National second division format announce! Expressions of interest due within a month


National second division format announce! Expressions of interest due...

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Butler99 - 17 Jul 2024 12:44 PM
Butler99 - 15 Feb 2023 9:10 AM

 
I knew that it was designed to fail. 

How exactly was it 'designed to fail'?


Member since 2008.


Edited
4 Months Ago by Munrubenmuz
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Munrubenmuz - 17 Jul 2024 1:31 PM
Butler99 - 17 Jul 2024 12:44 PM

How exactly was it 'designed to fail'?

Simple. 
Build an inflexible model that is unattainable for most clubs. Or just about all clubs from the sounds of it. 

Why wasn't the model modified to ensure it was within reach for 10-12 clubs?


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Butler99 - 10 Mar 2023 5:55 PM
bohemia - 10 Mar 2023 1:16 AM

Not negative about the concept. 
I think we all want it to succeed. 

Pretty much just questioning the viability of the expectations put on the club's to get this up and running. 
$2M + per year???

There's hope and there is wishful thinking for these clubs. 

I think most of them fall into the category of wishful thinking that these figures are workable. 

Why are these financial figures "set in stone"? 
Is it setup to ensure a full league doesn't get off the ground?
Is JJ just paying lip service?
Does FA really want a full blown second tier of football?

Questions are being asked. 
It's not negativity. 
Time will tell. 

But don't think we do not want this to happen. 


As I said here. 
I was simply asking questions. 
But no one wanted to dig deep enough to see how it could work. 
Simply Trusted the FA, JJ and the process. 

Apparently I was naysayer and being negative. 
I just gathered all the information I could and saw it was destined to fail. 
The process needed to change course. 
But it did not. And here we are. 

I hope I am wrong. 
And this gets off the ground. 



Edited
4 Months Ago by Butler99
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Butler99 - 17 Jul 2024 1:28 PM
LFC. - 17 Jul 2024 12:54 PM

What exactly are you asking here with this paragraph? 

I don't think they want an NST. period. 
And as it seems now, they can't implement a NST if they don't have viable clubs. JJ can pat himself on the back and say "I tried"  

As I said earlier, I expect FA will take back the A-league. Perhaps integrate a couple of more ambitious clubs. And move on..

Will push the need for an NST further down the road. When JJ won't be around. And this process is a distant memory...



pretty much what you have been quoting, I wasn't asking anything but saying what you have read between the tea leaves.

You sourced whatever info you could.
The criteria was inflexible and designed to fail.
The messiah planned it this way.
I still think your happy about it overall.

Seeing your posting with confidence, tell us how you see the FA taking back the AL ?




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Butler99 - 17 Jul 2024 1:28 PM
LFC. - 17 Jul 2024 12:54 PM

What exactly are you asking here with this paragraph? 

I don't think they want an NST. period. 
And as it seems now, they can't implement a NST if they don't have viable clubs. JJ can pat himself on the back and say "I tried"  

As I said earlier, I expect FA will take back the A-league. Perhaps integrate a couple of more ambitious clubs. And move on..

Will push the need for an NST further down the road. When JJ won't be around. And this process is a distant memory...



Where’s Johnson going? You seem to have inside information so you should be able to answer that question.


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LFC. - 17 Jul 2024 2:17 PM
Butler99 - 17 Jul 2024 1:28 PM

pretty much what you have been quoting, I wasn't asking anything but saying what you have read between the tea leaves.

You sourced whatever info you could.
The criteria was inflexible and designed to fail.
The messiah planned it this way.
I still think your happy about it overall.

Seeing your posting with confidence, tell us how you see the FA taking back the AL ?



I am not happy about it not getting off the ground. 

With my posts from last year I have repeatedly said I want it to happen. 
What pisses me off the most is the time wasted on this process, and people in charge at FA not doing what is possible to ensure it works. 
But clubs should've pushed hard on modifying the model. 

There is some satisfaction in knowing this all along and it finally getting to the part I said it would. (Almost there) 
But I wasn't saying it with glee. 
I was saying it as a warning. 

