I cut out the data to keep it cleaner, and sorted by Ladder Position, becuase I think that's also something that needs to be taken into consideration.

Ladder position would be relative to number of wins though, so it is taken into consideration. It's more a presentation thing and seeing that Brisbane not only have by far the toughest draw in the bottom 10, but also the second hardest draw in the competition.

I was expecting a lot more of those numbers to be well over .500. I'm guessing 11 is too high for the number of interstate games. I guess it would make more sense for it to be divided by the average number of away games. I think the number of interstate games is also a key detail on the table.

This definitely illustrates the point, awesome work. But the maths side needs a little tweaking I think.

Edited by afromanGT: 9/11/2013 06:42:26 PM

Edited by afromanGT: 9/11/2013 06:44:24 PM

Ladder Position of your opponents yes, but not yourself. As you say, while we our draw is comparitively tough to a couple of other teams, when you take into account those teams all finished top 4, while we finished 12th, it shows how much more difficult our draw is.

Yeah, I agree 11 is too high, as the most trips interstate is 10. It's a good why of working it out for sure, just a couple of touchups needed. Here's the full table;


For the sake of simplicity, Freo and Sydneys draw was counted as a loss.

Yeah, as I said, it's more a presentation thing that you're looking at ladder position. Id definitely shows how disproportionate it is compared to positional rivals from last season.

Draws are counted as a 'loss' in NFL as well when calculating draw difficulty. And really we're only interested in the actual wins.

So the average number of trips interstate is 7.94. So if Y=Trips interstate/7.94 I think we'd see more numbers above .500 and it would be a better yardstick as to draw equality, if you wanted to give that a crack?

That's perfect, that's exactly how it's meant to look. You sir, are a magician. And I think we might be onto something :-k

So the closest to a "fair draw" is West Coast, followed by Adelaide.

Yeah i like it. And not just because it shows how shitty our draw is :lol:

EDIT: Should add, I also took the 'travels' from that article I posted earlier, which had a couple of stipulations. Teams like Hawks/North etc who have 'home' games interstate, count as an interstate game. GWS in Canberra doesn't though.

Edited by Funky Munky: 9/11/2013 07:23:09 PM

It'd be good if there was a way to factor in long breaks vs short breaks as well, but I think that would require too much time studying each team's individual schedule for my liking.

Definitely worth saving that spreadsheet for coming seasons though.

So Co-eff = (Y x Z)/110
Where Y = Interstate games/League average interstate games
And Z = Number of wins by teams played twice.

Personally I think it's brilliant, but I'd like to hear what other people have to say. People who didn't design a formula to fit a hypothesis rather than the hypothesis drawn from the formula :lol:

EDIT: It would be interesting to go back over the last 5 seasons or so and see which teams were consistently under .500.

Edited by afromanGT: 9/11/2013 07:58:14 PM

PNG has named their squad for IC14.

Some of the leading players selected include Gideon Simon (Richmond FC) and John James (Aspley FC). Not sure what AFL rules or IC rules are about AFL listed players actually playing, probably has never been an issue before.

Initial squad
Peter Labi (North Cairns)   
Ryan Agita (Broadbeach)   
Stanis Susuve (Coolangatta)   
Amua Pirika (Campbelltown)   
Emmaus Wartovo (Port Moresby Dockers)   
Gideon Simon (Richmond)   
John   James (Aspley)   
Jason So'ong (Coolamon)   
Jeconiah Peni (Campbelltown)
Emmanuel Tupia (Port Moresby Dockers)   
Greg Aki (Coolamon)
John Ikupu (West Coburg)   
Peter Milaura (Gulf Giants)
Stanis Agita (Broadbeach)   
Donald Barry (Coolangatta)   
Paul Phillip (Gordons Kokofas)
Theo Gavuri (Sydney Hills Eagles)
Jeffrey Namete (Taurama Suns)
Sylvester Mangaea   (Port Moresby Dockers)
Brendan Beno (Coolangatta)
Willie Asi (North Cairns)   
Michael Macca (Carnington/Linton)   
Scott Johnson (Carnington/Linton)
Chris Mong (Taurama Suns)   
Wingti Pena (University Tigers)
David Topeni (University Tigers)
Alphonse Jambafuro (Campbelltown)
Laurie Logo (University Tigers)
Clydie Pulah (University Tigers)
Elliot Takolu (Lae)   
Freddie Kalandi (Mt Hagen)   
Tony   Meli (Lae)
Freeman Keno (Lae)   
Greg   Ekari (Bomana Cats)   
Kataha Siwee (Bomana Cats)   
Luke   Savere (Bomana Cats)   
Brendan Gotuno (University Tigers)   
Ezra Gotuno (Gerehu Magpies)
Ori Nilmo (Port Moresby Dockers)   
David Stegman (Mt. Hagen)   
Richard Stegman (Mt. Hagen)
Sunny Yogomin (Gordons Kokofas)
Sam Ila (Gordons Kokofas)
David Meli (Port Moresby Dockers)

