejection of under-performing clubs (without the drama of winding them up a la NQ Fury), which is especially relevant given the failures of WU and Macarthur
d) owners will be motivated to invest more into the clubs to avoid the drop, rather than cruising into mediocrity (a la Brisbane Roar right now, and even Melbourne Victory to an extent)
e) fans of NSD clubs will take more of an interest in the A-League, if only to check out who they might be playing the following season
f) recreating European conditions (the cut-throat nature of PR), will aid with selling and recruiting players internationally, and avoid Dwight Yorke style "pub team" accusations
g) it could be a pretext for abandoning the salary cap, and allowing the bigger clubs free rein to compete in Asia

Is this enough to convince the APL owners? It's an open question at present. Remember, Silverlake now has a 1/3 stake in the league, and don't represent any club that could be relegated. Their concern is for the league itself to be as successful as possible. Along with the big clubs less in danger of actually being relegated (especially if the salary cap is abandoned), and advocacy from the FA, it might be enough to get PR over the line.

I mean, people keep saying this, but Australian football has wanted a Kiwi team in the top flight consistently since 1998. Why do you think that is?

There's no point having Tasmania Auckland Canberra and Wollongong to ensure geographical representation and then having all that torn up when p and r stars and the comp is jammed with the richer and better Sydney and Melbourne teams. (Which is likely to happen.)

Why would the APL risk that?

:P Sure but I "needed" to get the "South" reference in somehow :) 

BTW I tend to agree that Canberra is a football town and always was... I think NST representation from an existing club is a MUST and look forward to an away day there (I travel to Canberra 3-4 times a year for business as is).
I hope what the APL is trying to do doesn't kill football and any ambitions for real clubs in the area.

C'mon guys the APL and Vince Rugari are adamant that any foreign investment group willing to drop 25 million dollars into a *cough *cough football club would only be doing so for the "good of the game" 

So Trashcans statement about any investment in ACT or Auckland is about investing in participation in the Aleague in perpetuity is misleading to potential investors then? What EXACTLY is he selling them? A flip of the coin?

These two should have been the teams last expansion when there was still some momentum.

Tell me why wollongong hasn't been the best expansion option for a long time now even before Macarthur and western . A-league size rectangular stadium ready to go, reliable fan-base, attractive away trip for other A-league fans. Is it one too many NSW teams? no-one wants to stump up the license cash?

Almost certain Well v Auk will be popular and a success in the NZ football watching community. I'll wager few Aus fans are going to care about it or bother watching it tho 

Well that's the crux of the problem. They're not picking the best teams they're picking the teams that could/can stump up the cash.

It's a good point, but I think that it points towards the APL not being able to get $25m rather than the APL being able to block P&R. They do not have the power to guarantee that.

Will the fees be spread between the clubs or will it just be used to write off the debts that the clubs have to the APL because they borrowed from it to survive through the covid years with the remainder staying as working capital for the APL?

The APL was also talking about tied funding for training venue projects at one stage as well.

If it wasn't for this specific forum's #nixout bandwagon history I GENUINELY would never have given it a seconds thought.

I've liked the idea of a NZ derby for many years long before the death riders became the alpha daddies round here.

There was just no point ever saying it coz the handful of staunch #nixout crew (back to Scott21 whatever he was called) on here were so fucking loud!

To many nsw teams for me. But they should of been instead of the bulls 

If a Tasmanian franchise was set up to enter the A-League then they could expect a deal similar to the  AFL club with Government money to build their training venue, operational funding from the Government for 10 years etc which is what has happened for the Jack Jumpers in the NBL also.  Would that make the club easy pickings for the so called better and richer clubs that you referred to?

It is worth noting the response of the public to the Jack Jumpers.  Sell out crowds to most games both in Hobart, 4,200 capacity, and at the Silverdome in Launceston, 3,500 capacity, with membership not guaranteeing a seat at games and membership numbers well in excess of capacity of the venues.  As far as registered players is concerned AFL, basketball and football were similar but with the arrival of the Jack Jumpers basketball has jumped into the lead and the club's strategic plan to drive player number from 14,000 to 20,000 in the state in three years is well on track.  One local association has had a 46% increase in players and is having to spread competition games over more nights in the week to cater for the increase.  

I would expect a similar story for a Tasmania United club in the A-League but South Hobart FC could never hope to garner that effect on the game here.

This 

So are you saying you look forward to your team playing Wellington or non plussed?

If fans and clubs (across all levels) were not so fractured and with vested interests in Australia they could’ve all come together to force positive change from the games current overlords. 

Here's my thing about Wellington. They're taking up Australian opportunities.  Yes Australians can play for them but aren't we better with a club here with an academy, reserves, NPL sides and possible juniors?

That's dozens and dozens more opportunities for Australian kids vs 4 or 5.  It baffles me why people think Wellington are a good idea. If there's no other choice fine but if there is they can bugger off 

I'm looking forward to it tomorrow night that's for sure.
2nd vs 3rd(equal) on the ladder.

I don't feel more or less playing them than playing the Jets or Perth etc I watch my team play someone else.
That's it.

All I'm saying is I don't really care and the problem with the league and football in Australia has never been about a NZ team in the competition. Seriously that's all I'm saying. It doesn't boil my blood. 

As wonderful as your story is what's that got to do with the price of eggs in China?

They can still be relegated if that becomes a thing great crowds or not.

My point is if they're covering off areas geographically its unlikely they'll want to set up a system which could deliver the exact opposite.

If an existing club could raise the funds, why not just let them join? 

And the easy answer to all of that has always been having a NZ team does not take away from an Australian team. 

Ignoring P/R for a second (please just for one second) the league could always have added an 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th Australian team and still had a NZ team as the 12th, 13th,14th,15th team.

They are an extra team not one that steals one of a finite amount of spots. There is no rule the league can only have x number of teams. 

This argument was done to death on here years ago anyway. I'm not sure I can be bothered logging in anymore if the only thing discussed here outside wogs and Silverlake is a New Zealand team. Jesus

Actually, this is his last repljy

Looks like he got included in a very long dingdong you had with someone else, and he got tired of it cluttering his notifications