Once again, I hope I'm wrong. 
Hopefully it's only a bump in the road 

FA taking back the APL. 
No tv deal for standalone APL when current broadcast rights end. Will need to come back under FA. 
3 years tops. 
Edited
4 Months Ago by Butler99
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Butler99 - 17 Jul 2024 2:35 PM
LFC. - 17 Jul 2024 2:17 PM

I am not happy about it not getting off the ground. 

With my posts from last year I have repeatedly said I want it to happen. 
What pisses me off the most is the time wasted on this process, and people in charge at FA not doing what is possible to ensure it works. 
But clubs should've pushed hard on modifying the model. 

There is some satisfaction in knowing this all along and it finally getting to the part I said it would. (Almost there) 
But I wasn't saying it with glee. 
I was saying it as a warning. 

Once again, I hope I'm wrong. 
Hopefully it's only a bump in the road 

FA taking back the APL. 
No tv deal for standalone APL when current broadcast rights end. Will need to come back under FA. 
3 years tops. 

Your disdain for Football Australia, James Johnson in particular,  is apparent in all of your post, perhaps you could enlighten me as to why you feel this way.
 I find Johnson to be methodical and risk-averse, this approach means that actions and decisions take some time to be reached.
You may be right and it will all come to nought but I don’t think you can accuse him of being anything other than prudent.


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libelous - 17 Jul 2024 3:03 PM
Butler99 - 17 Jul 2024 2:35 PM

Your disdain for Football Australia, James Johnson in particular,  is apparent in all of your post, perhaps you could enlighten me as to why you feel this way.
 I find Johnson to be methodical and risk-averse, this approach means that actions and decisions take some time to be reached.
You may be right and it will all come to nought but I don’t think you can accuse him of being anything other than prudent.


Yeah im curious too. Apart from jj allegedly missing a meeting last week ive interpreted him as sincere but a bit inflexible. There seems to be other explanations

1) maybe jj saw the usa second teir and took some features there as inspiration
2) maybe the pfa put pressure for the model to be expensive as they had unrealistic wage demands
3) maybe he just was stubborn coz he thought there was no point having an nst that fell below a certain criteria. 
4) maybe even if jj doesnt want an nst now, he might have due to the fa and apl split, but now the apl want the fa at least partially back he is losing interest
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There's barely enough funds available to keep the A-league afloat its very unlikely Australia could support another professional football league.

The A-league women is an additional cost of effectively another professional league without a return on investment.

A handful of clubs in Sydney and Melbourne could sustain professional wages for a time, but for how long and again, what's the point - we may as well just make the NSWPL professional optional and any ambitious young players make their way to Sydney for a pathway to the A-league or overseas.
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Butler99 - 17 Jul 2024 2:35 PM
LFC. - 17 Jul 2024 2:17 PM

But clubs should've pushed hard on modifying the model. 

We don't know how much the models has changed since inception, given there were loose criteria outlined originally and don't know where it's at now

For example  we do know FA initially signalled Full Time Professional players, but we also know that Galatas (who keeps his cards close) has talked openly about the scenario of players at that level being better off playing part-time.
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libelous - 17 Jul 2024 3:03 PM
Butler99 - 17 Jul 2024 2:35 PM

Your disdain for Football Australia, James Johnson in particular,  is apparent in all of your post, perhaps you could enlighten me as to why you feel this way.
 I find Johnson to be methodical and risk-averse, this approach means that actions and decisions take some time to be reached.
You may be right and it will all come to nought but I don’t think you can accuse him of being anything other than prudent.


I don't have disdain for FA or JJ. 
I just didn't trust them running this process when I started seeing the expected model and lack of flexibility. 

My starting position for most of these CEO types in football/sports is extremely sceptical and people only in it for themselves. From there, my respect for them is to be earnt through actions. Not words. 

I don't start with a messiah has arrived opinion only to be disappointed. 

If this process has been scuppered and put on the backburner then my fears have been justified. If it goes ahead in 2025 then he will have my respect. 