The following Academy players are also expected to attend Mosquitoes training:
Eddie Gavuri
Jackson Nawi
Josh Jesse
Peter Lavong
John Susuve
James Kembu
Hosea Wartovo
Ricky Hoikare
Gideon Hauta

Essendon confident that they won't receive infraction notices:

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-11-13/players-safe-says-little

Simon Katich joins the Giants in a player development role:

http://www.gwsgiants.com.au/news/2013-11-13/simon-katich-joins-the-giants

First ever intervarsity Australian Football competition in Europe:

http://thecollegeview.com/2013/11/06/draft-dcu-aussie-rules-club-help-to-make-european-history/

[youtube]dE-tyqD2oXo[/youtube]

Rofl

Yo, Mr Football, what's your two cents on the formula and table that Funky and I put together?

It's pretty good - I think it gives a fairly accurate assessment of the comparative draws.

It can be made more sophisticated (if anyone has the inclination), by:
1. splitting up interstate trips in two (greater than 750km, less than 750km, so that Melb teams travelling to Canberra and Tassie have a reduced travelling co-efficient, which would make Hawthorn look slightly better, for example); and
2. taking into account consecutive six day breaks - most teams can cope with one, but where you have two, or even three consecutive six day breaks, that can affect the players - you would need a formula where each consecutive six day break is worth more.

Good work.

That travel difference is going to be no different than for Sydney teams headed to Brisbane or vice versa so I don't see the point in that one.

I did think about factoring in short breaks and long breaks but in the end that was going to require too much time staring vacantly at each team's individual fixtures counting the 5, 6 and 8 day breaks.

Syd to Bris is longer than Melb to Lonnie or Canberra.
Also, how have you rated the 3 GWS games in Canberra?
I accept the day breaks are hard, but during the course of a season, it's definitely an indicator.

The Canberra games were treated the same as Melbourne teams travelling to Geelong. The teams get on a bus, etc.
In terms of the Brisbane to Syd or Melb to Launceston or Canberra, it's the same 1-1.5 hour flight for the teams.

Melb to Canb is less than one hour on a jumbo (and for GWS about 30 min)
Clearly, the Swans have an advantage over GWS by playing 11 home games in Sydney, while GWS have to travel to Canberra for 3 home games
if the opposition is from Melb, then no advantage, but if the opposition is from anywhere else, especially Perth or Brisbane, then there's definitely a travel advantage to GWS

And as such it's reflected by that team's travel coefficient counting as an "interstate" game for that team but not for GWS. I'm confused as to the problem here. Either way the interstate team has to travel further than GWS.

Because GWS travels 3 times for home games, and the Swans don't (so one difference there); and the travel is further for teams from Brisbane and Perth, so the two tier co-efficient captures that difference.

When GWS play Melbourne teams in Canberra, we would be treating the travel equal for both teams (not sure about Adelaide, touch and go).

Similarly, when Hawthorn goes to Lonnie, and plays Freo, there is a difference in travel (a big difference) - the two tiered co-efficient captures that difference, otherwise, for the moment you are treating both equally.

Edited by Mister Football: 16/11/2013 08:01:12 AM

I think you're reading too much into it. GWS or whoever the team may be get a home ground advantage which really counteracts any perceived disadvantages for the 'travel' coefficient.

But if GWS (or Hawthorn) are travelling for a home game, that's not the same as a home game.

TBF, When tallying up the 'travels' the list I used did count those as 'travels' for the 'home' teams. But not for GWS and Canberra, not sure why.

Would you call your World Cup a success or an embarrassment? Serious question.

It exists purely as a means to generate/guage interest in the sport in other countries. So I'd say a success.

Plus it's not being held in qatar, so, ya know...win/win.

Couldn't agree more on the last point.

But I disagree with the first. Would it not show the inadequcies of the sport globally.

It depends what you're comparing it too. If you're comparing it to the FIFA World Cup of course it's going to look bad, you're comparing it to the largest sport in the world. But on the other hand if you compare it to the RLWC which is also being played by 'professionals' it looks relatively good.

Tiges record a $3.3 mill profit:

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-11-19/tigers-record-massive-profit

Interesting story of Swans draftee: Aliir Aliir, first Sudanese born to be drafted to the AFL.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-11-22/cheer-cheer-aliir-aliir