I've seen many of these CEO types get involved in our code and other sports, only for their own benefit. DT immediately comes to mind. 
I am happy to be proven wrong with JJ. 
But the jury is still out. 
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Lupi33 - 17 Jul 2024 3:25 PM
There's barely enough funds available to keep the A-league afloat its very unlikely Australia could support another professional football league.

The NST clubs have survived 20 years in the wilderness.  Suddenly deciding they are dependant on the APL's fortunes isn't fair.

However if the FA transfer their NST budget to rescuing the Millionaires plaything, that dependancy may be created
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grazorblade - 17 Jul 2024 3:08 PM
libelous - 17 Jul 2024 3:03 PM

Yeah im curious too. Apart from jj allegedly missing a meeting last week ive interpreted him as sincere but a bit inflexible. There seems to be other explanations

1) maybe jj saw the usa second teir and took some features there as inspiration
2) maybe the pfa put pressure for the model to be expensive as they had unrealistic wage demands
3) maybe he just was stubborn coz he thought there was no point having an nst that fell below a certain criteria. 
4) maybe even if jj doesnt want an nst now, he might have due to the fa and apl split, but now the apl want the fa at least partially back he is losing interest

1. Yes. USA 2nd tier is one to look at. But I believe that didn't start fully pro. It evolved. 
2.yes. PFA would be unrealistic and demanding. JJs relationship with BB may have kept this in place. 
3. If that's the case, it should've been spelt out from day one. 
4. Possible. But the APL have been struggling for a couple of years. FA is a stakeholder, so they will know the financial plight of the APL 
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grazorblade - 17 Jul 2024 3:08 PM
libelous - 17 Jul 2024 3:03 PM

Yeah im curious too. Apart from jj allegedly missing a meeting last week ive interpreted him as sincere but a bit inflexible. There seems to be other explanations

1) maybe jj saw the usa second teir and took some features there as inspiration
2) maybe the pfa put pressure for the model to be expensive as they had unrealistic wage demands
3) maybe he just was stubborn coz he thought there was no point having an nst that fell below a certain criteria. 
4) maybe even if jj doesnt want an nst now, he might have due to the fa and apl split, but now the apl want the fa at least partially back he is losing interest

I don’t think he’s losing interest in anything that will move Australian football closer to the establishment of a pyramid but, as close followers of the game well know, many obstacles need to be overcome. I think he sees this as a challenge but is confident in his ability to achieve it.
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Butler99 - 17 Jul 2024 1:36 PM
Munrubenmuz - 17 Jul 2024 1:31 PM

Simple. 
Build an inflexible model that is unattainable for most clubs. Or just about all clubs from the sounds of it. 

Why wasn't the model modified to ensure it was within reach for 10-12 clubs?


Because where does the money come from?
It's all well and good for APL to potentially subsidise it (more) - that might even have been an option if they hadn't squandered all the money - but in the long run there has to be a balance between what the clubs put in, and what the league can put in - which would depend on sponsorship/media interest in the long run.
The criteria/model was worked on for a long time and is probably fairly realistic for a semi-pro nation-wide league.
Everything has also gotten much more expensive since this concept began life a few years ago - and the financial gap between NPL clubs and A League clubs continues to widen.
I'm only a little surprised it hasn't gotten up, but I was banking on it failing after a season or two when some clubs began to struggle.
Those who thought we could have P/R to the a league in 5 years time are in lala land - it would be a death sentence for any npl club getting promoted to the a league - especially this season (perhaps with the exception of one or two).
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Butler99 - 17 Jul 2024 3:29 PM
libelous - 17 Jul 2024 3:03 PM

I don't have disdain for FA or JJ. 
I just didn't trust them running this process when I started seeing the expected model and lack of flexibility. 

My starting position for most of these CEO types in football/sports is extremely sceptical and people only in it for themselves. From there, my respect for them is to be earnt through actions. Not words. 

I don't start with a messiah has arrived opinion only to be disappointed. 

If this process has been scuppered and put on the backburner then my fears have been justified. If it goes ahead in 2025 then he will have my respect. 

I've seen many of these CEO types get involved in our code and other sports, only for their own benefit. DT immediately comes to mind. 
I am happy to be proven wrong with JJ. 
But the jury is still out. 

What exactly has he done or not done so far that makes you so sceptical of his intentions?
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I made a reddit thread gauging a league fans opinions of the nst as well as a roar article arguing why the nsl did better at youth development (it is less data heavy than i wanted it to be to make it readable but i backed things with evidence where i could)

While the comments are kind and polite ive been struck by the remarkable bias against non a league clubs. It reminds me of the polite conversations i have had about universal health care with us republicans. People are remarkably reluctant to credit nsl with anything even though it seems fairly obvious that starting the a league with no junior teams, cutting the number of aussies starting from 154 to 42, cutting the nyl from a home and away season and severely reducing the number of youth internationals should have some effect.

On the reddit thread ive been struck by how some dont just want the fa minimum criteria with no flexibility to get it over the line,  but would rather no nst at all even with it being at the clubs expense

 I think ive radically underestimated the level of bias on the a league side of the bitter divide in football and i want to apologize for this blind spot on my behalf!
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Butler99 - 17 Jul 2024 3:29 PM
libelous - 17 Jul 2024 3:03 PM

I don't have disdain for FA or JJ. 
I just didn't trust them running this process when I started seeing the expected model and lack of flexibility. 

My starting position for most of these CEO types in football/sports is extremely sceptical and people only in it for themselves. From there, my respect for them is to be earnt through actions. Not words. 

I don't start with a messiah has arrived opinion only to be disappointed. 

If this process has been scuppered and put on the backburner then my fears have been justified. If it goes ahead in 2025 then he will have my respect. 

I've seen many of these CEO types get involved in our code and other sports, only for their own benefit. DT immediately comes to mind. 
I am happy to be proven wrong with JJ. 
But the jury is still out. 

Perfectly reasonable position to take and you have every right to be sceptical.... I agree the jury is well and truly out... lets wait till something comes from FA though before we jump on every APL shill's "breaking news story" though eh?
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It's to political for me I'm staying out of this 
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libelous - 17 Jul 2024 2:19 PM
Butler99 - 17 Jul 2024 1:28 PM

Where’s Johnson going? You seem to have inside information so you should be able to answer that question.


There was some sort of rumour a year or two ago that someone wanted to poach him/heading back to FIFA in Europe. Don't know if this is the same thing Butler is talking about.

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Monoethnic Social Club - 17 Jul 2024 4:15 PM
Butler99 - 17 Jul 2024 3:29 PM

Perfectly reasonable position to take and you have every right to be sceptical.... I agree the jury is well and truly out... lets wait till something comes from FA though before we jump on every APL shill's "breaking news story" though eh?

Yes. 
Indeed. 
Eagerly awaiting comment from JJ on this.  
A statement needs to be made. 

I fear, The APL fan boys will have their tails between their legs in the not too distant future. 
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Lupi33 - 17 Jul 2024 3:25 PM
There's barely enough funds available to keep the A-league afloat its very unlikely Australia could support another professional football league.

The A-league women is an additional cost of effectively another professional league without a return on investment.

A handful of clubs in Sydney and Melbourne could sustain professional wages for a time, but for how long and again, what's the point - we may as well just make the NSWPL professional optional and any ambitious young players make their way to Sydney for a pathway to the A-league or overseas.

Funds?  The Championship clubs just need exactly $1 more in reveniew per year than they spend to stay in the black.... Where not talking failing APL franchises here.... 
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Butler99 - 17 Jul 2024 4:23 PM
Monoethnic Social Club - 17 Jul 2024 4:15 PM

Yes. 
Indeed. 
Eagerly awaiting comment from JJ on this.  
A statement needs to be made. 

I fear, The APL fan boys will have their tails between their legs in the not too distant future. 

Whats your prediction regarding the apl?
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Butler99 - 17 Jul 2024 3:34 PM
grazorblade - 17 Jul 2024 3:08 PM

1. Yes. USA 2nd tier is one to look at. But I believe that didn't start fully pro. It evolved. 
2.yes. PFA would be unrealistic and demanding. JJs relationship with BB may have kept this in place. 
3. If that's the case, it should've been spelt out from day one. 
4. Possible. But the APL have been struggling for a couple of years. FA is a stakeholder, so they will know the financial plight of the APL 

Im pretty sure he did mate... A nationwide club licensing standard is one of the core XI principles they have been going on about for ages isnt it?
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RoyalDave - 17 Jul 2024 3:45 PM
Butler99 - 17 Jul 2024 1:36 PM

Because where does the money come from?
It's all well and good for APL to potentially subsidise it (more) - that might even have been an option if they hadn't squandered all the money - but in the long run there has to be a balance between what the clubs put in, and what the league can put in - which would depend on sponsorship/media interest in the long run.
The criteria/model was worked on for a long time and is probably fairly realistic for a semi-pro nation-wide league.
Everything has also gotten much more expensive since this concept began life a few years ago - and the financial gap between NPL clubs and A League clubs continues to widen.
I'm only a little surprised it hasn't gotten up, but I was banking on it failing after a season or two when some clubs began to struggle.
Those who thought we could have P/R to the a league in 5 years time are in lala land - it would be a death sentence for any npl club getting promoted to the a league - especially this season (perhaps with the exception of one or two).

There is NO pro/rel to Aleague and never has it been on the table... Financial modelling and criteria where laid out in November last year so not sure what has changed since then economically in your view?
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Monoethnic Social Club - 17 Jul 2024 4:28 PM
Butler99 - 17 Jul 2024 3:34 PM

Im pretty sure he did mate... A nationwide club licensing standard is one of the core XI principles they have been going on about for ages isnt it?

Im curious how the us second teir started? If we imitated their model heavily it would explain some of the decisions. Did they have some licensing standard
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grazorblade - 17 Jul 2024 4:05 PM
I made a reddit thread gauging a league fans opinions of the nst as well as a roar article arguing why the nsl did better at youth development (it is less data heavy than i wanted it to be to make it readable but i backed things with evidence where i could)

While the comments are kind and polite ive been struck by the remarkable bias against non a league clubs. It reminds me of the polite conversations i have had about universal health care with us republicans. People are remarkably reluctant to credit nsl with anything even though it seems fairly obvious that starting the a league with no junior teams, cutting the number of aussies starting from 154 to 42, cutting the nyl from a home and away season and severely reducing the number of youth internationals should have some effect.

On the reddit thread ive been struck by how some dont just want the fa minimum criteria with no flexibility to get it over the line,  but would rather no nst at all even with it being at the clubs expense

 I think ive radically underestimated the level of bias on the a league side of the bitter divide in football and i want to apologize for this blind spot on my behalf!

Apology accepted...... :P
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Melbcityguy - 17 Jul 2024 4:20 PM
It's to political for me I'm staying out of this 

??? Where is the politics mate?
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Butler99 - 17 Jul 2024 4:23 PM
Monoethnic Social Club - 17 Jul 2024 4:15 PM

Yes. 
Indeed. 
Eagerly awaiting comment from JJ on this.  
A statement needs to be made. 

I fear, The APL fan boys will have their tails between their legs in the not too distant future. 

From your lips to God's ears.... hahahahahaahahaahahah

Apparently there is a meeting on tomorrow, lets hope for some decent news after that although I have been told not to expect anything till August.... 

Or we can all lose our heads about the inevitable next Vince Rugari "APL invented Pro relegation and is expanding by 6 clubs" article. hahahahaha
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Monoethnic Social Club - 17 Jul 2024 4:34 PM
grazorblade - 17 Jul 2024 4:05 PM

Apology accepted...... :P

Thanks mate if i visit melbpurne again lets go to a south melbourne game ;)
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